What now?

OK, so this week Monday's close will be crucial to the health of the market here, particularly TECH, which we feel will be the next in line to sell off. AAPL reports earnings after the close. The stock, like GOOG was, is trading horrendously. Does that mean it sells off post earnings? Not necessarily, but it'll be interesting nonetheless.

The RUT puts played out nicely Friday if you played them. I am staying a big neutral here to see how the week plays out. We may get another push a bit higher. One market that is interesting here remains CHINA. The Olympics are 3 weeks away and their market is cracked, it could get a bounce here that is tradeable. We played the FXI and CAH before with nice results, its not a bad idea here if you use a stop loss. And, it could be a nice hedge if you do short some US stocks here.

We had some awesome calls this week, hopefully a lot of you guys are at least trying our services. Option Trader has been ON FIRE beyond belief. We had GOOG twice this week for HUGE gains, and we had USO puts that more than doubled in two days! We also sold our financial stock puts for HUGE HUGE HUGE gains (LM puts were like 500% gainer, literally!).

Option Trader is our single most popular service at the moment, give it a whirl for a month, no guarantees, but the results for the last year plus have been pretty amazing. I have a lot of testimonials to back it up if you are interested email me at waxie@trendfund.com

Our TOP TEN TECH SHORT class will be held later this week. An alert will go out by Monday for signups. Also, please fill out your survey's if you haven't already, you get a free $25.00 certificate good for use on any product we sell, including the short class, so it's a good use of time and will help us better serve you guys now and in the future.

Friday I made a couple of bad calls, I have to admit. I called LEH long at around $18, which was the right call, but then called SKF long as well, which was the wrong call. We looked early as though they might sell the news on C. I made the mistake of thinking SKF might get pinned higher, which didn't happen, they basically pinned $135. My bad. Hey, it happens. We got MF and made some nice sheckels late day, though, so there ya go, and MF could get a nice gap up Monday if the market decides to stay a bit positive. Monday's open should be a nice fade either way. I think the Bulls and the Bears are lined up and are going to have a nice fight here. A lot of people were caught short, and a lot of funds came in with both fists buying, sending the market zooming. You'll notice what happened, the stuff that was and has been red HOT and the so-called safety stocks, like energy, AGs, and such all SOLD OFF HUGE (hence our USO puts being so steller!). Commodities are cracked here. There is definately a pairing in this market which is a good way to guage and profit from the market. Commodities up, financials and consumer staples down. Commodities down, reversal. Oil $150 was strong resistence, a lot of funds that were long unwound the position over $145. I'd like oil to pull back here as much as anyone, I think $125 looks to be the next level. This weekend if there is good news out of Rice's trip to Iran, and US policy looks to have short term solved that issue, oil SHOULD pull back in a big way and the markets could get a further boost UP.

I like that scenario, I think thats how it plays out, which is why I am backing off the idea of flat out shorting the market this instant. Let's wait and see how it pans out. For the moment, I think oil heads lower unless news overcomes that view. You can short oil futures, I did this week, with Terra Nova (http://www.terranovatrading.com/). That's who we recommend as a broke, and who I use. Tell them Trendfund.com sent you and they'll give you some nice discounts and some free trades I believe.

In the meantime, its a beautiful day in NYC and I intend to enjoy it! See ya all Monday!

happy trading!

RULE!

Waxie

Rally time...

And then,,,,MSFT = miss...GOOG = miss...MER = miss.

Futures down pretty deeply.

Dudes, and dudesses. We've had a nice rally/short squeeze. Be very afraid here, I feel strongly that TECH is the next giant to get slayed and all this rally did was set it up so we can take the financials short again next week! This rally is going to peeter out fast, folks. I like the RUT.X puts again and think the Russell should see the other side of $600 before the next options expiration (August). Maybe, maybe not, but I like tech short. The short class will be set tomorrow as far as date.

I think this market is setting up for a pretty steep decline near term. MER earnings show that things are not any better. The SEC and FED propping things up can only last a short period of time.FNM and FRE will be ZERO, period. That's my take.

I'm probably going to short (yes, evil, I know) FNM and FRE tomorrow. They will probably pin $7.50 and $10.00 on them. Watch pin action tomorrow. I think GS several issues look good here, but will reserve that for another forum.

GOOG down $50s after hours, BIDU down 4+%, MER down big, IBM down even after blowing out. This is a BEAR market rally.

I also like WM puts, the Augusts as I think WM is the next to fail. We'll see soon enough, won't we?

See ya all manana!

RULE

Waxie

Senator Jim Bunning...

Had to be a pitcher, right? OK< here is the exact quote, I was fairly close...and I agree, it is mindboggling how we continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over again and keep going back to the source that made the mistake asking them what we should do...

This is off Senator Bunning's webpage, fyi...
____________________________________________________
Third and finally, since I expect we will try to get right to questions in the next hearing, let me say a few words about the G.S.E. bailout plan. When I picked up my newspaper yesterday, I thought I woke up in France. But no, it turns out socialism is alive and well in America. The Treasury Secretary is asking for a blank check to buy as much Fannie and Freddie debt or equity as he wants. The Fed’s purchase of Bear Stearns’ assets was amateur socialism compared to this.

Turnaround Wednesday!

OK, so Wednesday the buying came in fast and furious and we got a VERY nice TREND UP day at last! That's what you call a very nice SHORT SQUEEZE!

The squeeze was incited by several factors;

1)We were/are severely oversold
2)The Fed is basically saying that they will buy the stock market to avoid it going down more
3)Wells Fargo had (expected) good results

#1 is really the main reason, but the Fed really is doing investors an injustice long term. They are setting up even larger losses. We're putting together a really good onlinse seminar on HUNTING FOR BEAR, how to trade and profit from a Bear market. I think it's gonna be a home run class for a lot of reasons. One of the things I've learned over the years is that trending markets (up or down) have many similarities to each other, and if you can pinpoint them you can make oogles of money!

Today's kind of rally is a typical oversold SNAP BACK rally into a Bear market downtrend.

These rallies tend to be VICIOUS, like today's where they crush anyone short. We got long several things, including FSLR and GOOG (Option Trader intraday had a better than 50% gain on the $520 GOOG calls! SWEET!). We were/are also short the USO, which you'll notice was one of the few things/sectors downon the day, so DOUBLE Ka-chingo!

The trick/key is not to be exact in your time, the key is to limit your losses if you are on the wrong side of the market and not get greedy. SKF, which we basically called around $125 went all the way to $200 yesterday. Today it was down 20%! You need to make sure you are taking profits as things go and so if you get stopped out of a position you don't give back much of your gains. The worst thing a trader can do, and I've done it myself, trust me, is to have a nice gain and turn it into a break even, small gain or the worst - a loser!

OK, so thats the trading piece of things, though I will say that a nice gap down would be a nice buy for at least a bounce to green. Right now the futures are down here, so hopefully they stay down for the open decently and we can fade them. Remember, GOOG reports after the close Thursday and that is going to be a KEY report for the market, particularly tech near term. I think they will beat and guide up nicely, they usually do. How much by will dictate what happens to this market near term in techland. I'm hoping its total blowout like last quarter and we can get GOOG to $600s! That'll set up some nice shorting opps in the next few weeks. This is why I wanted to wait to do the TOP TEN TECH SHORTS class. So, now we'll set it for mid next week, I'll announce the date by Friday more than likely. I didn't want to do the class before we saw some earnings. JPM in the am will get the financials in gear some more, or pull them back in a bit. The question is, did we mark a near term "bottom" or was this a one day wonder rally like we've had in this Bear market several times? I think we could get some sideways action, and maybe move toward 11,500 - 11,700, but I would not be that hungry to be long here for more than trades just yet. You see the problem with these types of rallies is, they happen so fast its hard to get in, and usually what happens in a Bear market is that people get in at the last minute, when the rally is all but over.

The Fed is basically making us a socialist country. It's funny, on Tuesday there was a senator who really went after Bernanke, I didn't catch his name, so someone please email me to let me know, but he had a great line, and I paraphrase "yesterday I went to bed at night and when I woke up I didn't realize I was in France, but I was" or something like that. He was saying (and said) that the actions of the Fed, and the govt. are tantamount to socialism. The government is not, and never should (and I don't think ever has) be buying up stock on the open market. That's absurd. And, it artifically creates an illusion of safety.

Why do I say that? Think about this, a couple of months ago when the Bear Stearns debacle happened a ton of analysts said you should buy LEH stock. The rationale? That the FED had put a "FLOOR" under the stock and it couldn't possibly fall any further than the roughly $25 to $30 it was then trading at. The stock went all the way to close to $50.

This week LEH traded in the $11s (yesterday). The Fed can do anything they want, they can pump money into the economy, they can say FNM and FRE are solvent, they can make anything they want up, but in the end there is a saying, you may have heard it - Water seeks its own level.

FNM and FRE are worthless. You know what the Fed should do? They should BUY OUT FNM and FRE at $25 a share each! You want to drive the market to 15,000 in a jiff? Have the Fed do that! Then everyone who is smart and short these crappy stocks will get crushed (I'm not currently short them, but am drooling at the notion they may go higher so then I can short them! - NOT naked though! Hehe). You would then have the basic setup that the Federal govt of this country has become the world's largest investor in the US stock market.

That's almost as smart as bailing out the housing crisis by rewarding people who bought things they couldn't afford. I've used this analogy before, I lost a LOT of money in several ventures. It sucks losing hard earned money. Why doesn't the Fed bail me out of those bad investments? What's the difference? There isn't any, but this is an election year and so as I've said also before, the perfect storm is brewing and in the end its gonna unfortunately be EXTREMELY ugly.

Oh, one more idea, why doesn't the Fed just print like 10 TRILLION dollars and send every American like $100,000 check? That'd be cool, and everyone would then go out and spend and that would, I think, jumpstart the economy! Why not? They will spend that much anyway with these ridiculous things they are doing now. Might as well just give everyone a nice big fat check - ka-chingo! I'd be happy to get $100,000 check! Sweet!

I actually heard today that there are politicians talking about how they should abolish short selling! ROFLMAO! Yes, the evil short sellers! My gawd, sometimes I watch these hearings during the day and I just want to shake my TV.

Listen, you may or may not agree with what I say, that's fine either way, this is a country built on ideas. But, trust me, NONE of this problem, and I do mean NONE of it, has anything to do with "short sellers". I short sell the market SOMETIMES, and I long it SOMETIMES. That's what good traders do. If the idea is that the market needs to go up always, that's not a market, thats another handout and it'll just devalue the dollar to nothing and then it won't matter, we'll all be using a well barrow to buy a loaf of bread.

This Fed is possibly worse than the last one. And one last rant (ok, maybe two!), what's TRULY scary is that many of the ideas that booyah head is coming up with, the Fed is doing! They all watch his show and then think he knows what to do!

Oy vey. Now we go back to the uptick rule. It's unreal. You can't stop the market ultimately from falling, I'm sorry. It won't work, all it'll do is it'll hurt even more investors. It won't hurt the dreaded and evil "short sellers' it'll hurt the average investor who will have a false sense of security, only to find out that the market will fall no matter what in the end. And, that's tragic, my friends. History is and should be a good guidepost. The best way for the market to find that elusive bottom for real? Let it fall til it finds it and then we can build from there. Right now there is this insane witch hunt for who's at fault, and the TRUTH is, when you point a finger at something, THREE FINGERS point back at YOU!

WATCH GOOG, and fade the gap today!

'Nuff said.

Evil doer out,

Waxie

Buying came in...

And then it went OUT!

Man, there just ain't any real buyers here - YET. I saw some signs of it during the day Tuesday, but it quickly faded. Despite the powers that be trying to "fix" the markets, in more ways than one, the market simply couldn't sustain the more than 200 pt rally off the days lows.

INTC reported after the close and beat. The stock gapped up and then faded it. Frankly, I think its meaningless. Whatever these companies do this quarter doesn't mean a thing, they will experience a major slowdown more than likely no matter what. Tech is the best short there is, and the SHORT TECH class I am going to set a date by Thursday. I think the class will be held this weekend or Monday or Tuesday next week. OUr clients are really doing well. We've been knocking it out of the ballpark lately. We caught GOOG for nearly $19 in a couple hours today. That's a pretty nice call, ya know?

We covered LM puts plus around $15 (entry was $2s) for better than a 500% winner! Option Trader is EN FUEGO!

Let's keep playing the way we have. I repeat - if you ain't shorting the banks, you wasting your money. Yes, at some point they will get a truly meaningful bounce, but I don't think it'll last #1 and I don't think it's worth trying to pick that exact spot.

In the meantime, the AS Game kept me up, I'm beat and I'll see ya on the other side!

WAXIE

Turnaround Tuesday?

Well, the question begs "how much worse can it get for financials?"

The simple answer is MUCH. Honestly, there is some gift money out there if you're willing to be an investor on the short side more than likely. I don't think some of these stocks can possibly survive. Next 3 days are KEY (I feel like I say that every week, jeez!) because of C, MER, and GOOG earnings. There are others like IBM and INTC, but for my money GOOG is really going to be the key for techs simply because of the bubble I believe exists in the momentum names of tech. We will hope GOOG says everything is wonderful and gets us going to the upside. That'll give us some nice entries on the short side, and a potential nice trade to the longside initially to boot! I have no real feel for how GOOG is gonna play out. I do know that when we do get a trend up day soon it should be a very nice trading day.

In the meantime, I think you need to be patient if you are wanting to jump in for a long trade here. I still think there is the potential for a very serious catastrophic financial event unlike anything we've seen before (how's that for dramatic!?). But, perhaps everything will be dandy and the Fed will fix it all. NOT. The fact that the market sold off the way it did even after the Fed intervened says a lot. Yeah, we didn't go down that much, but we were down better than 200 pts from the gap up at one point during the day. There are simply no real buyers here, and other than dead cat bounces it's unlikely to change UNLESS we get the GOOGlicious #s some people expect.

There are two sectors I am targeting for near term trades to the short side. I'll talk more about this either Friday or Sunday night or whenever the TECH SHORT class goes. I'm trying to time this as best I can. Obviously last list is sick good, and hopefully we can knock 'em dead with this one! Stay tuned!

Be safe, and don't have your money in the regional banks! :)

RULE!

Waxie

FED does what we thought they would...

The Fed announced they are opening the windows to FNM and FRE today. This one was a gimme. They also announced they might buy into the companies. So, we are gapping up HUGE off this news. The news doesn't mean anything, other than a temporary relief rally in the markets, which is great. It's funny, I REALLY do hope I'm wrong about my doom and gloom scenario. Trust me, you guys and anyone we work with will make a lot more the higher we go. We make money either way, up or down, but more of you are comfortable going long than short, so its always in my best interest, and the economies, if the market goes UP, and not DOWN! But, I have to call it as I see it, and I think these bandaids just make it WORSE for investors, it gives them false hope that the daddy-Fed is going to save them. This is a total MIRROR of the markets in most Bear times, and if you look at comments and actions by the Fed from 2000 to the last bottom in 2003 you will see some very eery similarities in terms of the jargon being put forward, and the Fed's actions. The S & P are gapping up 15 points here, and the DOW over 100 points. Maybe it'll hold, this is an Options Expiration week and that often is a reversal week as funds and institutions balance out their positions. Plus, we have GOOG, MER, IBM, INTC, MSFT, C and other BIG earnings and any positive surprises very well may squeeze this market higher near term. That's why it always pays to TRADE 'em, and not marry 'em! In the end, though, the Fed can't keep doing anything other than propping the markets up and feeding false hope into a market that is on life support right now. Again, I hope I am WAY wrong, you can all say "Waxie sucks!" That'd be WONDERFUL, trust me, but I call 'em like I see 'em and I see this playing out very very poorly. BUT, we will get, at least, a nice bounce at the open MOnday! Peace out, Waxie

DO NOT READ IF YOU CAN'T HANDLE IT!

It's funny watching Booyah-head-boy on CNBC Friday saying that the selling in FNM and FRE is OVER! He said it 100 times, as though trying to convince himself it might/could be true.

FNM and FRE are DEAD. They are both worthless entities. If the FED didn't have so much riding on them they'd both be where Enron is. Frankly, the amount of fraud and abuse of power may rival that of Enron. The Fed and the powers that be are clueless. Booyah-head-boy had a MASTER PLAN that will "save the housing market and send FNM and FRE up $15!".

Yes, the Fed should take warrants in the companies. Ah-huh, and this guy has a show that people actually tune into!

Funny, and I say this knowing first hand how hard it is to call the market day to day, I don't envy that, I do it myself and no one can always be right, in fact there are times when you have to be WAY wrong. Its the nature of the beast, and you're only as good as your last call.

OK, with qualifications out of the way, let me be the first to remind anyone who cares that Booyah-head-boy is the same dude who devoted hours of air time saying that BEAR STEARNS (BSC) was an absolute steal at around $80-$90 AND that they would be BOUGHT OUT (go to Youtube and look up the clip, I believe it's on there) by someone.

Well, I must admit, he was right! BSC was bought out and taken over by someone!!!! At $2 a share, then finally $10 a share!

So, he was only $70 or $80 off the mark. FNM and FRE, frankly, are going to ZERO unless the government bails them out in a way that saves shareholders. That would possibly be the dumbest thing they have done yet. FNM and FRE are antiquated. They serve no viable purpose as a public entity, they never have. They are government backed entities, the fact that there is even talk of government entities is a socialist idea that counters the tenets of capitalism.

The reason why we have capital markets is so that the markets can trade FREELY. Some may not agree. There are a lot of reasons why people feel the government should bail out these public companies. The problem is, and this is solely my opinion, that the government is setting up a very dramatic unraveling of the ENTIRE banking system in this country. There, I said it. I believe there is a better than 60 to 70% change (I'm being generous) that the ENTIRE US BANKING system goes CAPUT within the next 12 to 18 months.

Now, I know I will get a bunch of emails saying that I'm nuts, that that could never happen, that how dare I be so Un-American! Well, I'm as blessed and happy about living in their wonderful country as anyone, but I have to speak what I believe to be true. I think there will be a "run" on the US banking system and it will shut the banks - ALL OF THEM - down for a short period until things get sorted out.

I would rather own just about any other currency right now than the US Dollar. That's a fact. the US Dollar can't help but go down and much of that has to do with Fed policy. It's a policy doomed to fail. You simply can not put bandaids on when your arm is severed. It won't work.

I don't know, I'm just a dude who was homeless and once thought that a leftover happy meal from a garbage can was a delicacy, but I saw this coming. A lot of smarter people than me saw this coming, yet no one did a thing about it. And now? Now a lot of the same people see what I see and yet again, no one is doing anything about it. We hear talk of another $50 BIL in "economic stimulus". Are you kidding me? Seriously, are they that dumb? The first $150 BIL didn't work worth anything, why would you keep doing what doesn't work? They first one was just a political ploy, the second will have even less/worse an effect. They could throw a TRILLION dollars at the problem, it will just make it worse.

Printing money just makes your money worth-LESS. It doesn't help anything, it just helps create the hyper inflation we are building toward.

Yes, I am the grim reaper, I know, and as I keep saying - I really do hope I am wrong. Unfortunately I don't think I am. Until something different is done to FIX the system, the system will keep chugging along with it's head in the sand until someone comes along and buries it. That's what is setting up.

The stock market? The stock market is going down folks, WAY WAY WAY down. The DOW should be MAXIMUM 7000s in a couple of years (or much sooner), the Nasdaq should be below 1200 in same time frame (I love the Nasdaq short longer term, LOVE).

Unfortunately I don't know how to fix anything, all I can do is watch and wonder and listen to these dudes and dudesses in government say the same thing every day, and then at some point come back and say something countering what they were saying like it was nothing.

I watched the congressional hearings on Friday. Or whatever that nonsense was. If you saw it you saw some congresswoman ask this question, and I paraphrase "who is going to reap the PROFITS on the mortgages from the COuntry Wide Financial (CFC) deal?"

I mean, I nearly puked from laughter. The profits? Does anyone think that BAC wants that deal to go through now? Thy would back out in ten seconds if they could. That deal isn't going to have any profits. BAC is one of the best shorts out there simply becuase of that purcahse. CFC has so many bad debts from what I see that there is the possibility that that deal could do severe damage to BAC itself.

We are still a country in denial. Until that denial is punctured and reality sets in we can't possibly have a true bottom from which to build upon for more than trading dead cat rallies.

I'm sorry, I prefaced this by warning you not to read this if you didn't want the truth, at least according to me. It's funny, I post on several other messages boards on the internet. I posted something early last week about how FNM was going below $10, or lower, when it was north of $15. There were people writing saying I'm crazy, that it can't happen and that FNM was a great buy.

I'm not always right, in fact as a trader I am OFTEN wrong. I say it all the time, you don't need to be right all the time, just more often than not. But anyone saying that the financials are a good buy here is off their rocker. If C isn't $5 or less this time next year I will enter the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest and beat Joey Chestnut!

You may not think that's a big deal, but I haven't had a hot dog in literally 25 years, I hate Hot Dogs, they disgust me. I read what was in them as a teenager and I swore off them forever.

There hasn't been a capitulation. For those of you who were around the markets in 2000 to 2003 during the decline from 12,000s to 6000s on the DOW than you will remember EVERYONE called a bottom every week. All we heard about was how much money was on the sidelines and how this was a great buying opportunity.

I think TECH is the next to get CRUSHED. I think the AGs are sitting ducks and I think that eventually EVERYTHING in sight is going on a one way ticket to 50% off sticker prices.

We are in the EARLY stages of a long term BEAR MARKET. That means that you will basically be able to throw darts at the market to the short side and get it right. I have to keep saying it, I think TECH is VASTLY overpriced. People say "oh, but people will still buy I-Phones" . Of course they will, no one said Apple is going out of business, but their stock price is VASTLY overpriced. And, in the end, the BEAR gets ya! That's REALITY, if you can take it! Happy trading this week. We may get a bounce shortly, but it won't last that long until we get a REAL capitulatory move. I think S & P 1200 - 1210 is a given here, and DOW 10,500 area looks like a sure thing. We'll see soon enough! See ya on the other side, WAXIE P.S. I'm doing another SHORT SPECIAL class giving the TOP 10 TECHS to short NOW in the next 2 weeks, if you are interested email me at waxie@trendfund.com and/or look for the info on the site. Price will be about $129 and I'll give some option plays with the stocks as well. The last list has obviously ROCKED! I think this one will rock even better because these stocks are so VASTLY overpriced! Stay tuned!

Rally time....?

OK, so FNM and FRE are heading to my target of under $1 in a hurry. LEH is in trouble, and oil ran up over $5!

BUT, the market rallied a wee bit nonetheless. I said it the other day, this is make or break time here. I think we should go a LOT lower near term, BUT watch GOOG here. They have earnings next week on the 17th and the stock could get a nice boost into it just based on them going up like 90 points after last quarters earning.

I'm not gonna write much here, I think the rally we got today and we might get Friday are based on very low volume and I think until we get a REAL washout day with SOME capitulatory action it's going to be very hard for us to get more than these dead cat type bounces.


Just stay limber and stay CASH rich. There is no reason to get into the market here other than for a trade, so heed that, or peril awaits!

See ya manana! Good trading!

WAXIE

NICE RALLY, FOLKS!

WOW, did you see that TWO DAY RALLY WE HAD!!!!?

No, neither did I! That's cause it didn't exist!

All that one day rally did was give shorts a better entry and now TECH is rolling over. I said it before and I'll say it again, AAPL, RIMM, GRMN, GOOG, etc. all going WAY WAY DOWN ultimately, timing is everything so we'll see when. I think AAPL may be shot here, but again let's see what shakes. THis is do or die near term. Either we retest and hold the recent lows, or if ER and ES bust below and can't bounce we should see 500s on the ER and 1100s on the S & P shortly. Stay tuned!

I do want to note that I gave you guys 1 stock yesterday LONG as a laggard - MELI. DId ya notice that in spite of the massive selloff MELI was up over $4! That's better than 15% in a day!

Who is your daddy?

FYI - I made a mistake, I meant 1300 last night on S & P, not 1400s. I don't think we see 1400s on S & P for a VERY long time, sorry to say. Folks, you must trade this market! If you are long you are WRONG and you will remain WRONG other than a dead cat bounce or two from here for a while. YES, we may get a decent bounce if we hold the lows, but that's all its gonna be. We need to find a TRUE solid base and I for one don't believe that's anywhere to be found until S & P 1000 or LOWER. S0, you want to stick in longs, be my guest but don't cry to me when you are dead broke! See ya in the am! FNM and FRE headed to my under $1 final targets. All these companies, and the Fed are just giving mixed messages. I believe the Fed is trying to make sure there is not mass panic in the markets BUT they want the market to go LOWER. Yes, I said it, call me nuts, won't be the first time or first ones, but I think the reason why yesterday you had Paulson saying "the housing market is stabilizing" and today other Fed speak countering that is very purposeful. The purpose? To make sure that the market's crashing doesn't happen all at once. They know its going to crash, they just don't want panic. Conspiracy? Nope, the Fed isn't in charge of the stock market's health, its in charge of the economies health. FNM and FRE can be .10 cents and still serve their purpose. The Fed proved with BSC that they don't care one bit about shareholders, nor should they. SO, you think we are at a bottom? GOod luck, Chuck, you will regret it. SELL YOUR STOCKS and start trading! Self serving? PErhaps, I want you all as clients for sure, but for a myriad of reasons. I want you all to start making money and not donating it to the short fund! See ya on the other side, WAXIE

BOUNCEY POO...

Well, we got the Turnaround Tuesday we thought we'd get! Ka-chingo!
Nice overnight gap down, then bounce, then drift, then BAMM! Some BS news from the BS Fed and wha-la - instant rally!

That's what you call a massively oversold rally! So, where to now? Well, hopefully we get a few more days of a rally. I missed one trade, I think someone pointed it out to me but I just plain missed it. AAPL into the news Friday of the new I Phone. That thing almost always rallies. My bias, which was right, kept me from calling AAPL long, but obviously that's been a nice trade into the news Friday. Usually that stock will sell the news, so it'll be interesting to see if AAPL sells off after Friday or Monday.

SO, ok, now back to the bounce notion and how long it'll possibly last. I think we have a shot to get a move to 700ish on the ER and potentially 1400 on the S & P. I don't think we can go much more than that. What you notice here is classic Window Dressing anti-trend. Oil tanking, commodities tanking, those stocks tanking and the beaten down sectors rocking. Usually this type of rally will last a few days to a week overall, with pullbacks buyable for that time period.

I do not see the financials getting very far here. I would love for some of these to get a 10% bounce. Get me to $40 on MER and I'll show you a really nice short entry. LM which has been STELLAR for us at $42 area would be very very nice to get a new short on. In this type of market we look to trade bounces to the long side and then look to short at resistence points. That gives us a very nice risk/reward situation, one that is easy to trade and manage as long as you are willing to set your stops.

I was asking on the blog yesterday about bounces and investing. Please note that I can't give individual advice to anyone, I'm not licensed or registered. I will say that me personally, I would NOT be investing in this market. I continue to believe that this market is VASTLY overvauled and these bounces are simply better short entries.

If you want to invest, after days like today just buy the SKF long (I would give it a little more room, perhaps it'll fall to $130 area which would be an ideal entry to the long side).

The ridiculous thing about the markets is, and why we can have a HUGE edge if we are patient is that they usually follow very clear patterns. Look at FNM and FRE today. If you've followed the markets lately you will know that the Fed has said similar things and sparked massive squeezes in MBI, ABK, WM, C and others over and over again. Yet, these stocks all have CRACKED HARD once everyone realizes that just because the Fed says some nonsense about how important FNM and FRE are, the Fed doesn't give a rat's butt about SHAREHOLDERS or the price of the stock. Just look at charts of MBI and ABK and compare them to the charts of FNM and FRE and you'll see a very real correlation. THese stocks are so so broken that they are doomed. Does that mean that FNM and FRE are going to go bankrupt? No, the Fed will bail them out more than likely, if they can, but do you think the Fed cares if FNM trades at $25 or $2.50? They don't, nor should they. FNM and FRE were set up to provide liquidity and stability to the markets they serve. TO use them as investment vehicles is not only foolish, but irrational. They should trade at roughly 5 to 10 X"s earnings AT MOST. When do you think FNM is going to earn enough to justify trading at the $18ish it closed today at? Not for a LONG while, if ever again.

Please remember ABK and MBI, part of being sucessful in the markets, or any business is to learn from history. These stocks kept getting propped up FALSELY and then they would just roll over again. The only ones making money on them? SHorts and TRADERS.

I do not believe rallies like today, other than they are a dead cat short covering. The media LOVES to say "the bottom". THe only thing that has a bottom here is my behind, which with my two a day workouts is getting a bit smaller. I know, TMI< but hey what can I do, you think it's easy to write every day and tell it like it is? I gotta put a little BUT(T) into it. Why? Cause everything AFTER BUT(T) is BS!

Or, so I'm told!

Let's see what shakes, but I suspect this bounce is fairly short lived. What I would look at here now is LAGGARDS. I have some on my list to call for members that I Think can get REALLY nice bounces short term. The usual trend on bounces like this is that they stall out and trade sideways before retreating and while trading sideways the stocks that lagged the initial move tend to get nice big fat moves. Watch stocks like MELI and some of the small cap solar stocks for that type of action.

'Nuff said! See ya in the am!

RULE!

Waxie

WOWSA...

How bad are these financials? Jeez, louise! Well, don't say I didn't warn ya! Though, I must admit that I did think we'd at least get a bounce in them to start the new quarter. And, they did try, but they are just DEATH here. I still think they have to bounce, I mean they can't all go to zero,,,can they? Hehe!

FNM, FRE my two favorite financial shorts just CRUSHED! The people who played our short list are ROCKING to say the least. I mean ROCKING ROCKING ROCKING! As I write this S & P futures are down over 8 points again! This market is really in trouble folks. I think a gap down TODAY should get us some VERY nice bounce candidates. We tried to bounce late day Monday and I am thinking we get a dead cat short covering rally here today that could be nice. We'll see. A real nice capitulation would be super nice to wash us out and let us at least get some breathing room. You know what's really scary? I post on other sites my blog thread at times and I got booted from one the other day. Why? Because they said I was too NEGATIVE. Oy vey! That's why, my good friends, that investors are FOOLS. I'm sorry, I hate to grossly generalize, but why in the world wouldn't you want to hear the negative, even if you disagreed? It makes no sense, other than sticking your head in the sand and praying. And, while I believe in the spiritual power of prayer in many instances, I find it hard to imagine that anyone's idea of G-D would spend a lot of energy attending to prayer for stocks to go up! Ya know? Seems there are a few other more important things in the world to deal with then whether or not Citibank's stock has reached a bottom! It's really a shame, the US stock market is going to CRASH. I'm sorry, folks. I call it as I see it. It's going to be so bad that people are going to feel as though its the end of the world financially. As always, I preface it by saying I hope I am wrong, I truly do, but so far those of you who have been here listening to me/us at Trendfund.com prognosticate know that we/I have been DEAD ON, and that's no exageration or tooting of my own horn. I would rather be wrong and have people say I suck, its better for everyone if the market rallies, but this market is SHOT. Oh, we will bounce HEAVY shortly, perhaps very shortly, but the overall trend of this market is decidedly LOWER and MUCH MUCH lower in the end. Now, you can choose to heed that warning, as I have said again and again, or you can stick your head in the sand and say "he's just so negative! Why doesn't he do some Yoga!" Well, I do do Yoga, and I am VERY positive about most things in life, life is beautiful and wonderful and glorious. It's the stock market that sucks, dudes and dudesses, it's the stock market that sucks. Let's see what shakes here. If you are short, make sure your stops are set so when we do get a squeeze you lock in the gains and can reverse. Remember that Bear market bounces can be AWESOME to trade. Yes, we are and have been in a Bear Market for a while now. ANd, yes, we are and have been in a RECESSION for a long while now and will remain in one for at least 2 to 4 years, potentially 5 to 7 years. Sorry, I know, I am Mr.Negative. Perrhaps when we get a FED that actually knows what it's doing we can turn things around faster. Until then it's scary. And, for those that think that Oil prices are the root of all evil. As I've been saying and said on National TV, oil has virtually NOTHING to do with the stock market. Oil was down HUGE today and the market couldn't get out of it's own way. Amateurs point to oil as a cure all or damage all end all. It's simply not the case and hasn't been for YEARS. Reality is reality, everything else is just hope and in the stock market HOPE is a four letter word. Keep the faith, and trade 'em, don't marry 'em! WAXIE

WINDOW WINDOW ON THE WALL, WHO HAS FALLEN ON THE FLOOR?

OK, so you can all see the power of Window Dressing now, right? I mean, it's no coincidence that all the stock (most) that were the hottest last quarter have cracked big time the 1st week of the new quarter. All you have to do is look at charts on X, POT, ENER, GDP, etc. etc. etc. and it's easy to see. And, while they haven't exactly lit the world on fire, the financial stocks have held up better than those.

So, where from here? Well, it'll be interesting. The financials should get a further bounce, but obviously that's a tough long to take and hold unless you have the strongest of stomachs. I suspect we get a REALLY nice bounce on the Solars and perhaps the Metals this week at some point. I have to check my earnings calander but I like GDP, and ENER still higher unless we tank harder overall. My suspicion is that we get a bounce first. WE just tested and breached the March lows on everything other than the Russell (how bout our Option Play of the Week Puts on that index! INSANE! Like a triple plus in a week! No biggie, only a 40 point drop for us! Ka-chingo!).

There's a TON of money to be made here folks, if you are just reading I suggest you get on board the Express train from Trendfund.com! Sign up for the Ninja service, or Swing Trader or Option Trader services, do yourself a HUGE favor! Now is not the time to sit back and complain, YOU have to get in the game!

In the meantime, the March lows either hold here or we'll see 10,500 area on the DOW in a jiff. IF we break below the March lows and can't reclaim them I would be looking to stay short and ride it down a bit. That would provide a nice risk/reward situation. But, like I said, I can see us bouncing a bit here before rolling back over. I still say we have to get much lower prices, but nothing goes in a straight line and we're traders so we play it both ways.

You saw the action in LEH last week, I just saw headlines today crossing Bloomberg that UBS says they don't need any more money and may even show a profit this quarter. That's why I think the financials should still get a hefty multi day bounce if no bad news comes early this week. If you want to play that then look at the indexes that cover them, BKX and the SKF ETF, or UGY I believe.

OK, more later, hope you are all enjoying your 4th of July weekend! I'll be posting all this week again, I hope, so try not to miss me too much!!!

And, remember - trade 'em, don't marry 'em!

My mantra!

RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Ought O Spagetti O'sssssss!

Look, folks. I don't want to say I've told you so. I've warned you, I've begged you - PLEASE SELL YOUR STOCKS!!! PLEASE GET OUT!!! Investors are going to get MURDERED in this market. If you are not heeding it, which is your perogative, then may your financials rest in peace. The DOW will be UNDER 8000, and the Nasdaq will be under 1500 in a land not so far away. In fact, the DOW could see 5000s and the Nasdaq could see under 1000. You need to wake up and smell REALITY. Stop throwing your hard earned money away! Just stop! Sell now and regroup. There are other ways to make big returns in the market. You can try trading with us. You can try Forex, you can try shorting every bounce here. You can try hedging your investments at least to protect yourself! We can teach you all that and more. What we can't teach you is how to not lose money as an investor because if I'm right then this is going to get VERY VERY bloody. VERY. MUCH worse than 2000 to 2003. I expect several LARGE banks to go under. I expect MANY regionals to go under. And, I expect GOOG to see $100s by the time this is over with. Many chided me when I said on National TV and National Radio and in print that oil would be $100 and then $150 that I was crazy, that I was dumb, that I didn't know what I was talking about. The clips, some of them, are on the site in our media center at www.trendfund.com go see for yourself. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I will be. You want an investment? SKF. Buy that and hold it for a year, I think you'll be quite happy. It should be north of $250. It's the inverse on the financial sector, so its a good way to play that sector short, by buying SKF long. OK, now you want to hear the crazy part of todays blog? I think we will get a HUGE bounce shortly. I'm not calling it here, sorry. My clients pay too much money, so you'll have to join some service to hear it. Hey, maybe it'll be wrong, but I have a sneaky suspicion it won't be. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Let me tell you something, over the years my experience is that when GS (Goldman) makes a call like they made today on C, adding it to their conviction sell list (where were they when it was $30s and I said it would be under $10?) there is usually an alterior motive. I have a sneaky suspicion of what that might be, and I plan on playing it pretty strongly soon. If we gap up on no news tomorrow, which we're up on the futures now, it's a pretty safe short, folks. I doubt we're going very far on a Friday after a move like we had today. Better chance we get a further extension down then a huge rally/bounce. But, we'll see. Tiny likes a Bob and Weave day and I agree. I think we fade the intial move, then try to fade it again the other way, and then fade that again. But, if we do get a trend day on no news you'd have to say better shot its down then up, right? Monday we are doing our SMALL CAP MONSTER class. We have 3 new Small Cap Monsters ready to roll out. I think you all should attend the class. I'll post the info here tomorrow, please sign up and get some real solid, in my opinion and though there are no guarantees, some really solid small cap plays! Our 1st Two Small Cap monsters are holding strong and moving higher even in this insane market! Just remember, when the DOW is sitting under 10,000 this year and if you keep investing, just remember who told ya to GET THE FREAK OUT NOW! The worst is yet to come and investors need to wake up and smell the proverbial roses, the coffee pot is boiled over, babies. This sucker is OVERDONE and OVERDUE. Even as I write this the Dow futures are up over 20 pts! Why? Investors die hard, but in this market they will die, I believe. Don't hate me cause I speak the truth, embrace it and learn to earn! Email me if you want to sign up for a service and I'm happy to help you do so. waxie@trendfund.com See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness

FED...UP...

OK, so from a trading perspective Wednesday was TEXTBOOK! One of our finer trends and one highlighted on several of our DVDs (email me if you want a list - waxie@trendfund.com). is to fade the FOMC. Not only that, to fade it and refade it. Knock on wood, this trend has KICKED BUTT every time since I can remember. Market got a HUGE spike off the FOMC and then sold off and then rallied again, and then sold off again into ORCL and RIMM earnings, which we said would be KEY. MON earnings were just as key, and that sector initially sold off DRAMATICALLY. So far RIMM is holding the same. RIMM is down nearly $10 afterhours as I write this. Their EPS # and guide was HORRIBLE, but their revenues and guidance on that level were both above consensus. ORCL sold off as well. Tomorrow is either going to mark some type of trading bottom, or we are tank city. We'll see soon enough.

In the meantime, I'm going to probably be off for a few days. I'll try to post some, but I'm moving and won't be looking much while transitioning to the new place and setting my "stuff" up.

Watch the ER (Russell) here. I have a feeling TECH is next to get cracked in this market. The notion is gonna start to set in that - duh - tech is NOT a safe haven for anyone during an economic meltdown. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. These stocks are mostly going to get crushed! ER target remains 300s and Nasdaq target remains a retest of 2003 lows at 1100s. A NEW Grinch list is about to come out, stay tuned!

In the meantime, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS is due out next week. We are doing a class to introduce the service and 3 Small Cap ENERGY names we feel are doubles to ten baggers over the next year. So far our two picks from the 1st newslettere are INSANE! SATC has been a double basically and DEPO is cruising as well! So, we're 2 for 2 and moving forward.

Hold the market fort down for me!

Oh, one more brief item. I got an email disagreeing with my take on the oil and energy crisis. Specifically they have an issue with my idea of adding a huge tax to gas and making it so high people stop consuming, or at least dramatically cut back, which I believe would lead to lower oil prices. They hated my idea. That's totally cool. Part of the fun of writing a blog is hearing what YOU guys think and feel and your wins and even your losses. (How about our GS short call with 40 minutes left in the day that netted at least $2!)

My point is, this country and free speech go hand and hand. It sucks when anyone tries to shut someone else off from having a thought or opinion. Having said that, no bashing, please. This is a blog that hopefully gets people thinking and reacting to the stock market and other things as well. You hear mine and if you disagree I respect your opinion, even if I don't agree. I'll respect yours same!

RULE and be careful folks, financials looking beat to death again.

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

*If you are interested in the Small Cap Monsters newsletter, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com

RULE!

Please please please, dear Bernanke, please save usssssss!

Ah, ya, ok, the Fed has done such a wonderful job. We should have known this dude was clearly clueless when he first started and he immediately leaked policy to Maria on CNBC at a party while apparently having a bit too many to drink! Anyone else remember that?

I have to say, the Fed is so clueless at this point I'm going to have a hard time bashing them anymore, because what do you say that hasn't been said?

Tiny got a call today from an old client who said that, and I paraphrase - "you're crazy whacky Waxie boss called oil to $150 4 years ago! I can't believe it!" Wanna know what? I can't believe it either, not because I'm right, but only beccause this could have been avoided. Now? I'm sorry, but my new target on oil is $250+. Consumption levels are going to continue to CLIMB and there's no alternative online, or that will be online at this point for at least 15 - 20 years that is going to really make a dent. Do you realize that our major advance over the last 20 years to find an alternative to oil is Ethanol? I mean, it's ridiculous. And, here's the rub, the oil companies have lobbied to keep things status quo for all this time, but the backlash, they are seeing, is tremendous. As a trader I say "Greed = death". I think the same holds true in business as well often times. I'm a capitalist. I believe that hard work should be paid well. I like to make as much money as the next guy, but there comes a time when you are gouging your clientele so badly that they turn on you. Everything is risk vs. reward. Oil has become so ridiculous, it's like crack cocaine for the masses. It's ironic, I have not agreed with a lot of Bloomberg's policies. I think he over incentivized landlords and builders to create jobs, which is good in specific instances, to the point where the overbuilding has contributed to the real estate issues NYC is most definately going to face moving forward. He also didn't think ahead in terms of creating schools for all the families to attend, but it's easy to be a back seat driver. Bloomberg is one of the few politicians who has now come out and said what I've been saying - RAISE the gas/oil taxes LARGE! Most everyone else is asking for taxes to be lowered to get the price temporarily and artificially down. That can't possibly be anything but a political vote grabbing ploy. Raise it $5 a gallon. Raise it $10 a gallon in TAX alone. Make gas $10 - $15, or even $20 a gallon and use the tax monies to subsidize people who need the gas to get to work, or who qualify salary wise. I know I've said it, it just drives me nuts. Look, I'll be one of the first to start taking public transportation ALL the time. I'd keep a car but I would RARELY use it. You do that, you will cut consumption by 25 - 30% I believe. If the oil cartel, even temporarily, finds they have too much oil and no less people are paying for it, they will 100% figure out ways to lower the prices. It gives us leverage. Right now we have ZERO leverage. Less than zero!

Tomorrow is FOMC day. This one is a total non event. The market today traded HORRIBLY! I have to admit, it was a tough day to trade. We died and then bounced heavy (which we called and caught) but then the death into the close definately took me by surprise. I didn't think we would zoom, but I thought we would at least trade sideways. We closed near the lows all around. The tech sector tanked heavy. MON, which reports in the am, sold off right into the close. Unless they blow out, they should trade down pretty steeply. I don't own it either way, but that group does look a tad heavy already, MON better blow out big, or watch out below on all those AG stocks! The financials tried to bounce but couldnt' sustain it. Remember, into the end of the quarter the rich get richer stock performance wise, and the poor get poorer! So, we'll see what MON does and then after the close we have RIMM reporting and that is going to be a HUGE market for techs to measure up to. This market looks ready to roll over and die. That would be good for it, to really capitulate. It may very well happen tomorrow if the Fed doesn't say anything helpful. Remember not to get in front of a bullish bus, or a bearish knife! Go with the flow, not against it! We'll have our longside trade shortly - stay tuned!

We're doing our Small Cap Monster class next Monday, hopefully I'll see ya all there! I'll post info ASAP!

RULE!

Waxie

Get up, stand up, stand up for your rights!

Man, I love Bob Marley.

OK, so the market did exactly what the Window Dressing trend dicates it should do the last week of a quarter - the HOT got HOTTER and the COLD got COLDER!

This is setting up VERY NICELY for our next big winner(s)! And, of course our current TOP PICKS and OPTION PLAYS are simply DELIROUSLY ROCKING!

ENER, GDP, ICO, etc, etc. How sick are they? WOWSA!

Plus, our puts on WFMI and the financials (LM) are delicious and gonna get more so! There is NO BOTTOM to this group until...we say so! :)

This weekend I saw a movie that I swear was commissioned by the MTA or YOUR local public transit authority. What movie? THE HAPPENING!

I actually didn't think it was as dreadful as most critics. It was predictable and fairly inocuous, but harmless. What it really is is a PSA (Public service announcement) for public transportation. STAY AWAY FROM THE GRASS! Yes, stay away from the grass and go under ground...and take the subway!

Or bus, I guess.

Anyhow, this market is UGLY. I mean its REALLY ugly. Did I say it was really ugly? It's ugly. I think MER is almost a sure thing to go under $30 into earnings. Who in their right mind is going to buy MER here now? LEH continues its descent to under $10 or worse final destination = zero and in Bear Stearns fiery pit of hell. (no offense to anyone).

I just do not see these things getting any significant bounce that can last until a bunch of them fail. I have a ton on my list of banks that are going to go UNDER. SOV, WM, FED, COF all potentially can fail in my opinion. There are a lot more that could. C has SERIOUS issues, but the Fed would probably bail them out as that would sink the entire country potentially. This whole sector is SHOT and you need to avoid it at ANY cost, other than maybe for a trade when the time is right.

Stick with the hot this week and you should be fine.It's kinda nice trading cause you can short the financials as a hedge against the ENER and GDP's of the world that we like and get winners BOTH ways! That's the way, ah huh, ah huh, we like it, ah huh ah huh!

Oil went higher after the Saudi meeting. Duhhhhhh. Dudes and dudesses, does anyone think that these countries are concerned about lowering the price of oil? Hehe, that's funny. I mean, that's like saying that you want to give money away. Right now these countries rule the world. We can pretend we do, or Europe, but it's an illusion. If we did we'd be able to tell these countries to lower the price and open the valves up full throttle.

The biggest problem, and I have said it again and again, is that there was no one preparing for what really was inevitable. That's not hindsight, oil has risen precipitously for many many years. Yes, its risen a lot faster the last 2 years, but it's risen steadily over the years. Why didn't anyone do anything? Again, this is our leaders fault. It's very disturbing to me that we continue to do things AFTER the fact, not before. In July's Trend Profit Report newsletter (email me if you want to subscribe - waxie@trendfund.com). I rant in depth about this issue. I'll publish the article here on the blog in the next few days for ya if ya want, but I just don't get it. NONE of this should be a surprise and yet here we are. And now they want to do things? It's going to take a MINIMUM of 10 years to really make headway. I've believed in the peak oil theory for years. I think we can only produce so much and that until there is a movement to stop certain luxury practices, forget it. We need to stop the things we've been doing, and do something different! Ever hear the saying - "If you do the same things, you get the same results." Or, "Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results". Either one is apropo. And, either one leads us to a very bad ending to our economic woes, our financial institutions and for the rising cost of oil and commodities. You better get used to it, withing 5 years it will cost you north of $10 a gallon of gas. Sorry, folks, thats reality. I don't sugarcoat, that's not what I get paid for. I tell it like I see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but oil isn't going to pull back meaningfully for a long while. It can pull back to retest $100 at some point MAYBE, but would you rather own oil futures, or the US Dollar? Hmmmm. Give me the oil, you can keep the dollar!

See ya on the other side, FOMC meeting tomorrow is a non-event, though we should be able to trade it as always and ROCK THE MARKETS with Ka-chingos!

RULE!

Waxie

Are you feeling LUCKY, my friend?

This is the time to buckle up and get ready for a BIG show! This coming week is the last week (it ends June 30th actually) of the 2nd quarter. WINDOW DRESSING is one of the best and most consistent trends we have tracked over the last 15 or so years. Our lists have worked something like 21 out of the last 24 quarters. No reason to think this quarter will be a bummer, but ya never know!

We just wrapped up another seminar, was great to meet a bunch of hard working, guns a blazing traders and soon to be traders! Thanks for all who attended! We're getting an office set up shortly so that we have a tad more control over internet connections and we can host them more often. It's always phenomenal to meet people who have similar interests, but from literally around the world. Anntoinette came all the way from France, and we had a few people from other parts of the world. Downright amazing that a dude like me who used to live off of food in a garbage bin could attract people globally! VEry cool life is, indeed!

We're rolling FOREX out in the next two weeks, I know a TON of you guys have been patiently waiting, but we're finally at the precipice and ready to ROCK the currency markets! I had to finish my latest book for St.Martin's PRess (Rule your Freakin' Retirement) due out early 2009 so that's taken a ton of time to get it right (book is AWESOME, if I may say so myself!) and had my film premier (Crazy for Love) which is now at everyone's local Blockbuster. It's been a very busy few months.

I have a SUPER DUPER trade upcoming, folks. I suggest you all get on board the Waxie Express or you might miss what could be the trade of the year. Ya never know, but I think it's gonna be a doosey in the next 2 to 3 weeks. If you have ever thought of signing up for our Ninja or Black Belt services (www.trendfund.com) I suggest you do so NOW cause while there's no guarantees, I have a lot of conviction about a call I'm about to make and if I'm right its gonna lead to some HUGE HUGE HUGE gains in a very short time frame.

In the meantime, this week we have two major milestones that will dictate action in several sectors;

MON earnings
RIMM earnings

Both come on the 25th I believe. And, both will have huge implications on TECH and AGs and the overall market. We also are now about to test KEY markers in the market. Either we will hold the March lows on the DOW and S & P or we will crash and burn to the 10,000s in a jiff very shortly. We shall see, but these two earnings reports and the markets reaction to them is going to be KEY to which way we shake out. What's interesting is the divergence we have up here. The tech heavy Nasdaq is really showing crazy relative strength. Even though the Nasdaq has taken a beating with the DOW it's still well above (about 8%) the March lows, while the DOW is barely so. There is this perception that tech is somewhat immune to the economic meltdown we're having (yes, it is a meltdown folks, let's not sugar coat it). I don't think that will last. My targets on the ER (Russell) are still longer term in the 300s, and a retest of the 2003 Nasdaq lows (1100 - 1200s), which is 50% lower from here. But, of course, we shall see what we shall see and as always, when I'm bearish I really do hope I'm wrong for a lot of reasons!

Also this week we have another FOMC meeting. While the meeting is somewhat of a non-event, it'll be tradeable as always. The Fed isn't going to cut anymore and should hint (at least) at some raising later this year, if not sooner. The problem is, the Fed is now caught in a very uncomfortable position. They have to worry about rapidly rising inflation (hyper soon unfortunately) and the fact that consumers can't borrow due to tighter restrictions due to the housing and credit woes. I've been saying this has created an economic "perfect storm" potential and real disaster threat. The Fed has played it both ways and as we said as teenagers when you play it both ways, you usually LOSE both ways and forfeit in ALL!

Let's hope I'm wrong, but I'm usually not, dudes and dudesses. ANY rally here is to be sold into. We may hold the March lows for now, but very small shot we hold it for very long. We'll see soon enough!

And, fyi, for all my doom and gloom, I'm about to make a BULLISH call, so get your butt signed up so you can learn to EARN and learn how to protect yourself from any downturns AND profit from it ALL!

RULE!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

www.trendfund.com

Options Expiration

Beat tonight so will keep it brief. Market got a chincy bounce after C announced more bad reality check news for banks. There are going to be some failures shortly in regional banks, its inevitable. Friday is the day to watch Pin Action on the markets in terms of strike prices for options expiration. Thursday we used that to play a Bull Spread on RIMM that netted 20% intraday. We'll be making more of these types of calls moving forward when applicable. I think we'll chop around today(Friday) and next week is going to be VERY key. RIMM reports earnings and that report will dicate the action in AAPL, GOOG and other momentum tech stocks.

Let's see what shakes out Friday. The good thing about option expiration is that it usually leaves us mostly in cash, so we start fresh Monday!!! See ya there!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

We are DONE...

This blog post is gonna act as my warning to investors. I'll preface this by saying that I am not always correct. Having said that, most of my longer term market predictions have been dead on.

I am warning all investors to GET OUT of this stock market before it's too late!

Yes, I am serious. We are going to be under 10,000 and potentially a LOT lower in the next few months. Suffice to say I hope I'm wrong, but I do not think I will be. In all my years trading I have never seen so many options that are heavily traded on the financials be RIGHT. There is going to be some UGLY stuff coming down the pike, in my opinion, and no sector is going to be spared. This market feels so heavy its being held up by the skin of its finger nails.

Again, I could be wrong, and if so you can jump on me later and say I suck, that's cool, but I am very confident in this call. This market is going to get slammed with some very very bad news and it's going to get SLAMMED. And, the notion that the AGs or Tech or Solar stocks are safe havens is a JOKE. Is it the end of the world? Nope. But for most investors it doesn't have to be the end of the world for them to get creamed and suffer horribly. Do not be one of those people. The "big" event has not happened yet, but it will over the coming months and if you are an investor here you are going to get SMOKED.

Can I be any clearer? GET OUT and STAY OUT until there is blood in the streets. You've been warned!

So, what can you do? Buy some index puts to hedge your long side positions, or sell calls against your positions, or simply short the financials and some techs. We did a class and I gave some top picks not long ago. You can buy SKF to play the financials short with an ETF, and you can buy TWM to play the Russell short (tech). I would buy the Sept. or Oct. calls on those two ETFs if you agree with this idea. Keep in mind that usually things don't go in a straight line and week after next we may get a nice bounce in the financials, but I doubt it lasts more than a week before turning down again.

We shall see, but you have, indeed, been warned!

TRADE 'EM, don't own 'em! And, if you are into owning this market, please set stops to prevent a massive meltdown. This market feels a LOT heavier than even 2000 to 2003. That's how bad this market feels right now. Contrarian? Nah, I really doubt it. We shall see soon enough, market closed right near 12,000 on DOW as I said we might this week. It'll be interesting to see what they do the rest of the week. If we can't hold 12,000 then the March lows are going to be tested rather quickly!

Again, hope I'm wrong, it doesn't help our biz for the market to die that hard, but I have to call it as I see it and thats how I see it pretty freakin' strongly!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

WORD WORLD...

For all you parents of your children, the BEST show on TV for kids is WORD WORLD.

If you know the show, you know that to be true, if you don't, go here to check it out;

www.wordworld.com

A HUGE shout out to my main man Don who started with a dream and some VC money from yours truly and has turned it into a BEAST! We just won an EMMY yesterday! Wowsa!

Pretty freakin' amazing what a dream, a good idea, some seed money and a lot of hard work will do! People create their own miracles, just as we try to help people create their's!

Word World is doing a raise right now, if anyone is accredited and interested in seeing a PPM, subject to atty approval, send me an email; waxie@trendfund.com it's a wonderful show and company and with Planet Penguin selling to Disney for over $350 MIL, ya never know!

*If you have any interest, we may be starting a small VC fund for clients as well, so email any interest on that as well.

I have known Don since we were kids and we both always thought we'd hit a couple home runs, it's nice to see that we still have a little bit of magic between us!

Most importantly, the show is educational. My girls love it, so make sure you tune in, it's on PBS nation wide!

RULE the words, baby, rule the words!

Michael "Waxie"

Tuesday Tuesday...

Is that a song? Nah, don't think so! The market did what we thought it might and sold the news on GS. After a pretty large gap up by GS, it finished the day WELL into the red, despite upgrades all around. AGs continue their parabolic run to new heights and the solars would have crushed it had there not been late day news that dragged down the sector. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out tomorrow with the solars, they should set up for a very nice trade. I'd watch 10 am rule for entries either way. Remember, Friday is Options Expiration and that means starting Wed. the "in" crowd starts positioning themselves to pin stocks to strike prices. I've talked about this quite a few times and it remains one of the best trading ideas out there. It's one reason I love Options Expiration week.

Did you notice our GDP today? Thing is a BEAST and I suspect $100s isn't far around the corner. ANY pullback is buyable on it and I do mean ANY. ENER same drill, though the solar news may impact it, so be careful with it. Also, next week is 2nd quarter Window Dressing and our clients should get a heads up (sorry, can't post them here, but join!) shortly with some ideas for next week!

In the meantime, the seminar is rocking and despite some internet issues people are enjoying the experience. Today we had a couple losers early and then made up for it with BIDU short for about $6 overall. Total chop and slop market and for investors it remains = AGs and Solars and Energy or BUST!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "WAXIE" Parness

*The markets fade early Wed. should be a good one baring news. I think if we gap up in particular it'll make a nice short. We'll see soon enough! FOR A TRADE, fyi!

MONDAY MONDAY...

Well, market mixed it up Monday, with the tech heavy Nasdaq powering further ahead, and the DOW floundering a bit. The AGs once again led us higher, and the solar sector (our ENER, mentioned here AGAIN AND AGAIN his nearly $80!), and some big time techs like AAPL, RIMM, and BIDU powered ahead. The banks tried to get a big bounce, but it got sidelined and they got a small reprieve. All eyes are on GS Tuesday pre-market. I think good shot we get a pullin Tuesday. I ALMOST bought some puts at the close today, but would rather see what we do post GS. GS could very well beat and go much higher, which would send the banks and brokers higher. I will say that I do think the banks are going to get a bigger bounce shortly, maybe even Tuesday. Usually, as I mentioned here last week, heavily shorted and beaten down stocks get at least 2 or 3 days rally when they start to rally. The 1st day is usually the weakest, so if that follows through then watch that index for some more upside. In the meantime, the 1st day of the seminar was a SMASHING success as everyone but a couple said they made money and I am thinking tomorrow we'll knock 'em dead! We had V, POT, TITN all winners and all SWEET!

Missed a couple of trades I should have had, but hey, ya can't be perfect! Our ICO did nicely and hit our 1st target of $12.50 (amazing how good targets at resistence are!). GDP continued to plow higher as well.

I'm beat, so I'll keep it brief, if you haven't signed up for the chatroom, I suggest you do, as the summer winds through this market is going to have a TON of volatility and we are going to get some NASTY downturns, you may need all the help ya can get! We're here, baby, we're here - to help!

FYI - we have clients from all over the WORLD at the seminar! It's amazing to me, but every seminar we get people from around the world, literally! Our friend is here from France! Pretty freakin' cool if ya ask me! RULE!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

waxie@trendfund.com

The week ahead...

Market had a nice solid rally Friday. As I posted here Thursday, I though the brokers may have seen a near term "bottom" depending on news that comes out from GS Tuesday.

There's a trend I've found to be very profitable over the years. Usually a sector that is heavily shorted and hated will get at least 2 days and often 3 or 4 rally wise. Shorts need to cover and in a beaten down sector it usually takes more than 1 day to cover, and also panic starts to set in and the stocks get a nice bump. For LEH the CEO and CFO stepping down was the news that bottomed it near term. Do I think it'll last? NO SHOT IN HELL. But, so what? As a trader you just need it to last as long as you're in it.

Happy Father's DAY to all who qualify! Can't wait to give my baby girls a BIGGGG hug!
And, get one from them!

In the meantime, I'm preparing to meet a bunch of you in NJ at our seminar! I always enjoy meeting clients who are excited about learning how to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS!

This time is no different, Tiny, myself and Scott are all geared up! Hopefully we rule the market for the week. We shall see what we shall see!

Watch GS Tuesday, LEH monday is a non event more than likely given what happened last week. The stock might get a further bump and if GS doesn't say anything horrible GS might try for $200 again. I think its nuts and it'll move to $120s eventually (or lower) but the market doesn't move in one direction, it trades up and down and up and down and down and up, and...you get my drift.

Oh, I will be posting a link next week for you all to buy my movie, Crazy for Love. It's also now available for rent at Blockbusters around the country. Kinda cool. Give it a watch and let me know what you think...if you like it!

See ya on the other side...

Waxie

*I have a call on the banks shortly. Watch for C or a couple of the big guys to say they are cutting their dividends. I think THAT will be a tradeable bottom on a sell the rumor, buy the news TREND! I think it'll be a VERY nice trade actually, so keep an eye out for that news to break. When it does you might want to think about shorting the SKF or buying the banking index or the stocks that have that news. Obviously use a stop if you choose to take that trade. We shall see, what we shall see!

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!

RULE

MARKET MADNESS...

So the market today went up, then up more, and then DOWNNNNN and then UP again!

Volatility is here to stay, and thank goodness! TECH is starting to bust down a bit, and I think we're going to start putting on some put positions for a short term trade. If you look at the action in AAPL today you'll see a perfect example of what happens when momentum wanes on stocks that went parabolic. AAPL was $120s in march, it went all the way up to nearly $200. That's a ridiculous move. You see if it a ton of these stocks.

We're in for a period where we will start to get one step forward, two back. We'll see what happens but either this quarter or next we should see some MAJOR misses in tech. The notion that tech is safe in this economy is one of the biggest fables there is. That has NEVER been the case, quite the opposite. The recession and market tankage from 2000 to 2003 saw the Nasdaq (tech laden) index drop from 5200 to 1100s. Tech doesn't thrive in this environment and even though you have the AAPLs of the world still selling tons of I-PODs and I-Phones, that doesn't mean that the stock #1 doesn't already have it priced in (AAPL's P/E is pretty pricey) and also businesses "mature", they get to the point where growth has to slow or at least level off.

Speaking of which, I think the AGs are nearly at a short term top. I would not be surprised to see POT, MOS, etc. have decent sized pullbacks. Nothing goes straight up forever. They won't drop dead, their still have tremendous earnings growth, but they could get 10% pullins, we'll see soon enough. Next week is HUGE, GS earnings are gonna move this market. Tomorrow? Well, I would suspect some sideways choppy action baring any real news. Lastly, how bad does Jerry Yang and YHOO look now? MSFT offered them over $33 a share and they said no in this market! That's just SICK! Now look, MSFT walks away (don't believe it in the end) and YHOO stock is now $23. How the hell do you explain that to shareholders? Yes, its smart we walked away from MSFT! So what the stock has dropped 40% below the offering price! Who cares? I'll tell you what, if MSFT is serious, YHOO shares will eventually drop below $10. Their business is in bad shape, there's simply no reason for anyone to own that stock unless you take into acct the MSFT angle. You see? Even smart guys get slammed sometimes! All the Ichann's of the world took stakes in YHOO thinking they could force a sale to MSFT. MSFT was smart, they walked away. This looks a lot like BEAS and ORCL when ORCL walked away and then a few months later sucked them up in a buyout because BEAS pulled back a bit. Think about it, if you're MSFT you can now sit back and watch YHOO squirm. IF MSFT then comes back and says, ok dudes, we'll take you, but here's our final offer. I mean, what is YHOO gonna do? There is no way they can make an arguement that they are worth more than the offer. My GUESS is that MSFT comes back at the same price on the dot and says take it or leave it and YHOO jumps and toasts to everyone's good fortune. YHOO making a deal with GOOG is their way of trying to force MSFT into a deal. The problem for all these companies is, they are stuck. MSFT business can't possibly go anywhere unless they can cut into GOOG's dominance and they clearly can't do it alone. I'm not even sure YHOO helps them. And, the BIGGER problem, in my opinion is that online ad market will contract shortly with the recession, it has to. Bulls like to point out that people still have to buy things, and that's true. But, its the same as any other market, if people are buying LESS, or simply just not buying more, then the cost of the ads has to go DOWN. As always lately, I hope I am wrong! Hope springs eternal, but reality is sinking in! As always, yours in heart, mind and spirit. Waxie. P.S. Next week's NJ seminar has a very nice turnout. If you are on the fence, we added Scott to the mix and he will be at the seminar doing individual coaching with all attendees. This is the single best way for you guys to jumpstart what could be a real change of lifestyle in a job environment that ain't improving for a long while more than likely. email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any interest at all, we look forward to meeting you all there in NJ next week! RULE!

The brokers breaking down and I'm sitting in a storm...

Man, I tell ya, living on the 45th floor sometimes sucks. When your windows are shakin' and your earth is quaking, its not pretty. And that brings me to the market, which is really looking dismal. They tried to rally us a lot today and they failed a lot. Just a very sloppy choppy day, which are the hardest to trade. I have to say, its a good thing we stopped out of CORN and actually made money on that trade if you followed the suggestions. That's why ya use stops! Commodities are just busting out every day here. Thing is, they will correct, but I'm the first to tell ya that its pretty legit. FOOD is necessary. OIL is necessary (or a necessary evil). Metals are necessary. Stocks? They ain't necessary, sorry. You need commodities to LIVE. The DOW could go t zero, and it won't kill anyone in and of itself. People may jump out windows, which would obviously suck, but no one can be killed by a falling market. And, that my friends is the #1 reason why if you are going to trade you need to keep your eyes open and your head in the game! Thing is, at some pt commodities will break from the stocks. See, stocks can go down even if the commodity it deals in goes up. It doesn't work the other way around. We have a ton of good stuff going on and about to happen. We're rolling out some very cool initiatives, including our second Small Cap Monster newsletter July 1st, and Forex and new software. Stay tuned and if you haven't signed up for the NJ Live week long seminar with the partial Money Back Guarantee if the trades we call don't make money, you are gonna regret it! This is the time you NEED TO LEARN TO EARN! Don't sit back and think you'll do it later, it may be too late later!

Email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you want some more info on the seminar, there is still time but since it starts SUNDAY (yes, this Sunday!) you need to get in the game NOW!

See ya there, and see ya on the other side. Ya see LEH? CRACKED CITY. When its under $15 let me know, thats where I think its headed pretty easily. In the meantime, we should get a more decisive move Wednesday. We look lower here, but I guess something could bounce us. Probably a squeeze, but we'll see soon enough. Hopefully we get some bounces, would suck if we just went straight DOWNNNNNNNN! Unless you're short like us! RULE! Michael "WAXIE" Parness

Did anyone tell the Broker the one about the Bond?

The DOW finished the day GREEN. The Nasdaq fairly flat. AAPL was down $4s after a sell the news unveiling of the new I-Phone. I took an online survey, I really am not so interested in the I-Phone. Too many I's, it seems rather narcissistic, ya know?

As far as the rest of the market, well the AGS racked up huge gains again - POT, AGU, BG, etc. all had monster sized gains BUT the financials once again just bit the dust in a BIG BIG BIG way!

You gotta believe that the news coming is only gonna get worse and that eventually in the not too distant future the stuff holding up now is gonna get hit. If you look at oil today you see the danger in being the last one holding the bag. I'm not calling a top on Oil, it looks like $150 is a done deal at some point (I did call that not so long ago), but the volatility in the commodities market will reign supreme as long as the dollar remains weak-butted and falling into a bottomless pit!

On another note, I saw one of the worst films of all-time. The new Indiana Jones film was just absolutely absurdly atrocious. I kinda didn't want to see it, but I got caught in the hot NYC humidity yesterday afternoon and they wanted to see it, and so...oy vey, it was HORRID. I just don't get how anyone could give that a good review.

OK, 1st off, Harrison Ford looks closer to a wheel chair then he does to kicking big dudes butts. And, not just like 50, he musta knocked out like 5000 bad Russians (I don't think the Kremlin really cares much for this movie:)). Then, that kid Shia, I mean, I've liked him in other things, but he's simply not a tough kid. I think I could take the dude with one hand tied behind my back, a foot up my butt and a finger in my freakin' nose. How can they cast him as a tough? Very poor choice.

And, I must be dumb, seriously, because I just didn't get the whole thing with the plastic man faces. I think Speilberg had an ET flashback and decided he was going to combine movies or subliminally get some more sales out of back ordered DVDs!

OK, then I saw (this was my movie weekend) Sandler's movie, Zohan. OK, frankly, it was stupid funny. Sometimes hilariously so. And, overall it was ok. Having said that, it really got to be monotonous and one note. Very much so. It was just downright stupid in places. Well, hell, I just said it was stupid funny, so it got to be stupid stupid in some places. BUT, still heads HEADS above IJ. I was rooting for the bad guys to Kill Indie and the tough kid. That woulda made the movie. I was going to turn communist if it didn't end, I was giving it 10 minutes and then I was taking out my red card! :)

OK, back to the market, I just needed to get that off my hairy chest. OK, so here goes, market is going LOWER. We may bounce here and there but if you are investing you are doing so at your own peril. I just do not see how we are going to get anything really going rally wise. I guess if there is some good news on the financials somehow then we'd get a short term squeeze, but other than that, forgetaboutit.

In the meantime, let's look at Tuesday as more than likely a good trading day. I think the 1st move off the open is gonna be a doosey either way. Meaning if we gap up big and we start to roll over, watch for a trend down day. If we gap down I would look for us to perhaps get a nice reversal to the upside (it is turnaround Tuesday afterall!).

Oh, one more thing, as a guy, I am sure (quite) that both IJ and Zohan were better than Sex and the City! Which, fyi, is my marker for unavailable women. I have discovered (its the first question I ask) that any woman who tells me that her favorite show is SITC is not really relationship material. OK, it's a GROSS generalization, but it has panned out and the GFs I have who are single all love that show, but cry about being single, but any guy that is remotely available they run for the hills. Hey, what do I know? There is no show like that for guys. Guys are dogs, they don't want to watch SITC, they want to HAVE SITC with anyone and everyone. At least the single dudes I know?

Me? Eh, I'm still Waxing poetic and dreamin' da dreams and living large under the milky way. You didn't think I was gonna get all grotesque, did ya? :)

Hopefully you are all racking up. My GS and LEH short calls have worked like a charm and my long call in ENER is holding up mighty fine. I still think lower on LEH and GS and higher on ENER, but we'll see. If you are in them, I would tighten up your stops, GS will get a squeeze at some pt soon. I still say its below $125 longer term (and maybe short term) but they love to love GS. In fact, I know guys (some gurls, too) who want to make love to GS!

Yes, its a new show and its called - SWGS (Sex with Goldman Sachs). Just watch CNBC afterhours and you'll see how many times they make love with it saying what a great deal it is. Yep, sure it is and my name ain't Waxierunoooooo!

See ya on the other side, ladies and gents -

Michael da Waxie da Parness

RULE!

MAY ENDS, and so ends the rally!

OK, folks, today was what I expected for June, we are looking more and more like a breach of the March lows is coming sooner rather than later on the DOW and I expect the Nasdaq to follow suit. Technology won't hold up if the rest of the economy tanks. Unfortunately thats the way its shaping up.

We're looking at shorting FINANCIALS (kill the lowest hanging fruit first!). Then we'll go from there. LEH is gonna get cracked, GS is cracking already and the banks are pretty much doomed here, I believe. Every #s report they rally us HOPING that the # will show that the economy is finally turning! YEAH! NOT!

It's not gonna happen, sorry. I wish I were wrong, trust me. It impacts me as much as it impacts everyone else. The value of my money is less, and keeping you guys happy is harder. But, reality trumps hope!

I suspect unless there is some news we get a gap down (a gap up would be a serious short without any substancial news!). If it gets ugly we could get a near term capitulatory move and then an up move and then a nice bounce. Volatility is thriving and that should mean nice ka-chingos for us, so stick around and if you aren't a member yet, make sure you take the 2 week FREE trial or join one of our other services. This is a market rife with opportunity.

In the meantime, we're been approached about taking Trend Fund and Trend Trading to Win public, merging with a shell. So, who knows, perhaps we'll be calling our own stock short (that's a JOKE!)! With Investools (the model we're using) having a market cap north of $400 MIL, hey, why not! We shall see, life offers many twists and turns! If anyone has any insights or interest, feel free to email me at - waxie@trendfund.com

I think in this market people need some guidance and a safe place to learn, that's what we do best! I think that the market is going to be VERY rough for a long while for anyone trying to invest. You can listen to these pundits all you want, or you can listen to reality. Reality says the economy is shot for the forseeable future and you need to be SHORT here. Fantasy says you should buy buy buy. Sometimes there isn't a bull market anywhere. Yeah, energy, commodities, but at some pt. the underlying stocks will crack as well. That's been my experience.

I stick with my thought that short LEH, short GS, short some technology (TWM looks like a nice BUY here since its the inverse (double it) of the Russell.

In the meantime, have a great weekend. Peace be with ya, dudes and dudesses!

Michael "WAXIE" Parness

*My movie, CRAZY FOR LOVE is debuting in Blockbuster early next week, pick up a copy and write some nice things, if ya like it, on IMDB.com

Ka-chingo!

Market gapped up, faded and then ZOOMED the whole day, closing right at its peak! A very sharp TREND DAY, one of the best days a trader can have, if ya catch it!

ENER mentioned here last night on the blog was up over $4 (beastly move, we own the calls!) and will probably get another bump into the CEO speaking at the conference tomorrow. Might want to sell into that strength, at least part, assuming it happens.

ER/Rusell zoomed to a HOY and may get another leg up. Tech is being bought at a furious pace. Even the financials bounced (it'll set up another short soon), but the leaders here are CLEARLY the tecnology companies, and yes, the AGs and ENERGY (solar and oil/gas). I have to say, I'm surprised at the technology rally. I don't think its justified, but if nothing else I've learned over the years that the market doesn't need justification to do anything, it does what it does based on perception. Right now the perception still remains that the 2nd half will see a pickup in the economy. I think thats a bunch of malarky, but I certainly could and have been wrong, I'm not an economist, I'm a WAXIE!

Someone emailed me a question about the Nasdaq vs. the DOW and why the Nasdaq has been much stronger, relatively speaking. It's a fairly simple answer. The DOW has a huge financial makeup. The Nasdaq has a fair amount, but is much more technology heavy. So, in order for the DOW to really get cooking, the financials (Banks, Brokers, Insurers, REITs, Mortgage brokers/resellers, etc). need to start humming, like they did today. When these stocks finally do REALLY bottom, the DOW will rip huge. Of course where that bottom truly is could be now (doubtful) or it could be 4000 pts lower on the DOW (or somewhere, most likely, in between).

In the meantime, let's keep the powder dry. I'm watching ENER being bid up another $1.50 after hours! Weeee! Nice! Love it when its this easy!

Friday should be interesting. The market keeps anticipating an economic turnaround. I really don't think it should be, but it is and thus we run into #s these days in the hopes that TODAY is the day we start to turn it around! Hey, maybe it is, maybe it is! Until or after, though, the TRADER WILL RULE!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

I'm looking for May again!

OK, so here ya have the 1st week of June selloff underway (almost finished). We tried to rally early and it's not like we tanked, but we did finish right at the lows of day, not a strong sign and not a good sign. Maybe it's not a sign, but either way it ain't pretty!

Here's the dealio kiddies. I'm gonna give you some insight into how I personally think. Now perhaps it will be meaningful to some of you, perhaps not. And, perhaps it'll pan out, we shall see, but regardless this is part of what has made me the Waxie I am today!

OK, so you saw the early news (pre-market) on LEH, that they need to go and raise $4 BIL. And, as such the futures were tanking pretty hard, and LEH was down nearly $2. In fact the SKF, the inverse financial sector (short it by buying this long) was up nearly $3 premarket which is a pretty huge move.

Well, I thought we would bounce and we did and LEH went green by over $2 at one point on a short squeeze, nothing else. SKF went red by $2.

Now, why is that important? #1 nearly every financial stock that has said they wanted to raise money has gapped down and then filled the gap on a sell the rumor, buy the news scenario. SO, the bounce made perfect sense. And, even more imporantly, these stocks have then based and DIED - ALL OF THEM. WM, C, WB, USB. Look at the charts. So, what I'm saying is, if you want to short a broker, lock and load and load up on LEH short. While the trend may not work this time, my guess is it does in a big way. LEH looks like toast. I would not want to be long LEH if you gave me the money. Again, the trend may not work short term, but I think these stocks are all headed to the toilet. We shall see, but I just don't see how they can get any sustained bounce longer term. Squeezes will happen, but ultimately reality has to set in (usually) and the stocks will find themselves in the drink, and any investors in them will start to drink, or drink heavier in the end! Thursday watch ENER, the CEO speaks at a conference Friday it could get a nice bounce at some pt during the day into that event. See ya on the other side, Michael "Waxie" Parness

SELL IN MAY AND GO GO FAR FAR AWAY!

Tuesday showed that the bears are in control as an early rally attempt failed MISERABLY and we got HAMMERED as the day progressed.

If you are investing for the long haul in this market, I will tell you point blank you are a FOOL. We will get rallies, for sure, but the bias is LOWER here and bucking that bias more than likely will result in a CRACKED PORT, something that you should want to avoid.

There are better places to put your money right now than the Stock Market, unless of course you are a TRADER!

Wednesday should be interesting. I would say there's a good shot baring news that we go lower, particularly if we begin the day UP. That would be a great short I think, at least for a trade. We are oversold here a bit, but not enough to warrant a full bounce squeeze. Having said that, I doubt baring news that we go down that much more before getting a bounce attempt. If we get a big gap down, I think we should get a decent bounce.

Someone asked me today about the AGS and SOLAR stocks. Look, I love trading these stocks like POT, AGU, CMP (my fav, soon to be $100 stock) and FSLR and ENER, but eventually these sectors are going to get nasty drawdowns. I would not want to be buying POT here, if you missed it why do you want to be this late to the wedding, they have already gotten a divorce by this time and baby I don't want to be the last guy holding the bag!

Now, its possible that these stocks just continue to plow ahead, but I doubt it. My experience says that these things when they crack will crack HARD. The trick is not trying to pick that top, but rather take the short side when they start to crack. There's just no reason to short the strongest stocks on the board, but any bad news and I think they start to crumble. Bear markets go in stages. Stage 1 is the initial selloff and breaking of support. Step 2 the weakest get weaker. Step 3 the middle stocks start falling and Stage 4 the strongest stocks crack HARD! Look at 2000 to 2003, you will see that the strongest stocks held up the longest but then caught up in a HUGE way. We're not there yet, but unfortunately I think we will be not so far from now. We're here to help you find that place and take advantage of it.

I will see you guys tomorrow, if you see a late day rally start to develop on any day rest of this week I would jump; aboard. Same thing with a sharp selloff on no news that will probably lead to a real bounce, at least for the day.

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

DOWN DIDDY DO DI DOWN...

OK, so 1st day of new month, sell in May and go away so far 1st day = trend wins.

I was hoping with the early down move it would really stick so we could get a real nice bounce Tuesday. As it is and as this market is really sensitive to news flow, mid-day defenses were launched regarding MER and LEH and the market got a hefty bounce off the lows. Still down decently (S&P and ER both down over 1%) but well off the lows of the day. More like the middle of the days range.

So, Tuesday I would love to revisit Monday's lows and see if we can get a nice bounce. The trend here would be lower overall, but it won't be a straight line unless we get dramatic news. The brokers look awful, as do all the financials. S & P downgraded the sector (duh) and frankly I just don't see how or why anyone wants to step in front of that freight train on the short side. GS has SIGNIFICANT room to the downside. You want a short for the long run? OK, take Fast Money's STOCK OF THE YEAR and send in your short, it'll be under $125 at some pt this year, mark it down.

In the meantime, let's see what news come out tomorrow.

FOr the many that have asked, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS newsletter will hit the "stands" July 1st. Our 1st issue from last month has been a SMASHING MONSTER success!

SATC, our 1st stock is up roughly 50% in a few weeks from $1.80s to $2.80s (was $3). DEPO, our 2nd stock is up better than 15% in same time frame.

We have at least 2 more small cap MONSTERS in the coming issue. If you have any interest email me at waxie@trendfund.com and we'll steer you to the signup in the next week or so. We're also launching a Small Cap TRADER service that will include the newsletter. Prices right now, fyi, are roughly $199 for 6 months of the newsletter (plus a weekly update) and the Small Cap Trader, which gets all of the above, plus intraday plays when appropriate and trades on small caps. That service is $599 for 6 months.

Tomorrow's FREE CLASS which many have emailed me about, email ILENE@trendfund.com and she'll send you the link and instructions. The class will feature Tiny giving some very valuable and I believe profitable tips and tricks for every day trading, and I'll talk about the general market and discuss the upcoming seminar in New Jersey which you ALL should attend! It's got a MONEY BACK GUARENTEE! You have very little to lose and everything to gain!

Check out http://www.trendfund.com/ to see what the NJ Seminar has to offer and sign up today!

Good trading tomorrow, folks!

Just want to send out a prayer for the gentlemen who I saw get hit by a taxi today on Amsterdam and 73rd street. Was pretty horrific, the man was in bad shape when he was taken away. A few people really tried to help and hopefully he'll be ok. Sometimes in the middle of our own self indulgent nonsense we realize that there are a lot more things a lot more important then whether the Dow and Nasdaq were up or down that day, or that week, or that year. We humans are very fragile, and life is indeed precious.

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness