Thank you, Frankfurt! And, the naysayers!

Had a great time in Germany at the World of Trading. My sincere thanks to all the wonderful people who showed tremendous graciousness throughout my short stay. I felt at home and I am grateful. And, big thank you to Oliver who showed me around town and (over)fed me some very good food! I ordered like a New Yorker and they looked at me like I was nuts, hehe. I didn't realize that food portions could be so HUGE! My eyes were definately bigger than my stomach!

I'll tell ya, it never ceases to amaze me at how wrong I can be about some things in life. I thought I was just gonna fly in and fly out, but the people here were so warm, contrary to some things I've "heard" over the years. And, its remarkable that perceptions are so off sometimes. I think that expectations are the birthplace of all downers. I wasn't expecting much, and so I had an amazing time. Also, we truly are all in this "thing" we call life together. People everywhere are suffering from this economic malaise. Unemployment, discontentment, fear are everywhere. People who were previously flourishing are struggling and worrying about how they are going to survive without their jobs, or best case often a severe pay cut. Or, if they have job "security" they wonder and worry it won't last. It's unfortunate, but I do think that while it can bring out the worst in some people, it can also bring out the best in some as well.

I met some newbies at the Expo and they were excited to embark in what I think truly is the best job you can have - trading! You all know why, I think, by now. You make your own job security if you can master it, with or without our help. I'm grateful I got to meet and work with so many very new and very excited soon-to-be successful traders! Welcome here, I know a few of you have already written me and are reading this! Guten Morgen!

I want to address something, this is something that over the years I've dealt with, particularly when the market is getting crushed as it obviously has been. When the market is going down most people get hammered, whether they are investors or traders both. This market isn't easy, and while I boast of victories and I do believe that this is a GREAT market to trade, I hope I get across also that it's not like I make money on every trade, or even every day. That's absurd, and I want to be clear about that. We have a ton of traders ROCKING, but we of course have some who haven't quite figured it out yet, or are still investing and thus there is little I can do to help them. Having said that, when the market is going down I usually get "hate" mail. I find it childish and honestly feel sorry for the sender most of the time (though I've had threats against my well being and my families, which I take very seriously). Usually people are angry at someone outside themselves when they are struggling, so it's sad. Here is one I got today, it's a VERY sedate one compared to a couple of recent ones. I'm posting it because I'm kinda annoyed getting these absurd emails saying that I don't do this or that. My job here, in my view, is to help traders make money and build confidence, and, yes, at times, boast of my prowess and my clients prowess as traders. If I didn't honestly believe and frankly KNOW that we can help people make money, I wouldn't be able to show up for work every day. We've been doing this for a LONG time, over 10 years now. No matter how much I may brag, or tell you all I rule or whatever, if the proof wasn't in the pudding we wouldn't have any clients, let alone be THRIVING in what everyone else proclaims a horrible market. The feedback we're getting is that MOST of our clients are ROCKING. I know I've been rocking. I have proof of that, and I don't need to lie to sell our services, I always suggest YOU try us for a month and if you don't make money, ok, you didn't cost yourself much and you bettered yourself no matter what because I believe anyone we do in life is a step toward LIFE, or death. Making an active choice to try something new is clearly a choice toward life, even if it doesn't work out the way we'd like it to. Trading isn't for everyone, but I believe its a great way to earn a magnificent living, make your own hours, be your own bos and RULE your own life! The naysays, keep the nasty emails coming, there's an old saying, I like it a lot - resentment is like pissing down your own leg, YOU are the only one who feels it!

My best to everyone, even those that doubt the TRUTH. I LOVE THIS MARKET, try the chat room or Options Trader and you'll love it, too!

Oh, one more thing, we have a TON of German clients, I'm so grateful to have met you all! Special shout out to Patricia, thanks for your hospitality as well. And, again, to Oliver, who is a good man and a special friend from here on in, you are always welcome in my home when you and your family make your way to New York! Keep on rocking with your warrants on GS and God Bless!

And, for you Rich, here ya go, you get your letter, which I appreciate as tame by most standards. Hopefully this post addresses your concerns. For every $5 MIL a good trader makes, he probably has $4 MIL or more in losses and shows a $1 MIL or less profit. THAT, my friends, is trading! You don't win them all, it's not a spring, its a marathon, but if you master it, you can make one helluva livin'! RULE ALWAYS! Oh, and for the TON of testimonials, keep them coming, I obviously like hearing those and get a LOT more of those then these ! RULE! WAXIE

Waxie,

Have you ever owned your losses/mistakes? This has to occur in a market as volatile
as this one, however, to admit such would be too much of a narrcissistic blow for you.


Happy Trading

Rich

THE WAXIE PLAN, and why it should work...

First off, let me say one thing - NICE FOLLOW THROUGH on yesterday's rally! Man, this market is a disease, buy at your own ridiculous risk, you will get burned big time!

OK, so let me preface this post by saying the following - I am NOT an expert in economic theory, nor am I sure that what I am about to propose will work. I'm posting some thoughts and am open to feedback (email me at - waxie@trendfund.com) from you all. If something I am saying is illogical or out and out wrong, don't be shy, let me know, I'm shooting from the hip here and am ok with input, right or wrong. OK, let's begin.

Let's call this my 3-point plan and see what happens. I'll also say that this is part of what I think (pure speculation) Obama is going to do, at least in part, and why I think that the stock market is TOAST and anyone who doesn't get it, will get a chance to see what DOW 2500 feels like!

1)The government nationalizes the insolvent, or virtually insolvent banks, of which I believe there are many. If you look at the books on banks like C, MER/BAC and even WFC/WB and CYN and such I think you should find that a lot of what's keeping them afloat at this point are depositors money. Now, I can't state that as a fact, but that's what it appears to me as a dude who knows a tad about this stuff and who's been pretty dead on so far.

This is why I think that anyone buying financials is NUTS at this point. I think you're looking at a very bad outcome to this who system/sector and I think its inevitable. Paulson can say anything he likes about how strong the banks are, notice how we rallied on him saying that and then completely tanked? Yeah, well, figure it out! Too much smart money is betting against these things to not take it serious that they are in a very dire situation. Since we are headed toward socialism anyway, the cleanest thing to do, rather than throw good money after bad, is for the government to take over the banking system either on a case by case basis, or in it's entirety. Personally, I think we should let it all fall apart and start over, but since that doesn't seem to be anyone else's opinion, this is next best.

This would effective wipe out the entire financial sector's stock market worth. This would have to encompass the insurers and some other troubled companies.

2)Obama has stated that the government should have some more controls over retirement accounts. If that comes to pass I think that #1 may very well be part of the agenda. I think that Obama is willing to sacrifice Wall Street for main street, he's made that very clear. By taking these measures you basically wipe out shareholder value left and right. Obviously companies have value, so they will either take themselves private and be ok with the new valuation models that I believe will happen one way or another. Investors and fund managers have been spoiled, they think its reasonable for companies to sell at 30 X's forward earnings, or even 15 X's forward earnings, or 10 X's current earnings. That's not realistic in a real world business model. If anyone wants to buy out Trendfund.com at a 10 X's current earnings let me know, I'll sell it to you tomorrow. And, I think we have tremendous growth opps here, so in terms of the stock market, you'd be getting the steal of the century! I won't hold my breath, but the offer stands!

3)Once the government has taken over the banks, or in conjunction with, instead of injecting the banks with all this stupid money that is just being thrown away, start offering 3% or lower mortages to eligible buyers, and rework current mortgages to those that can afford to stay at their new realistically worth homes. The banks can't do it now because its not profitable, if the banks are nationalized then it becomes possible because the government doesn't need to make the "vig" on the Fed Funds rate. By doing this you would stimulate the housing market, and allow those homeowners who can and want to stay, to stay. Interest rates are 1.0% yet because of the credit crisis banks are still asking for 6 to 8% for mortgages. That's way too steep a profit, but they need to since they are drowning in debt, and are afraid to loan anymore. People buy when the market is or should go UP, or they buy because its as cheap or cheaper to buy then to rent. I would buy a place if I could lock in a 3% or less mortgage, then it would pay for me to do so, plus I get the benefit of owning something. Otherwise what's my incentive? There isn't any, hence the problem, or one of them, with the housing market's reinvigoration.

So, in effect, what I am calling for is for the stock market to be sacrificed rather than the consumer/home owner. I am asking for the stock market to reach its organic levels. This charade that the banking system is fine will only lead to more and more investor and company crushings. Let's stop the BS and do what needs to be done to the SYSTEM. Having hearings on Hedge FUnds, which are the only thing I would ever consider investing in if I was going to invest, is ludicrous. They are going after these guys because they made too much money? That's absurd. This is AMERICA, a capitalistic/free market system. You can't limit people's ability to earn what they can...unless its done so illegally or immorally. Yes, I know, I am sure I will get at least a couple emails saying "it's immoral earnings $2 BIL a year!" To that I say - PHOOEY! That's rubbish. If the hedge fund manager made $2 BIL in a year that means that the hedge fund investors did pretty freain darn good! So, that's why I think that we should just admit we are now a socialist country and go for the whole nine yards, rather than pretending it's all in the name of capitalism. Be real, dudes and dudesses, be real!

Something has to be sacrificed and my vote is the stock market, I think it'll survive without C, trust me. I'm not advocating the government take everything over, but they can take over some things that are just so damaged they need immediate attention. We're so intent on saving GM< which is a DEAD business, its time for us to do something rewarding in LIFE!

See ya on the other side,

Michael *Quick" WAXIE

BOOYAH!

Nice reversal today, baby!!!!

WHEEEE! Gotta love this market, folks. We got rich early, and late. SWEET! I went home almost entirely FLAT for the first time in a long time. Hoping we get another pop tomorrow and see what shakes next week for reentry to the short side. That's why they call it TRADING! No volume on the break below the lows, and a lunchtime reversal. VERY VERY NICE! Had a nice day before i now leave to airport to Germany. I don't speak any German, but I think Guten Tag means something, like good night? :) Good luck tomorrow! Remember, TRADE 'EM, don't marry 'em! 900 point ranges, who the hell doesn't want to trade this EASY market? IT's RAINING MONEYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!! :) RULE and enjoy the weekend, I'll try to post from Frankfurt. RULE! Waxie
One more thing, did I say this market is RAINING MONEY? Yeah, it is, folks, it sure is!

MADNESS MONEY...

OK, so I really have a hard time watching this Booyahhead, but I really have a harder time listening to utter nonsense. The notion that we should prop up home prices and that will solve everything is up there with anything else nonsensical the guy has said. First off, you can't keep a market up that is overpriced for very long. It's never happened, and never will. You can artificially prop it up, as the Fed has tried to do time and again, but it won't work for very long, as we've seen time and again. Part of the reason the depression lasted as long as it did was the government tried to assert it's will on the markets. This just delays the inevitable, which is what will happen with GM if and when they prop them up. Secondly, part of the problem is the obsession with a rising stock market. If there was an honest discourse people would understand that having their entire 401K's in the market, which many do, is LUDICROUS. In my new book, Rule Your Freakin' Retirement, I recommend you have AT MOST 15% in the markets, and thats if you are younger than 30s. Right now I wouldn't have 1% in the market on the long side, as I've been clear about. People have been sold on this notion that if you can wait it out you should be in the market. This notion is fatally flawed, and when we are south of 5000 on the DOW and south of 800 on Nasdaq, that will become very clear. The housing market should be allowed to bottom on its own, same as the stock market. GM should be allowed to fail, so should F and so should Chrysler. That's why they have bankruptcy laws. Government intervention only works if its based on something that is tangible, something that can last. The markets, all of them, are still vastly overvalued. Until there are realistic expectations. Over the years I've seen this a few times and each time the market VASTLY underestimates the pain that is inflicted in a bear market, and this is the mother of bear markets, folks. But, there I go again, repeating-repeating myself. Do not try to bottom pick this market, look at all these stocks that "experts" say are so cheap. FCX, X, CLF, POT, DE, C, MSFT, etc, etc. All such good deals. I've heard this all before, its a bad recurring nightmare and the only way to wake up is to realize that reality is lower and you'll know when we can buy, but it ain't now and it ain't anytime soon. We will get a tradeable bounce soon, perhaps next week. We'll play that, but the notion that we will get a multimonth rally anytime soon is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but highly highly unlikely. I'm just not sure where we can go to the upside. Normally that would be a contrarian indicator, but like I've said time and again, this Bear market is special in a bad way, and it doesn't act like most Bears. As bearish as I am, even I didn't think we'd get taken down this far this fast. That's meaningful because it means there are other factors here that we have to account for. I've never seen so many put buyers be right. The option volumes are giving such huge tells, we have to heed them. Watch the rails now, I think them and the credit cards are next to fall. The wisdom has been that they are immune, I don't think so. We'll see. I'm going to bed now, but I had to discuss this knuckle booyahhead. Call your local rep, tell them to stop the bailouts before we dig ourselves an even deeper hole. Before its too late. Waxie

IF YOU DOUBTED DOW sub-5000 before...

PLEASE heed this. I've been beating the crap out of you guys for a long time saying to sell SELL SELL, while most everyone else has been saying we'll see a bottom. Well, you know what? They are WRONG! The DOW will see sub-5000 and frankly I may be adjusting my target to 2500 shortly. I am doing the research, but I think that we should see 2500 or less when this is done.

Here is the inherent problem with the notion that this is the same as other bear markets. Bear markets are usually based on a few factors, one of which is valuation. That, in my opinion, is the least of the issues. Others include valuation based things like "bubbles". More importantly, though, is the economy, which includes unemployment, manufacturing, sales, etc. Even more importantly is consumer confidence and investor confidence. ALL these factors point to MUCH lower prices. BUT, none of them is the most important in this instance. In this instance you have what happened in 1929, a confluence of events and factors that has created what I've dubbed the PERFECT STORM of investor disaster, or the real Y2K, but of the stock market. Today we heard from Hank Paulson, whom you guys all know I have HUGE issues with. Those issues I've stated in depth here for a long while, and relentlessly. I feel like Franky the Repeater from Goodfellas. I keep repeating, repeating, repeating myself, yet I would be remiss if I didn't do so, given what I feel is the gravity of the situation. Today Paulson said what I've said again and again - the "bailout" was total BS and will go down as the biggest con job this country has ever known. They force fed everyone, including congress and the senate and investors and "main street" the notion that the government was going to buy all these toxic assets, create a market for them and the government would then be able to make money on these "assets". Many of you will recall that your buddy (not mine) the one and only BOOYAH HEAD proclaimed that it was so great, that the US Government was now the largest Hedge Fund ever, and that we would make money on this $700 BIL. That the taxpayers would BENEFIT from this money and would not be on the hook. This NONSENSE has been repeated AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN all over the financial media, as though it was true. Fund manager after fund manager has trekked onto CNBC and other places and told YOU that this is a good time to buy. Everyone from Suze Ormon, to Booyahhead, to all the other knuckleheads out there STILL keep saying if you have a 10 year horizon, now is a good time to buy buy buy! Dennis, the biggest knucklehead of them all has said repeatedly that there is "no way the market isn't going to be higher in 10 years". I am never one to plead victim, and I really loathe people who invest and then lose and blame someone else. Having said that, when someone or company basically guarantees that you will make money if you do something, that is cause for concern. The same as there is no way I could guarantee anyone here that I am right. I could be wrong, it's happened before, just ask any woman I've dated, they will tell you how wrong I can be about a whole host of things! All I can do is relate my opinion, and tell you what I am doing or thinking. I'm not licensed or registered, and I never would want to be. I'm just a dude who has an opinion, you read it, you do what you wish of your own volition. Win, lose or drawer its on you. If I guaranteed things then I'd be a lunatic, and frankly I'd advise none of you to take me seriously. Do I feel strongly about what I say? Absolutely. I am, however, not always right. It is irresponsible for these people to continuously pound the table that you should keep buying when there is no empirical evidence to support the thesis that we have "bottomed" or are anywhere near it. The notion that you should buy now and hold for 10 years and that historically that has paid off is another LIE that is perpetrated by the media, and by fund managers alike. There is an inherent conflict of interest in most of these people's and companies preach. Today we made a MINT in the chat room, and Option Trader, which you ALL should sign up for, is beyond rocking. BEYOND. We are calling double, after triple, after quadruple and it's so good that we are getting a ton of testimonials nearly every day. No guarantees that will continue, but the service has been INSANELY profitable for many. OK, lest I digress. Today's speech by Paulson is so bad that anyone buying ANY bank is, in my opinion, INSANE. My interpretation of what Paulson said today is that the nonsense that these toxic assets have no value, therefore banks like; C, BAC, WFC, COF, STI, NTRS and MANY MANY others, in my view, are in very serious trouble. That's why I called MS short, PFG short, BLK short, COF short after he was done. ALL winners in a big way. That's why I continue to LOVE GS short and feel that my target of $25 is probably overvaluing them. You have to listen to reality. BBY today said things are DONE for retail. After the close INTC said things are horrible. Now, look, I'm short and will remain exposed to the short side until we hit my targets. I put my money where my mouth is. I have made a FORTUNE in this market. Clients are RACKING UP in a HUGE way. YOU need to get off the sidelines and get in the game. You need to stop watching your finances drop off a cliff and do something about it. I can't promise anything. I can't promise you will make money and I certainly can't promise you that you won't LOSE money. Trading on any level is not for everyone. BUT, I think that this market continues to present GREAT profit/Ka-chingo opportunities for us. These opportunities won't always be here. Certainly if and when we do get to DOW 5000 or 2500 there will be less volatility and thus less opportunities. BUT, at some point we will be able to scoop things up and trade them LONG for swings. That time is NOT right now. I don't remember the last swing long I took. I think it was a loser, though. I'm pretty sure of it. ANYONE buying here for more than a trade is NUTS in my opinion. Just think about this - ALL (or almost all) of the so-called "experts" who keep saying now is a good time to buy have been saying that for roughly 2000 to 5000 points now. Dollar cost averaging is for suckers, in my new book coming out in March, Rule Your Freakin' Retirement (St.Martin's Press) I show a study that was done that disproves that dollar cost averaging actually works in the long haul. And, dollar cost averaging, as well as investing, always assumes that the market will go higher in the long haul. That is a very bad assumption. Do you realize how many fund managers, and BOOYAHHEAD who called the financials and the market bottom in July, have destroyed their clients by buying the financials? Even the Fast Money (Fast way to LOSE Money) people, some of whom are decent traders, have recommended owning GS, or some of the other banks. Or, selling puts against them. People have a very hard time believing that something is over. People stalk people, and they stalk the stock market, thinking that it's going to go up eventually, let me look for entries to buy these stocks. Look at C, I said many times it would see single digits. I said that when it was $40s. What Paulson said today should make C insolvent. From what I've read and the research I've done (and again, I'm not an expert researcher mind you), C has roughly $300 BIL in bad/toxic assets. The NY Times reported that MER has some $260 BIL in defaulting/toxic assets. The bill of goods the American people were sold is shameful. Do Paulson and Bernanke claim they didn't know these assets were worthless when they said that taxpayers should be on the hook for $700 BIL that I said from day 1 was throwing our money away? Who benefited from the $10 BIL each given to JPM, C, WFC and others? There should be an immediate investigation into what happened and who got that money! That's OUR money, folks! What happens when you give a company with $300 BIL in bad debt $10 BIL to help them? You throw $10 BIL into a garbage can, that's what happens! I wish I had the time, or that I had run the commercial I was going to run on CNBC when it happened giving my opinion and offering that I would personally oversee the $700 BILLION. Someone else needs to be in charge here. And, its going to get worse. The GM bailout again will be sold as an INVESTMENT, and sold that GM is too big to fail. This is another TOTAL LIE! GM has to be allowed to go into bankruptcy and to reorganize, otherwise its a 100% guarantee that they will keep coming back for more and more money. It's theft, folks, plain and simple. $700 BIL that WE will be on the hook for. I am sick to my stomach. Fed up. I feel like going to my window, opening it and yelling out - I'M MAD AS HELL AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE! If the American public paid attention everyone would do the same at the same time. In fact, I'm going to send an alert to the 100,000+ members we have and give everyone a time that anyone who feels the same can do just that. The thing is, right now most people don't realize how bad this is, and how big a lie this was/is. When the proverbial "S&*t" hits the fan, if I am right, it's going to be quite the ugly scene. As far as tomorrow goes, well, I lost my passport so I'm still in NYC! Hehe! So, I should be around, and Friday more redemptions come in from Hedge funds and such. So, seems hard to imagine we get any lasting rally here for now. The path of least resistence is DOWN, and should remain so for the time being. A retest of the supposed bottom may happen tomorrow. Does it hold? Well, it might, for now, but I think 7500 is coming sooner rather than later and if we were to break there then I will see you on the other side...of 5000! Keep trading, keep listening, the answers are always there for us if we are open to hearing them. Me? I'm just a dude who cares and who believes that after the dust settles there will be a better day, or two, or three. Until then I'll just keep plugging and keep the faith! Keep the faith despite the fact that some of our leaders are misleading knowingly. It's a shame, we should have let things fail and started over. The path we are going down will only keep us in a DEPRESSION for far longer than we should be in. The banking system has cancer, it's got cancer and its spreading, and unless we cut out the cancer the patient, our economy, is going to DIE. And, you know what? Everyone I said here now, as usual - I hope I'm wrong. I hope we never see 5000, I hope we never see 7500. I hope we go to 25,000 on the DOW, and I hope that everything they are doing helps, or better yet solves the problems. That would be wonderful, I would be SO happy to hear everyone tell me I suck, that ha-ha, I was wrong! That we all should have bought what many of these nutjobs say is the "buying opportunity of a lifetime". I hope so, but as I've said before - HOPE is a four letter word when it comes to your money, and your life. I should spell it like this, same as any other curse "H&*E" = HOPE. Be smart, protect your assets, don't be a deer in a headlight like most investors. Plan your life, and live it! As always - rule! Michael "Waxie" Parness Oh, and PS, sign up for OPTIONS TRADER for Gawds sake! :)

Well, that was easy...

Today had to be like the easiest GAP short of all-time! Seriously, how we were going to go up more than the 200ish points they gapped us? Did anyone think we were going to go up 500 pts today? This market is INSANELY easy. INSANELY. I hate saying that because I'm supersticious, but my Gawd, this is NUTS! S & P gapped up over 27 pts from Fridays 4 pm close! On what? China stimulus package? ROFLMAO! Our own hasn't worked to get the market to go up, but China's will? If you think logically in this market, its RAINING MONEY. I haven't done this well this easily for a long long time! Life is very very good and I am living LARGE, baby! And, todays calls - AGAIN - were insane. We NAILED IT! yes, I am bragging, because I think we are just completely devouring this market. And, did ya notice GS? My #1 short since it was about $150? Hmm, amazing, the stock should be $15 and they keep asking "why is GS going down? They are so smart!" Yeah, they are so smart that they blew their company up, just like all the other brokerage houses did. Yeah, they are brilliant. Please, give me a break with this nonsense. GS is going down because they have NO WORTH! That's reality. You want to keep telling me that Warren Buffet bought warrants at $115? First off, its NOT TRUE! Secondly, there is no secondly! The media keep portraying that deal is a way that is completely misleading. Buffet didn't "purchase" anything, he gave GS a loan, a lifeline at 10% interest that gives him preferred shares, plus the interest. That's what he did. He HAS warrants which are exercisable at $115 if he wants, but I doubt Mr.Buffet really thinks GS is worth $115 a share, he just did that as a bump is my GUESS. I try not to make statements without facts, crazy as that might seem watching day in and day out the insanity of the market!
OK, so I need to comment on Booyahhead tonight. Let me tell you something, his pitch tonight that the market needs the government to bail out all the automakers for us to get a "sustainable rally" is LUDICOUS, and once again will lead investors to their financial deaths. This market is GOING DOWN NO MATTER WHAT! Of course the government will bail out GM, and the others! DUH! They bail EVERYONE out! FNM lost $29 BIL this last quarter! $29 BIL! AIG has "only" destroyed what, like $130 BIL of taxpayer money? Oh, yeah, I forgot, we'll all make it back because AIG is a good investment! Sorry, I forgot, please forgive me! If and when the market rallies on a bailout of the automakers, it will be once again a total lamb to slaughter situation. ANY rally here is. People are nuts for thinking that you can buy this market and hold for 10 years and you'll make money. NUTS. INSANE. I spoke to an old friend today and she told me that she was buying Berkshire at $3000 if it gets there. I asked her why and she said that she was holding for 10 years and that thats a "good deal". OK, she knows my opinion, and I could be wrong, but I don't see ANY reason to try to bottom pick here. Look at how much money is being just thrown away by the government on our behalf, and its not doing a thing. This is a QUADTRILLION $ problem! The government doesn't have enough money to do what needs to be done. That's why, in my opinion, something needs to be done OUTSIDE THE BOX! Throwing money at GM? I mean, what will that do? Keep a dead company in business? How does that help? It just means that government gets to tax us more and more and destroy the financial fiber of the country for years to come. GM is DEAD. It's lost money for a very long time, it can't possibly make money the way it's structured. So, a bailout does what? How does that help? It is INSANITY, pure and unadultered. Fold the freakin' company. Set the workers up with other work that is needed. Offer them a buyout, or a job doing improvements in other areas. I'm sorry, I know it sounds heartless, but there are millions of other people and hard workers who are suffering as well, why does anyone think that its appropriate to bail out one industry and not others? It's INSANE. And, ultimately it will lead to them folding it anyway. If I'm right, which I hope I'm NOT, then GM can't possibly be profitable EVER. That's right - EVER. So, when the Fed tells us that GM is going to make taxpayers money, same as AIG, and same as the Tarp program and the 700 BIL bailout, its total BS and an out and out LIE. And, I for one am sick. And, its not because they are bailing things out. I don't want anyone to suffer, but its because there is NO PLAN, its like water to them, and they keep rallying the market so stupid funds keep killing investors. It's a vicious cycle and the cycle will continue until there is finally capitulation all around. Until the taxpayers tell their representatives that ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, stop the insanity, stop throwing our money into the toilet bowl, stop bowing to pressure from lobbyists, stop trying to stop the bleeding from an amputated arm with a bandaid! Only when there is a real plan that doesn't react everytime someone says "help me, we need TAXPAYER money!" only then will things start to turn. Until then, EVERY SINGLE RALLY IS SHORTABLE! Sustainable rally? Booyahhead, you are a knucklehead and should know better. GM isn't the issue, the issue is that the stock market is VASTLY OVERVALUED. That means it goes DOWN, whether its today, or 3 months from now, its FINISHED, the party is OVER. Sub-5000 on the DOW, see ya there!
Watch Tuesday for some more down movement with turnaround Tuesday potential and a rally probably on some news. 900 on the S & P would be a nice turnaround potential point. Make sure you have stops set on your shorts, best thing that can happen is we get a rally and then we get to reshort higher, which has worked for us for a while now. Financials are in very bad shape and look a LOT lower near and far term. I would be very careful to try to catch that falling knife for more than an intraday trade. AXP was approved by the Fed to get loans as a bank holding company. Stock was up after hours. Just remember, every company that has done that is down DRAMATICALLY a few weeks later. See GS, MS for two very good examples. I expect AXP is in trouble and thus a great swing short if it gaps up. It may rally when we bounce Tuesday or short term, and thus I would just add to the short more than likely. These moves mean that these companies are DESPERATE. It should be a reason to sell the stock, not buy it, but that's why I say that this market, knock on wood, is the easiest freakin' market next to 1999 I have ever seen. Turnaround Tuesday? We shall see, but decent shot I think. Remember, TRADE 'EM, don't marry 'em! Next to go down? Sign up for Option Trader or the chat room and you'll find out, I have some, what I feel, are VERY strong plays coming up! RULE! Waxie

The curious case of Goldman Sachs...

As you all know by now, I have been short GS for a while, and am up quite a bit on that short obviously since its sitting right over 52 week lows. While the other brokers continue to get hammered, GS has held up remarkably well. It's been my experience over the years that often the best shorts in a bear market are the last stocks you would expect to fall. While they may hold up stronger for a while, when they roll over, they roll over in a BIG BIG way, and you have the added edge of a more dramatic down move. On this blog I've called and been right about a number of these stocks; POT, FSLR, LEH, FNM, FRE, GS, GOOG, etc.etc.etc. There are a few stocks here that still have a lot of downside left to them. Friday I called puts on TM. I got an email from a subscriber who asked why I would want to short TM, that if GM goes under (govt won't let it, wrongly) TM would pick up their market share. First off, that's not necessarily correct, and secondly, TM just announced sickly horrendous #s. The only way you can own TM here is if you think that they have made a Faustian deal with the devil! The stock is a $68.50 stock in the auto industry! Sales are cracked and will get worse more than likely. This is the type of swing short I'm looking for now, stuff that makes sense but the market hasn't caught up with it YET. I have a few on my radar that I'm giving to clients, but some of them I've mentioned before and continue to pound the table on them, like TM and GOOG and GS. GS is an enigma. They are in no man's land, and the only reason I hear for owning it is that they are "smart guys" and that they will figure it out. Really? Then why are they in this mess to begin with, if they are so smart and so good about figuring things out! With MS, MER, BSC, LEH, LM all slamming lower, GS should be $20s in a couple/three months. I see no compelling reason for us to rally here, other than some wishful thinkers. The financial sector looks ready to move down harder and lower, potentially this week. Several banks I LOVE LOVE LOVE short, some not so much. It's a good group to couple up if you have a sense as far as who will weather it out easier. This coming week I have to lean lower, but not heavy. At least not initially. Too many guesses and not enough clarity. Do we go back and retest recent lows, or do we bounce first? That's the ultimate question, and one we'll see soon enough on! I'm flying to Germany for a conference in a few days so may not be available here til I get back. Remember to rule! Waxie

The Fantasy Thinking, the Madness and the Sadness...

The market rose last week and Monday/Tuesday on Fantasy Thinking. Which, in layman's terms is HOPE. The fantasy that the Fed's moves are loosening the credit markets, freeing up captial for lending to stimulate the economy. The fantasy that a new President, as great as we all HOPE he is, will be able to solve what until now is unsolvable. The fantasy that valuations are so compelling that even though the whole world is in the crapper, you should be buying because the market is "cheap", and the fantasy that the market is forward thinking, and therefore the economy will turn around eventually and so you should be buying now for the time when the turn happens.

The Madness is believing any or all of the above and acting on it. The Madness is the government continually finding reasons to bail out companies that are antiquated becuase "it's too big to fail". The Madness is listening to these "reports" that suddenly get released right before GM's earnings that say that if ONE of the big three car makers fails that it will basically ruin the economy to the point of no return, and cost $100 BILLION. The Madness is that I haven't heard anyone say who sponsored this "report" and I'm thinking there is a conflict of interest in there somewhere. The Madness is that we're bailing out homeowners that can't afford the standard of living they have. The Madness is that despite every evidence to the contrary, analysts, fund managers and investors refuse to accept the fact that the market is not just a little overpriced, that it is VASTLY overpriced, even at 8600, even at 7500 and even probably at 5000.

I am VERY empathetic to those amongst us that are struggling. Most of us are struggling on some or many levels, there is a dark cloud hanging over a lot of things right now. I know that it is very un-PC to suggest that GM and F be allowed to fail and go bankrupt. We have a lot of Union workers as clients. I have many friends who are union workers in various industries. There is, however, a very distinct conflict of interest when the government is deciding who gets taken care of, and who doesn't. For example, by definition, let's say Trend Fund were to "fail" and we had to lay off all employees (plus I'd be out of a job, too!). Should the government bail Trend Fund out? Why not? Why should the people here have to go on unemployment while the government is going to bail out companies that can not possibly succeed. So, all they are doing is protecting the pension plans, and jobs that aren't necessary. It would be, in my opinion, much better for the government to extend unemployment benefits and in fact RAISE them dramatically so that there is a cost savings, rather than keeping companies going that will just bleed the taxpayers of everything they have, and thus extend this misery? The pensions, give buyouts so that those people are taken care of best case. But, just remember that when Enron went under, and LEH and others those people weren't remotely taken care of, they were let go and they let them lose everything in many cases. It's a problem when the government is just taking over everything on a whim, which is what's been happening clearly.

The sadness is the madness, and is the fantasy, because in my opinion most of what's been done will come back to haunt us, and it won't work - NONE OF IT. Yes, I am the grim reaper. Until the markets, companies, and people are allowed to succeed and fail organically again there will be no "bottom" in anything. It's frustrating. Look at everything they have thrown at the economy and at the markets and what good has it done? We are right off our multi-year lows and we show no sign of forming any kind of lasting bottom anywhere in sight. There is no rationale for anything being done, there hasn't been throughout this. That's part of why it's gottten worse, not better. The system is broken, and it needs to fail so that it can be reborn as something better and stronger. Nice rally last week, all those fools that rushed in to buy Monday and Tuesday this week are already SHOT. There needs to be a "time out" and a plan, but that's fantasy, madness and sadness on my part since it's just not happening and not likely to do so. Let's see what they do with GM. They can't possibly be ridiculous enough to give a $25 BIL loan to a company that is never going to recover. NEVER. You can point to history all you want, but as long as they have all those pensions on their books its just impossible for them to make enough to cover their nut. Very sad. Same as the homeowner who can't pay their mortgage, they need to be able to start from scratch! The market tomorrow SHOULD bounce at some point after the #s come that are going to be brutal, the thought being that it's "priced in". That's the fantasy and the madness, but you can trade both. Eventually you pay the piper, but probably we keep trading this range until we break it lower more than likely. Stay cash, stay a trader and stay in reality! RULE! Waxie

OK, I'm ready...

To give Mr. Obama a chance. I have to say that I was very impressed by the classiness of both candidates post-election results. And, I have to also say that I haven't seen the type of enthusiasm for a candidate perhaps ever in my lifetime. Whether or not the substance ends up being there I think it fair to give someone who, at least on the surface, carries a message that in my opinion has been sorely lacking in this country for a very very long time. We tend to be hero worshippers, I think, in this country. We put celebrities, politicians, CEO's of big companies and others at times on pedistools. We being a great big grandiose statement and a gross generalization. Yet, I've found it to be true. I'm just a dude and even I have had people do it with me at times. Many of us tend to compare our insides to others outsides and when you do that you always end up as a loser. Everyone has their own issues, imperfections and challenges, it's all relative. When you live on a park bench you find out that your hero worship is anyone who has a hot meal, or some pocket change. The knock on Obama is and remains to his detractors that he is all style and no substance. Even I have said that, at times. And, that may yet turn out to be true, but this country is in dire need of HOPE and a change. When I was growing up, even when I was struggling, I held the belief that the United States stood for something. Perhaps it's naive, but there were ideals, and some people even seemed to live by them. There were ethics, and we were generous. This was the place that asked for the rest of the world to give us their poor...you know the rest. One thing that I think happened after 9/11, at least in my view, is that fear became something that many 0f us lived with day to day. I certainly felt it at times. Fear does bad things to all animals, not just us humans. We become about survival, it's the old "flight or fright" mode. We start to look at things that are harmless as though they are out to "get us". Again, I'm generalizing, so forgive me if I am speaking in too broad strokes. My point is that we were founded on a belief system that was accepting of, well, everyone, or just about everyone. And, in my opinion somewhere along the way we became scared and frightened and we started to act in ways, at times perhaps, that violated our own belief system(s). One of my favorite films of all time is Dawn of the Dead. Seems silly, but the original is a brilliant parable for what I think I am trying to get at. Sometimes you end up killing the living because you fear the dead. We used to be a country that was idolized and welcomed in most countries. Fear has helped create, in my opinion, a country that is loathed in places where we used to be greeted with open arms. Instead of talking softly and carrying a big stick, we've taken on the role of hitting things over the head before even talking. We rule by fear, instead of respect. Respect is earned through good deeds, honesty and openmindedness, and ethics. It's earned by speaking one's truth, and hearing what others have to say, even if we don't agree with it. Our first amendment is very powerful stuff. Look at this blog, I write very inflamatory stuff at times. Without the first amendment I'd be arrested, or abused in some fashion because of some of the things I've written. A man, or woman, should not be judged by the words, but by actions. I've heard many politicians talk about being centrist. They were going to work with both parties (all parties) and while they may disagree about many things, they would walk away with respect and a better understanding. Until this crisis our country is in, I'd never seen both parties actually work together. Crisis does that at times, too. So does fear. I guess perhaps that's the flip side of things. Can you imagine what it might be like if that was an everyday, or at least every year occurance in government? Instead of thinking about the individual, it became about democracy. Instead of being a world leader based on how many weapons we have, we went back to being a world leader based on the merits of our actions as a whole. Maybe that's just plain naive, or perhaps some would view that as "whimpy". I think John McCain's speech was outstanding. I actually thought President Bush's short talk this morning was outstanding, and human. To me, we're all in this together when it comes down to it. That's the other thing 9/11 teaches. Republican's, Dems, Libertarians, gays, straights, Jews, Christians, Muslims, agnostic's were all killed in that act of terror. Will Obama be a bust? It's certainly possible, but he already has the respect of other nations. When was the last time other countries people's wore shirts with a US President's face on them? I do not agree with some of the things Obama has stated he wants to do on his agenda, particularly economically. But, I do have a sense that at least he will TRY to live up to his promises, and in this day and age where politicians make promises that even they know they have no shot of keeping, that is pretty refreshing. The only thing we really own in this life is our own integrity. The old adage about "two wrongs don't make a right" over simplifies this, but it's true in the end. Just because I am wronged doesn't give me the right to stoop to the level of the perpetrator. If I do, then what seperates me from them? I lose my integrity, I am nothing. Obama isn't remotely perfect, and he's certainly got flaws and will be a flawed president because that's the nature of life, and the Presidency. You can't please everyone, but the guy won over 52% of the popular vote as a black man who has a lot of baggage from his growing up. Perhaps fear itself in this case worked for him, in fact I am sure of it. He almost surely would not have won had the economy not been in such bad shape, and were the USA still looked upon with reverence and respect throughout the world. Surely we are not, and we haven't been for a long while. I think we stooped to our enemies level, and in a way, perhaps lost our integrity. Wall Street is not going to be happy with Obama, and I'm happy about that, because the vast majority of people in this country have more important things to worry about then whether or not the Dow is up 500 or down 500 today, tomorrow, or whenever. So, while I've been critical, and skeptical, I think that the guy deserves a shot to prove that this country can return to the status I used to read about in history books. While he will go down as the first black President, if that is all he is known for in a good way after his term(s), then he is a dismal failure. I hate to say it, but I have a feeling he might have a lot more substance than many imagine. We tend to be so jaded that someone who speaks like Ghandi and speaks of ideals is scoffed at. Regardless of what happens, I don't think they should be. We're all in this crazy thing we call life together, and that includes the entire world, not just US. The markets today are back to reality. Folks, we are going to go a lot lower, and you know what? That's ok, and it'll lead to a realistic market eventually. In the meantime we are absolutely busting this market wide open. If you read my blogs the last couple of days then you were short, like I and clients were - FSLR and SPWRA. Go check them out. We NAILED IT! Let's hope Obama nails it half as well! I could use some innocence and naivity in my life, and so can my little girls. I want them to grow up in a safe country, and a thriving country. It's about time we start going back to basics, and planning for the future, not just for "today". I rarely if ever show partisianship, I've learned not to mix politics with business. I made that mistake a long while ago and pissed a bunch of clients off. I just felt it important, as an independent, to say something because it has to do with the markets, and the economy, and ultimately the quality of life that we all collectively strive for. What we have now on many levels, I think the vast majority of us would agree, isn't working. It is, indeed, time for a change. Is this the right change? I guess we'll find out soon enough. I certainly hope so. Whether you voted for the man or not, I loved what John McCain said, he is our President. Let's keep an open mind and heart. God bless all. Michael "Waxie" Parness

S & P 1000...

As called here...have to say we are SMOKIN'! Have I told you guys that I LOVE LOVE LOVE this market? I mean, my gawd, this is sooooooo suweeettttt! This is the perfect storm of RAINING MONEY! I feel as though I am in stock market heaven! This is soooo sweet! Now we have a real shot to catch the next leg down, and it should be a real doozey. You know whats insane? Well, actually, a lot in the world is insane, but at the end of the day today they kept trekking out Bull after Bull after Bull saying that the market is oversold and that things are really cheap here and when stocks rebound, yadda yadda. I don't know, maybe its me, and maybe I'm just "Mr.Bear" (I've been called worse, fyi) but we've now had over a 20% move higher in two weeks across the board. We're oversold? WHEN the markets recover? Huh, I don't know, I thought a 20% move was pretty big, guess I was wrong! I wasn't wrong about my S & P 1000 call, though, so at least I'm right sometimes! Now we have the election results and assuming O'Bama wins, which most assume, I stick to my call to short the solars tomorrow at the open. We shorted FSLR for roughly $7 intraday before it bounced into the close. We were long STP and JASO early on for AWESOME profits as well. Hence the beauty of being a trader! And, this is why I say that you really need to NOT listen to the pundits. Think about this, GOOG announced, or at least CNBC announced that they have basically a hiring freeze. For a young company like GOOG to make that play is a HUGE thing, and this market is ignoring reality. Now, what you'll hear from pundits is that that means that we have bottomed (there's that idiotic word again). I'm here to tell you that's NONSENSE. This 20% move has been on VERY VERY light volume, and declining as we go higher. This is a Bear market rally and I believe we are 85 to 90% or more to break to new lows before year end. NOw, it's always possible I'll be wrong, but if I am it won't be because the market has priced in a recession, or the market is cheap, etc. It'll be because the market often runs against reality, there is often a disconnect. It always catches up, and that's why we have such a huge edge, because while I feel strongly that I am right, I made money today on the long and short side, same as yesterday, and same as last week. And, in my opinion that's the only real way to make money in this market. Yeah, if you get lucky and catch a bottom as an investor you are fine, but in the meantime tons of them got margined out before least week and sold the lows, or close to it. And, now they are putting their money back in here when I don't think we can possibly get higher than 10,300. That's a big move, but that is the top end of this move and if we get there I will be shorting with both fists more than likely. For us this is a gift, rallies like this, because now we get to reshort stuff at much higher prices. And, if I'm wrong, then we stop out and go the other way. This is what I call Trend bias trading (I actually just made that up, but it's catchy, huh?!). You have a bias, which can be long, short or neutral (yes, you can have a neutral bias!), and you act accordingly leaning that way and trading around that bias. RIGHT NOW my bias is moderately to the short side. Before today, leading up to S & P 1000 it was moderately to the long side. If you are going to swing here I think you have to swing short. Even if we hit the top end of the 10,300 peak I'm calling, then we should roll back over from there. And, as I said, I'm looking at the solars as a short here tomorrow off an O'Bama win. 1/2 share lot and then add another 1/2 using 10 am rule if they go our way, or waiting for a bigger pop toward 10,000 on the DOW to add the other 1/2. Still need to use 2% rule and use stops no matter what! In the meantime, I will see you all manana! RULE! Waxie

ELECTION CENTRAL!

If I hear one more time how an O'Bama victory is "priced into the market" I'll puke. Plain and simple. We tried to rally today but got rebuffed. GS as I said, weak as all hell, and to me looks headed straight to below $50 in the not too distant future. It's funny, the reasons I hear people who own it now say they do is because they think GS will "figure it out". That's brilliant! The reason to own a $90 stock is because you think they will figure it out! There is NO SHOT IN HELL that GS is on its own anything above $20 a year from now. You can mark it down and send me a hate mail or laugh at me if I'm wrong, but unless they merge with someone or get bought out, mark it, we're at sub-$20 within 12 months from today. In fact, I think it goes there before year end! But, I wouldn't bet on that one, though I guess I have since i own over 100 puts on the dang thing! Yes, another good day for the Waxie Express! Ka-chingo! Chat room is really racking up. We had some very nice plays today, and I expect more of the same tomorrow. I told Tiny today, that knock on wood, this is a sick easy market. I mean, I hate to say that cause it might anger the trading gawds, but jeez louise, I haven't seen anything like this since 1999 and in some ways this is even better because much of the volatility is very predictable. Key is to take those small losses and obviously capture the big gains! Tomorrow is a total crapshoot, I think just fade the moves all day, we should be all over the map, but probably in a fairly tight range, so scalpers day more than likely, or not. I honestly have no clue, how could I? Even Im not that good! hehe! I would watch the solars for trades, they may have another day in them, and then if O'Bama wins and they gap up, short at will is my take on a sell the news situation. We shall see! RULE! Waxie

Da rally continues...?

I think we should get another push up to that S & P 1000 level I've been saying. I covered all my shorts, other than GS, which I will add to if it pops on a move higher. The election is a wild card, I can't really do more than guess how we'll react to whomever wins. So, why bother? Rather stick to things that I am fairly sure of. 1000 seems like a pretty safe bet here, they really want to push us higher. The competing factor is that the week after FOMC the market almost always reverses the prior week's action. So, best case would be a nice push up, maybe get S & P to 1050 area and the DOW to the lower end of the 9700 to 10,300 level I've been pointing to as a potential top of this move, and then it should be a fairly safe trade to close the week lower. Having said that, the election really is a wild card. The race seems to be pretty close. I have friends who swear O'Bama can't win, and friends who say that he is a lock. Since I don't bet on elections I'll stick to stocks and see how we react. I think pre-election I want to be fairly flat. We may get a big move either way and I think the path of least resistence is to fade whatever the move is. That's been working SICK! The GAPS have been really really really profitable for a while now. Friday I said here that I was hoping for a gap down as I felt we would finish higher, and thats exactly what happened! Tomorrow I am hoping for the same thing because I feel pretty confident we do see that S & P 1000 level here. And, this is a good spot to do it. A gap up therefore makes it tough. I think we have to fade a big gap up and then cover and look for a long entry if it presents itself. This market is really such a traders market. We're all over the place, no ryhme and no reason. I've been reading a lot of articles lately, fund managers keep saying how cheap the market is, but its not based on anything reality related. Having said that, the shift last week to positive was great because it allows us much greater volatility. As I stated, my only real short (with puts) is GS, which is trading as though it wants my much lower target, but which may squeeze if the market does bust a move here early this week. I am long the S & P futures as my hedge. I have a bunch of stocks on my watchlist that I am waiting to see where i can reenter the shorts on them. I still think other than this move the money will be made to the short side. What we could really be setting up for, which for us will be awesome, is that the stuff that is dead in the water in my opinion, like the Ags, the energies and all the inflation stuff will get a move higher with the market. I would love to get POT to $100s again for a short entry. Yummy! Did you see the action in AAPL Friday? Gapped down on no apparent news and stayed down the whole day even with the rally. The market is ill, folks. It's ill and its not getting better, just being fed some meds to help it temporarily. I told clients that $110 was a decent entry on AAPL short. I stick to that, the stock is vastly overpriced. Tech is where I am looking for some nice reshort entries. We'll see either way. Oil and some commodities might get a nice push higher and the dollar lower here early this week. I think if we reverse off that move it'll be a really nice trade for you all.Oil at $75 would be a very nice short. Good luck and remember to vote Tuesday! Don't matter who you vote for, but vote! Waxie

Money, money everywhere!

I just got back from Miami where there are SO many empty and deserted developments. Condos are selling for less than the cost to build them. All the speculative money obviously WAY gonzo! Meanwhile, we're going to now pass another $500 BIL bil to allow homeowners to refinance. On who? Who is paying for all this? I think they should just cut to the chase, in all seriousness. Just print $100 TRILLION dollars and just hand it out to everyone. Then we can all buy multi-million dollar homes for CASH. I think we can call this the WAXIE PLAN! Why not? We're printing money all over the place, might as well just do it all at once! With MY plan, the WAXIE PLAN, we will create jobs, restimulate the housing industry cause people will be BUYING BUYING BUYING, and thus stimulate the economy. The booze business, prostitution and illegal drug trade will also zoom, but no plan is perfect! It'll also put generations into debt and impact our children and our children's children, but it's all good,dudes! It's ALL GOOD!
I shoulda not sold my apartment. I shoulda just pleaded poverty and said that my $3 MIL apartment needed a new mortgage! Maybe the government should just pay off all the mortgages in the country. While they are at it, they can pay renters rent 5 years in advance. Just give everyone a free pass! I have to say, it's pretty sickening. The market is running up just based solely on the amount of money the Fed is printing. What they don't seem to understand is they are RECREATING the same exact problems we are dealing with, only worse! But, what do I know? Maybe it'll all work and the DOW will go to 25,000. Maybe 35,000. 50,000? Nah, probably not 50,000! We've been really kicking this markets butt, I mean seriously. Up, down and all around, the calls have been pretty astounding. What's really awesome for us is that we are getting a very nice bounce here. I think S & P should see 1000, maybe even 1100 if the Fed keeps injecting more and more money into things. That will set up one helluva short, cause we are 1000% going to see 4500 no matter what they do. Mark it down, it'll come to pass. In the meantime, I am now looking at two things, trading the long side intraday and resetting some of my shorts with puts with one more nice push up. If S & P does see 1000 here shortly I'll be buying some puts on some of the ones I really like lower longer term. Look at today, HIG is done basically, PRU same, and the market rallied. It's kinda insane, its like there is the cone of silence around the market, making sure that no one sees whats really going on! But, again, as a trader this is awesome. and thats all I care about. This remains such a GREAT market to trade.If you catch moves you catch HUGE moves, this just moves in chunks. I would like a nice gap down Friday, cuase that should be VERY buyable. ASIA is barely down, and its the last day of the month and people are foolish, thinking they don't want to miss the move. Remember one of the golden rules? There is a bigger fear of missing an up move then there is about losing money! OK, so lets see where we go. I do think there's a good shot we see 1000 S & P either Friday or early next week. I'm not holding longs, but I have lightened up on shorts and trading the long side intraday for sure when appropriate. We caught stuff both ways Thursday, had some very very nice trades. My big short has been GS, and thats obviously paid off nicely. I expect MUCH lower prices on it but a rising market lifts all crapola and GS is crapola. Next week will be a big week, a lot of people are betting that we have a good November. Here's the thing, and it should be obvious to you all by now, but TRADING is the ONLY way to rule this market. We are all over the place, and everyone just rushes out and then rushes in with no real rationale either way. I mean, we going down because the market is VASTLY overvalued, and everything else is shot. We going up because the fund selling stopped temporarily and the Fed is injecting loads of money in, and we can't go straight down. And, THAT my friends is the advantage we have. We can be flexible and play it both ways, while investors are reamed and get margined out only to watch their stocks go higher once they are out. They get out, then they get back in and then they get back out, and that's why you simply can't invest, its a fools game, and its a losing game. I'll see you all after Holloween! I'm going as a Pirate, maybe I'll have the Fed walk the plank! RULE!

The meaning of life, or "How the market loves to print us money!"

On Saturday night I went out to this really good Indian restaurant uptown NYC with a buddy of mine. Food was really good, I go there often, maybe 2 times a month, which is a lot in NYC.
Sunday afternoon I drove by the place and there was an SUV that had swerved and drove right through the freakin' place! There were like 40 Fire trucks and ambulances, the whole car was parked firmly IN the restaurant. That's a rare occurance even for NYC! Fortunately by all accounts the couple that had been sitting right where the car struck left 3 minutes before it happened, and fortunately for me it didn't happen when we were there the night before! I remember when I was a kid, a friend of mine got run over by a car on Queens Blvd. in NY when a car jumped the curve and hit him accidentally. Random events that end tragically happen all the time, seemingly without ryhme or reason. Someone religious will put a spin on it with that bent, and I respect that, someone spiritual will say that there is some sort of lesson in it, and I respect that. In a way the market is totally random, as much as we use trends and TA and we quantify it in different ways, there are always variables that can overrule anything we or anyone can come up with. The DOW rallied nearly 900 points today. Why? Well, I can give you the very powerful TREND reason, we almost always run into the FOMC and the market was oversold and shorts wanted to cover before the meeting. And, that's mostly what happened. Random? Not really, but yes really. Our job here is to try to predict market movements, we do that better than any place I've ever come across. I'm biased, clearly, but we have been around far longer than most and we consistently provide winners to our clients. Today we shorted the open and then we went long and caught some huge winners after lunch. We had a couple of losers in between, mind you, but overall a very rewarding day. For me personally it was a VERY nice winning day. Wednesday the FOMC happens. We should get another bump early on and into the FOMC. The Fed will likely cut rates by 1/2 point as we are headed to zero percent interest. The market will like this news and probably pop initially as the first move. Never know, we'll see, but then the second move should be down, and then we'll really see where we want to go. S & P may really get my 1000 target. I still think 10,200 to 10,300 is the absolute top of any move here, and we probably don't even get there. More than likely we head back to 7500 level soon. The election is next Tuesday, and we may get a relief rally again if O'Bama or McCain wins, some will say that the market has priced in an O'Bama victory and the market would be happier if McCain wins. I hope we get a bigger up move, this is a market that is printing money, knock on wood, and the higher we go, the more room there is to the downside when that resumes. Couple people emailed me about this "tradeable rally" we're going to have. Maybe, maybe not. Remember last 1000 point up move we had? That was tradeable for a day and then we headed a lot lower. This isn't likely to last very long. It's possible we get an extended day move, but I don't really see us getting some vastly larger move. I hope I'm wrong, I constantly hope I'm wrong when I'm bearish. Since we trade we can avoid big losses and capitalize on moves both ways. See, the thing is, some things in life are random, or seemingly random at least. Me personally, I don't really believe in accidents, but that's just me. We each digest our own interpretations of life. I think since my mums passed away I take the market less seriously. It's ironic since I've had one of the best runs of my life as a trader. It really is amazing how good trading this market is. Best since 1999 and in some ways better. All you have to do is buy some ink once in a while and you can print the cash, too! In the meantime, it's late and I have a 7 am flight so I'm off to bed, maybe this doesn't even make any sense, maybe it does. I don't know if we get a bigger extention. I think there's a good shot we get a move early tomorrow and that we can rush after a 1/2 pt cut by the Fed. I would fade that move, whichever move and way it goes, cause that trend has worked for as far back as I can recall, its an excellent trading day and a great trend play to fade the 1st FOMC move for a trade. We usually then go back to the way we had gone and then pick a direction from there. THAT move is key, if we can close tomorrow near HOD, which I am skeptical about, but if we can, then we may move to 1000 S & P, maybe 1050 or 1100 potetnially. As much as I am bearish overall, I want us to move higher. So, do we get a tradeable rally? Well, 1000 pt days seem to come easy these days,thats what happens in a Bear market, snap back rallies lull you into a false sense of security. I would not fall for this one, but you have my levels. Random? PErhaps, but no more random then anything else in life. WAXIE

TURN OUT THE LIGHTS...

The party's been over for a while, now. It's scary at this point watching the same knuckleheads keep saying the same knucklehead things and the market does the same thing day after day. Yes, we are closer to a bottom! Of course you idiots! The market keeps going lower, ROFLMAO! Yes, you right for sure! DOW 8000 is closer to a bottom than DOW 9000. When we are at DOW 5000 we'll be even closer! UNREAL! Even guys who are smart and should know better like Art Cashen, they are all wishful thinking the market, as though its going to work. HELLO! HELLO! The market isn't going to zero, but it isn't going to get a 3 month rally either! It's not happening, sorry, folks! And, its NEVER EVER NEVER coming back! Sorry, you can wait 500 years and it's not going to new highs on the current S & P stocks! It's NEVER coming back. GE will never EVER NEVER see $40 again. MSFT isn't ever NEVER EVER seeing $35 again. It's just not happening. And, thats one of the problem, the notion that the market has to come back over time. NO, that's wrong and I will continue to say that until I am blue in my face! And, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, I think I am finally ready to start the Hedge Fund. I've gotten many emails asking me to do so, so I'm going to relent I believe and do so. I'm tired of watching these idiots lead people like Lambs to slaughter! So-called experts who know NOTHING other than to say "nows not the time to sell, you should be adding, we are!" Yeah? How are you doing with that strategy? Working for ya? No, of course not, you are killing people and you will kill your clients when we are DOW 4500, which we will be unfortunately. So, we'll see, I mean, I could lose money, there aren't any guarantees at all in the market, maybe I'll smoke people, too. But, one thing I am sure of, it won't be because I am only buying stocks that I think have no shot to go up. That I am quite sure of. My new book, Rule Your Freakin' Retirement, will be the 1st book ever that I am aware of to teach trading techniques and recommend you NOT be invested much in the market. Blaspheme? No, its smart. When this is over unfortunately people are going to lose EVERYTHING and many many people won't be able to retire, its very sad. We have blindly trusted the system and the institutions that were created merely to be self serving, and now they are feeding people the BS that its not the time to sell. Let me be clear, now IS 1000000% the time to SELL! Sell while you still have something left, folks, cause I believe you won't have much if you hold for long. I'll see ya at the BEAR HUNTING CLASS tomorrow! If you haven't signed up, you need to do so NOW! Email - sally@trendfund.com and she'll set you right up! RULE!

Man, this is messed! And, the story of IRVING...

OK, I'm reading more and more disturbing things over the weekend. I think that Paulson and Bernanke are actually Ricky Jay and his 52 assistants. The magician/actor who often appears in David Mamet films. I mean, these guys are something else. Now we are going to inject money into the insurers! And, now AIG is asking for more than the $80 BILLION they said they didn't even need! They now are up to $120 BIL and growing! There is NO CAP on this spending! IT IS INSANE! The inmates are running the aslym, and NONE of it has shown or will show it works! I think we should just do what we are going to do once O'Bama wins anyway and just declare capitalism DEAD and admit we are a socialist nation and that the French and Europeans have had it right all along and we were fools for saying that Capitalism is the best system. I mean, let's just call it what it is, because we have now Nationalized companies, and we are bailing everyone out who has enough lobbying power to put pressure on the powers that be, so we are a Socialist nation, its clear. It's amazing, no one says a peep but there's no way anyone can deny the facts and they are pretty freakin' clear that we now are the world's largest socialist regime. What truly sucks is, we the taxpayers are on the hook for socialism and we don't even get Healthcare! I mean, if we're going to be a Socialist country, at least give everyone Health care! That's one of the benefits of being socialist, you have nationalized health care. We don't even get that! I keep praying that there will be a mass rally and that taxpayers will be heard because this is taxation without representation to its FULLEST! What taxpayer is for bailing out all these companies? No one I know, people were sold a BS bill of goods that the stock market would crash and burn if the bill wasn't passed, therefore it had to be passed! Well, I said it then and I'll say it again, and the facts speak for themselves, the stock market has declined precipitously since they passed the bailout plan obviously. I've said it 100 times, this will go down as the biggest CON JOB in the history of the US. This is bigger than the Brinks Job! And, its only going to get worse, all in the name of helping US. WRONG! It's hurting us, and it's hurting our children and their children! If people can not afford to live in a house, they should not live there, period. I'd like to live in a 100 acre mansion by the sea, with 17 bedrooms, 3 maids quarters and outside are parked my 7 Bentley's and 13 Ferrari's! Unfortunately, I can't afford that! So, no one should hand it to me! If I make enough money and decide to afford that, that's my choice, but I probably never will (and I doubt I'd ever waste so much money, I'd probably cut back to only 11 Ferrari's, hehe!). What BEST case is going to happen, in my opinion, is that they will continue to try to prop up the economy and housing markets (and stock markets) and fail worse and worse and people will lose their 401Ks (did you notice they are all using MY coined phrase! Turning their 401k into their 201k! That was MY LINE! RRRRG! OK, so thats really the best case scenario. EVERYTHING the Fed has done the market spits in its face. What are they going to do then? Refund everyone's stock losses? This is just INSANE!

OK< that's my rant for the night! Hope you enjoyed it! Now let me tell you why this market has a LONG LONG LONG way DOWN to go and why we are stuck for a long while..

Let me tell you about THE STORY OF IRVING...

So, a good friend of mine called me up last week and said that his father was very upset and he was worried about his mother, who isn't in great health anyway. His father, Irving, had everything he worked his whole life for in the stock market, outside his home. His father and mother are both in their mid-70s. They have been retired for a few years, Irving had owned a restaurant and was a hard worker his whole life. Irving has lost roughly 50% of his worth in the last few months. He was worth roughly $1 MIL and now he is worth roughly $500,000. That's a lot of money for a lot of people, he's not dead broke obviously but they are rightly concerned. My friend gave my number to his parents to call me and wanted to make sure it was ok they called me. Obviously it ok with me I said, though I told him to make sure they know I'm not licensed or registered, I'm just a dude with an opinion, and I can't give them advice. No problem. I spoke to Irving for about 2 hours, he told me how upset they are, how their advisers are saying they should not only not sell anything, they should buy MORE! Irving doesn't have any more money, so he can't. He asked me what I thought about the market, and I told him what I say here, verbatim, the market I believe is going to 4500 or lower and that I personally don't own a single stock long, nor would I for more than a trade. What was sad is that he kept talking to himself almost, as though to convince himself that it was the right thing to hold on and pray. I asked him if he had considered maybe doing a 50/50 since he clearly wasn't going to sell it all no matter what. I asked him if he had heard of covered calls to protect and hedge his positions. He had vague recollection of someone saying he should do that, but had no clue what it was and he said "but what happens when GE comes back, it'll cost me money to do that!"

And there you have it in a nutshell, there are so many Irvings (and they aren't all Jewish!) that are so used to the market eventually/supposedly coming back that they won't sell. That is until complete capitulation, which will ultimately mark a TRUE bottom, at least for that moment in time. But, we are a LONG way from that, my friends! Thing is, Irving and his wife could survive and live the life they are used to on that $500,000 and have their house as excess security, but because he will stubbornly hold it all and pray, it is very likely he will be forced to do things he wasn't planning on doing. Maybe he has to work again, maybe he has to take a loan against his home, which may be problematic as prices decline further, or maybe he is just screwed and has to ask the government for help. He may need a bailout if his house declines too much in value. Forget the other issues, which include the fact that he has to take care of his oldest daughter who is basically an invalid and in a home for his illness, or the fact he has to help his son, my friend, who was laid off. If I could give him literal and personal advice, what would it be? SELL EVERYTHING IMMEDIATELY, EAT THE LOSS and move on! He's been in the market for 50 years anyway, so much of the "loss" was gains he previously got. My guess is he's still "up" overall. 50 years ago GE was a lot lower, even with the drop it's had! If it was my money I'd be so far out of this market your head would spin off! SELL SELL SELL! But, truth is, even if I told him that, he wouldn't sell, HOPE is, after all, a four letter word!'

This week is going to be volatile, thats all I can promise you at this point. I'm iffy both ways. I'm thinking lower, but we certainly can get a decent bounce, so I'm staying neutral this instant. Sorry, but thats what I feel, so thats what I say! We'll get a clearer picture soon, until then keep the powder dry and remember - CASH IS KING!

RULE!

Waxie

So much for cheap markets

Looks like we're going to get to my 4500 target a lot sooner then expected, folks! Sorry I haven't posted, been a bit under the weather. Having said that, I had to log in here now. Good thing I was short overnight! Obviously wish it was heavier, hehe! This is why you guys pay me da big bucks! Cause you're ALL CASH and none of you have a single stock long, right? I sure hope so, cause this is only going to get WORSE. The system is broken, its not likely to get fixed anytime soon. Will we capitulate and bounce? It's possible but it won't last long. Not until people stop chasing like sheep watching analysts on CNBC who have NO CLUE and should be sued, and you all know I hate litigation as people are responsible for their own actions. The problem is, you have all these absolute idiots who keep pom pom waving saying "the Dow will DEFINATELY be higher 10 years from now, so buy buy buy!" NO, thats WRONG! You don't hold through this! This is not a buyable market in my OPINION under any circumstance. WE TRADE! I can't say it enough! DO NOT OWN STOCKS! Trade 'em, don't marry 'em! OK, so today I would expect we TRY to bounce at some point. Will it last? It might, and we could get a nice reversal and you will hear all day about the BOTTOM being in if that happens. It isn't, trade it if so but I do not believe that we are anywhere near the bottom, even though we will open down potentially 1000 points or more, that does not make it the bottom. Watch 7500 (or if possible 7370s for potential big bounce points. 7500 is the next large support level on the market, its around where we hit in 2003. In the meantime, I really hope you guys all heeded my suggestions, I know a lot of you have, but I'm sure some of you will die a very stubborn death. We are doing another Bear class starting Monday and if you are interested, which you ALL better be, email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you signed up. It's the same price as the last one and its a two day class with both Tiny and I. Class starts MONDAY (this coming) and I should be going Tuesday or Wednesday. Let's rock! Option Traders are ROCKING! We have puts all across the board! HBC is a beast call, wowsa! I know I'm gonna make a lot of money today! Wheeee! Oh, one other thing, as I've said, the economic bailout is going to go down as the biggest CON of ALL TIME, you should write your congressperson and senators and tell them SHAME ON YOU! Listen to Waxie! Hehe. Also also, watching Booyahhead last night was SICKENING! AGAIN! He is blaming hedge funds for this? This guy sells books? That's the dumbest thing ever. The market prices based on reality and psychology. It's amazing, last night after MSFT reported all CNBC did was pom pom wave how great a report it was! NONSENSE! What a bunch of CRAP! I felt ill, they lead lambs to slaughter! Nice going, dudes! Why doesn't anyone say anything? I heard 500 times in the last month, at least, that you shouldn't sell, it was too late to sell! What a crock of BS, damn it! I am so angry that people keep saying that this is "the buy of the century!" How? Based on what? I just don't get it, and it makes me sick. Not that anyone is wrong, I'm wrong a lot as a trader (and in life) but I would never GUARANTEE anything! Anyone who does is just wrong, dead wrong and the people you watch on TV, including Mr.Buffet who pom pom wave are just WRONG and will continue to be wrong for a VERY VERY long time! This is just one step toward properly pricing the stock market, you heard it hear! I wish I was pushing to get on TV cause not that I know much, but I did know this! RULE! And, see ya Monday at the BEAR HUNTING CLASS! Waxie

S & P should see 1000 here

AAPL #s horrid, but stock zooming. Little late for my party, but such is trading. We may get a nice pop tomorrow if AAPL holds up. It should set up a nice opp later this week to the short side, but here I'd be looking tomorrow using the 10 am rule either way. Today's selling was opposite of yesterday's buying, which means it was lackluster, that leads to exaggerated moves both ways. Shorts may scurry tomorrow with the way AAPL is just chugging after hours here. Keep in mind that one reason AAPL is chugging is that it has $25 BIL in cash and had a 80 BIL market cap as of the close today. That's a lot of gun powder to rely on.
This market is looney, so I'm trading smaller lots here until we get a clearer signal either way. One day up, one day down is very choppy. Watch the 10 am rule Wednesday, a breakout over the highs should be buyable. A breakdown not sure. Let's see what shakes out. See, I told ya AAPL would go up! yeah, ok, so I also said to sell it before the close, hehe! Ahhhhhhh, the life of a trader! As I write the stock continues to plow higher, up $15 from its afterhours lows. Very energized move. It'll be an interesting day tomorrow, keep the powder dry! Waxie

Is the bottom in?

Simple = NO, not on your life!

However, as I've stated, nothing goes in a straight line, and I thought we would see he S & Ps at least hit 1000 again. In fact, I would not be surprised if we hit 10,000 to 10,300 on the DOW.

I've gotten a lot of emails asking why I would call AAPL long even though I have it on my Bear list(s). That's what makes trading, folks! You need to stay nimble! You can't get caught being overly bearish, or bullish and then getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar when we go opposite your bias!

This is why Bear markets are always so disasterous, because everyone tries to pick bottoms and fund managers need to be invested in the market more often then not, so they have to try to find places of entry. Buffet Friday gave them a reason to justify reentry.

So, what will happen more than likely is that we get these rallies of sorts on very light volume and then the market will sell off on heavier volume and crush all the funds and wishful thinking investors who keep trying to pick a bottom. And, then when they finally ALL give up, thats when the real bottom will be in place, at least for a while.

So, do I think ultimately AAPL sees the other side of $50? Absolutely, same as I said that when I had GRMN, RIMM and 20 others now that have done what I said they would. BUT, AAPL reports earnings tomorrow after the close and thus, for me, is a buy on weakness into the report, very similar to what GOOG did. AAPL is following the same pattern, and as a Trend Trader I'm always looking for that type of mimicking move. AAPL is still a cult stock, so it may also get upgraded tomorrow by some analyst into the earnings. Thing is, regardless if AAPL goes up or down, its a good high % play to me. That doesn't mean it'll work, it very well may not, the stock is trading like its about to fall off a cliff, but I need to stick to my plan and my plan is to sell AAPL before the close. I own some calls on it, so I'll either make or lose money before earnings come out. Chances are AAPL will get a bounce off earnings, there are a lot of people short it, but since I like the stock to $50s, I just don't want to hold it over earnings. Look at RIMM for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things over earnings to the long side, and look at GOOG for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things to the short side over earnings! Both stocks went about $50 post earnings! That's reason enough to not gamble! The play is into earnings. Best for us to trade off of tomorrow will be to get a nice gap DOWN, fade it to the long side and then go from there depending on what the market gives. Remember, if we are going to get a couple or three days rally, which we may, then there will be lots of laggards that play catch up with todays move. Ultimately this will fail more than likely, just like all the others have so far. There's no signs unfortunately of any economic pickup, there can't be for quite a while. They are going to do another stimulus package, but it can't really help unfortunately. Growth doesn't come with these types of phoney stimuluses. Growth comes organically. The market needs to find its own level, its insane they keep tossing the kitchen sink at the market as though there is some panacea they will find that will fix the whole thing at once! It's idiotic and doomed to make things worse, but no one can stop a beaurocracy once its in motion, my friends. Plesae do me a solid and write CNBC to ask them to have me on, same with Neil Cavuto. I haven't had time since my kids were born to really put myself out there like I used to, so I do this, but I think its time for me to give my take on things, and it's time for reality to be brought into the conversation, there are so many pom pom wavers and so few truth tellers! And, please, for G-ds sake, tell that guy Dennis to shut up! I have a dang headache! RULE! Waxie

Buffet is DEAD WRONG!!! AGAIN!

It's amazing, CNBC should dress Maria and Mark up in cheerleader outfits. They continue to cost investors real money by constantly pumping the market. The marekt rallies and then dies, which is what it'll do for the next few YEARS. People believe what they want to and they see what they want to in terms of reality. Warren Buffet is a very smart guy, but he also has an agenda and like most other really smart guys, they are getting KILLED in the market this year. According to last weeks Barron's Buffet sold puts against the S & P and is down over $2 BIL this year in his own trading (he needs Trendfund.com!). So, of course he will come out and say now is the time to buy, he's desperate! No way you say? Really? Look at Kirk Kekorian, it looks like the guy has basically lost 3/4 of his net worth in F and MGM and others! You simply can not will a market to go up. Buffet should know better, but we've all been trained for so long we refuse to believe the obvious, the market WILL 100% see 4500 or less and these guys all buying and buying more are gonna get cracked big time. It's irresponsible for CNBC to continue to ra-ra the market, attempting to will it up! Friday I called the early move, but we had a couple losers as well since I got stuck on being bullish for the day. Bad idea, and just shows you what I get for being bullish, even if its for 2 or 3 hours! Let's rock next week! We are doing another BEAR HUNTING class due to popular demand! I'll have more info shortly to send you all.
ROCK ON!

Waxie

Yummy Yummy for my tummy!

OK, so that was potentially the easiest day in a long time! A 400ish Gap up after Monday? Yeah, sure that was gonna last!

I can't post much, but even while shooting a new show all day I made a nice KILLIN'! while chillin'!

We may get a bounce again Wednesday, we'll see, but I am sticking to the no longs overnight stance here. Govt has rigged the financials, I wish someone gave me $25 BIL! That's be very cool!

GOod luck Wednesday and Thursday!

RULE

Waxie

Ya gotta love this market, baby!

Wowsa!

I said last week Thursday that my only concern was that they would just tank us to the 4500 level right away! I mean, I know we're gonna get there, I was just hoping it would take a year or two!

Well, I shouldn't have worried, the government was gonna bail us out again, babies! Whew!

Man o man, what a day, hehe. This is the thing about Bear markets, you usually get the bulk of the move in a very short time frame. Bull markets stutter step up, bear markets stage crazy short covering rallies. You'll notice today that much of the move was created by the most heavily shorted sectors and stocks. GOOG was up $50ish, BIDU $60ish, GS up $22, MA up huge, Oil stocks, etc, etc. These types of moves are atypical to a Bullish move longer term. The bulls will argue that THE bottom is in, but I think thats rubbish. This is, unfortunately, all playing out the worst possible way. We are now nationalizing the stock market in the name of saving the economy, the Dems are rushing through a bill to create false jobs that aren't needed, billions of dollars will be ripped off by dishonest officials and the tax payer gets strapped with the whole bill! I pay a lot of money in taxes, I really don't want to give money to Citibank to help them. Why in the world would I want to do that? That's insanity, but thats whats been created, if this isn't the most disgusting non-display of democracy, its shameful. I made money today, in fact I've made money for a lot of YEARS lately, sick sick money. My futures acct is up like a gazillion % after today, my stock acct even more. I feel like its 1999 again! It's awesome, but it's ridiculous that we now live in a country where the government feels its appropriate to control EVERYTHING. All in the name of saving the system! Whatever, its a waste of time and I'm beat and have a new infomercial to shoot tomorrow. I'm headed to bed soon and I will do some Yoga before I hit the hay. In the meantime, tomorrow we look good for another big gap up! Hehe, the market is awesome! It's like a reality show, you get to see how wacky the people running Wall Street are. They dump stocks like mad dogs and can't wait to get out for a couple of weeks and today they can't wait to rush back in to get the same exact stocks are HIGHER PRICES! That's why trading is the ONLY way to make money in the market, folks, cause its the only way you have an edge. And, in order to make real money in the real market, you need to have a real edge. No real edge, no real money, all you get are Bear market rallies where every pundit alive says "buy buy buy!" and what you should be doing is SELLING SELLING SELLING into it! My plan? I'm off for a few days here, but if we hit around 10,000 to 10,300 I am resetting some shorts on my favs. It'll be interesting cause GOOG reports this week and if GOOG misses and gets cracked then the rest will fall in behind it, but if GOOG flies post earnings then you'll see a much bigger move higher. So, I'll preface my entries to coincide with GOOG earnings. I hope they blow out and go crazy to the upside. The problem with what the government is doing is that they keep creating false realities and eventually false realities become reality and reality isn't really pretty right about now! Either way, I'm trading this to the hilt. Tomorrow's open should 100% be fadeable either way. If its a big gap up I would look to fade that initial move and then use 10 am rule as a guide from there to see if we can continue the trek higher or if the move is just about done and fini!

Either way, rule HARD!

Waxie

Next week...

Nice reversal today, I should have caught it better, but what can ya do? We hit below 8000, well ahead of schedule for the 4500 ultimate target. We bounced HEAVY and with a rush. We SHOULD get a rally here but how far is the real and only question. 9000? 9500? 10,000? I think 10,000 would be great place to reset shorts in a big way. GS hit our $75 target, who knew? It'll head much lower overall, but remember that a rising tide lifts ALL boats and the same applies to the market, so don't get stubborn with any shorts you might have, we'll look to reenter when the market tips its hand.

Shooting the new infomercial next week, will be out of commish for Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday more than likely, so trade SMART!

RULE

Waxie

This is truly a historical event...

I'm sorry I was right, truly. I would rather be wrong, trust me. We are witnessing what very well may be the meltdown of the entire economic system. As I write this the futures are down another 250 points. The DOW is down over 20% in 7 days. The Russell is down from 750 a few weeks ago to now approaching 450. The stock market is no longer a viable means, and hasn't been for a LONG time, way of investing for your future, or for anyone's future.

While the powers that be continue to pound the table on the idea that if you have a long time horizon you should "hold on, it'll come back" is flawed beyond belief. As I've stated here, if you aren't willing to buy, you shouldn't be holding. A friend of mine who is a bond trader told me that one of his mentors used to say that "every day you rebuy the stock you own". I like that a lot. Think about it. Stocks are marked to market, as they should be and as assets should be, thats reality. So, if you own IBM today and its $90 at the close, then in order to hold it for tomorrow you have to rebuy it. Not literally, but figuratively for sure. When we do seminars in Las Vegas I always make the analogy that if you are playing Blackjack and you are "up" $5000 and then you play the next day and you lose $5000, to me you lost $5000 the second day. Most people, I think, look at it as they broke even. To me if its in your pocket, or your chip pile, then you own it, its yours. If you then lose it, then you, well, lose it. You lost $5000, you didn't break even. If you use this logic with your IRA or other investments then you have no choice but to be aggressive and not passive and you need to decide every day if you want to hold them. The stock market hasn't gone up in over 10 years. In fact, its down DRAMATICALLY! So, the notion that in 10 years you'll be ok is fatally flawed, right? I mean, if you used that same logic 10 years ago then you are down at least 30% and probably a lot more since most Blue Chips are down a lot more than 30% in that time frame and some are down 70 to 80% or more (EMC, C). So, this FALSE notion that if you have a long term time horizon you should hold is very much fatally flawed.

I've really ranted the last couple of months, I know. I won't apologize, I care deeply about my clients and my country and the world around us. And, what's being fed to us is garbage. This market is a sitting duck, its not coming back, probably EVER. There will be other markets, but not this one, this one is shot, stick a fork in it. How do I know that? Well, I don't "know" it, I don't know much of anything in life, I make and have made a LOT of mistakes in my life. That's what we humans do, we make mistakes and hopefully we learn enough to not repeat them again, or again and again.

I've mentioned it here several times, but the thing that has happened in every Bear market I've ever studied that is that the market ALWAYS underestimates the degree of pain and the magnitude of the decline. ALWAYS.

This Bear Market IS different, folks. This is a historic event, its kinda like Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes in the last scene when he sees the the Statue of Liberty and out blurts "they finally did it. Damn you, damn you to hell!" Or something to that effect. Well, they finally figured out how to break the markets. This isn't about Bulls and Bears, this is about a system that is fatally flawed and that is BROKEN.

OK, I know, I know, I am and have been repeating myself. Oh, goodie, as I write this the futures have bounced and we're only down 150 pts. Rally! Now, here is the deal, just remember that any rally will be sold into so the upside here is limited. One strong trend is that when you have this type of environment that redemptions are going to escalate, margin calls are going to be unwound and reality will set in. The government proved that they really don't have an interest in saving the capital markets, which makes sense. They are now taking equity in the banks because a ton of them are bankrupt, their liabilities outweigh their assets. WM, WB, gonzo. AIG, FNM, FRE, LEH, BAC gonzo. Next in my opinion?

I'm putting together a list of stocks that I think are going to go under. I'll preface this by saying that I am NOT an expert in this type of research. I'm just a trader. A lot of what I am basing the list on is the option market and the way stocks are trading. I'm going to be sending out an alert shortly, either tomorrow or over the weekend. Hopefully they aren't all out of business by then!

Again, while I am making money, I would much rather be making money as stocks go UP. And, that does and will happen, but mainly because I think its very very sad that people who have saved to retire and trusted blindly a fatally flawed system are going to have a hard time retiring.

I'll repeat what I've said 100 times now. There needs to be a moratorium on government intervention in the capital markets. Clearly they are not helping. There is a law of physics, every action has an equal reaction. There are others, the law of unexpected consequences. When the Fed does one thing to patch up one leak, it creates another. There should be a moratorium so that a REAL solution can be found. This is INSANE what they are doing in the name of "we have to do something!" Yes, they do - NOTHING until they get a REAL SOLID LONGER TERM solution. Instant gratification has never gotten anyone anywhere, it's highly unlikely it'll cure the markets ills, folks.

I'm sorry, hopefully at least the majority of you have heeded the market calls we've made at Trendfund.com and helped save you and make you some Ka-chingos.

I'll be back here tomorrow. It'll be a volatile day tomorrow for sure, its going to be that way for a while and thats what we traders love.

FSLR folks, its still $119 and today a report came out that said that estimates are going to come down. Take it for what its worth, you couldn't give me money to buy FSLR with. $119 solar stock in this? See ya at $25, baby, see ya at $25!

This is historic, but that doesn't make it any less painful for many people. I never feel guilty about shorting things and making money, its very impersonal, its a job, but I do feel badly that people are being sold down the river - Like lambs to a slaughter.

RULE

Waxie