OK, so I'm starting to think this overall market really is trash canned sooner rather than later, but we'll see. AAPL earnings are key for the tech sector. I really have no feel for it. Pure guess is AAPL is down post earnings. But, that's PURE guess and I would not play it either way. More than likely its $140s or $200s. If it was closer to options expiration I'd recommend playing a straddle but it's not, so will probably just sit on the sidelines.
Watch the solars here, they are WAY overbought and the fact that FSLR couldn't hold $300s could be very telling if we do pull in. Also, it may or may not mean anything but historically when a sickly hot sector starts getting IPOs the sector is peaking. The AGs have been so hot for so long, could this be the time for a nice pull back? We'll see soon enough indeed.
I'm basically trying to just trade intraday here, its too choppy to start holding a ton of stuff overnight.
Watching Suns Spurs Game 2. I never saw a team that had so much talent look as bad as the Suns do vs. this team. Wow.
Let's trade like we mean it tomorrow and see if we can rock da kasbah!
And, yes, more info on Options and June seminar soon! Waxie@trendfund.com for more info if you have not sent an email yet.
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
The WAXIE and TINY SHOWWW coming soon!!!
Almost forgot!
Time is running out for you to sign up for the Waxie & Tiny show in NJ mid-June!
1 week LIVE trading and coaching. And, a money back guarantee to end all money back guarantees!
You are guaranteed to make money, or we'll refund most of your seminar costs!
How's that for putting our money where our mouth's are!
If you have any interest, please email - debbie@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you some of the info so you can make an informed decision.
In the meantime, happy trading Tuesday!
Below is a link to see some info, or just email us and we'll provide all the info right away!
RULE and see ya live soon!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1040222&CFID=812564&CFTOKEN=19657008
Time is running out for you to sign up for the Waxie & Tiny show in NJ mid-June!
1 week LIVE trading and coaching. And, a money back guarantee to end all money back guarantees!
You are guaranteed to make money, or we'll refund most of your seminar costs!
How's that for putting our money where our mouth's are!
If you have any interest, please email - debbie@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you some of the info so you can make an informed decision.
In the meantime, happy trading Tuesday!
Below is a link to see some info, or just email us and we'll provide all the info right away!
RULE and see ya live soon!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1040222&CFID=812564&CFTOKEN=19657008
Ole MOMO and the traders lament...
It's earnings season in a momentum based market, so what do ya do?
Buy the MOMOOOOOOO, baby, buy da momo!
I mentioned AAPL last night here. BIDU, FSLR, and all the metal stocks are FLYING into earnings.
FSLR should see $320s into earnings. We got the V call options today early and we sold 1/3rd already for better than a 25% gain! SUUUUUUWEEET!
If you pick your spots here in this market and forget about the overall market daily gyrations you should do VERY well. Of course you'll do even better if you're in our chat room, so you should join us for a trial run if you haven't already. We are indeed kicking butt, I don't remember when the calls have been hotter than they are now. Well, ok, maybe back in 1999!
This market is a GREAT traders market and it's only going to get BETTER. It's interesting, does anyone think that anyone but traders and a minority of investors are making money in this market? Yeah, if you own the hottest sectors, the Ags, the Solars, yeah, you are rocking. Otherwise you're just treading water or worse more than likely cause for every winner you have you probably have a loser to balance it out.
We called ICO today at $8.40s, it was $9.30s after hours. Stock reports earnings Wednesday after the close it appears, stock looks like it wants to test $10.00 into that, or higher. Cheap coal stock, I had to do ittttttt!
Doubt we hold it over earnings, but it sure looked like a good setup INTO them and we took the trade. The options action on the stock showed some nice volume and again, its in a very hot sector and its a real company and its under $10, you figure it out!
In the meantime let's see what shakes here. The banks are in trouble, folks. Several are going to go under. I still like SOV to see under $5 sooner rather than later. I think best case for it is that it gets same type of take UNDER deal as WM and others have gotten. And, I still love C short to below $10 this year or within the next 12 months latest.
I would not be an investor here. I think we still may get my High of Year target, but we'll chop around now for a while and see what shakes. Market is trying to figure out if we're really at a "bottom" (we're not) or if we're gonna "retest the lows". We won't, we'll break them at some pt this year more than likely. It's so silly, really. Who cares? If you're in the financials you're crushed and if you're in the hot sectors you're elated. This is a split market, folks, it means you have to pick your spots and not get too invested in what you're doing for more than a short period. Sorry, the days of buy and hold are over if you want to make a real return on investment.
Today we have a VERY red hot IPO - IPI, a Potash stock. Booyah talked about it ad infinitum on his show today after hours and thus it'll be even hotter. SOMETIMES when you get a very hot IPO in a very hot sector it marks a near term top. Will it this time? I doubt it, but we'll see. Reality is, I am NOT in the camp that there is a commodity bubble. I think the US stock market is in much more of a bubble, and in fact I would argue that the BANKING sector and BROKER sectors are in a BUBBLE!
A bubble implies overvalued, right? Well, everyone is going to need to eat and build and grow. There are more and more people on the planet, we have shortages everywhere. Sorry to inform but there isn't a commodity bubble. It'll pull back at some pt, but this is like Solient Green. Unless we start to eat dead people, unfortunately there is going to be a very big food problem around the globe. It's amazing to me that no one deals with that issue but they pass a gazillion initiatives to save overpriced homes, many owned by richer than most people, and they all worry so much about the price of oil, but very little is mentioned about a world food shortage!
That's most unfortunate, don't ya think? And, frankly rather sad commentary on our priorities.
If I was in charge?
BAN ethanol production using food products (corn/soy). I'd raise the price of gas to $7 to $10 a gallon NOW and make it less worthwhile for most people unless they absolutely have to drive, to drive.
If the government then wants to really help the people who need the help, they can offer a subsiduary via a gas credit. If there is a big cutback in driving then much less will be used and the Middle Eastern countries that export oil to us would be forced to cut prices.
The gas credit money would not cost taxpayers anything, nor the government. It would come via a kickback from the oil companies/gas companies back to the government. That money could be closely monitored by a REAL non-political oversee committee so that the money doesn't end up in anyone's pocket, other than where it's supposed to go.
There are, in my opinion, a lot of creative ways for the govt to handle these kinds of issues. Yet we sit idly by and watch oil go up every freakin' day and go "oh, we can't do a thing about it, it's all because the dollar is weak!"
Ah, no, sorry, its because you are making it possible for the producing nations to do whatever they want, instead of taking the "power" away from them. The buyer should always name the price, that's how our stock market works, that's how ANY market works. If you make it a lot more expensive to drive then you will have less drivers and you will then have less of a need for the oil (It's oil, not gas, sorry,it's late!)
But, hey, what do I know? Oh, yeah, another benefit is that you'd have less green house gas effects which would help with global warming tremendously which would help in terms of crop growth which in turn would help quality of life.
It's really scary that no one seems to really have a clue. Maybe I don't either, but it would be nice to here someone come up with something outside the box for once.
The single dumbest idea our government has had in the last decade is ETHANOL. It hurts us in so many ways its absurd, yet the government still talks about it at times as though its part of a viable plan to curn oil consumption. All it really does is consume FOOD that could be used to help feed our poor, and help us contribute to the world around us and perhaps go back to truly being the "good guys" that people respect, not fear.
But, hey, I'm just a trader, so I'm sure my ideas are dumber than the door nails that stick me in the head everytime I hear certain things on CNBC or other media.
See ya in the am, let's rock! Futures are DOWN as of now, about 30 pts on the DOW and smaller % wise on Nasdaq. We shall see what we shall seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Feel free to post comments, folks. I'm lonely!
Buy the MOMOOOOOOO, baby, buy da momo!
I mentioned AAPL last night here. BIDU, FSLR, and all the metal stocks are FLYING into earnings.
FSLR should see $320s into earnings. We got the V call options today early and we sold 1/3rd already for better than a 25% gain! SUUUUUUWEEET!
If you pick your spots here in this market and forget about the overall market daily gyrations you should do VERY well. Of course you'll do even better if you're in our chat room, so you should join us for a trial run if you haven't already. We are indeed kicking butt, I don't remember when the calls have been hotter than they are now. Well, ok, maybe back in 1999!
This market is a GREAT traders market and it's only going to get BETTER. It's interesting, does anyone think that anyone but traders and a minority of investors are making money in this market? Yeah, if you own the hottest sectors, the Ags, the Solars, yeah, you are rocking. Otherwise you're just treading water or worse more than likely cause for every winner you have you probably have a loser to balance it out.
We called ICO today at $8.40s, it was $9.30s after hours. Stock reports earnings Wednesday after the close it appears, stock looks like it wants to test $10.00 into that, or higher. Cheap coal stock, I had to do ittttttt!
Doubt we hold it over earnings, but it sure looked like a good setup INTO them and we took the trade. The options action on the stock showed some nice volume and again, its in a very hot sector and its a real company and its under $10, you figure it out!
In the meantime let's see what shakes here. The banks are in trouble, folks. Several are going to go under. I still like SOV to see under $5 sooner rather than later. I think best case for it is that it gets same type of take UNDER deal as WM and others have gotten. And, I still love C short to below $10 this year or within the next 12 months latest.
I would not be an investor here. I think we still may get my High of Year target, but we'll chop around now for a while and see what shakes. Market is trying to figure out if we're really at a "bottom" (we're not) or if we're gonna "retest the lows". We won't, we'll break them at some pt this year more than likely. It's so silly, really. Who cares? If you're in the financials you're crushed and if you're in the hot sectors you're elated. This is a split market, folks, it means you have to pick your spots and not get too invested in what you're doing for more than a short period. Sorry, the days of buy and hold are over if you want to make a real return on investment.
Today we have a VERY red hot IPO - IPI, a Potash stock. Booyah talked about it ad infinitum on his show today after hours and thus it'll be even hotter. SOMETIMES when you get a very hot IPO in a very hot sector it marks a near term top. Will it this time? I doubt it, but we'll see. Reality is, I am NOT in the camp that there is a commodity bubble. I think the US stock market is in much more of a bubble, and in fact I would argue that the BANKING sector and BROKER sectors are in a BUBBLE!
A bubble implies overvalued, right? Well, everyone is going to need to eat and build and grow. There are more and more people on the planet, we have shortages everywhere. Sorry to inform but there isn't a commodity bubble. It'll pull back at some pt, but this is like Solient Green. Unless we start to eat dead people, unfortunately there is going to be a very big food problem around the globe. It's amazing to me that no one deals with that issue but they pass a gazillion initiatives to save overpriced homes, many owned by richer than most people, and they all worry so much about the price of oil, but very little is mentioned about a world food shortage!
That's most unfortunate, don't ya think? And, frankly rather sad commentary on our priorities.
If I was in charge?
BAN ethanol production using food products (corn/soy). I'd raise the price of gas to $7 to $10 a gallon NOW and make it less worthwhile for most people unless they absolutely have to drive, to drive.
If the government then wants to really help the people who need the help, they can offer a subsiduary via a gas credit. If there is a big cutback in driving then much less will be used and the Middle Eastern countries that export oil to us would be forced to cut prices.
The gas credit money would not cost taxpayers anything, nor the government. It would come via a kickback from the oil companies/gas companies back to the government. That money could be closely monitored by a REAL non-political oversee committee so that the money doesn't end up in anyone's pocket, other than where it's supposed to go.
There are, in my opinion, a lot of creative ways for the govt to handle these kinds of issues. Yet we sit idly by and watch oil go up every freakin' day and go "oh, we can't do a thing about it, it's all because the dollar is weak!"
Ah, no, sorry, its because you are making it possible for the producing nations to do whatever they want, instead of taking the "power" away from them. The buyer should always name the price, that's how our stock market works, that's how ANY market works. If you make it a lot more expensive to drive then you will have less drivers and you will then have less of a need for the oil (It's oil, not gas, sorry,it's late!)
But, hey, what do I know? Oh, yeah, another benefit is that you'd have less green house gas effects which would help with global warming tremendously which would help in terms of crop growth which in turn would help quality of life.
It's really scary that no one seems to really have a clue. Maybe I don't either, but it would be nice to here someone come up with something outside the box for once.
The single dumbest idea our government has had in the last decade is ETHANOL. It hurts us in so many ways its absurd, yet the government still talks about it at times as though its part of a viable plan to curn oil consumption. All it really does is consume FOOD that could be used to help feed our poor, and help us contribute to the world around us and perhaps go back to truly being the "good guys" that people respect, not fear.
But, hey, I'm just a trader, so I'm sure my ideas are dumber than the door nails that stick me in the head everytime I hear certain things on CNBC or other media.
See ya in the am, let's rock! Futures are DOWN as of now, about 30 pts on the DOW and smaller % wise on Nasdaq. We shall see what we shall seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Feel free to post comments, folks. I'm lonely!
Sunday, April 20, 2008
OH MONDAY MONDAY, tra la, la di daaaaaa...
So, what now Brown cow? I think we have to assume that the market should hold up reasonably well early this week. There isn't anything mind blowing on tap on any calanders that I can see that should derail us, and with AAPL and MSFT and YHOO on tap tech wise, I mean, does anyone really want to sell AAPL before earnings and risk missing the same $90 move that GOOG had? You have to assume not until proven otherwise. We should be choppy early as the market tries to figure out if the rally is overdone or if we really have "bottomed" near term. I still think we could see Highs of the Year shortly, but I think its unlikely the rally lasts more than that, if it gets there. I'm hoping the financials get another move higher, I'd love to be able to reenter some shorts when FNM is $30s and C is $30 as well. They will get overbought very quickly if they do get another move higher.
I would suggest keeping your powder dry here. I want to be mostly cash so I can jump into and out of positions here. This is a TRADERS MARKET (they usually are) and I want to make sure I'm not overcommitted one way or another and put my capital at risk. Friday was a SICK day, folks! SICK!
And, you all read it here, I NAILED the day. In fact, OPTIONS TRADER service had 3, count 'em THREE more than DOUBLES intraday. Yes, you read that correctly and that's no BS, 3 option calls that more than doubled during the day post the call!
V
AAPL
GOOG
TEX
LLY
We had a simply SICK day and there was more, too many to list (not really but its late and I can't remember them all) :)
Many people wrote in asing me about what I meant by PIN strike prices on option expiration day. I will do a class on that and other similar type market action shortly, stay tuned! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Options Expiration week and particularly Options Expiration DAY. Its my favorite day of the month by far. If you nail it you can make your whole month, or your whole 3 months in a single day and Friday we NAILED IT!
I will be sending out info on the Options 3-day seminar with 1 of those days a LIVE trading day in a seperate chat room with just me, and you guys and ALL OPTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!
Cost will be $495 for the 3 day online class, Day 1 and Day 2 will be strictly educational and Day 3 will be LIVE TRADING with ONLY options plays.
If you are interested and have not emailed me yet, please do so, I'm not going to teach it to 100 people, so I suggest you email me to reserve your spot. Anyone who has already emailed me, please do NOT, you will be getting some info shortly, stay tuned!!!
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Also, email me with the heading OPTIONS TRADER if you are interested in signing up for the OPTIONS TRADER service that's been on fire. Same email addy. Thanks!
RULE and let's rock this week, folks,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I would suggest keeping your powder dry here. I want to be mostly cash so I can jump into and out of positions here. This is a TRADERS MARKET (they usually are) and I want to make sure I'm not overcommitted one way or another and put my capital at risk. Friday was a SICK day, folks! SICK!
And, you all read it here, I NAILED the day. In fact, OPTIONS TRADER service had 3, count 'em THREE more than DOUBLES intraday. Yes, you read that correctly and that's no BS, 3 option calls that more than doubled during the day post the call!
V
AAPL
GOOG
TEX
LLY
We had a simply SICK day and there was more, too many to list (not really but its late and I can't remember them all) :)
Many people wrote in asing me about what I meant by PIN strike prices on option expiration day. I will do a class on that and other similar type market action shortly, stay tuned! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Options Expiration week and particularly Options Expiration DAY. Its my favorite day of the month by far. If you nail it you can make your whole month, or your whole 3 months in a single day and Friday we NAILED IT!
I will be sending out info on the Options 3-day seminar with 1 of those days a LIVE trading day in a seperate chat room with just me, and you guys and ALL OPTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!
Cost will be $495 for the 3 day online class, Day 1 and Day 2 will be strictly educational and Day 3 will be LIVE TRADING with ONLY options plays.
If you are interested and have not emailed me yet, please do so, I'm not going to teach it to 100 people, so I suggest you email me to reserve your spot. Anyone who has already emailed me, please do NOT, you will be getting some info shortly, stay tuned!!!
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Also, email me with the heading OPTIONS TRADER if you are interested in signing up for the OPTIONS TRADER service that's been on fire. Same email addy. Thanks!
RULE and let's rock this week, folks,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Options expiration, watch the PIN ACTION...
I'm going to do a class on this shortly, but the simple version is that on OE day, which is today, many stocks get "pinned" at strike prices. Knowing that gives you an EXTREME advantage.
Just keep an eye on GOOG, GS, BIDU, AMZN, AAPL, X, etc. We'll tally it up Monday and see if it pans out.
Friday should be a wild ride, stay tuned!
FYI - to all those who emailed me about the Options 3 day mini-seminar, stay tuned I'll get you the info early next week. If you are still interested, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com.
In case you missed yesterday's blog, its 3 days ONLY OPTIONS. First 2 days are all classes and discussion on different option plays. It'll have an INTRO. class, Intermediate class and advanced options class and then day 3 will be an ALL DAY only options trading day LIVE with me in a seperate room just for option traders.
email me if you haven't already if you want to join us, the price is listed in yesterdays blog, I belive its $495 or $595 for the 3 days.
waxie@trendfund.com
Just keep an eye on GOOG, GS, BIDU, AMZN, AAPL, X, etc. We'll tally it up Monday and see if it pans out.
Friday should be a wild ride, stay tuned!
FYI - to all those who emailed me about the Options 3 day mini-seminar, stay tuned I'll get you the info early next week. If you are still interested, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com.
In case you missed yesterday's blog, its 3 days ONLY OPTIONS. First 2 days are all classes and discussion on different option plays. It'll have an INTRO. class, Intermediate class and advanced options class and then day 3 will be an ALL DAY only options trading day LIVE with me in a seperate room just for option traders.
email me if you haven't already if you want to join us, the price is listed in yesterdays blog, I belive its $495 or $595 for the 3 days.
waxie@trendfund.com
GOOLEICIOUS, bye bye...
GOOGLE rules the world!!! Ka-chingo for GOOGLE!' Whateva. ALMOST (ah, like hindsight, always 20/20!) called the $450 GOOG options straddle. Ah, the ones that get away!!! No biggie, though, only a triple plus. I really had zero opinion on GOOG #s. If you put a gun to my head I'd have said long, just cause right now everything going up even when they miss on the notion that we're at a bottom. Maybe, maybe, though I don't buy it. But, meanwhile we got nice big option moves on GS, MA, CMP, MELI and such. VERY nice, Waxie LOVE Options Expiration week! Only regret was selling a bit too soon cause GOOG looks to carry us higher into tomorrows close it appears. I've been saying we could get to a new High of Year shortly and we just may. The joy of trading is you can be bearish and yet still make money from the long side on a day to day basis! Or, even a week to week basis. So, how can YOU profit from GOOG without owning it? Well, I'm going to post some commentary now for you guys. This is the type of stuff we do for our clients day in and day out. We have been KICKING butt and we are going to be offering a FREE TRIAL for ya shortly so you can see for yourself why we are THE BEST, period! I would buy YHOO here. I'm not going to go into it for the hour I usually would, but I'll give you the basics and you can make your own decisions. I think YHOO is a pretty nice long play here, I think its only real downside appears to be if MSFT backs off its offer. I do not see that happening. It could, but I think its unlikely and GOOG is the reason. Here goes;YHOO and GOOG are forming a partnership to fend off MSFT offer of $31 a share for YHOO,which YHOO rejected out of hand. I'm sure you know this.
With GOOG #s today it reaffirms jerry yang's contention that MSFT offered way too little for YHOO at $31 a share.
MSFT when they made the offer got HAMMERED, destroyed and MSFT shareholders have been up in arms.
GOOG's #s does several things -
#1)Reinforces the bull case on online advertising
#2)Justifies MSFT offer for YHOO for both itself and it's shareholders, and the need for MSFT to do something or be crushed in the online ad arena. Also, you probably know this, but GOOG is releasing several initiatives that will directly compete with MSFT, including by all indications its own computer platform to compete with Windows.
There's more, but I have to leave, so suffice to say I think there is zero chance now #1 - the deal gets done between YHOO and MSFT
#2 - it gets done at a minimum of $35 a share in cash
There is just no chance that MSFT can not afford NOT to do the YHOO deal. GOOG literally is putting MSFT long term prospects at risk if they don't in my opinion.
There are several ways to play this, but the "safest" would be to buy YHOO shares and then hedge with the $25 puts, or the $20s if you want to have more share risk. The only question is when a deal gets done.
GOOG is $527 a share after hours. They will potentially go to $550 by tomorrow. I wish I bought some calls, but obviously didn't. Regardless, I think there is a very good opportunity on YHOO here long.
Further still, YHOO reports earnings next week I believe. There is virtually ZERO shot they do not blow out. ZERO. yang is not going to miss, that's absurd. They should blow out, further justifying a deal to MSFT, MSFT shareholders.
MSFT shares should also get a near term lift. I would be a buyer tomorrow at the open depending on where it opens for the same reasons. The stock sold off about 12% since they made the YHOO play.
Also, MSFT had admitted offering YHOO $40 a share in Dec. So, I think it is possible that the # is closer to $40 than $35. I think YHOO is a good buy here for the reasons stated above. We'll see soon enough, but I think if you play it right you should make a nice score without too much risk. See ya tomorrow, folks, see ya tomorro! RULE!
With GOOG #s today it reaffirms jerry yang's contention that MSFT offered way too little for YHOO at $31 a share.
MSFT when they made the offer got HAMMERED, destroyed and MSFT shareholders have been up in arms.
GOOG's #s does several things -
#1)Reinforces the bull case on online advertising
#2)Justifies MSFT offer for YHOO for both itself and it's shareholders, and the need for MSFT to do something or be crushed in the online ad arena. Also, you probably know this, but GOOG is releasing several initiatives that will directly compete with MSFT, including by all indications its own computer platform to compete with Windows.
There's more, but I have to leave, so suffice to say I think there is zero chance now #1 - the deal gets done between YHOO and MSFT
#2 - it gets done at a minimum of $35 a share in cash
There is just no chance that MSFT can not afford NOT to do the YHOO deal. GOOG literally is putting MSFT long term prospects at risk if they don't in my opinion.
There are several ways to play this, but the "safest" would be to buy YHOO shares and then hedge with the $25 puts, or the $20s if you want to have more share risk. The only question is when a deal gets done.
GOOG is $527 a share after hours. They will potentially go to $550 by tomorrow. I wish I bought some calls, but obviously didn't. Regardless, I think there is a very good opportunity on YHOO here long.
Further still, YHOO reports earnings next week I believe. There is virtually ZERO shot they do not blow out. ZERO. yang is not going to miss, that's absurd. They should blow out, further justifying a deal to MSFT, MSFT shareholders.
MSFT shares should also get a near term lift. I would be a buyer tomorrow at the open depending on where it opens for the same reasons. The stock sold off about 12% since they made the YHOO play.
Also, MSFT had admitted offering YHOO $40 a share in Dec. So, I think it is possible that the # is closer to $40 than $35. I think YHOO is a good buy here for the reasons stated above. We'll see soon enough, but I think if you play it right you should make a nice score without too much risk. See ya tomorrow, folks, see ya tomorro! RULE!
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
RALLY TIMEEEEEE, and starvation...
So, INTC posts pretty poor #s, but as we have discussed lately the market shrugs it off and blasts higher! Ka-chingo!
Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.
Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.
Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!
In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.
Stocks that they like to pin are;
GS
GOOG
BIDU
ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!
In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.
Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!
Be safe, and rule!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @ waxie@trendfund.com
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.
Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.
Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.
Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!
In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.
Stocks that they like to pin are;
GS
GOOG
BIDU
ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!
In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.
Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!
Be safe, and rule!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @ waxie@trendfund.com
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS, THE PARTY IS OVA!
One of the hardest things about trading a Bear market, which we most certainly are, is that the short side tends to sell MUCH faster than the market rises in a bull market. And, the short covering rallies are sharp, on lower volume and happen at a moments notice. So, one can get shaken out of a lot of things if one is not careful, or even turn a sharp winner into a sharp loser.
GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.
I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.
EARNINGS -
GOOG
IBM
MER
OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.
This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!
As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.
the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!
Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!
FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ waxie@trendfund.com to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!
Again, email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Or, find out and sign up for it @ https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1033621&CFID=808199&CFTOKEN=72414501
OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=SCMAPR2008&LC=LT20080414SCM&bannerid=889&trafficid=1033619&CFID=808198&CFTOKEN=69194363
email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!
There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at Trendfund.com!
Enjoy!
Rule,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!
GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.
I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.
EARNINGS -
GOOG
IBM
MER
OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.
This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!
As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.
the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!
Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!
FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ waxie@trendfund.com to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!
Again, email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Or, find out and sign up for it @ https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1033621&CFID=808199&CFTOKEN=72414501
OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=SCMAPR2008&LC=LT20080414SCM&bannerid=889&trafficid=1033619&CFID=808198&CFTOKEN=69194363
email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!
There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at Trendfund.com!
Enjoy!
Rule,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
WAAAA MOOOOOOOO!
OK, so Washington Mutual gets bailed out and everyone's SO happy! I've said for a while that WM is on MY watchlist of banks that I feel could go under. The $7 BIL bailout, believe it or not, doesn't change my view much. Just means it'll take longer, but I still think WM could go under. As it is they diluted the stock so much that the value of WM should be roughly $8s a share at most. The stock had run up roughly 30% on Monday into this supposed good news. I have to say I missed the opportunity to short it at the close because I don't like to be naked on news that I know is coming.
So, since so far nearly every financial institution that's taken on money has had to dilute their stock in a huge way, why would anyone want any piece of that sector? I think you have to be INSANE to buy a banking stock here. I don't care which one it is, you're nuts. So what some are better than others, that does not make them worth a hill a beans! C is going to be under $10 within 12 months, mark it down. And, anyone buying it thinking its a steal here at $23s is fooling themselves. Same thing with the brokers, same thing with the REITS. As usual, I hope I'm wrong!
There was a nice piece on Bloomberg today about the banking crisis. You should all go read it. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay.wksrAwOGI&refer=home
The banking system is on the verge of failure. Now maybe we avert a bigger problem, but I think that in the BEST case scenario the banks will have zero dividends and will be trading sole on their PE's. And, since their is likely to be a severe credit crunch for a while, and since they are cutting back on loans anyway, where exactly are they going to be making money from to justify their valuations. Banks don't trade at 25 X's earnings, they trade at 10 X's earnings, or 12 X's earnings. And, we're probably talking about them trading at 30 - 50 X's earnings for the next couple of years at least.
There's simply no way to justify these prices.
In the meantime, the market is going to either really believe we are going to have a short lived recession and break out to yearly highs shortly, or we're going to break back down. This is, truly, make or break time in my opinion. I still think there is a decent shot they bust us higher. I always say that people would rather lose money than risk not making money. Most of us have that instinct, its part of human nature.
FRUSTRATIONS OF TRADING...
Monday was frustrating early on for me. I called the bounce off the open and the move to green. It was a super move and a nice call. But, I had my field narrowed down to two stocks that have been hot lately to play and I picked GOOG over FSLR. Bad move. GOOG never lifted itself out of the hole it was in from the start while FSLR ended up going about $7 off the open! Sometimes it happens, it's part of trading. GOOG had been red hot and you all know I think GOOG is worth a LOT less than what it trades for now, but on a gap down you want the stocks that are gonna move the most and best and GOOG usually fits that bill. Not today!
As I write this we are looking lower futures wise. If we gap down I'll be in there buying again unless news comes. We should get a bounce. From there we'll see where they want to take us, but 12,500 should provide nice support. If we bust below that and hold below it then I think we retest 12,000 again shortly. If we can hold 12,500 then it should set up a higher high near term and perhaps get us that HOY move. I hope so, cause that should set up a very nice fall when we break the yearly LOWS.
It's all about keeping your eye on the bigger picture, folks! All about it.
See ya in the am, keep your focus and keep your powder dry. We're gearing up for a BIG move here...one way or the other!
RULE
Waxie
So, since so far nearly every financial institution that's taken on money has had to dilute their stock in a huge way, why would anyone want any piece of that sector? I think you have to be INSANE to buy a banking stock here. I don't care which one it is, you're nuts. So what some are better than others, that does not make them worth a hill a beans! C is going to be under $10 within 12 months, mark it down. And, anyone buying it thinking its a steal here at $23s is fooling themselves. Same thing with the brokers, same thing with the REITS. As usual, I hope I'm wrong!
There was a nice piece on Bloomberg today about the banking crisis. You should all go read it. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay.wksrAwOGI&refer=home
The banking system is on the verge of failure. Now maybe we avert a bigger problem, but I think that in the BEST case scenario the banks will have zero dividends and will be trading sole on their PE's. And, since their is likely to be a severe credit crunch for a while, and since they are cutting back on loans anyway, where exactly are they going to be making money from to justify their valuations. Banks don't trade at 25 X's earnings, they trade at 10 X's earnings, or 12 X's earnings. And, we're probably talking about them trading at 30 - 50 X's earnings for the next couple of years at least.
There's simply no way to justify these prices.
In the meantime, the market is going to either really believe we are going to have a short lived recession and break out to yearly highs shortly, or we're going to break back down. This is, truly, make or break time in my opinion. I still think there is a decent shot they bust us higher. I always say that people would rather lose money than risk not making money. Most of us have that instinct, its part of human nature.
FRUSTRATIONS OF TRADING...
Monday was frustrating early on for me. I called the bounce off the open and the move to green. It was a super move and a nice call. But, I had my field narrowed down to two stocks that have been hot lately to play and I picked GOOG over FSLR. Bad move. GOOG never lifted itself out of the hole it was in from the start while FSLR ended up going about $7 off the open! Sometimes it happens, it's part of trading. GOOG had been red hot and you all know I think GOOG is worth a LOT less than what it trades for now, but on a gap down you want the stocks that are gonna move the most and best and GOOG usually fits that bill. Not today!
As I write this we are looking lower futures wise. If we gap down I'll be in there buying again unless news comes. We should get a bounce. From there we'll see where they want to take us, but 12,500 should provide nice support. If we bust below that and hold below it then I think we retest 12,000 again shortly. If we can hold 12,500 then it should set up a higher high near term and perhaps get us that HOY move. I hope so, cause that should set up a very nice fall when we break the yearly LOWS.
It's all about keeping your eye on the bigger picture, folks! All about it.
See ya in the am, keep your focus and keep your powder dry. We're gearing up for a BIG move here...one way or the other!
RULE
Waxie
Monday, April 07, 2008
DISCONNECT, but with optimism...
It's funny, and absurd and actually endearing that we live in a country where optimism and hope do indeed spring eternal. It's hard for me sometimes, believe it or not, to be the guy who punches holes in "hope" as far as the market goes. Some of you may know this, most won't, but when I first started and was one of the first (and only) to call the market's peak in 2000 and was on CNN FN and FOX, etc. saying that it's time to short the market because we are gonna get hammered I got literal death threats. It was pretty bad, in one week I got 4 death threats. I had to go to NYPD Blue and speak to a detective, and I hired a former Detective to help me out. It's not the worst thing that ever happened to me, and frankly its kinda hard to scare me about most things, but having a child in 2001 and still getting them freaked me out a bit, I have to say. Thankfuly that hasn't happened in a long time, and I think we're much more "trained" now that the market can and does go down in a big way at times. So, I'm not the only one saying there is a disconnect right now between the market and reality. The pundits will say that the reason why the market is rallying is because this is going to be a short recession and the Fed's actions are already working and real estate will rebound, and all will be well. Booyah comes on all the time saying that home prices will be higher in a year from now. Sure they will be. I hope they will, like everyone else, but I get paid a lot of money by folks to give them a dose of reality every day so that they can hopefully profit by the market swings that occur each and every day. I'm not paid to be a talking head that says "oh, this is cheap or that is expensive". I give my opinions, sometimes I'm wrong, most of the time I'm right. The problem with the pundits its a conflict of interest, they are paid basically to tell you what to BUY. They aren't paid to tell you what to sell. Booyah is on now telling you that the people shorting the market are evil and that the uptick rule should be reinstated. THAT is the root of the market problems! yeah, ok, sure it is. This from a guy who was a hedge fund guy for years and who shorted stocks all the time. So, why is he on the case of shorts? Well, I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure that out. If the market goes into a prolonged bear market, which I believe it will and is, then the type of show he is on will be VERY difficult to stay on air. My business has gone down due to the market. When you are in the market you always "root" for it to go up, its the best for everyone. I would love for the market to go to 25,000, that would be awesome. I don't see that happening anytime in the next millenium, but I would be very happy if it happened. And, hey, maybe it will. Sometimes it pays to be wrong. My point is that I have to try to be a voice of reason (reality). We've been long lately and caught much of the move higher, but I am definately more bearish than bullish overall and longer term. The economy shows NO signs of getting better. This is, in my opinion, a trading rally in bear market. Unfortunately I can walk the streets of NYC and see store after store shut down. The unemployment #s are horrid an they are 100% getting worse. Washington Mutual (WM) rallied hard today after "good" news. In my view its just another shorting opp and I would love WM to see $16ish so I can reshort the thing. remember, just cause a stock isn't going under doesn't mean its worth $16 a share! On a daily basis we need to pick stocks that will move BOTH ways. We do that better than anyone else out there I believe. We're not always right, but we try to be and we try to be the voice of reason. The best traders have the steadiest hands. Hopefully you're stay steady with us! Tuesday should be pretty choppy. Market is trying to figure out how to push higher but its overbought. I think we could get another push higher, yet I am iffy here. I usually have a strong feeling but here I just want to take it minute by minute and stay nimble. When the market gives us some more guidance there will be a bigger move. It looks like higher here, but we shall see soon enough. Watch V and MA. MA has earnings shortly and V looks ready to pop HIGHER. We shall see! RULE! WAXIE
Friday, April 04, 2008
Up day today no matter the #s?
After yesterday's rally despite horrid economic #s I think we should get a bump today no matter what they #s are. It's actually quite astonishing how we continue to shrug off bad news and power higher under the (potentially) naive belief that we're going to end up getting a huge economic bump with all the Fed initiatives. Perhaps we will, perhaps, but history is not on the markets side, as much as prognosticators would like to pitch as being the case. The bottom line is that the stock market has not moved a single inch in the last DECADE. Wall Street journal the other day called the 2000s the "lost decade". And ,basically what's happened is that we've just had sector rotation, that's all. Look at tech as prime example and you'll see that the market hasn't moved up for sure, and in fact many sectors have moved down and at best sideways. IBM, a DOW bellweather (and tech) hasn't budged in 10 years! EMC is down 80% from its peaks, and DELL, INTC and MSFT and CSCO and dozens of others are less than 1/2 what they were 10 years ago.
The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!
Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!
RULE!
Waxie
The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!
Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Waxie & Tiny Show - SEMINAR - Money Back Guarantee!
Here's the link for the upcoming Waxie and Tiny show seminar. I suggest you sign up ASAP, once it sells out, it sells out. You have very little to lose and a LOT to gain! www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=880 sign up NOW!
BOOYAHHHH!!!
Wowsa! The market EXPLODED as we entered the 2nd quarter. I had a feeling we would get a bounce, but have to say I didn't expect that kind of move, there were NO SELLERS anywhere to be found and after initially trying to fade the huge gap up, we went along for the ride and called MON, MOS and several others for VERY nice rides HIGHER! That's why we TRADE and don't invest, on days like today you can catch the entire move investors wait an entire year to make. Think about it, market up 3+% today and down 10% on the year. That's the power of the TREND. SO, what trend is this? THis is the anti-Window Dressing trend, the stocks that were sold in the prior quarter get bought to start the next quarter. We teach this class every seminar (you can buy it in our store, the Trends are your Friends DVD @ www.trendfund.com) If thats the case then this may have a few days to pan out but ultimately should crash and burn again. I would NOT, I repeat NOT be shorting this and trying to pick this off here YET. I think I want to let this one play itself out, it might have a little ways to go on this one. I have a feeling they will not let this go so fast, so I would not try to pick the top on this one. Let's see how it plays out. I am LONG GOOG and GS, two stocks I gave as TOP 5 shorts longer term, so that will tell you how I feel this second. I'm not long much, but I am long here overnight. I do NOT want to short this just yet. I think they can pop us for short term gains. We'll see, but don't be so eager to short here is my call. If we die again we can hop on board, but GS can see $200 and GOOG can see $500 near term. Will they? We'll see, but I wouldn't be shocked. Usually new quarter can bring a lot of fund money in worried they will miss the rally and that we are indeed at a "bottom". Are we? Highly unlikely. By the way, did you see how absurd they were on CNBC? Hehe, they were going nuts and all giddy, it was pretty funny. I think they nervous if market tanks hard enough they are out of a job, so they were clearly giddy. Is that what you call unbiased reporting? Being a freakin' cheerleader? :) See ya tomorrow, folks. Watch for followthrough. I think a gap down tomorrow is a free money buy unless we get bad news. Hard to imagine us tanking hard tomorrow, really doubt it. RULE!
Monday, March 31, 2008
POP QUIZ!
OK, so LEH(Lehman Brothers) keeps coming out saying everything is fine and dandy, they are well situated, no money worries, none at all. Citi backs them up last Friday saying that LEH is a buy cause they got no big issues. Then how come after the close today LEH announces that they are selling $3 BILLION worth of stock to raise capital? Hmm, something smells a little funky in Denmark!
Meanwhile, we are now officially done with 1st quarter Window Dressing. Market did nothing really other than chop suey it up the whole day. Awful trading day. Not everyday do ya get to hit a home run or two, and Monday was one of those days. What will Tuesday bring? This is tough, for the 1st time in a while I am looking for a sign rather than making a strong call. Trend wise we SHOULD rally on buying of the beaten up 1st quarter stocks like banks, brokers, home builders, etc. And, I'll assume that til proven otherwise, but I certainly am not jumping in front of this bus just yet. I would rather wait patiently and pick a spot that's clearer. It's funny, my clients want me often to make calls even when their aren't any to make. Let's force the issue just to make a trade! I can't do that, I do that I get smacked and so do they if they jump in the turd ridden pool with me. I'd rather wait and see. I would LOVE us to get a rally here cause it'll just set up a really nice shorting opp from higher ground.
So, let's see what shakes before committing. I think we are 50/50 and I like my odds to be a lot better than that! Futures are pointing to a modestly down open. I would look to fade the gap no matter which way it opens. Watch LEH for a clue. If the market allows LEH to rally then I think we set up for a decent short term rally. If it slams it off the news then the end could come a lot sooner than anyone thinks!
We shall see, but it should be volatile either way nd we'll look to ride a wave or two Tuesday to nirvana!
Or, something comparable!
RULE!
Waxie
Meanwhile, we are now officially done with 1st quarter Window Dressing. Market did nothing really other than chop suey it up the whole day. Awful trading day. Not everyday do ya get to hit a home run or two, and Monday was one of those days. What will Tuesday bring? This is tough, for the 1st time in a while I am looking for a sign rather than making a strong call. Trend wise we SHOULD rally on buying of the beaten up 1st quarter stocks like banks, brokers, home builders, etc. And, I'll assume that til proven otherwise, but I certainly am not jumping in front of this bus just yet. I would rather wait patiently and pick a spot that's clearer. It's funny, my clients want me often to make calls even when their aren't any to make. Let's force the issue just to make a trade! I can't do that, I do that I get smacked and so do they if they jump in the turd ridden pool with me. I'd rather wait and see. I would LOVE us to get a rally here cause it'll just set up a really nice shorting opp from higher ground.
So, let's see what shakes before committing. I think we are 50/50 and I like my odds to be a lot better than that! Futures are pointing to a modestly down open. I would look to fade the gap no matter which way it opens. Watch LEH for a clue. If the market allows LEH to rally then I think we set up for a decent short term rally. If it slams it off the news then the end could come a lot sooner than anyone thinks!
We shall see, but it should be volatile either way nd we'll look to ride a wave or two Tuesday to nirvana!
Or, something comparable!
RULE!
Waxie
Sunday, March 30, 2008
HELP ME NOW I'M FALLING, CAPTAIN AMERICA CALLING!
I LOVE that song. In one of the 4 colleges I attended in 2 years (0.33 GPA) I used to play the Kinks a LOT. I doubt I'm the only one who played the same song over and over again in College because I liked it.
My kids do the same thing. They watch the same shows over and over again, and they can listen to the same song 20 times without it bothering them. Of course now it drives me nuts and I like a lot more variety, but you get my drift. The market sings that song a LOT lately. We keep looking for the Fed to come bail things out. And, they will!
Problem is, I doubt it does anything more than rally us for s short period and then we tank even harder. That's been the pattern and I doubt it'll change anytime soon. I hate repeating myself, but sometime's I can't help myself, can't help myself, can't help my freakin' selfffff!!! The Fed getting into the mortgage business has to be the worst decision a Fed has made potentially EVER. Benanke really is proving to be the biggest bumblehead of a Fedmeister ever. Have some B&**s Ben, have some cahoonas! I mean, for crying out loud, stop the insanity! We live in a FREE MARKET society! That means if you invest/buy something it can be worth either less or more when you sell it. You can't make it a guarantee that you make money or break even on everything you buy. If you do that you devalue the dollar into ZERONESS and you disincentivize people from taking care of themselves and learnings from their mistakes, and you tip the scales of the entire system. Whateva, I am repeating myself, so I won't bore ya all with the details of my Fed bashing. I think they suck, what can ya do? it's funny listening to Booyah lately! I have to say he is a total trip. Now he says the market is going down because of short sellers! hehe, roflmao, that's one of the funniest things I've ever heard. A hedgefund guy saying that. That's sheer LUNACY. The market doesn't go down because of short sellers, sorry. That's possibly a dumber idea than the Fed! The uptick rule was moronic in the first place. Why does everyone want to bend the free market/capitalistic rulebook to suit their needs? Hey, I'm fine if we want to live in a socialist country. OK, pay my medical insurance bills, please! But, unless we want to do that, then people should stop whining and start being proactive with their own finances! I've made plenty of bad deals that have lost me plenty of money. Such is life. It sucks, don't get me wrong, but it's part of the learning curve. It's like in 2000 when everyone started suing their brokers. What nonense. Hey, you decided to invest, not your broker. If you made money would you give 1/2 to the Fed, or the broker in this example? OF COURSE NOT! So, why should you be bailed out? The economy is in shambles. SHAMBLES. ANd, its not getting better overnight, so why do we continually want to fix the problem this instant, which only gets it worse and worse?
You ALL should learn how to SHORT THE FREAKIN' MARKET! That's right, I said it. Short the market, it sucks, its worth 50 - 70% less than what it trades at. ALL STOCKS SUCK! Sorry, but I had to say it. Until people start to look at the market as a TRADING VEHICLE they will continually get burned and they will continually whine and cry and ask Mommy Fed for help. Ben Bernanke's teet must be pretty sore about now cause so many whiney people are begging for milk as though he's their mommy!
What's great is, even a lot of the conservatives are whining for a government bailout! I'm not knocking anyone's politics, it just always strikes me as funny and ironic that people will take a side that is counter to their supposed belief system if it serves them in the moment. This Fed is like a dream come true for Dems. It's Rep appointed and yet it acts like it wants to give Home Owner welfare reform!
As far as the markets go, I'm iffy here. We nailed last week in a big way. I think we can go either way this week, but I would lean LONG post Monday a wee bit because post-Window dressing we usually reverse and since the market is tanked 1st quarter it may very well get a bounce to start the second quarter. That move, if it happens, will last for a short while and then I suspect we go back down. But, of course a lot depends on what the FED and the Houses figure out what type of bailout they are going to force through for political gain. We also have some MAJOR earnings releases this week. RIMM, GOOG , so me more banks and brokers. So, we should get a nice healthy VOLATILE (love it!) market this week. I'm looking forward to it, so should you be! By the way, I am doing a special TOP 5 Shorts and TOP 5 Put Options for 2008 class tomorrow night after the close, around 4:30 pm EST. You should all sign up for it! The link is: www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=882
Please note that the money back guarantee is after 120 days. This is a list that will have a plan and I think it should play out well over 120 days (or less) rather than in a week. So, just want to make that clear. I think you all should sign up since most of you need help with shorting and learning how great it is to be open and willing to short and buy PUTS!
RULE!
My kids do the same thing. They watch the same shows over and over again, and they can listen to the same song 20 times without it bothering them. Of course now it drives me nuts and I like a lot more variety, but you get my drift. The market sings that song a LOT lately. We keep looking for the Fed to come bail things out. And, they will!
Problem is, I doubt it does anything more than rally us for s short period and then we tank even harder. That's been the pattern and I doubt it'll change anytime soon. I hate repeating myself, but sometime's I can't help myself, can't help myself, can't help my freakin' selfffff!!! The Fed getting into the mortgage business has to be the worst decision a Fed has made potentially EVER. Benanke really is proving to be the biggest bumblehead of a Fedmeister ever. Have some B&**s Ben, have some cahoonas! I mean, for crying out loud, stop the insanity! We live in a FREE MARKET society! That means if you invest/buy something it can be worth either less or more when you sell it. You can't make it a guarantee that you make money or break even on everything you buy. If you do that you devalue the dollar into ZERONESS and you disincentivize people from taking care of themselves and learnings from their mistakes, and you tip the scales of the entire system. Whateva, I am repeating myself, so I won't bore ya all with the details of my Fed bashing. I think they suck, what can ya do? it's funny listening to Booyah lately! I have to say he is a total trip. Now he says the market is going down because of short sellers! hehe, roflmao, that's one of the funniest things I've ever heard. A hedgefund guy saying that. That's sheer LUNACY. The market doesn't go down because of short sellers, sorry. That's possibly a dumber idea than the Fed! The uptick rule was moronic in the first place. Why does everyone want to bend the free market/capitalistic rulebook to suit their needs? Hey, I'm fine if we want to live in a socialist country. OK, pay my medical insurance bills, please! But, unless we want to do that, then people should stop whining and start being proactive with their own finances! I've made plenty of bad deals that have lost me plenty of money. Such is life. It sucks, don't get me wrong, but it's part of the learning curve. It's like in 2000 when everyone started suing their brokers. What nonense. Hey, you decided to invest, not your broker. If you made money would you give 1/2 to the Fed, or the broker in this example? OF COURSE NOT! So, why should you be bailed out? The economy is in shambles. SHAMBLES. ANd, its not getting better overnight, so why do we continually want to fix the problem this instant, which only gets it worse and worse?
You ALL should learn how to SHORT THE FREAKIN' MARKET! That's right, I said it. Short the market, it sucks, its worth 50 - 70% less than what it trades at. ALL STOCKS SUCK! Sorry, but I had to say it. Until people start to look at the market as a TRADING VEHICLE they will continually get burned and they will continually whine and cry and ask Mommy Fed for help. Ben Bernanke's teet must be pretty sore about now cause so many whiney people are begging for milk as though he's their mommy!
What's great is, even a lot of the conservatives are whining for a government bailout! I'm not knocking anyone's politics, it just always strikes me as funny and ironic that people will take a side that is counter to their supposed belief system if it serves them in the moment. This Fed is like a dream come true for Dems. It's Rep appointed and yet it acts like it wants to give Home Owner welfare reform!
As far as the markets go, I'm iffy here. We nailed last week in a big way. I think we can go either way this week, but I would lean LONG post Monday a wee bit because post-Window dressing we usually reverse and since the market is tanked 1st quarter it may very well get a bounce to start the second quarter. That move, if it happens, will last for a short while and then I suspect we go back down. But, of course a lot depends on what the FED and the Houses figure out what type of bailout they are going to force through for political gain. We also have some MAJOR earnings releases this week. RIMM, GOOG , so me more banks and brokers. So, we should get a nice healthy VOLATILE (love it!) market this week. I'm looking forward to it, so should you be! By the way, I am doing a special TOP 5 Shorts and TOP 5 Put Options for 2008 class tomorrow night after the close, around 4:30 pm EST. You should all sign up for it! The link is: www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=882
Please note that the money back guarantee is after 120 days. This is a list that will have a plan and I think it should play out well over 120 days (or less) rather than in a week. So, just want to make that clear. I think you all should sign up since most of you need help with shorting and learning how great it is to be open and willing to short and buy PUTS!
RULE!
Friday, March 28, 2008
It's the ECONOMY, STUPID!
Trading the markets every day and listening to CNBC or CNN or Bloomberg throughout the day I hear a lot of differing info. Analyst after analyst treks out to give their opinions. Most of them are wrong, that's just the nature of the beast. It's kinda like gamblers, most lose. It's always interesting to hear when most come in on the same side of the tracks. That's when I know I should be going the other way. This morning Citibank came out saying you should buy LEH because it's trading at its lowest valuations in a very long time and slapped a $65 target on LEH. Now maybe LEH gets to $65, but I shorted LEH this morning, 3000 shares, at $41, a lot lower than their $65 target. Right now I'm up $1800 and I'll cover some soon, I'm not looking at making $5 a share, though its certainly possible. In this type of "tape" you want to fade these kinds of calls most of the time. The TAPE doesn't lie is a cliche, but it couldn't be truer than it is right now because there are a lot of pundits who keep trying to catch the proverbial falling knife. On Sunday I said I thought we would rally this week, we did and had a nice fat big move early this week and have since fallen off. These are trading rallies, but ultimately the tape says to me that we have a lot more downside overall. Now, if that call is wrong, thats great. I hope it is because I don't normally invest to the upside or downside, so the ability to trade creates the flexibility to be wrong on a long term basis but make money in the face of being wrong. Investors do not have that ability. I think thats a big problem. I always point to the brokerages, GS, MER, LEH and most of them make a lot of their money TRADING the market while telling you, the investor, that you should buy and hold and slapping $65 targets on stocks that clearly are having problems.
There are, however, some analysts who I pay attention to. This Oppenheimer analyst, Whitney, she has called the banks short (said they had issues) for a while. Last night on CNBC she slapped a $30 or less target on MER and said the banks are at least 25% overpriced here with severe issues. She is one of the few talking reality and investors would be wise to heed her warnings. Banks WILL cut their dividends. C, I believe, has a good shot at not existing in 5 years. As a trader this am I saw Citi's upgrade of LEH which moved all the brokers higher. Reading yesterday's tape I shorted LEH and I shorted MER on HER call from last night which most traders and investor saw. This is the type of tape you want to use rallies to sell into, not to add onto positions thinking its over. It's not, sorry. This am just now JC Penny said the consumer is really not spending, they missed HUGE. The futures were flying HIGHER because we had BS economic #s that supposedly were better than expected. I trust JCP missing huge over the #s right now. You would do well to heed warnings rather than latch onto growth. As I write this, my LEH short is now up almost $1 a share. I'm covering 1/2 plus a nice profit and moving my stops to b/e on the rest. My MER short is up about .80 cents and I think I'll ride that a wee bit more with a stop at b/e from here.
I'm not remotely always right. As a trader I've learned that I have to take a TON of losses but as long as I have more gains than losses then I'm doing A-OK. Investors take note, the worst is not remotely priced into this market. Use rallies to sell, hope is for analysts who are worried that if the market goes down enough they will be out of a job.
RULE!
There are, however, some analysts who I pay attention to. This Oppenheimer analyst, Whitney, she has called the banks short (said they had issues) for a while. Last night on CNBC she slapped a $30 or less target on MER and said the banks are at least 25% overpriced here with severe issues. She is one of the few talking reality and investors would be wise to heed her warnings. Banks WILL cut their dividends. C, I believe, has a good shot at not existing in 5 years. As a trader this am I saw Citi's upgrade of LEH which moved all the brokers higher. Reading yesterday's tape I shorted LEH and I shorted MER on HER call from last night which most traders and investor saw. This is the type of tape you want to use rallies to sell into, not to add onto positions thinking its over. It's not, sorry. This am just now JC Penny said the consumer is really not spending, they missed HUGE. The futures were flying HIGHER because we had BS economic #s that supposedly were better than expected. I trust JCP missing huge over the #s right now. You would do well to heed warnings rather than latch onto growth. As I write this, my LEH short is now up almost $1 a share. I'm covering 1/2 plus a nice profit and moving my stops to b/e on the rest. My MER short is up about .80 cents and I think I'll ride that a wee bit more with a stop at b/e from here.
I'm not remotely always right. As a trader I've learned that I have to take a TON of losses but as long as I have more gains than losses then I'm doing A-OK. Investors take note, the worst is not remotely priced into this market. Use rallies to sell, hope is for analysts who are worried that if the market goes down enough they will be out of a job.
RULE!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
IS IT OVA????
Market really is in the s*&^bag to say the least. I have to say, this market and the economy is so screwed it's like a sick joke. I listen day after day to the Fed, and the pundits on CNBC and it's really scary. They actually believe that the Fed is going to save the universe! They actually believe that the Fed should bail the whole entire country out! People made bad investments. Last I looked you make a bad investment, you lose on it, you have to suck it up and move on and try to make a better investment next time! Do we live in a land of whiners? My kids know there are consequences to every action. I've made a TON of bad investments that lost a boatload of money. I threw away crazy amount of money making a movie a few years ago (will finally be in your local Blockbuster in June! Called Crazy for Love) it sucked losing so much money and I sure can use it now, but its gone, I have to move on, I got no choice, baby. The Fed needs to stop treating the public like they are stupid children. If the Fed is bailing out homeowners, they should bail me out of my movie. Wny not? WHere do you draw the line? Besides, even if a case could be made as to why the Fed should do one of the dumbest ideas ever thrown out there, where is the money coming from? There is no difference doing this and just wiping the value of the US Dollar down to zero. That's where we are headed, folks. Sorry, its 1:29 am and I don't have time to put on the kids gloves. If the Fed (when) bail out homeowners they will be making the single biggest mistake in the history of the US Economy. We will 100% be headed into a DEPRESSION that is likely to last for MANY years. They will be dooming our country to the worst economic crisis we have ever known, and they will render our currency worthless. They may very well bankrupt the entire country. Bernanke has ZERO clue about what he is doing. I've said it here before, I'm considered fairly liberal in my views, but I am not blind to fiscal responsibility. You can not keep printing money and throwing it into a wishing well.
The fiscal stimulus. Let me ask anyone reading this. What the freak are you going to do with your $600? Seriously, that is one of the dumbest ideas yet. Yes, everyone gets $600 an that's going to make everything right!!
What the Fed never realizes is that in putting bandaids on economic crisis' they make it WORSE. They delay the inevitable. It was the same with the internet bubble. This is the perfect storm. An election year so no party wants to be responsible and say "we're screwed for the next 3 or 4 years, but we will be ok after that more than likely". That would be responsible and honest. Instead we get these stupid ideas that gain traction because they are all posing for their constituency and all they do is set us way back more and more.
At LEAST one of the major banks is going to go under. I believe Citibank has a very high probability of going under this year. I think Washington Mutual is shot. I think Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae are JOKE stocks. I think there is going to be serious carnage before its all said and done and its unfortunte because what would be responsible would not make people happy, but it would be the best thing possible. Wash the system out, let the real estate market collapse for a while. It'll generate jobs because it'll stimulate growth at the bottom. Instead, we're just compounding the problems and speeding up a very very bad situation, making it much worse.
I hope I am wrong, but I rarely am when it comes to this type of thing. near term I still thnk we can get one more push higher. I am hoping we get to 13,000 - 13,5000 to reset some serious shorts. In the meantime, we'll let the nutty investors get giddy everytime the Fed does something that amounts to nothing more than a bandaid. People will rush out and buy the market thinking that the bottom is in.
When is anyone going to get that as long as people ask the question "is this the bottom" then it's NOT.
I will say I'm not as bullish as I was to start the week. We have made huge lately. My account has more than tripled as of today from 3 weeks ago! that's SICK! I'm good, but thats just sick good, even for me!
Let's play this market here loose, meaning ride the waves. When the market is ready to tank I think we should catch it. The chopiness needs to be feared, its hard to trade a sideways market. We like TRENDS, they are our friends!
RULE
Waxie
P.S. I know I"m gruff here, but I tell it like it is, or at least like i see it. That's all I know how to do! RULE!
The fiscal stimulus. Let me ask anyone reading this. What the freak are you going to do with your $600? Seriously, that is one of the dumbest ideas yet. Yes, everyone gets $600 an that's going to make everything right!!
What the Fed never realizes is that in putting bandaids on economic crisis' they make it WORSE. They delay the inevitable. It was the same with the internet bubble. This is the perfect storm. An election year so no party wants to be responsible and say "we're screwed for the next 3 or 4 years, but we will be ok after that more than likely". That would be responsible and honest. Instead we get these stupid ideas that gain traction because they are all posing for their constituency and all they do is set us way back more and more.
At LEAST one of the major banks is going to go under. I believe Citibank has a very high probability of going under this year. I think Washington Mutual is shot. I think Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae are JOKE stocks. I think there is going to be serious carnage before its all said and done and its unfortunte because what would be responsible would not make people happy, but it would be the best thing possible. Wash the system out, let the real estate market collapse for a while. It'll generate jobs because it'll stimulate growth at the bottom. Instead, we're just compounding the problems and speeding up a very very bad situation, making it much worse.
I hope I am wrong, but I rarely am when it comes to this type of thing. near term I still thnk we can get one more push higher. I am hoping we get to 13,000 - 13,5000 to reset some serious shorts. In the meantime, we'll let the nutty investors get giddy everytime the Fed does something that amounts to nothing more than a bandaid. People will rush out and buy the market thinking that the bottom is in.
When is anyone going to get that as long as people ask the question "is this the bottom" then it's NOT.
I will say I'm not as bullish as I was to start the week. We have made huge lately. My account has more than tripled as of today from 3 weeks ago! that's SICK! I'm good, but thats just sick good, even for me!
Let's play this market here loose, meaning ride the waves. When the market is ready to tank I think we should catch it. The chopiness needs to be feared, its hard to trade a sideways market. We like TRENDS, they are our friends!
RULE
Waxie
P.S. I know I"m gruff here, but I tell it like it is, or at least like i see it. That's all I know how to do! RULE!
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
SECTOR ROTATION NOW, BABIES!
OK, I know what you're thinking. Wow, that Waxie dude is Da Man!
And, well, I don't blame you. I am da man fo sure. Having said that, in this business I can only be da man on a day to day da man basis! Why? 'Cause one of my first lessons teaching people about the market and trading was that I could go 50 and 0 and be hailed the greatest thin' since Gunga Din, but if I lose on trade 51...I SUCK! I am the worst and someone, somewhere will write really REALLY nasty things about me! I will say, though, at least for today that I am the absolute freakin' ruler of the world! The nearly 200 clients who came to the TOP 5 Stock and Options class last night are certainly riding high in the saddle, dude and dudess'! We are SMOKIN'! It's a tad late for anyone else to get in the game, so I'll post a few of the big winners here now; COIN (up over 20% intraday), ORCL calls up 3% so far, but higher after hours, AA calls up about 20% from the open, RIMM calls and stock = ROCKING obviously (we sold 1/2 at the high of day today!), MON, well, MON total beast obviously, the list is just doing fantastic, even on a basically flat day.
The market right now should trend higher unless bad news knocks it down. it's unlikely it'll go in a straight line, but I see no real compelling reason for us to get a massive selloff again here near term, baring news (always that damn hedge!). News does RULE, as you all know by now!
I think staying away from banks and brokers this second is a good idea. If we continue to rally they will go along for the ride more than likely, but those groups are much more likely to catch a real beating news wise than anything else.
I'm going to give you guys a little hint. When the market is like this you need to look for LAGGARDS. It's one of the things I think I do better than most traders. It works both ways, meaning we can short laggards (stocks that have been strongest) when we smell blood in the streets coming as well. COIN is a perfect example. Yesterday it was up (I liked it SUnday night, so its up like 30% in two days), but our entry was super duper delicious. Why COIN? Well, Ag stocks figured to get a nice bounce after last weeks selloff, even on Friday when the tape was rocking higher. Once I saw that those stocks were primed to bounce, COIN is automatically on my radar screen. My laggard meter is on hyper alert and it's time to look for stocks that are a little smaller that can move in a big % manner. COIN fit the bill perfectly.
I think I may have another one for tomorrow, an under $10 stock that looks primed to get a nice big move potentially.
Sector rotation works like this as well. The hottest stocks all bounce, like the solars (check out FSLR and you'll see what I mean since that's the leader in that sector clearly) and in that group you look for laggards (did ya see our SOLF move today! Wowsa!). Then you look for lagging SECTORS for a bounce. Usually thats the weakest bunch of stocks thats lagged the move so far. Timing is everything and if you time it right you pay at a time when the market is ready to reward the patient traders who may have to ride a loser a wee bit before it coils and bounces higher to catch up.It's like the food chain. If you do well in one place its scarier to look elsewhere, but you definately don't want to stay your welcome and you certainly don't want to be so early that you take a big beating before the inevitable catch up stock. Trick is to study the market and a sector or two, and then look at a couple weeks daily charts on each stock. You are quite likely to see some overlapping. That's a very very good thing and one you may want to consider trying on your own.
Tomorrow fading the gap will probably be a good strategy to start the day. From there I will look for breakouts and the like. From there we'll see if I remain DA MAN! or, if I am tossing sald with Emeril!
See ya on the other wise,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
And, well, I don't blame you. I am da man fo sure. Having said that, in this business I can only be da man on a day to day da man basis! Why? 'Cause one of my first lessons teaching people about the market and trading was that I could go 50 and 0 and be hailed the greatest thin' since Gunga Din, but if I lose on trade 51...I SUCK! I am the worst and someone, somewhere will write really REALLY nasty things about me! I will say, though, at least for today that I am the absolute freakin' ruler of the world! The nearly 200 clients who came to the TOP 5 Stock and Options class last night are certainly riding high in the saddle, dude and dudess'! We are SMOKIN'! It's a tad late for anyone else to get in the game, so I'll post a few of the big winners here now; COIN (up over 20% intraday), ORCL calls up 3% so far, but higher after hours, AA calls up about 20% from the open, RIMM calls and stock = ROCKING obviously (we sold 1/2 at the high of day today!), MON, well, MON total beast obviously, the list is just doing fantastic, even on a basically flat day.
The market right now should trend higher unless bad news knocks it down. it's unlikely it'll go in a straight line, but I see no real compelling reason for us to get a massive selloff again here near term, baring news (always that damn hedge!). News does RULE, as you all know by now!
I think staying away from banks and brokers this second is a good idea. If we continue to rally they will go along for the ride more than likely, but those groups are much more likely to catch a real beating news wise than anything else.
I'm going to give you guys a little hint. When the market is like this you need to look for LAGGARDS. It's one of the things I think I do better than most traders. It works both ways, meaning we can short laggards (stocks that have been strongest) when we smell blood in the streets coming as well. COIN is a perfect example. Yesterday it was up (I liked it SUnday night, so its up like 30% in two days), but our entry was super duper delicious. Why COIN? Well, Ag stocks figured to get a nice bounce after last weeks selloff, even on Friday when the tape was rocking higher. Once I saw that those stocks were primed to bounce, COIN is automatically on my radar screen. My laggard meter is on hyper alert and it's time to look for stocks that are a little smaller that can move in a big % manner. COIN fit the bill perfectly.
I think I may have another one for tomorrow, an under $10 stock that looks primed to get a nice big move potentially.
Sector rotation works like this as well. The hottest stocks all bounce, like the solars (check out FSLR and you'll see what I mean since that's the leader in that sector clearly) and in that group you look for laggards (did ya see our SOLF move today! Wowsa!). Then you look for lagging SECTORS for a bounce. Usually thats the weakest bunch of stocks thats lagged the move so far. Timing is everything and if you time it right you pay at a time when the market is ready to reward the patient traders who may have to ride a loser a wee bit before it coils and bounces higher to catch up.It's like the food chain. If you do well in one place its scarier to look elsewhere, but you definately don't want to stay your welcome and you certainly don't want to be so early that you take a big beating before the inevitable catch up stock. Trick is to study the market and a sector or two, and then look at a couple weeks daily charts on each stock. You are quite likely to see some overlapping. That's a very very good thing and one you may want to consider trying on your own.
Tomorrow fading the gap will probably be a good strategy to start the day. From there I will look for breakouts and the like. From there we'll see if I remain DA MAN! or, if I am tossing sald with Emeril!
See ya on the other wise,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, March 24, 2008
There ya are, me little rallerina!
Well, we certainly nailed it! Market did indeed rally, though much more than I was hoping for. Now? We probably pull in a little. I think we get a little range to break out of to the upside.Unless, of course, there's some news that cracks us again. That's certainly possible. Baring bad news I do think we can scale higher without that much of a pullback. Ultimately we go LOWER, but for now we still look like some back and filling and then potentially a range breakout to the 13,000s. From there, if we even get there, I would think we get a nice selloff and break to the downside.
Here is the problem, its kinda a perfect storm eventually. You have the Fed bailing everyone and everything out. Wonderful, hurray for the Fed. Unfortunately its going to catch up, it has to. The Fed can't just print money with no ramifications. People are giddy that the Fed is doing all this, but its politically motivated and it can't do anything but put a bandaid on the issues. At least thats my take, but I'm just a trader and not an economist.
In the meantime, we'll trade and reap the rewards!
Here is the problem, its kinda a perfect storm eventually. You have the Fed bailing everyone and everything out. Wonderful, hurray for the Fed. Unfortunately its going to catch up, it has to. The Fed can't just print money with no ramifications. People are giddy that the Fed is doing all this, but its politically motivated and it can't do anything but put a bandaid on the issues. At least thats my take, but I'm just a trader and not an economist.
In the meantime, we'll trade and reap the rewards!
Saturday, March 22, 2008
TIME TO ROCK???
OK, for the first time in a long while, I am pretty BULLISH on the week ahead. I can see us getting a pretty sizable move here near term. In fact, I could see us over YEARLY highs in the near future before we turn back down again and get a pretty massive selloff.
So, I am looking to get long early this week on some beaten down piglets. I think some of the tech names should get a bounce. You'll have to become members on SOME level to get the best candidates, sorry. My clients pay good money for real picks and it would be unfair to just lay them here for freebies. I will say that if we do get a decent bounce and you're in the right stocks this could be a VERY nice time to rack up some huge gains. The best thing is, even if that's the wrong call we can take small loss and reverse.
I want to mention that our WORLD SERIES OF TRADING Las Vegas seminar ROCKED! Thank you all who attended! We had a great time and it was so great to meet you all. It wasn't so nice waking up at 4:30 am to trade, and that took its toll, but it was awesome and it was even better that I made nearly 200% on my account trading LIVE with you all!
WOWSA! 200% in 2 weeks ain't too shabby! We're planning a NEW seminar in NJ shortly. It'll be a one week seminar that is limited to 35 people and fee will be $1995 with a GUARANTEE you make money trading during the seminar or you'll get $1000 back immediately! If you have an interest in this special offer, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll send you the details, but first 35 to sign up get it and that's that.
We're also going to start offering FOREX, if you are interested in FOREX please email me as well @ waxie@trendfund.com. We have some special offers and I LOVE FOREX! It's open 24/7 and you can open an account with $400! It also gives you 100 X's buying power, which is attractive. We are setting up a special offer with a recommended brokerage firm to handle it, and we're doing free classes and a book/dvd offer for those who sign up and open an account.
In the meantime, look for market gains this week. Ultimately I stick to the call that the market is going down HUGE this year regardless. But, as we know, nothing goes in a straight line and so this week let's rock to the upside!
Please do post your comments, it gives me incentive to keep the blog up to date. I hate talking to myself, so speak out!
Go market - GOOOOOOO!!!! Look for a respite in the selling unless we get some really bad news. If we don't we could see DOW 13,500 in the next couple/three weeks. I hope so, cause that'll keep the volatility high and the ranges large!
Just the way we love it! This is the best trading market I have EVER seen outside 1999/2000. It's SCARY good! To be able to nearly triple my account in 2 weeks is INSANE, but thats the beauty of this market and why if you are on the sidelines, you need to get in the game!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
So, I am looking to get long early this week on some beaten down piglets. I think some of the tech names should get a bounce. You'll have to become members on SOME level to get the best candidates, sorry. My clients pay good money for real picks and it would be unfair to just lay them here for freebies. I will say that if we do get a decent bounce and you're in the right stocks this could be a VERY nice time to rack up some huge gains. The best thing is, even if that's the wrong call we can take small loss and reverse.
I want to mention that our WORLD SERIES OF TRADING Las Vegas seminar ROCKED! Thank you all who attended! We had a great time and it was so great to meet you all. It wasn't so nice waking up at 4:30 am to trade, and that took its toll, but it was awesome and it was even better that I made nearly 200% on my account trading LIVE with you all!
WOWSA! 200% in 2 weeks ain't too shabby! We're planning a NEW seminar in NJ shortly. It'll be a one week seminar that is limited to 35 people and fee will be $1995 with a GUARANTEE you make money trading during the seminar or you'll get $1000 back immediately! If you have an interest in this special offer, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll send you the details, but first 35 to sign up get it and that's that.
We're also going to start offering FOREX, if you are interested in FOREX please email me as well @ waxie@trendfund.com. We have some special offers and I LOVE FOREX! It's open 24/7 and you can open an account with $400! It also gives you 100 X's buying power, which is attractive. We are setting up a special offer with a recommended brokerage firm to handle it, and we're doing free classes and a book/dvd offer for those who sign up and open an account.
In the meantime, look for market gains this week. Ultimately I stick to the call that the market is going down HUGE this year regardless. But, as we know, nothing goes in a straight line and so this week let's rock to the upside!
Please do post your comments, it gives me incentive to keep the blog up to date. I hate talking to myself, so speak out!
Go market - GOOOOOOO!!!! Look for a respite in the selling unless we get some really bad news. If we don't we could see DOW 13,500 in the next couple/three weeks. I hope so, cause that'll keep the volatility high and the ranges large!
Just the way we love it! This is the best trading market I have EVER seen outside 1999/2000. It's SCARY good! To be able to nearly triple my account in 2 weeks is INSANE, but thats the beauty of this market and why if you are on the sidelines, you need to get in the game!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
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