Monday on Trend Success is POKER SUCCESS show!

Monday night from 7 to 8 pm EST I have a Poker success show on my radio show - "Trend Sucess"

Phil "Unibomber" Laak and Antonio "The Magician" Esfandiari and possibly actress turned Poker Goddess Jennifer Tilly will be on my show this Monday!

Tune in or call in to speak to me toll free 1-877-242-8212...

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This week's show should be pretty cool, and I'll also be discussing what I see upcoming for the markets, and YOU!

So, tune in Monday for TREND SUCCESS, Poker style!

And, dial in to talk to me and share your stories of success and thoughts about what ya hear and what ya think. In today's world, success now more then ever depends on how you view it!

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

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CARRY TRADES and, well, CARRY TRADES...

Tonight on my radio show; Trend Success (www.chataboutit.com), I talked a little bit about the carry trade. It's become quite obvious that the main thing now carrying this market is the Carry TRADE.

So, what is a Carry Trade? Basically it's when you can borrow money at very low (now zero) interest, and then use it to invest/buy and leverage in to a vehicle that pays a higher rate. Kinda like borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, except Paul ultimately pays off a whole lot better then Peter could ever have imagined.

It's one of the main reasons that the big powerful investment houses (GS, MS) have made huge hoards of cash trading this market since the bailouts by taxpayers. Basically, they have taken the Fed/Taxpayer money and leveraged it (the same risk trades that got us into this mess to begin with in some cases, though thats oversimplified) and made massive profits which they then pay themselves billions with.

It's basically double taxation all around. At some point people will realize that we've been screwed, but it ain't now. Banks borrow OUR money at next to 0% and then loan it back to US at 6% or higher. When they start taxing US for the money we loaned that is being loaned back at higher rates maybe the Rat isn't in Denmark after all.

Meanwhile, futures are down as I write this. This is a TOUGH market. I am cutting back my lot size because of it. I'd love a nice pullback here so we can ramp into year end, but I'm not counting on it.

So, let's just carry ourselves and keep things hugging the vest, meaning take it a day at a time. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL here, they should make new highs shortly and will either reject them or plow through and that should tip the markets hand. Of course, you can probably use S & P and Nasdaq highs same way. A gap down has to be buyable for a fade, but we've been trending both ways seemingly every day.

So...in times like this I try to pick my spots and trade lighter then normal.

I will say, as I said on my show tonight, once that carry trade unwinds we are going to get the mother of all selloffs.

RULE

Michael "Waxie" Parness

It's pretty ingenious and basically the taxpayer is the tool in the end cause we'll be "carried" to the ER with heart attacks when our taxes go through the roof.

So, as long as the US DOllar stays weak then the carry trade could conceivably stay in effect. Think of it this way, would you rather have your money in US currency, or in a rising stock market? Maybe the stock market will go down - MAYBE - but we KNOW the US Dollar is tank city in the long and probably short haul.

So, that's why when people ask me how high we can go, I have no idea, seriously. I thought we'd pull back last week post FOMC, and clearly I was wrong and got slammed because of it. Hey, shat happens, it's part of the game, even I ain't always right, no shot, no one is.

Having said that, today's move was all off the G20 saying that they are going to keep the printing presses rolling and as long as that happens, you have a carry trade going.

Having said that, there are signs that this rally is waning even as we made new highs today on the year on the DOW. Volume has gone down over the last few days trading as we continue to rise.

Ka-chango...and other strange stories of lost and found...

OK, so clearly the only thing I was right about today was UUP, which had a super move for Option Traders as the calls went almost 75% in a single day. THAT is a nice trade.

However, I didn't fare so well as when I woke up the futures were already flying. I made some money fading RIMM and CSCO off the open, but everything else I had was smashed.

Sucks when you're on the wrong side of things, and a trader is often that way. For every million I've made I've probably lost several, but the bottom line is that it's a marathon, not a sprint and in the long run a good trader should provide the bacon, and the cheese.

The carry trade that you keep hearing about is very powerful here. Many technicians and good traders are dumbfounded. I have to say that the last two weeks have been tough trading even for me. For us to have the kind of intense trend day up, with no gap fade, off yesterday's close is rather surprising. Yeah, I know the employment #s were "good" or better then expected, but 200+ points and reclaiming 10k off them? Hmm, the carry trade is all that really is playing out here. As long as the dollar falls and there is no sign of interest rates rising, the market could very well continue higher and higher. Is it a bubble? Yeah, of course it is, but so what? The market can stay in a bubble far longer then you can stay short it waiting for it to be rationale, that's why it doesn't pay to be too biased, like I was headed into today! Oouch.

I the meantime, Friday has more employment #s which should beat easily, and typically the market on Friday follows the move on Thursday FOMC week and trends the same way. I expect a gap up if #s are good, and then probably chop around but probably finish green again. But, I'll wait before making any big bets this time.

If the trend holds true, then next week we will reverse off this weeks post-FOMC move and head lower, potentially to that magic S & P 1000 #. Having said that, I mean, its hard to have conviction to the downside in this market, EVERY move down gets bought and as we head to year end we could easily just head higher.

I will say that when this carry trade does unwind we really should get a huge down move that is gonna shake a lot of people. That should happen as soon as rates head higher. Here now its iffy, and 10k is still in play. Also, overhead if we head higher look at the recent yearly highs as 1st line of real resistence (1075 actually before that) and if we break the highs then 1150 could be a heart beat away.

We shall see, we shall see soon enough!

RULE!

*Monday I have a GREAT guest on Trend Success on www.chataboutit.com and I'm really excited. Hopefully you guys and gals have checked out the show, its on podcast at www.chataboutit.com


Keep rockin'

Waxie

The sound on the bus goes round and round, round and round...

Wowsa, talk about whipsaw. Here is the logic of the market for ya;

We gap up, fade off the open and cause the ISM #s weren't so hot, then rally like mad dogs to up 130s, then pull in a wee bit into FOMC but still near the highs.

Then the Fed says EVERYTHING and MORE then the market could ever hope for, we catch the fade of the spike up, then we spike back up, then down, then up to highs and then we completely roll over in the final 1/2 hour and the Nasdaq closes red, and the DOW barely green.

Plus, the dollar, which I have to tell ya I went long WAY WAY WAY too early and got smacked HARD on that trade, spikes lower and it looks like the Euro is going to new all-time highs vs the dollar and then it too roll over quite a bit to close the day like crap.

Then CSCO reports earnings and blows out and guides up and the stock spikes a lot higher and the futures rally hard...

and now, as I write this, the dollar is higher, the futures look miserable and what the hell is a trader to do?

OK, so here's the dealio. I think you have to lean lower and still short any spikes, thats what the tape is saying. However, one thing I've been learning the hard way at times is that swinging stuff here hasn't panned out that well, so I am starting to look minute to minute. What's that mean? Well, I went home net pretty short. I own puts on VNO, SPG and BAC and calls on FAZ and SRS. I'm also long the dollar. Thing is, if we do gap down decently I'm going to have to consider, at least, selling half or all my position and waiting to see how we trade from there. This market is up for grabs and the volume is just so low that it's tough to get any traction either way. It almost seems like these days the proper game plan intraday is to see where we are at lunch and then fade that bias. It's been working fairly well lately. This market trades on such light volume that it gets pushed around based on what it feels second to second. It's a very sensitive market, and that needs to be respected. Taking too big a bias into a day only hurts you.

Capital preservation remains paramount.

In the meantime, watch what the central bank in Europe does tomorrow am. If they start tightening then the dollar should really get an extended move higher as I suspect. If they don't, then the dollar bears may get their candy for a while longer as the dollar could go even lower. It's interesting reading pundits all over and listening to Booyahhead say that the "Bears" as though they are some mythical creature, sorta like the Lochness monster or somethin', as though these Bear beings really give a crap about arguements for or against the market going higher or lower. Any good trader trusts his gut and its fixated on being a Bear or Bull. Yes, there are people who are BEARISH, but as far as I know the only "Bears" are either in the forest, in freezing tempatures, in a zoo, or in Chicago. The rest is hogwash.

Watch Gold here, it looks way way way overextended. I woulda liked to have seen it go over $1100 to get short for a quick trade, but it still may and I wouldn't hold a swing on GOld short if you paid me hard cash, or GOld. It's just such a beast.

It really comes down to the dollar. If the dollar continues lower, we are going higher, if the dollar stengthens, we are going lower, period. Mark it down, its worked like a charm for a while now.

Europe should tighten. I'm not sure they will, but they should. It's really in no one's best interest that we have a weak dollar as I've discussed many many times, but certainly it's not in Europe's best interest and it's not in China's either. I suspect they still tighten and support the dollar. The Euro goes to $2 or something close, you'll see a very bad US economy, potentially even worse then we've had. That will not be good, not at all.

I stick to the deflation followed by inflation theory I've had for a while and that's what seems to be playing out. That supports a higher dollar followed by a much much lower one.

Thanks for all who tuned into my radio show on www.chataboutit.com. I'm getting my feet wet and really enjoy it. Next Monday coming up I have a VERY cool guest, and we have some really powerful guests upcoming from there. I'm taking it very seriously.

Also, please be advised, the January Effect list time of year is almost here! Last year's list went 15 of 16 and ROCKED! Many people said they made HUGE and so did I. Some of the option plays were TREMENDOUS.

So, get ready, we'll be offering the list out in about 2 to 3 weeks - ARE YOU READY???

You should be, I think it's gonna ROCK!

See ya on the other side,

Waxie

Tonight 7 to 8 pm EST on CBS' online radio - www.chataboutit.com

Please tune in tonight from 7 to 8 pm EST. Go to; www.chataboutit.com

My show is called - TREND SUCCESS

you can click on the link to listen in and watch as well. Also, please call in with some positive vibes!

RULE

Waxie

You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...and now is the time to fold 'em...

S & P should see below 1000 shortly, Nasdaq almost a sure thing to see below 2000, and below 1900 more then likely before any real sustainable bounce comes along.

While I could be wrong, it seems unlikely we aren't done for now. We're basically done with the majority of meaningful earnings and I'm not sure why anyone would want to own stuff new, or not take profits on stuff they are up or recouped from.

You'd have to be insane, and while I think that investors are insane for letting someone else handle their money, but even so holding GOOG here at $550 area, where's it going? $600? So, you want to risk a trip to $400 for a potential pop to $600? Good luck to ya. And, GOOG would be one of the better examples of stocks that should hold up relatively well. I like the REIT's lower here, but let's see what shakes Monday. Futures started a lot lower tonight but have rebounded and are GREEN across the board here into the open tomorrow. I think a gap up is a must short baring news of some sort, but anything remains possible. The gaps have been pretty putrid lately as last week we basically had trend days every day and not much of a bounce post open, or a drawdown if we gapped up. This week may provide a reversal of fortune, and I do think we have officially changed the game here and look like the near term top is in.

Keep watching the dollar, that's a KEY and should remain so. I don't see any reason the dollar won't continue to get a bounce, particularly since most people don't think it can. It's interesting that the speak about the dollar mirrors the speak about the market up til now, no one thinks the dollar can sustain any type of rally, same as no one thought the market could. That should indicate some more decent upside for the dollar.

As I always say, nothing goes in a straight line, folks, if you have profits as an investor don't give them all back, I would take at least some off and wait for a better reentry, even if I'm wrong so what? You got an amazing bounce/rally, don't be a hog and squeal like a pig.

If I'm right we should see S & P below 1000, potentially this week. If I'm wrong, watch 1050 as 1st big resistence, then 1075 and then we'd probably retest the recent highs and if we bust them and hold all bets are off and blue skies are in store. I don't see that happening, but hey, I've been wrong many times before and I'm sure I'll be wrong many times from here.

My 1st TREND SUCCESS radio show debuts tomorrow/Monday night 7 to 8 pm EST.

The show airs on CBS online radio channel; www.chataboutit.com

I'm going to follow up this post with some info about it tomorrow, but the show will be themed; SUCCESS...

it will have a stock focus for about 1/2 the show (the 1st half, with probably 10 minutes at the end as well for some calls stock specific) and the rest of the show will feature people from all walks of life who will discuss what it means to be a success in their chosen field, both professionally and personally.

Our 1st guest is a professor at Carnegie Mellon who works with some very very cool stuff, some of it straight out of a Star Trek episode. Bear in mind that the 1st couple I'm going to be just getting my feet wet and I hope by the 3rd or 4th episode the show will be really smooth. I have some seriously fantastic guests lined up, including some pretty huge names potentially, so check the show out, give a call in to say hi and wish me luck, or send me emails offering suggestions on guests.

Also, if you or someone you know would like to be on the show to share some success stories, please send me an email with the ideas; waxie@trendtrade.com

Thanks and look forward to ruling the week with ya!

Go to; www.chataboutit.com to check out the show tomorrow TREND SUCCESS from 7 to 8 pm EST!

RULE

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Like BUTTER...

That's what we did to all the supports, we sliced through them like BUTTER!

Now we look like a sure shot to S & P below 1000 potentially short term.

Having said that, GDP #s tommorrow 8:30 am and a main contributor to the drawdown today was Goldman saying GDP #s will be below consensus. So, the big question is, do we buy the news? I think so, I think as long as GDP is 2.5% or above, even if it misses the 3.2% estimate, we should get a VERY nice squeeze on the news. That's what I'm playing for, wrong or right.

If GDP is worse then 2.5% then I'm not sure and will play it by ear. I preface this by saying that I still think the game has changed and we are now in a BEARISH phase and on any squeeze we should be looking to reshort and reset the shorts.

Futures up here as I write this, but that is unlikely to last, Asia crushed and Europe likely to open down as well. And, fear about the GDP should outweight bargain hunters. They tried to prop us up Wednesday but were unable to, I do think it will be a nice setup if we gap down off those #s as stated above. I'm looking at the high Beta names to trade for the bounce. Key is money management, so setting stops if wrong is paramount. Also, don't overstay your welcome if we're right, hit and run baby, hit and run!

New range being carved out is much lower, S & P 1000 to 1050 now, from the 1050 to 1100 level were just at last week and until a couple days ago.

Just think that the way we are selling is fund related, not shorts and not traders. That's a bad sign for the market, people are taking profits here, it had to happen at some point. Have we seen highs of the year? I'd guess no, but for now I want to position myself with the crowd and that seems to be signaling another leg DOWN for this market on this move, even if we get the squeeze I think we will tomorrow. That's what makes trading, folks!

Either way, RULE and remember to sign up for - Michael "Waxie" Parness on Facebook and Trendfund on Twitter...

Michael "Waxie" Parness RULE

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Waxie

Why does this pullback smell a wee bit different?

ANSWER - cause it is.

Wednesday is a KEY day. If we can't mount a real bounce, not one of these phoney intraday BS ones, then we may be under 1050 on S & P, which is where the next real support comes into play here. Trip down to 1000 from there if that doesn't hold.

Dollar looks like it can run a bit, though they are using any rally to pile in short more. If there are any positive comments out of the Fed in support of the US Dollar it'll create a MASSIVE squeeze.

I don't think I've commented on the whole bank pay issue. I'm tired so I won't belabor it for now, but I am starting to wonder if this administration has actually started it's term. Maybe they still think Bush is in office? Maybe they all went hunting with Cheney. Whatever it is, I just don't get how these people make so many gaffes. Hey, I ain't remotely perfect, but doesn't it seem odd that in the same breath that they speak about "too big to fail" they continue to set things up so that only the few elite institutions (companies) can thrive? It has to be an across the board regulation, or none at all. I vote for across the board.

C, AIG, BAC and 4 others were singled out, with the logic being that the WFC, JPM, GS, MS of the world have repaid TARP and thus shouldn't be regulated.

Really? OK, so now what you are doing is two very bad things;

1)You are making it so that all the top people at C, AIG, BAC, et al end up at one of the elite firms because they can get paid outrageously.

2)You reward these companies that wouldn't even exist were it not for taxpayer/bailout monies, and in the case of GS and MS (GS in particular) they helped CREATE the very instruments of mass destruction that brought the countries economy to our knees.

The very same institutions that created derivatives that netted their firm and shareholders BILLIONS. Their execs BILLIONS in bogus bonuses, and now they get paid off AGAIN under the flawed logic that they should be allowed to do as they please because they "repaid" the taxpayers/us.

That is ridiculous to say the least and possibly the most flawed logic I've heard in a long time. How do you reward these firms? How are they not the ones on trial? I'm sorry, if you or I did any of these things we'd be facing the electric chair, or at the very least tasered, man.

Here is what has now been created;

1)These firms create derivatives, and help bring down the entire financial system as we know it, causing MILLIONS to suffer and causing the worst economic malestorm since the Great Depression.

2)They all but the very very elite go under, thus creating a monopoly basically, they let LEH and BSC fail, but they save GS and MS and WFC and GE and JPM.

3)On the day when GS and MS were surely going UNDER the government decides they now are going to rush in and save the markets, and GS gets a huge bounce, as does MS.

4)We give these firms taxpayer monies because their debt and derivatives levels are off the charts, again thus keeping them in business.

5)We reward them by letting them repay taxpayers at meager rates, and thus open the door for them to raise bonuses and pay to execs, and taking $16 BIL from AIG.

6)At the very least these companies should have given taxpayers a fair return on our money. They used our money to trade their way to BILLIONS in profits. Did anyone read their 10K's? Much of the profit was TRADING profits, not underwriting and such. Simple logic would dictate that US taxpayers should have gotten at the very least a legit hedge fund payout, which would be 75 to 80% of the profits. Instead, what did we get? Our money back plus a drizzle of interest?

7)They continue to borrow money at nearly 0% interest and then gauge depositors and taxpayers with absurd interest rates so that they can scramble to repay TARP. Why? Not because they want to repay tax payers, no no way, but rather so they can then pay outrageous bonuses and get out from under taxpayer thumbs.

I don't know, everyone I know, including me, makes a helluva lot less then we did a few years, or even last year. Where is it written that bankers and brokers should make these crazy salaries while people across the country get booted from their homes and while people lose their jobs at these very same institutions?

Look, I believe that if you generate money you should make as much money as possible, but the issue is that the profits generated were and still are phoney. And, many are just appointed to posts and haven't made anything for the firm.

yet, what do we do? We make C get rid of a top notch trader who actually added value and profits to C bottom line, helping to repay taxpayers because he justifiably made money and should get paid for his talents.

Did someone say "ass backwards knuckleheadedness?"

Yeah, it was me - waxie.

In the meantime as I write futures have now turned red. I suspect we try to rally at some point Wednesday, we may even hold it and squeeze, it is the 4th day and that often times is the day we bounce. But, I doubt it'll last.

The pullback smells a wee bit different, we'll see if it ends up tasting different as well, or if its just an excuse for buyers to rush in for the so-called "bargains".

Watch V earnings reaction, stock gapped down large off earnings, but then popped to nicely green fast, some like LVS may do same. Also watch $15 level on BAC as that is key for that stock.

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Wowsa...

Did ya catch that late day crash? I have to admit, I didn't see it coming. I thought we'd rally right into the close and top 1100 and stay there for a day. NOT quite as Dick Bove, the famed analyst who kept saying that LEH was a BUY right up to the day it went under came out and said WFC is a SELL. That was after in the am he said that WFC and MS would lead the financials higher for the day.

Sweet! The beauty of being an analyst, I guess.

In the meantime, today's selloff SHOULD be meaningful. Normally I'd be way way way short off the close today, but it's tough to do that in this market, so I'd rather just wait til tomorrow.

I had a very nice morning so I finished well green on the day, but needless to say I was up a helluva lot more early then I was late and end of day.

EBAY's #s sucked, but the stock didn't really sell off huge. This market just gives out more and more mixed messages. THough, once again, the GAP FADE worked wonderfully as we gapped down and then cranked. I made most of my money for the day on that move. I guess I shouldn't quit right after that, but that's not my style and we did look higher, until we didn't of course.

Thursday I would be shorting any early strength. Baring some news we should get some follow through to the downside. I don't want to overstay my welcome any more then I did today, that's for sure and would rather play it close to the belt until we get smoother sailing either way.

I'll be out most of tommorrow but will be around late day to do a market cast class around end of trading day. Stay tuned!

RULE!

Waxie

Market mayhem...

So, when does Gold hit $2500? When does the stock market hit 25,000?

And, when does the US Dollar hit 10% of its current value?

There is a direct correlation between all.

It's interesting, I am asked literally every day about GOLD now. I used to never get asked that. When I called GOLD to $400 when it was low $200s, then $500 when it hit $400 and then $1000 from there, no one really cared to even think about it. At the time I had bought 100 ounces of Gold in the $200s. Obviously I wish I had bought 1000 ounces, but isn't that always the case?

I am recommending Real Estate now. I don't own much, mind you, but I think its worthwhile to own some if you are an investor now. I didn't feel that way until recently as most of you know, but with the dollar cratering eventually hard assets have to go up and Real estate is definately a hard asset.

Having said that, I expect the Fed to make a stand for the dollar like they used to do with the Yen when Japan had all its issues a few years ago. Other countries that have US debt (read CHINA) aren't going to let the dollar just up and die and become worthless so fast. Eventually? They may not have a choice, but for now? No shot.

The setup that the government is fatally flawed. If you devalue the dollar you increase the stock market which further seperates the "haves" for the "have nots", the distinction becomes even more apparent. You are rewarding the very people and institutions that have brought this country to the verge of civil unrest, and insolvency. It's so insane it would make Machavelli smile and give everyone at the big brokerages and banks high fives.

Most people in this country are not invested in the stock market in any kind of real way. The people who are are the rich. Did you notice how nervous both houses were when the stock market cratered last year? I mean, do ya think it had anything to do with their net worth, or they really gave crap about the common folk? Hmmm.

Yeah,I know I'm jaded, sucks. But, its unfortunately the way it is. It's reality. I wish it weren't so. Same as I wish the Mets didn't suck so bad and they were actually the Yankees. That would be really cool, and really a fantasy that can't ever happen.

The falling dollar hurts everyone except those that have enough to weather it. They can then swoop in and further destroy the class(es) economically below them by buying up all the land and then charging them more to rent it out from them. It's very disturbing. So much so that even someone with a couple mil needs to worry. The term millionaire used to have some meaning, now it just means middle class.

The market has to go up as long as the dollar weakens. It is now officially pegged to the dollar. It'll be interesting to see what WFC and MS do post earnings tomorrow.

I would watch DRYS here as well. That sector is a notable laggard and it will have to get going if we are going to get another leg higher. I'm unsure here, this market is very schizoid. I like trading it intraday, but swinging stuff other then a couple earnings plays is difficult to do. AAPL on a break and hold over $200 mid-day should lead it over $204 and there it becomes blue skies breakout city and $225 may be next stop. I am not long it, no shot, just observing. I wasn't there for most of the wedding, I don't want to be there if it dies and has a funeral. I've sat Shiva enough the last year, trust me.

In the meantime, let's see what shakes out, earnings are still working. Watch EBAY with YAHOO's move it should get some momo into its own earnings if YHOO holds up, which is a big if, but it very well may.

I'm also eyeing the casino's for a reentry on LVS. I'd love $15 as a entry, we'll see soon enough as the market tips its hand!

RULE!

Waxie

I'm on www.chataboutit.com at 9:20 pm est TONIGHT

On the "Political Chick" show on CBS online radio with Lisa Chase to dish on Real Estate and the markets.

Tune in and find out what up...

RULE

Waxie

www.chataboutit.com

Did the DOW hit 10,000 this week?

Hmm, just checking.

Wheeeee. Nice catch, very very nice indeed! We are ROCKIN' and I must say that I am lovin' spoonful it, to say the least...

In the am GS is next in line to blow out. I guess anything is possible, maybe the FED told GS to miss on purpose so they don't get the public backlash they are about due. Maybe, but probably not. Oh, well, one can hope that people catch on to the nightmare before Christmas that Wall Street has become. Total joke, but what can ya do, other then try to rake in the BIG Ka-chingos! Nada, baby, nada.

It's so cool listening to the talking heads just go on and on about the amazing turnaround that only exists in fiction. Maybe "Where the Wild Things Are" really refers to the analysts on Wall Street. Good thing the movie opens this weekend so perhaps they will stay on screen and away from the boozin' and the losin'.
This rally just keeps chuggin' away in a total confluence of oddity, shock and awe, windows dressing mark-ups, earnings runners and lowered expectations leading to phoney blowouts. Very very cool, very very manipulated and very very profitable if ya listen to the TRENDS.

So now we're over 10,000 and we're off to 11,000, right? Perhaps, perhaps not. It'll totally depend on what the rest of earnings season looks like. It should be interesting for you guys and gals to note that the stocks blowing out are the ones UNDER performing the market. That's the way this works and it should be duly noted. It's better to buy GOOG on INTC blowout then it is to buy INTC on INTC blowout. Why? Because regardless of whether INTC goes to $25 like the booyahheads of the world say, GOOG hasn't reported yet, so the fantasy is still intact that GOOG could really destroy earnings, which they probably will. INTC already destroyed them, so there isn't any excitement. Same with JPM, GS was up a helluva lot more, and even MS was up more and neither of them is a sure thing to blow out (wink, wink!).

So, the key, I've found over the years, is to "front run" earnings. Get stuff before everyone piles in. Not after.

Watch IBM and GOOG. IBM almost always crushes, but the stock is up sick, so is GOOG which days ago was under $500 and is now rushing toward $550.

It's interesting, or warped, that many stocks are either close to or over (JPM,IBM,INTC) where they were before the crisis hit. It's as though it never happened, as though their businesses are actually in better shape then they were pre-meltdown. It's ridiculous, but this is why we have an edge.

Just remember, as always, it's all BS and the best thing you can do is remember that - it's all BS!

If you do that, you can make money in the market. If you don't then you're just another victim, a statistic since most investors lose money in the end. Don't be one of the dummies, please.

RULE!

See ya on the other side of dumminess -

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*If you have any Yankee tics please email me, I'm interested - waxie@trendtrade.com

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Below you will find a description of the MarketCast (aka After Market Wrap) with Michael “Waxie” Parness and a link to a 2 week Free Trial.



After Market Wrap With Michael Parness – Twice a week – 4:45PM – 5:45PM EST



I’m very excited to introduce a brand new service to help you learn more about trading.

I’ll be hosting LIVE Trading Workshops twice a week from 4:45P EST - 5:45P EST.

These workshops will teach you trading strategies and techniques I’ve learned by making hundred’s of thousands of trades and through thousands of hours of trend research.



The market is always changing and you need to learn about the changes. Trading is a

learning process. I learn something from almost every one of my trades. I think my vast

experience can save you from making the same mistakes I did.



These educational classes will give you insights into how I find trades. They will also explain why stocks behave the way they do when specific news like earnings, hit’s the wire. If you’re interested in becoming a successful trader, I think these classes will prove invaluable. Getting a trade from someone is one thing. Being able to find profitable trading opportunities for the rest of your trading life is better.



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DOW 10,000 coming to a theater near you...THIS WEEK!

I will be shocked if the DOW doesn't hit 10,000 this week. SHOCKED.

There ya have it, no fuss, no muss, we will hit 10,000 this week on the DOW. What's it mean? Nothing, but it'll make a nice BS headline and give the talking heads something to talk about, that's always pleasant.

Now, it is possible that we don't, of coursee, I just will be shocked for several reasons.

#1 - this close almost always means we hit a solid round # mark like that.

#2 - We have INTC, GS, GOOG, and other earnings this week and they all should be well above consensus. What competition does GS have now? ZERO, they killed everyone else off in the greatest scheme of all time. It makes the Raid on Entebe (sp?) look like child's play. INTC and GOOG are trading like they are gonna blow out. I think it pretty safe to assume we get a further bump baring some really bad news, or if the Fed comes out and says that they are going to support the US Dollar with all their might and stop printing money as though it were cream cheese.

Seems unlikely, doesn't it?

I think its fairly safe to start playing stuff into earnings, or if you are a client, just keep doing what we've been doing. JPM, BAC both report this week as well. So does C which could get a very nice bump as well.

Remember also, Options Expiration week trends to have an upward bias, and either way has a TRENDING bias, meaning it usually goes one way or the other for 3 or 4 days and has a reveral often the other day(s) that can trend as well. So, should be a very nice trading week for us.

If you haven't checked out the Marketcast that I do twice a week, I urge you to do so! I think you'll find it well worthwhile and you get to hear me twice a week live, and on camera (scary as that may be to some).

Also, get ready, I'm doing a new Radio show on; www.chataboutit.com The show is going to focus on SUCCESS and not just stocks (though stocks will be a big part of it). The idea is to discuss and chat about how one becomes sucessful in any and all aspects of their lives, including money, job (if you're happy in your job money is less important, sometimes, I think, hehe), relationships, sex, etc.

I'm also going to be doing a "pitch" portion of the show where you can call in and pitch an idea to me and experts in different fields. So, if you have an idea please email me at - waxie@trendtrade.com and if I like it we'll get you on the line on the show to pitch the idea. Now, before you tell me that you're worried I'll steal your idea, I wouldn't. And, before you are worried about someone else stealing your idea, well, the show Shark Tank is an example of why that isn't a valid concern, really. If you have an idea you need to get it out there and if you get it out there to the right people then we can hopefully help you get it done. If it stays in your head, well, then what's the point anyway?

Email me at - waxie@trendtrade.com with any and all ideas and if you want to be a guest on the show and have a book, show, idea, or story you think will interest others as far as the theme of SUCCESS goes, please by all means email me ASAP and I will see if it fits.

The show will air live from 7 to 8 pm EST every Monday starting in two weeks on, again - www.chataboutit.com. It's CBS's new online radio station and it airs across AOL and YAHOO and is building momentum. I'm very excited about doing it.

Also, keep it on your calander because stock wise we will have things to discuss every show, and I'll point out setups I see, etc. And, I'll try to have cool guests stock wise as well. If you are a stock analyst or trader with a story, email me that as well. I'm open to just about anything that is interesting, so give me a shout! I'll get back to you right away regardless either way.

Very exciting indeed, please do put it on the calenar and send me your thoughts!

waxie@trendtrade.com

RULE and watch EARNINGS, they will provide direction, if we start to sell off all these stocks post earnings it will foretell a market top more then likely. If they keep going, then DOW 10,000 may be just a start! One viewer here noted that AA is now below where it closed pre-earnings. That's very true and we'll see if that trend (well, not a trend, but...we'll see if it becomes one!) continues.

RULE!

Email me about the show, or anything else!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

EARNINGS RUNNING...

The BULL, or more appropriately, the EARNINGS BULL is back in full force a few days after the first major pullback in the market in a very long time (since March). 6% isn't a huge pullback, but the way this market has skyrocketed it sure is.

With AA blowing out as the first major earnings report and the futures smoking HOT as I write this, we should at least retest the recent highs, and there's a better then decent shot we're about to touch 10,000 here. I have to say, a pretty impressive move regardless. Man, the futures are romping, up 11 on the S & P already. We're very very close to the yearly highs here. That's a very important level to watch, it should act as an initial resistence, but if we pop over that watch for a squeeze that could bring us to 1100s in a jiff (by pop I mean a sustained move above the highs of the year, not just touching it or briefly popping above it).

It's interesting, I have been trading the market for a while now, since 1998, and I teach and believe in the way my "system" works wholeheartedly, but I still am in awe when I see the same trends work time and again. Granted, I thought we'd get a little more of a post Window Dressing pullin, but 6% was a very nice short profit move which we caught, and now I'm long and obviously happy about it. Though I did sell the GOOG calls I had at the end of the day today, which I will regret for sure if the futures move holds up.

I think this could be the move that gets BAC to $20s and JPM to $50, but we'll see, I don't want to get ahead of myself, perhaps this will be another fake out on the way to 10,000 and we go back down. I just don't see it unless earnings start stinking and the bulls have this set up pretty scary good for a lot of big beats.

Watch the metals off AA earnings; X should see at least $50, NUE, CENX, etc all should get nice moves. FCX could be $100 stock into earnings if we really motor.

Keep in mind, I would not buy a big gap up, it goes against all my rules, but if we start rocking post 10 am, I think you might want to have a plan and a list of stocks you want to get aboard. If we drop dead then it'll never triggger and either way make sure you set stops!

For disclosure sake, of the stocks I mentioned herein, I own the following;

BAC calls
X stock
NUE stock
AA stock

Don't chase! I got emails today asking about GOLD. I own some gold myself, wish I owned more, but if this is your entry, while it may pay off, I have no idea if you should buy it here now, tough call. It could easily go to 1100+,or it could pull back to 950 and not cause much technical damage.

If you're up tonight at 2 am EST, check out MY FINANCIAL POWER MAKEOVER, the new infomercial. It's airing on CNBC.

Also, end of the month I'm doing my 1st solo radio show, a 1 hour show on SUCCESS on CBS's online radio network. I'm very excited and if anyone wants to send me a pitch for business ideas, one of the segments is going to be where people pitch me their ideas for new businesses. I'm also looking for interesting people to interview, so send along your suggestions, and any contacts. The show will also have a segment on Technical Analysis and about 1/2 the show will be dedicated to stocks alone, the rest will be other things related to Success.

And, with that, I'll wish you all your own success!

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

JOBLESS THIS MOFO...

I am so so freakin' sick of hearing about the "jobless recovery" that supposedly exists, let alone is possible.

I've written extensively about this topic, and so I'm going to exhaust it here tonight and probably only bring it up a few hundred more times. Having said that, I'm going to puke all over myself projectile green Exorcist vomit style if I hear it again on TV or anywhere else.

Is it clear that I think its possibly the dumbest catch phrase ever? I hope so. We simply can not have any real lasting recovery unless there is JOB stimulus, unless unemployment starts to reverse, and not just slow down. Unemployment is well over 12% at this point, its probably closer to 15%. Recoveries come because comsumption picks up. People consume more because they are earning more. If you have so many people unemployed then you can't have those things, can you? I know a ton of people who are out of work. They sit on Facebook and Twit all day and some (many) have given up looking for jobs. Unless you can eat Facebook, or live in a Twitter account they aren't consuming much of anything except for AIR!

So, now that that's clear the market is headed into earnings season here and got a shot in the arm from the evil ones when GS upgraded the large banking sector to "attractive". Either that signals a market top near term, or they were really buying and we can get another pop here back to the highs. Tough call, but I would think we have a shot to try the highs unless earnings start collapsing. That doesn't seem likely on such short notice (off last 1/4s #s) but ya never know.

I'm beat, going to hit the hey, catch ya all manana.

RULE

Waxie

Thanks...and market mayhem = trader profits!

Thanks for all the emails and advice regardling my Chase situation. I actually got a couple of great ideas, I think. And, I even took one suggestion and who knows it might even pay off. Someone suggested I call Jamie Diamon the CEO of JP Morgan/Chase directly since when he was on Capital Hill a few months ago he stated that he would personally talk to any depositor who had issues. So, that's what I did, I called Mr. Dimon and while I didn't get to speak to him directly *yet* I did speak to his executive assistant, or at least one of them and she was very helpful and eager to help after I explained the situation and gave her the ADA's # to call.

So, we'll see what happens. If I don't get any relief I will call Jamie again and ask him to keep his word.

I also got 1 email which I'd publish here, but frankly it was way too disturbing to do and I don't want to give the guy the airtime. I was compared to Nazi's and it was very hateful, to say the least. I tell ya, I don't know what makes some people tick, I have better things to do then read hate emails from anti-semites, or just anti-Waxie's. Keep in mind, I really appreciate constructive criticism, I do, but I'm a sensitive dude, so keep it sane and constructive or keep it to yourself.

In the meantime, the market continues to perform according to the TRENDS, with the post-Window Dressing two days proving the Trends out! We nailed both days and I think we are pretty much as rocking as you can rock. Friday was a great trading day, with not 1, but TWO fabulous fades - one off the job #s and one off the Manufacturing data. These fades have been working for some time and if you play them, knock on wood, it's been like taking candy from a chipmonk. I mean, seriously, it's been very very SWEET!

Next week should go a long tway toward establishing what we're gonna do til year end. We very well should bounce soon, again, but I do suspect a larger pullback may be at hand. The key will be toward the end of the week. The beginning of the week should be choppy and murky and I suspect tough to trade, but we'll see if they really want to push us higher shortly. We are now making lower lows after spending a few months straight making higher highs and technically it's either just the post Window Dressing blues with some funds and such taking some money off the table, or its the beginning of reality setting in. The stimulus packages can't possibly work and any announcement of a new one, while surely welcomed by the market, will ultimately leave us even more vulnerable as a country long term.

I went long the US Dollar and short stocks end of the day Wednesday. A very nice paired trade indeed! Buying puts on stocks was and is easy, going long the dollar was very hard to do, its nerve wrecking to be long something that you know the government wants to crush. It is very clear that the policy officially is to crush the dollar, make our debt cheaper and make it easier to export goods since the costs to others is cheaper. The problems of this policy are so insane it's beyond belief. While most of the wealth is with a very small % of the population (roughly 2% of the people have more money then the other 98% combined!) so the thinking is that it only affects the rich to devalue the currency and redistributes wealth ultimately, this thinking is vastly flawed and moronic. It's very ill concieved and it can't work as an end game. Destroying currency doesn't do anything but give another short term insignificant boost to manufacturers. Unless the psychology of the nation is changed there won't be any hiring and with the dollar worth less then any benefit of a higher minimum wage (most manufacturing jobs are low paying ones) is offset, and inflation has to continue to go higher and higher, thus there are more unemployed making a lot less in real dollar terms. That's a very very dangerous combo and one that potentially could act as a catalyst to extremism and anarchy. Creating poverty is never a good thing. It will never happen, but creating a fairer tax system that slides would be a far better and sounder economic policy. It should happen, but because the word "raise" in relation to the word "taxes" is political suicide only. Another reason why the powers that be don't really serve the country, they serve themselves and their job security far too often unfortunately. Someone should have the gonads to just do the right thing, regardless of whether they get reelected or not, that would be refreshing.

Thing is, I don't mind paying more taxes if its a fair system, and I think the top money earners should pay more taxes, but the definition of top earners in this country is distorted. For example, the talk is that people who make roughly $250,000 or more start to get taxed more. Now, granted, $250,000 a year is a decent wage, if you live on the East Coast, or some other parts of the US surviving on much less if you have a family to support is very hard. What about a sliding tax that moves higher and higher the more you make. Someone making $250,000 shouldn't be taxed anywhere near the same rate as someone making $25 MIL a year and someone making $25 MIL a year shouldn't be taxed at the same rate as someone making $250 MIL a year. Our system is and has helped to give most of the wealth in this country to a very select and very powerful select few. I'm not rich, not at all, despite the perception. I've been blessed to live in a country where someone like me can move a wee bit up the economic food chain, but ultimately that's the exception, not the rule and the land of the American dream is being turned into the land of opportuntity for very few. It's near impossible to move up the economic food chain here, which is rather disturbing but true.

But, hey, this is all just one knuckleheads opinion, and I could certainly be off. I do know that we're not inspiring people or business to hire more, quite the contrary and that ultimately there is no such thing as a so-called "jobless recovery". It is fiction. You can't have a recovery with unemployment at staggering rates, sorry. That's not recovery, that's systematic meltdown and very sad. My heart goes out to all who are suffering, hand in there and frankly speaking, I do feel strongly that trading is a way for a lot of people to make a living, not have to rely on someone else and if you can master it then you have the opportuntiy to move yourself up the economic food chain. It's one of the few jobs where there is no ceiling, and I for one love that about it.

We'll see what shakes out here market wise. I think I'm going to have my own radio show shortly on chataboutit.com which is a CBS affiliate I believe. Hopefully you'll all tune in, and call in. More details to follow, and if some of you want to be guests on the show, send me an email and why you want to be and why you should be. And, if you know someone everyone else should or would like to hear from, send me their contact info and I'll see if I can make it happen if it makes sense.

Oh, one more thing, I saw INGLORIOUS BASTERDS last night, I have to say, that dude is one talented filmmaker. Wow, what an amazing film, for me it lived up to the hype and is definately the best film I've seen in a long long time. Simply brilliant,if you haven't seen it, you should.

'Nuff said, on to my daughters soccer game! Peace and love to all.

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*Have you purchased my new book "RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT" yet? Please log onto Amazon.com and go order it now! It's a must read and has gotten some amazing reviews! Let me know how ya like it!

BLAST OFF...

Zoom Zoom...Zoom...Zoom........Zoom?

Where we going? Nobody knows, but everybody says they do. That's the market. It's the old cliche - "opinions are like A-holes, everybody has one!"

No offense to anyone who doesn't.

In the meantime, I need to vent so if you don't want to hear me vent no need to read on. I am going to BLAST OFF about JP Morgan CHASE. Let me know what you think, or perhaps you can write to them or boycott them or whatever ya like. I am so annoyed with them its beyond belief. Maybe one of my newspaper friends can take up the cause. This is why banks SUCK, or at least one of the many reasons;

1)In early July I took my kids and a sitter to Woodloch Lodge in PA for a long weekend to relax, go fishing, play games and have fun with my girls. It's a GREAT place to spend quality time with your kids if you are on the East coast I highly recommend it. OK, so the dates were early July, the July 4th weekend. We got back I think on the 6th.

When we checked out I had a standing balance of $144 that needed to be charged. They went to put it through and wha-la, my credit card was declined. Now, ok, maybe business is off like everyone else's, but it ain't that bad!

So, I call the credit card company on the way home and ask why. They tell me that there has been suspicious activity on my card. I ask them how charging $144 was suspicious and they said that I didn't tell them I was going out of state. To which I replied that I didn't know they were my mother and I had to tell them where I was going! The guy laughed and then said something like - "oh, you were in PA?" Yeah, I was. You weren't in NYC the last two days? No, I wasn't. Well, did you charge roughly $7000 at Louis Vouton (sp?) and another roughly $7000 at Bergdorf GOodman? Ah, no, I didn't, I was in PA. I then asked him how the hell they declined my $144 charge in PA but didn't do a dang thing about $14,000 in fraudulent charges in NYC at places I NEVER EVER shop at!

OK, so he said I needed to file a claim and the bank would take care of it. I said ok, fine.

So, that's exactly what I did immediately. I filed the claim and thought that was that, they would obviously credit my account the $14,088.

Right?

WRONG!

They denied the claim saying that the signatures matched and thus the case is closed.

Huh? How could the signatures match since I didn't sign it? Well, sir, they do and we're very sorry but the case is shut.

OK, so obviously I said a few more choice things (I was nice, though, I realize it isn't the persons fault who is taking the call). I was livid.

2)I went to the local police station and filed a criminal complaint. The police were awesome, I have to say. Within days they said they had a suspect and I spoke to Detective Llyod several times. Very attentive, very professional and very compassionate. I was impressed.

3)A few days later I get another call, the Assistant DA calls me and says they apprehended the suspect and he admitted that he did the charges. He asked me to sign a paper for the Grand Jury saying that I didn't have posession of the card the days in question, which I did. That was today.

4)I called CHASE again and was told the same thing, that there's no way for Chase to play detective (thank God, they are bad enough at as it is) and they are still denying my claim, the signatures match.

5)I call the ADA back and ask him if the signatures match. He basically laughs and says that not only don't the signatures remotely match, but on the bill is the suspects actual name! It isn't even my name! So, no, the signatures don't remotely match, nor do the names.

6)I called CHASE back again and this time asked to speak to the Supervisor again. He said the same thing, the case is closed, but he then lied to me I believe because he says that Chase filed a complaint with the Better Business Bureau. I pressed him on this and he retracted it saying that they hadn't filed but would. I told him what the ADA said and asked him to call the ADA. He said he couldn't and that was that, sorry. BUT, Chase values my business! Since I've been there for over 10 years and have many accounts with them, I'm sure they do. I asked him why they would basically be complicit in a crime (I was being dramatic, sort of) and then tell me they value my business. He said he was sorry (they say that more then my kids do for breaking something).

So, now what? Now I have to go after Chase to get my $14,088 dollars, spend hours upon hours dealing with this nonsense, and pay an attorney to do something that Chase should have been gracious enough to do. They are supposed to cover this, that's what I have always been told. I guess not.

So, there it is, my rant of the night. I am so pissed off. #1 it sucks someone stealing your identity. #2 it sucks someone stealing $14,000 from ya #3 it sucks that the bank that is supposed to cover you and protect your money says F-you basically. #4 Now I have to spend time and money to deal with it

OK, so it's not a trade, but hey, this is my blog and I needed to vent. I get all kinds of stories from you guys and gals, hehe, so there ya go. Man, I tell ya, I lose more and more respect for these banks every day. If someone told me this story I'd be sick for them. I want justice!

As far as the market goes, short CHASE! SHORT THE BANKS!

Well, ok, in all fairness my sorted story has nothing to do with trading, I do like the banks short here, though, and I do think we pull in and I do like the dollar to get a temporary but potentially vicious squeeze here to start the new quarter.

We'll see soon enough, I own some puts and will reverse if we break to the upside. As I've been saying, watch 1050 on the S & P, that's STRONG pivot and will tell us which way we are gonna go here, either below 1000 or to new yearly highs. We ain't sitting still, that I can assure ya!

Trade 'em, don't own 'em!

RULE

Michael "Waxie" Parness

It's time - HELL'S BELLS...

I saw AC/DC more then any band I've ever seen, other then maybe the Pretenders and the Clash. But, that was many moons ago and these days I'm more likely to see the Jonas Brothers and Miley Cyrus or Katey Perry with my girls then I am the Boss or U2. And, of course Chissy Hyde is like 90 and Bon Scott is long ago gone, but not forgotten, and of course Joe Strummer ain't strummin' on this planet any longer.

And, gone are the good ole days of the market being run by fundementals, or value engines. The market is now run by the government, and the friends of the friends are privy to info that no one should be. The rich get richer and the poor, well, they are plum out of luck.

A guy I never read in the NY Post actually did a nice job of getting some revealing info related to Paulson and the calls he made to GS the day last Sept. when the market found what at the time was a near term bottom, and what definately saved GS from going under. The day GS was ready, willing and able to go the way of LEH and BSC Paulson apparently was on the phone with GS all day. In fact, he seems to have called GS more then he called Bernanke. Does anyone really doubt that GS had the inside skinny on what was about to unfold and that the Fed intervened at the exact moment when poster child for greed and evil, the NY Yankees of Wall Street was about to meet the Grim Reaper of insolvency itself? If you do, please stand up and then kindly sit your dumbass down again and let me sell you a piece of the Brooklyn bridge!

And, of course, who has made more money trading this market then I have, and probably everyone else combined has since that fateful day? Take 1 wild guess, and I think you'll pin the tail right on that donkey boys puck marked face, babies and gentlemen.

And, now that we've just had the best quarter possibly in the history of the US stock market, now what? I have been pointing to Oct. as the month when we finally do get that selloff everyone's been waiting for. The market looks poised to drop. How far and if it'll actually happen remains to be seen, but I would not want to be long here past tomorrow for swings, at least until we prove we can bust and hold 1075on the S & P on a close, which so far we've been unable to do. The trend is clearly still in UP mode, but I think we will get a pullin here shortly and while I'm not betting the house, I'm willing to go on record saying such. If I'm wrong, then I'm long and if I'm right then I'm light. I can't lose...at least I think that's the case, right?

I talked about it in my Marketcast class tonight, 1050 on the S & P remains a VERY VERY key #. If we can't hold that here we should and could easily fall to below 1000 VERY VERY quickly, which is what I think may very well happen.

Will it? We shall see, yes, we shall see soon enough. And, one way or another the only sure thing is, I have tickets to Z-100 Jingle Balls in December and probably I'll be seeing Lady Gaga and thinking about what Chrissy woulda looked like in those outfits she wears.

Hmmmmm.

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*Look for our new infomercial, it's finally rolling out next week on a Cable station near you!!!

The blue algae problem...

So apparently there is killer algae out there infecting humans and killing animals.
I think that the same can be said about the banking system and some of the initiatives that are being thrown at the flooding dam. I have officially given up on this new administration doing anything worth a dang. It's unfortunate, but for all the tough talk and wonderful "hopeful" promises, we are still run by the lobbies and the banks. When exactly is Goldman repaying the $13 BILLION they got from taxpayers in the AIG fiasco? Or, is the check in the mail and she won't get pregnant if they do it standing up?

In the meantime, whilst I hold my breath and wait for someone to actually do the right thang, this market is so ready to roll over it's ridiculous. We should get that one last nice push up into quarters end here early this week but then I think we'll see the selloff everyone's been waiting a while for. The dollar reversal should be a good place to short and the market could then get another bounce on dollar weakness (or re-weakness). The trend continues in that the markets rise is 100% correlated to dollar weakness. As the dollar gets devalued then all commodities should rise lock step with the fall of our virtually worthless currency.

For Window Dressing I am watching the small China plays I have mentioned before here.

In the mean-meantime, does anyone have any Yankee playoff tickets that are decent they want to do me a favor and sell me? Or, I'll trade for coaching or other services? Or, I'll buy you dinner if that works as well.



Best and RULE as always -

Waxie

The Grim Reaper...

Well, nailed that open, and the day pretty much, eh? What an easy fade that was, my gads.

So, here's the deal. I make this statement, you can tell me I suck if I'm wrong, that's ok. WE're just about ready to lose this market, and thus lose 1000 on the S & P.

Best case here we get one more push into Oct. 1st, but either way I sold all my longs and am now officially not bullish. I'm in trader elite mode, I want to be mostly, if not all cash and I want to be nimble. I want to play the open and I want to trade the ranges. I do not want to commit to longs for more then technical bounces here. I think we're likely to start getting some breakdowns off key technical supports.

I think 800s S & P is likely before year end. We should get a wide range to trade, though, which is great even if I'm wrong. It''s unlikely to be a straight shot here either way. Just play the ranges, folks, play the ranges!

RIMM after hours got SLAUGHTERED, I mean, total death. It'll be interesting to see how far down they drag AAPL and other tech. Or, does it just set up a squeeze. I have to say, I was thisclose to buying some puts on RIMM right at the close, obviously regret not doing so, but it was the right move not to take that trade, it seemed too easy.

I think any stock disappointing will get murdered here, look out belowwwwww.

Did ya catch AONE? Nice call, eh? Nice trade. Let's see what shakes from here, I would put it on the radar as that will be one to trade on breakouts and off supports in days and weeks ahead, it should remain a pretty hot stock.

Also watch ART, which IPOed as well, has great pedigree and I suspect it gets a rush off of any real drawdown as well.

We'll see what shakes out, and thanks for all the heads up and great emails, keep 'em coming!

RULE!

Waxie

Test here...

Look for a gap fade assuming we get one either way. Usually FOMC week the day after follows the day of, so a gap up is definately fadeable short in my opinion.

That was a wicked selloff post FOMC, it'll either be a one day wonder or a more extended move down. Its interesting here since we're a week out of end of the quarter, but have that weekend in a couple of days so anything can happen here in front of that. The wicked selling could be ominous that the Emperor finally is starting to realize it has no clothes, or...just another buying op!

Thanks for the comments about last nights post. I'm tired late at night, what can ya do if I get a little dark sometimes, but as always I appreciate the comments, even if they don't agree with mine. Hey, that's America baby, and that's why ya gotta represent.

As I write this futures are muted.

Big IPO coming today as well, AONE. It'll be interesting to see what they open it at. If it opens reasonable its a good buy, but more then likely it'll get bid to kingdom come. Best would be if we had a really down am and it came in the midst of that, get a decent open and I would buy it and see if I can catch a few points. Otherwise will just sit back and enjoy the fireworks!

In the meantime, make sure you protect your gains here, folks! You been warned! End of quarter sometimes starts a wee bit early and while I can still see us hitting 10k here shortly, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw our peaks for the moment either. Yeah, I'm non-commital here, I'd rather just be nimble.

There's a Chinese stock I like and own small that is under accumulation it appears. I'm trying to get some more info and will tell clients as soon as I do, but so far what I know I like it a lot...stay tuned!

RULE!

Waxie

FEAR...loathing...and window dressing...

I get asked all the time what clients should do when they have a nice fat profit. Should they just sell and take the monster ka-chingos, or should they sell partial, or should they sell none of it and keep riding.

My answer is #1 I can't answer what you should do, I can only say what I would and have done. And, that's all of the above depending on the situation, but my pat answer would almost always be -

1)Make sure you book some profits as the trade goes your way.
2)Let your profits run, while trailing with stops so that if it reverses you don't get killed on a trade you should have ROCKED on!
3)Most of all be proactive, don't just sit there and sway in the breeze, make sure you protect profits and if you see them falter take decisive and quick action. Don't let a small problem become a big one.

I've been thinking alot lately about the bigger picture and I've come to the conclusion that this is a microcosm of the world, or more perhaps OUR world (US of A).

What seems obvious to me isn't always obvious to someone else until/unless they get hit over the head, or lose too much being stubborn.

See, thing is, I get pissed off every time I go to a sports game (Mets/Nets/Jets) and the "security" barely pats me or anyone else down. I get pissed off when the airplanes don't search people before they get into the terminal. And, I get mad when just about anyone can come into the schoolyard where my daughters go to school.

Why are people allowed to do this? It's simple, we have become a fast food nation where we can sit back and relax and we don't seem to think it worthwhile to do anything until after the fact. I remember this block by my house when I was growing up and EVERYONE, including the police, knew that it was a very dangerous block and that traffic didn't stop sometimes when kids crossed and that sooner or later someone was going to get killed...and that's what did happen. I don't recall the whole event, but I remember a little girl getting run over and killed and THEN the city put in a stop sign. And, I remember back then thinking "Why didn't they put that stop sign in BEFORE that little girl was killed." We should be more proactive, at some point does anyone doubt there will be another terrorist attack, or two, or 10? And, that's why I hate not being searched.

And, so you say "Waxie, what does this have to do with the stock market?" Well, like I said, its a mircrocosm of market psychology, and vice versa. In the market it's better to take some profits then it is to try to catch tops. Then you are a mere mortal and no longer a G-d.

Be proactive, I've said this here before, it would be great if our leaders had VISION and could plan for the inevitable dangers before they happened. Same can and I am saying about the market. We very well should see 10k this week but I'm not sure beyond that, I just know that right now the complacency meter is off the charts. Everyone thinks the market is just going to keep going, and hey, it may, but I prefer to trade a tad tighter and if I miss a move, I miss a move.

Another saying for clients "Don't be in such a rush to lose your money!" VISION folks, VISION. And, yeah, I think you should write to your congressman or woman and tell them to get proactive.

RULE!

Waxie

BIG WEEK ahead...and more...

This week is gonna be very telling. We are so overextended its absurd. The bears keep making this case and they keep getting completely crushed. The bull case is that the economy is turning, earnings are on their way higher as estimates were/are too low and that in the coming months as the economy picks up steam, so will the market. Further, the dollar is weakening and money has to go somewhere if its coming out of the dollar. When the dollar weakens the natual assumption is that hard assets will benefit. That includes commodities (metals, agriculture, oil), Gold (can be lumped into commodities, but it's main value is a perceived hedge against inflation and dollar weakness), and real estate. It also can include the stock market since as the dollar weakens it means that a $50 stock is actually worth as much as the dollar is worth comparatively. In other words, if the dollar were to weaken by let's say 50% then a $50 stock in theory is worth $75. That's part of what most pundits don't ever bring up. And, in my opinion its the a much bigger piece of the puzzle then anything else that is spoken about or analyzed. It's also one very real danger sign in terms of the long term stability best case and viability of the US economy.

I am hesitant to speak about certain things that remotely seem like a large conspiracy, but suffice to say that I'm not happy about the way the government is handling this situation, not in the least and I thikn there is a lot of "noise" being tossed around to distract from the global picture here. It is a total joke, in my opinion, that the accepted "wisdom" is that this bailout is that if the governement didn't send TRILLIONS of dollars to and through the banking system, the same place where the "this" all originated.

There is a systematic failure, the system should have been allowed to fail. Period. I know I'll get a few emails telling me that it's ridiculous, or unpatriotic even. Perhaps, but that's part of what makes this country great.

Let's leave it at that, other then to say that all we've really accomplished is continuing the travesty. These same banks and brokerage firms, and you can start with GS, MS, BAC, MER, C and work your way down to a whole host of others, are doing exactly what they were doing before the bailouts. Perhaps even worse. It's a total joke. They whitewash this BS by saying that leverage has come down to 15 to 1. 15 to freakin' 1. Let me repeat that, 15 to freakin' 1.

15 to 1 and they repeat TARP at what, about 10% interest to the American public, to the tax payer. Is this a hoax? Is this a horribly unfunny joke? So, basically they have $15 for every $1 and they repay TARP. Think about it.

And, why do they repay TARP? So they can pay themselves 100s of millions, if not BILLIONS (that's B as in BILLIONS). They use taxpayer money to repay taxpayer money and then they use that money to pay themselves.

That's patriotic? All in the name of saving the economy, saving the American way. Well, if the American way is to use and abuse the system because either the people in charge are too knuckleheaded to figure it out, or are simply complicit with it, then I will choose to do something else.

Now, my brain may not work as well as it did a few months ago, but it still works well enough to figure out that unless there is a systematic change there will never be a return to prosperity, or true capitalism, in this country, period.

15 to 1 freakin' leverage. As a trader we use leverage, it's called margin, its called futures, its called options, its called a lot of things, but even we try not to use more then 4 X's leverage. Yes, options give you more but there is a defined risk. The 15 to 1 margin these companies use has created a black hole where the entire monetary system was and I believe is still one big ponzi scheme. It's simple math, does anyone really believe that if everyone asked the banks for their money back so they could have actual ownership that the banks wouldn't be short 100s of trillions (that's TRILLIONS with a T, fyi)? Of course they would.

OK, so, yes, I went tangencial on ya, but so be it. In the meantime, I will say the biggest reason the market would go up next week is WINDOW DRESSING.

I think one of the best trades that would set up beyond this next week is the Dollar reversal post Window Dressing. I'm probably going to take that trade if the dollar continues to be weak this week. I don't think it'll last, but I do think the dollar will bounce pretty hard and will provide a nice profit if played correctly. Meanwhile the market has several big events this coming week as well. RIMM reports on the 24th and I am long calls on it, and have been. We're up very very nice on it and I think it could have a bit more room to run into earnings, but my stops are now trailing. The stock trends to move hard into earnings but a day or two before sometimes pulls in if I recall correctly. The stock often gets upgraded before earnings, though that's always a crap shoot. Amtech usually weighs in on the stock both ways, though again if I recall they are usually bullish on it. You know booyahhead will weigh in more then likely as well. The stock has run a lot, but it'll see $100 if they push it up after a blowout quarter. That's a big if, but I wouldn't be surprised. PALM had really good #s and every Verizon I've been in says that the Blackberry's sell like hotcakes. I always ask, not exactly the most extensive research anyone's ever done, but hey, the stock blew out last quarter and has been a skyrocket in flight, so it's tough to short this thing with any confidence. Of course, I don't plan on holding it over earnings either, my play as usual is to play INTO earnings, not to guess what happens afterwards.

If RIMM performs well it bodes well for AAPL stock to perhaps try $200. Also watch the ag stocks here, they got upgraded late last week and if we do get a push that's a sector that has lagged the latest move. I would watch POT. MOS and IPI as they got some interesting action last week.

OK, so the bullish argument is, for me, Window Dressing as we come to the end of the quarter. I really don't want to be heavy either way here. We've had an amazing run, I had a really awesome week last week, one of my very best in a long while. I prefer to preserve my capital and lighten up til we see what shakes out here. Remember, when in doubt, stay out. Capital preservation is always paramount to success.

I think that more then likely the week finishes higher then it is now. So, early week weakness is probably good to buy into. We'll see soon enough.

In the meantime, thanks again to all for the well wishes, I do appreciate it.

If you are twitter I am going under - REALWAXIE - as my user name for now so that's where you can find me and follow along. This blog goes directly there if that's easier for ya all.

Have a good rest of the weekend and Shana Tov'a to all who celebrate the Jewish New Year.

Me? As always, I'm just a Waxie, what do I know about nothin'?

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

TRADING TIPS FROM THE DARK SIDE...

I related this to the class I did tonight on PIN ACTION, I'm repeating it here since this is where I planned on talking about it since I got SSOOOOOOOO many warm wishes and heartfelt emails wishing me well whilst I was away and not blogging. It's appreciated and feels good when one is sent good tidings.

As many of you know, I was in a pretty bad car accident in March of this year. When it first happened I really just thought I'd bounce back immediately. I'm a big tough dude and I don't like to know my own mortality. I grew up a fighter on many levels and in some ways part of my successes in life are due to the fighter in me and that I pride myself in never giving up.

Unfortunately I didn't bounce back immediately, and in fact still have some issues related to the accident. I won't bore you all with the details, but suffice to say that having a headache for 6 months straight isn't fun. I've never liked taking medication either and they never seem to agree with me, so that's been horrid. Anyone who's had a head trauma knows how putrid it is and feeling like I'm a smart guy it has been hard to adjust to not remembering just about anything half the time.
The irony is, of course, that my stock market abilities haven't been impacted, I guess I'm like Rain Man, or a stock whisperer or something like that. Let's hope it stays that way.

But, I do need to relate this piece of it as I think its very valuable for both you all and myself. One of the things that I feel that I offer to clients, and to anyone who takes any classes or reads my blog here even, is the opportunity to learn from my mistakes so that you many times don't have to make them yourself. And, many mistakes I've made I have learned to make the adequate adjustments to limit my downside when wrong, or when a trade goes awry.

One of the Top 5 rules I give people and I relate in my Psychology of Trading classes and DVDs is that when you are "not yourself" you shouldn't trade, period. Your girlfriend dumps you (happens all the time to me, though I don't get past 1st dates you guys all know!), your dog dies, you have swine flu, or are just down because of whatever reason. Or, if you get in a bad car accident and all your doctors beseech you not to trade!

Yes, that's where I come in and will relate my journey. I traded after the accident, a day or two after literally. Even though I was told by something like the 8 doctors I now have not to. Why? Well, I'm Waxie, of course, and being Waxie means I am immortal, I am legend...right? I can do ANYTHING!!! Right?

Perhaps, but probably not, at least not practically speaking,and not with a bad brain injury. And, the thing is, its not like my picks or ideas were off, they were pretty dead on, but my implication was dead WRONG and it cost me.

Now, the thing is, I've had a helluva run the last year or so (or 12 years or so if you want to get literal on me!) trading the market. I have made a horrid market look like it was/is my concubine. I made millions. I also had the audacity to think that all the doctors, and all my family and friends were wrong, and I was right and I didn't need to heed anyone else's advice...including following my own rules.

So, I had a horrible time and the thing is, and I know from talking to enough of you newbies over the last dozen years that many will relate, when you make that mistake and you aren't "yourself" (who was I? I don't remember, I have no memory, hehe, sort of!) you then have the tendency to compound the mistake you made in the first place and make it worse, even much worse.

Now, to preface this post, it's not like I cremated myself. Not at all, but I should have known better. And, see, thats the thing. I DO know better when I am feeling well. I can't know better when I am not and went through a week or two when I couldn't remember where I lived basically. This was a very valuable and very expensive lesson and one I will not do again, trust me.

I've been through a couple of near death experiences since I started this trading stuff. In 2001 I nearly died and I flatlined, literally. I was dead. Thing is, making money is great, we all want to do it, no one would read me if they didn't think I could help them make Ka-chingos, but the cliche is really true - if you don't have your health, you really have nothing at all. I ended up taking a lot of time off, went away for a few weeks to CA to relax and work out and do physical therapy. In many ways I feel a ton better, and in some I feel frustrated I am not making the progress I'd like to. I'm told I will be fine, so I take it on faith that that is the case, and I will be. I always fight and I always come back, even if it takes a bit longer then I'd like at times.

What's the point of this? Well, I wanted to get that off my chest, I want to thank those of you who took the time to send me those many email well wishes and I want to tell you that trading, like life, isn't about perfection, its about learning from your mistakes, not compounding them and remembering always whats important in your life. My girls mean everything to me, trading means something to me but not much ultimately if I don't have my health and if I don't listen to anyone else who knows better then me.

By the way, since that couple weeks rough patch I've made a pretty sick recovery that's very SWEET, and while I have some regrets that I even had to make that recovery, the only thing I can do and the only thing I have control over are what I do moving forward. Looking back only helps if we use the look back to learn and use that knowledge in the present moment(s). If not, we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over, and over, and over again. That is the definition of insanity, making the same mistakes and expecting different results. If you do the same things, you will reap the same things.

I will be posting here, though I'm taking my time so if I don't post for a day or two, or a few, don't fret, I always am around and you can always shoot me an email, I answer them all as long as they are not nasty. Life's too short, this I am well aware of and I plan on sticking around for quite a while no matter what my brain feels like. And, no matter what my trading day looks like. It is only money after all. Trust me when I say this, if I could pay everything I have to feel really better then I have the last few months, I'd sign on the dotted line in a heartbeat.

Everything is relative, and I'm grateful it wasn't worse and that my daughter is perfectly fine.

I ain't immortal, I'm just a Waxie and just a dude who can trade pretty darn good, except when I'm not myself. I needed some lovin' more then I needed a few extra dollars.

Peace to all and to all a good night, hope this wasn't too sappy, I think this is all part of the journey and if it prevents one of you from trading when you shouldn't be for whatever reason, then that's all that matters.

Night all and remember one thing and one thing only - RULE, cause that's the only way to live -----

Michael "Waxie" Parness
on Twitter sign up to follow me! my nickname is - REALWAXIE
Email me at - waxie@trendtrade.com

THE GAUNTLET HAS BEEN THROWN!

Will the market ever rest? Will the dollar ever stop falling? Will Gold be $5000 an ounce?

It's kinda amazing to me that there is so much hoopla made over the market rally, yet no one seems to really care that the dollar is falling faster then the bionic man can run.

There is an inherent problem with this scenario and frankly it's a very ugly problem that will probably haunt us for a long time to come.

I suspect that the dollar will get a pretty sharp reversal, and I intend to buy it come Oct as this type of move post window dressing should reverse pretty hard in a squeeze. It may not last that long, but it should happen.

Either way, this type of move does not bode well for any market in the long run. At the beginning of the year I said the only thing that would save the US equity markets was a very weak dollar and that's exactly what's unfolded. The market was in freefall and the Fed stepped in and started the printing presses. And, yeah, the markets stopped falling, but at what price? And, while I am happy to take money from the markets (been a KILLER sweet week!) due to a huge bubble, I find it disturbing that we are celebrating the death of the dollar. I also worry that the move is premature, meaning that its almost like a sprinter horse stretching out to a mile and a half race. He or she can dominate and open up 12 lengths early but inevitably has to fade VERY fast late. How high this market can go is unknown, I said it could see 1150 on the S & P, but honestly it's anyone's guess and in this market it doesn't pay to fight the tape, just go with it until it reverses and then go the other way. Anyone trying to pick tops here has been run over. At some point that will be the right play, but for now I prefer to go WITH the market, not against it.

Watch for PIN ACTION here and Friday as I discussed in my class Wednesday night. I hope you guys and gals enjoyed it, I enjoyed teaching it.

I'll post another one right after this if I can stay up, in the meantime, as I said yesterday and been saying, this market has a nice floor under it called Window Dressing. Its unlikely we get a huge pullin until (if we do pullin ever again!) after the end of September. So, stay the course, use proper money management, definately fade the GAPS (its working brilliantly!) and stay tuned for more classes upcoming!


Oh, I'm now on Twitter as - REALWAXIE, sign on and follow me!

RULE!

Waxie

PROTECTIONISM and you...

It's amazing, I finally have something to say. Life is grand.

Eh, the headline is meaningless, I doubt we're dumb enough to start a game of chicken with China over tariffs. This notion rears its ugly head every year or so and if we were dumb enough to do that it would potentially topple any shot we do have of bailing ourselves out. You can't ever return to growth by growing inward and shutting off everything else, or in this case the country we owe the most money to by trillions. That would be a very tragic mistake. It's kinda like a NYC street fight - "I'm gonna kick your butt...no, I'm gonna kick yours!" and that goes back and forth 50 times until they get tired of saying it and then it just ends and no one gets their butts kicked.

I am watching Tim Guithner on CNBC right now at some sort of townhall meeting. I guess they decided to invite only people who were preppy and dainty since that's all I see. It'd be cool if they held one of these in a place where people were chewing tobacco and spitting at the dude. That'd be cool and I'd watch that, this is boring and they keep saying the same things over and over again. It's kinda like ball players, when they get asked what its like to hit a key home run, they always say the same thing. Like in Bull Durham, one of the funniest films ever, when Tim Robbins character is taught how to answer questions by the press.

The stock market should be ok through months end with Window Dressing acting as a cushion and support under the market. ANY gap down these days clearly has to be bought until proven otherwise. Today the market proved that out.

I also think you need to really watch the biotech sector, our DNDN is rocking, and I bought CHTP on its heels and held it.

Right now the futures are down about 3 pts on the ES (S & P futures), I'm long and I'm hoping we gap down without news so I can add and just use the 10 am rule for stops. I just don't think you can short here for more then a short trade, a very short one. End of this month is a HUGE deal and fund managers who aren't participating should be piling up the momo stocks to try to show they are smart.

We'll see, but I would continue to trade this market the way we have up til now, look for dips to get in, don't get shaken out, set stops, make sure you are using proper money management and hopefully get some Ka-chingos!

Thanks all for the well wishes from all, I missed ya all as well. It's been tough getting smashed in the head and being thrown off balance. The irony is, the only thing I'm doing rather normally is trading, everything else is a bit harder then usual. I'm rain man trader - sorta like booyah head I guess you could say - buy, buy, buy, sell,sell,sell,,,,

RULE RULE RULE

Waxie

FREE CLASS TONIGHT at 6:30 pm EST

http://www.onlinetradercentral.com/HR/HR.asp?S=Relay6&R=TTMarketCast
Password = kachingos

I'll try to post a blog tonight, thank you all for the insane amount of requests and well wishes!

RULE!

Waxie

EARNINGS, BABY, EARNINGS...

As we continue to plow through a very robust earnings season, we can see the power of the almighty TREND.

Stocks continue to get ramped and reramped up into earnings. CAT got upgraded today with earnings due out tomorrow (shocking coincidence, I am sure!).

We need to watch closely as we run through the season, if you pick the right spots you can pick the right stocks. It took me a small while to catch up but now we're looking at some rushes into earnings as more and more stocks "beat" their deflated #s, giving rise to hope that things are getting better.

Perhaps they are, perhaps they are. Let's hope so. I have to say I feel almost naked not being short anything at all, its like someone took all my clothes off and since clearly no one would do that, I must be dreamin'!

Want to thank Lisa Chase for having me on her Political Chick show, was way cool and glad some of you called in. I love doing live radio, its very cool and a lot of fun.
Maybe I'll do my own show soon, ya never know.

I don't have much commentary here other then watch MS early in the day for a potential move into the close into earnings. The stock, however, is trading VERY weak and is trading VERY suspect in terms of how it just can't bust out despite GS earnings and JPM, etc. LM blew out and was up nearly $2 after hours and still MS didn't budge. So...we'll see. $30 is a very key level for MS. It's just not showing any strength here and instinctually I tend to stay away from stocks that trade like this into earnings. I own some, but any spike and I am way gone. See, stocks will often give you "tips" and you need to heed them. Fighting the way a stock trades can be hazardous to your health.

I will say that it's quite disheartening to me that it appears we are setting up for the same situation as we just got out of. JPM and GS are now fast becoming the behemouths and certainly "too big to fail". I thought the idea was to change things so that that doesn't happen again. Guess not. Apparently its great that two firms are sucking up the profits and the glory and that one of them was at least partially responsible for what happened. It's quite amazing that we continue to reward the bad behavior of the banks and that they were bailed out and now many are giving crazy bonuses. Did someone say the American people are suckers? If not, they should cause babies that's what we all are here with this. Astounding.

I wanted to also just comment on trading in general. I get asked a lot "Michael, is it really "THAT" easy to trade? My answer? Yeah, it is, its very easy to learn to trade! What its not that easy to do is make money consistently and to limit your losses. Losing is a BIG part of trading, in fact I said it tonight on air radio that if a good trader makes a million dollars it may often mean that he lost $2 MILLION! HOw can that be you ask? Cause simple math, if you make $3 MIL and lose $2 MIL then you NET $1 MIL.

I never stopped to figure that piece out for myeslf but I am quite sure that I've lost many many millions, but am still millions ahead of the game and in the black. This is a marathon folks, let's not forget that. this market ain't easy. Sometimes the market is like raining money, this isn't one of those times, though if you pick your spots you can do quite well. Quite quite well, and that's ultimately what we aim to do, we aim to pick our spots and try to capitalize on the moves as they happen, rather then after they happen. Trading isn't horseshoes, its not an "almost" business, its very real and its very exact, or at least as exact as losing $2 MIL and making $3 MIL can be!

let's keep the steady market going here, if you stick to the plan you have opportunities and thats all the market ever really promises. There are no sure things in life, or trading. Peace.

See ya on the other side,

RULE!

Waxie

Wowsa, so much for Head and Shoulders...

Ya know, its a very good thing that I'm not a technical trader. The only thing I know about head and shoulders is that it's a shampoo! Da Dum Dum. Oy vey.

Ok, so that was bad, but I have to tell ya, this is why TRENDS RULE THE MARKET, and WE RULE TRENDS!

We are getting a CLASSIC earnings run, and we are taking advantage of it nicely here! BAC, GE, PRU, JPM, GOOG, MS, all stocks and options we've owned here into this and out of it and the ka-chingos are rather frothy! VEry nice indeed!

It's always amazing to me. I had a couple of bad weeks, admittedly, but I never doubt my abilities. Someone wrote me today saying "I thought maybe you had lost your touch". Maybe that'll happen one day, but the cool thing is, it hasn't yet and even if so, hey, I still have taste and smell to rely on! You didn't know Henny Youngman was still alive, I know.

OK, so enough with the one liners. Thing is, this market, if you are patient and pick your spots is a GREAT trading market. We were just treading water and its easy to overtrade when that happens and its a very tough market to trade then. But, out of the calm usually comes the storm and that's what we've gotten. HUGE moves two out of three days this week and I've said it again and again that I just didn't see how the market was going to die here through earnings without some really bad news. The market is still heavily shorted and any good news is going to be met with extreme short covering.

Also remember, this is options expiration week and moves tend to be exaggerated and pin action is in play. Look at stuff here and tomorrow for clues as to which way we will lean, and which way stocks will go individually. We should get some nice setups for short term trades.

TOmorrow GOOG is on tap after the close. Before the open is JPM which will set the tone for financials. Remember, they are overbought here, so a gap up is not something I would chase, stick with what ya got and ride 'em Trend Traders!

CIT getting a bailout, when does it end? Soon we may have more companies bailed out then companies that are in business!

Watch CME here, if it squeezes it may try for $300s in a jiff. Stock bounced today but on a pullback would be an even better entry on no news. We'll see soon enough!

RULE!

Waxie

Earnings rockers...

GS blow out
INTC blow out
If ya had to guess, you'd have to think there's gonna be some nice blowouts from the likes of GOOG, AAPL, etc.

Market way up afterhours on INTC earnings. GS still using $150 as STRONG resistence, even with the HUGE blowout it couldn't yet bust out of that price. The gap up tomorrow should be interesting and should set up some nice short term trades for those patient enough to pick spots.

As I've been saying for a while, this is a tough market to short for more then very short term trades here. We will crash and burn but its unlikely to happen through earnings period here, which means picking your spots should pay off mightily. I'm looking at some really nice potential Options plays for next week or two. Watch energy, Oil may get a nice bounce over the next week or two off the $60 level if it can hold here there. I suspect it will and am looking at upcoming earnings in the energy sector to play.

Not much else to talk about, the hearings on Capital Hill remain problematic longer term but give hope short term and right now this market is trading on HOPE.

As you know, to me, HOPE is a four letter word for traders, BUT that doesn't mean we can't catch some nice moves.

Watch KLAC off the open on a dip, they have an analyst meeting it appears today and should be "in play" until that comes off, and maybe after as well and might be worth a flyer early in the day off INTC and into their conference.


RULE!

Waxie

*Please order my new book on Amazon - Rule Your Freakin' Retirement! It's a sure winner and you should own it!

There ya go...

The market awakens!

Lo and behold its during earnings season, who knew? GS racking up big gains, as were rest of financials.

We owned MS, so very nice, also BAC and now GE. Key here is what GS does first in terms of the estimates,and secondary as far as the stock action. If GS blows out, which seems likely, and the stock sells off that is a very bad sign. If they blow out and the stock goes up $10+ or even $20+ then thats a sign things are and should get better, at least this week!

Earnings plays are working, folks, keep your eyes and mouth open for clues of what to do and where to go.

In the meantime, I think watching AAPL and RIMM is a good idea for further up moves. AAPL I think reports next week.

It's late, I will try to post tomorrow. I think all eyes are on GS, hail, ice and sleet are wrong. The question is, does it thaw or just plough ahead!

Waxie