Tuesday showed that the bears are in control as an early rally attempt failed MISERABLY and we got HAMMERED as the day progressed.
If you are investing for the long haul in this market, I will tell you point blank you are a FOOL. We will get rallies, for sure, but the bias is LOWER here and bucking that bias more than likely will result in a CRACKED PORT, something that you should want to avoid.
There are better places to put your money right now than the Stock Market, unless of course you are a TRADER!
Wednesday should be interesting. I would say there's a good shot baring news that we go lower, particularly if we begin the day UP. That would be a great short I think, at least for a trade. We are oversold here a bit, but not enough to warrant a full bounce squeeze. Having said that, I doubt baring news that we go down that much more before getting a bounce attempt. If we get a big gap down, I think we should get a decent bounce.
Someone asked me today about the AGS and SOLAR stocks. Look, I love trading these stocks like POT, AGU, CMP (my fav, soon to be $100 stock) and FSLR and ENER, but eventually these sectors are going to get nasty drawdowns. I would not want to be buying POT here, if you missed it why do you want to be this late to the wedding, they have already gotten a divorce by this time and baby I don't want to be the last guy holding the bag!
Now, its possible that these stocks just continue to plow ahead, but I doubt it. My experience says that these things when they crack will crack HARD. The trick is not trying to pick that top, but rather take the short side when they start to crack. There's just no reason to short the strongest stocks on the board, but any bad news and I think they start to crumble. Bear markets go in stages. Stage 1 is the initial selloff and breaking of support. Step 2 the weakest get weaker. Step 3 the middle stocks start falling and Stage 4 the strongest stocks crack HARD! Look at 2000 to 2003, you will see that the strongest stocks held up the longest but then caught up in a HUGE way. We're not there yet, but unfortunately I think we will be not so far from now. We're here to help you find that place and take advantage of it.
I will see you guys tomorrow, if you see a late day rally start to develop on any day rest of this week I would jump; aboard. Same thing with a sharp selloff on no news that will probably lead to a real bounce, at least for the day.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Monday, June 02, 2008
DOWN DIDDY DO DI DOWN...
OK, so 1st day of new month, sell in May and go away so far 1st day = trend wins.
I was hoping with the early down move it would really stick so we could get a real nice bounce Tuesday. As it is and as this market is really sensitive to news flow, mid-day defenses were launched regarding MER and LEH and the market got a hefty bounce off the lows. Still down decently (S&P and ER both down over 1%) but well off the lows of the day. More like the middle of the days range.
So, Tuesday I would love to revisit Monday's lows and see if we can get a nice bounce. The trend here would be lower overall, but it won't be a straight line unless we get dramatic news. The brokers look awful, as do all the financials. S & P downgraded the sector (duh) and frankly I just don't see how or why anyone wants to step in front of that freight train on the short side. GS has SIGNIFICANT room to the downside. You want a short for the long run? OK, take Fast Money's STOCK OF THE YEAR and send in your short, it'll be under $125 at some pt this year, mark it down.
In the meantime, let's see what news come out tomorrow.
FOr the many that have asked, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS newsletter will hit the "stands" July 1st. Our 1st issue from last month has been a SMASHING MONSTER success!
SATC, our 1st stock is up roughly 50% in a few weeks from $1.80s to $2.80s (was $3). DEPO, our 2nd stock is up better than 15% in same time frame.
We have at least 2 more small cap MONSTERS in the coming issue. If you have any interest email me at waxie@trendfund.com and we'll steer you to the signup in the next week or so. We're also launching a Small Cap TRADER service that will include the newsletter. Prices right now, fyi, are roughly $199 for 6 months of the newsletter (plus a weekly update) and the Small Cap Trader, which gets all of the above, plus intraday plays when appropriate and trades on small caps. That service is $599 for 6 months.
Tomorrow's FREE CLASS which many have emailed me about, email ILENE@trendfund.com and she'll send you the link and instructions. The class will feature Tiny giving some very valuable and I believe profitable tips and tricks for every day trading, and I'll talk about the general market and discuss the upcoming seminar in New Jersey which you ALL should attend! It's got a MONEY BACK GUARENTEE! You have very little to lose and everything to gain!
Check out http://www.trendfund.com/ to see what the NJ Seminar has to offer and sign up today!
Good trading tomorrow, folks!
Just want to send out a prayer for the gentlemen who I saw get hit by a taxi today on Amsterdam and 73rd street. Was pretty horrific, the man was in bad shape when he was taken away. A few people really tried to help and hopefully he'll be ok. Sometimes in the middle of our own self indulgent nonsense we realize that there are a lot more things a lot more important then whether the Dow and Nasdaq were up or down that day, or that week, or that year. We humans are very fragile, and life is indeed precious.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I was hoping with the early down move it would really stick so we could get a real nice bounce Tuesday. As it is and as this market is really sensitive to news flow, mid-day defenses were launched regarding MER and LEH and the market got a hefty bounce off the lows. Still down decently (S&P and ER both down over 1%) but well off the lows of the day. More like the middle of the days range.
So, Tuesday I would love to revisit Monday's lows and see if we can get a nice bounce. The trend here would be lower overall, but it won't be a straight line unless we get dramatic news. The brokers look awful, as do all the financials. S & P downgraded the sector (duh) and frankly I just don't see how or why anyone wants to step in front of that freight train on the short side. GS has SIGNIFICANT room to the downside. You want a short for the long run? OK, take Fast Money's STOCK OF THE YEAR and send in your short, it'll be under $125 at some pt this year, mark it down.
In the meantime, let's see what news come out tomorrow.
FOr the many that have asked, our 2nd issue of SMALL CAP MONSTERS newsletter will hit the "stands" July 1st. Our 1st issue from last month has been a SMASHING MONSTER success!
SATC, our 1st stock is up roughly 50% in a few weeks from $1.80s to $2.80s (was $3). DEPO, our 2nd stock is up better than 15% in same time frame.
We have at least 2 more small cap MONSTERS in the coming issue. If you have any interest email me at waxie@trendfund.com and we'll steer you to the signup in the next week or so. We're also launching a Small Cap TRADER service that will include the newsletter. Prices right now, fyi, are roughly $199 for 6 months of the newsletter (plus a weekly update) and the Small Cap Trader, which gets all of the above, plus intraday plays when appropriate and trades on small caps. That service is $599 for 6 months.
Tomorrow's FREE CLASS which many have emailed me about, email ILENE@trendfund.com and she'll send you the link and instructions. The class will feature Tiny giving some very valuable and I believe profitable tips and tricks for every day trading, and I'll talk about the general market and discuss the upcoming seminar in New Jersey which you ALL should attend! It's got a MONEY BACK GUARENTEE! You have very little to lose and everything to gain!
Check out http://www.trendfund.com/ to see what the NJ Seminar has to offer and sign up today!
Good trading tomorrow, folks!
Just want to send out a prayer for the gentlemen who I saw get hit by a taxi today on Amsterdam and 73rd street. Was pretty horrific, the man was in bad shape when he was taken away. A few people really tried to help and hopefully he'll be ok. Sometimes in the middle of our own self indulgent nonsense we realize that there are a lot more things a lot more important then whether the Dow and Nasdaq were up or down that day, or that week, or that year. We humans are very fragile, and life is indeed precious.
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Saturday, May 31, 2008
1st week of a new month biases...
As is the trend, we ran pretty good into the end of the month. So, where do we go from here? The initial trend would be twofold (actually 3);
A)reverse the prior months biases. Meaning that the stuff that was cold, mainly, will play catch up IF the market is destined for higher ground. So, brokers, banks, and maybe even home builders would have an up week this week. This bias is not as profound as end of quarter Window Dressing, one of our stronger trends, but it does come into play.
B)Sell in May, go away. This is a saying everyone knows for a reason, it usually proves to be true. Historically we are coming into a bad time for the markets to try to hold onto gains. BUT, shortly we'll be back into earnings season, and the thing is in this market the momentum names are very attractive for a trade into these earnings. Ya never know when that will end, but some sectors, particularly the Ags and Solars are still early stage enough to trade them. I may do an EARNINGS RUNNER list and class this quarter for earnings, let's see how it plays out.
C)Let's watch the news flow this week. This is a key week for us as traders. The market closed Friday literally right at strong resistence. 1400 on the ES and roughly 750 on the ER. I think if we get a gap monday it's fadeable either way as traders will try to figure out if we are going to bust that resistence and attempt to head for yearly highs, or if we are going to get a steeper pullback.
I was leaning shorter and still kinda/sorta am, but I'm more neutral than anything else here and would prefer to stay nimble. There are many times when we have a clear bias, this isn't one of them. Let's see how it pans out!
TUESDAY 9;15 to 10:30 we are doing a FREE class and we'll discuss the upcoming June LIVE trading seminar, with money back guarentee! So, try to be there, its FREE, no risk, all reward!
Also,
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
A)reverse the prior months biases. Meaning that the stuff that was cold, mainly, will play catch up IF the market is destined for higher ground. So, brokers, banks, and maybe even home builders would have an up week this week. This bias is not as profound as end of quarter Window Dressing, one of our stronger trends, but it does come into play.
B)Sell in May, go away. This is a saying everyone knows for a reason, it usually proves to be true. Historically we are coming into a bad time for the markets to try to hold onto gains. BUT, shortly we'll be back into earnings season, and the thing is in this market the momentum names are very attractive for a trade into these earnings. Ya never know when that will end, but some sectors, particularly the Ags and Solars are still early stage enough to trade them. I may do an EARNINGS RUNNER list and class this quarter for earnings, let's see how it plays out.
C)Let's watch the news flow this week. This is a key week for us as traders. The market closed Friday literally right at strong resistence. 1400 on the ES and roughly 750 on the ER. I think if we get a gap monday it's fadeable either way as traders will try to figure out if we are going to bust that resistence and attempt to head for yearly highs, or if we are going to get a steeper pullback.
I was leaning shorter and still kinda/sorta am, but I'm more neutral than anything else here and would prefer to stay nimble. There are many times when we have a clear bias, this isn't one of them. Let's see how it pans out!
TUESDAY 9;15 to 10:30 we are doing a FREE class and we'll discuss the upcoming June LIVE trading seminar, with money back guarentee! So, try to be there, its FREE, no risk, all reward!
Also,
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, May 29, 2008
CORN
A few people have emailed me about this trade idea (hey, I'll trade anything if it looks good!). Apparently many of you do indeed trade commodities. CORN is rocking for us and looks good to go down even further. As I stated a couple times here recently, a break below 584 was key and I think if it can hold below that or close to that it should see 550 soon enough.
In the meantime, if I'm not mistaken Corn was around 605 when I called it short. It's now up over .20 which is a very nice move. I suggest taking some profits and going from there. Still think 550 and then if we get real nice move down maybe even a retest of 500,but thats a long way off.
Trade 'em, don't own 'em!
CRACK THAT CORN, BABY!
P.S. I do think oil is peaking here near term, but shorting that thing is so dang tough, its a beast. I just think that at some pt it has to retest $100. But, I'm the guy who called it long to $100 and then $150 when it was $32 and then $70s! So, what do I know! Hehe!
RULE
In the meantime, if I'm not mistaken Corn was around 605 when I called it short. It's now up over .20 which is a very nice move. I suggest taking some profits and going from there. Still think 550 and then if we get real nice move down maybe even a retest of 500,but thats a long way off.
Trade 'em, don't own 'em!
CRACK THAT CORN, BABY!
P.S. I do think oil is peaking here near term, but shorting that thing is so dang tough, its a beast. I just think that at some pt it has to retest $100. But, I'm the guy who called it long to $100 and then $150 when it was $32 and then $70s! So, what do I know! Hehe!
RULE
END OF MONTH BIAS
Is almost always to the upside as funds square away positions and try to get long the stocks that have done the best during the rest of the month. Its a mini Window Dressing time.
This mini rally we have doesn't look very strong, next week will be very telling as far as where we're headed. I just don't see us going much further to the upside without a decent size pullback, but hey, the market can buck that idea in a hurry. I still say CASH is king here until we get a clear direction. I always try to teach clients that there really is very little advantage to holding a position overnight, unless you can't watch your stocks, or can't trade altogether. Think about it, if you trade out of everything every day and start fresh you can get status as mark to market (check with your acct on this*), you can miss all the big drawdowns to start a day, those panic pains when you watch a stock you own get bad news and crumble, or the whole market tanking. The only thing you may miss is a huge gap up, or news that comes to push it way higher. But, if you average it out, you are probably better off just selling everything at days end and rebuying the next day.
Oh, you do lose the capital gains benefit if your stock appreciates significantly, that is true. But, in my view, I like to be mostly cash end of day, with some position stuff leaning one way or the other depending on what's being set up, or if its a swing trade for a specific trend where I do feel that there is a high probability that the stock will gap up during that phase more often then not. Say you are buying GOOG calls into earnings, GOOG tends to gap up a lot during that time frame, so you may not want to sell those calls every day, you may want to hold them. But, generally speaking I like to sell at days end and restart. It's hard to recover on a day when you are wrong to start the day and down a lot because of stuff you held overnight. Far too often I see (and I've done it myself) people then chase the loss to start the day on their swings and end up doubling the loss and feeling dumb.
Friday is last trading day of the month. Again, usually a bias to the upside, but one thing to keep an eye on is that the Nasdaq is sitting right at 2500. Thats a key resistence area. A clean break would potentially send us a lot higher, but a clean break DOWN and failure up here could lead to a bigger drawdown in the market.
Today I called V calls, the $80s. I'm not crazy about being long or short here on much, but with MA moving the way it did the thinking was/is that V can see new highs and try for $100s shortly. We'll see, its a very small play, no harm, no foul.
Next TUESDAY at 9:15 to 10:30 we are having a FREE class for ALL so we can show you some nice techniques to help your daily trading, and also to sell you all on the idea of coming to the NJ 7-day Live seminar. If you have any interest in that, email me - waxie@Trendfund.com and I'll shoot you some info!
See ya all tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
This mini rally we have doesn't look very strong, next week will be very telling as far as where we're headed. I just don't see us going much further to the upside without a decent size pullback, but hey, the market can buck that idea in a hurry. I still say CASH is king here until we get a clear direction. I always try to teach clients that there really is very little advantage to holding a position overnight, unless you can't watch your stocks, or can't trade altogether. Think about it, if you trade out of everything every day and start fresh you can get status as mark to market (check with your acct on this*), you can miss all the big drawdowns to start a day, those panic pains when you watch a stock you own get bad news and crumble, or the whole market tanking. The only thing you may miss is a huge gap up, or news that comes to push it way higher. But, if you average it out, you are probably better off just selling everything at days end and rebuying the next day.
Oh, you do lose the capital gains benefit if your stock appreciates significantly, that is true. But, in my view, I like to be mostly cash end of day, with some position stuff leaning one way or the other depending on what's being set up, or if its a swing trade for a specific trend where I do feel that there is a high probability that the stock will gap up during that phase more often then not. Say you are buying GOOG calls into earnings, GOOG tends to gap up a lot during that time frame, so you may not want to sell those calls every day, you may want to hold them. But, generally speaking I like to sell at days end and restart. It's hard to recover on a day when you are wrong to start the day and down a lot because of stuff you held overnight. Far too often I see (and I've done it myself) people then chase the loss to start the day on their swings and end up doubling the loss and feeling dumb.
Friday is last trading day of the month. Again, usually a bias to the upside, but one thing to keep an eye on is that the Nasdaq is sitting right at 2500. Thats a key resistence area. A clean break would potentially send us a lot higher, but a clean break DOWN and failure up here could lead to a bigger drawdown in the market.
Today I called V calls, the $80s. I'm not crazy about being long or short here on much, but with MA moving the way it did the thinking was/is that V can see new highs and try for $100s shortly. We'll see, its a very small play, no harm, no foul.
Next TUESDAY at 9:15 to 10:30 we are having a FREE class for ALL so we can show you some nice techniques to help your daily trading, and also to sell you all on the idea of coming to the NJ 7-day Live seminar. If you have any interest in that, email me - waxie@Trendfund.com and I'll shoot you some info!
See ya all tomorrow!
RULE!
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
SLOP & CHOP!
Market just traded up and down, down and up most of the day, sloppy and choppy, finally getting a bounce late day.
I think we should get a bigger expansion move into Friday and end of the month. Which way? My guess would be higher for all the reasons listed yesterday. End of the month buying bias, etc. Having said that, I'm hedging here since I just think we are so insanely overpriced. But, overpriced can get more overpriced. Bubbles get bigger until they POP!
I'm still under the weather, I just wanted to check in. I'm hoping the financials get another bounce, I would like to buy some puts on GS. Its tradin like it wants lower.
Have a great day tomorrow, folks! Make sure you email me with interest, if you haven't done so already, in the 7 day LIVE trading seminar in New Jersey, offering the (mostly) money back guarantee!
waxie@trendfund.com
RULE!
Michael Waxie Parness
I think we should get a bigger expansion move into Friday and end of the month. Which way? My guess would be higher for all the reasons listed yesterday. End of the month buying bias, etc. Having said that, I'm hedging here since I just think we are so insanely overpriced. But, overpriced can get more overpriced. Bubbles get bigger until they POP!
I'm still under the weather, I just wanted to check in. I'm hoping the financials get another bounce, I would like to buy some puts on GS. Its tradin like it wants lower.
Have a great day tomorrow, folks! Make sure you email me with interest, if you haven't done so already, in the 7 day LIVE trading seminar in New Jersey, offering the (mostly) money back guarantee!
waxie@trendfund.com
RULE!
Michael Waxie Parness
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
FOOD GLORIOUS FOOD...
Oil dipped, so did commodities, cooling things off and despite LEH getting their earnings estimates cut from profit of .50 cents, to a loss of .50 cents, financials bounced as well. Tuesday if oil follow through to the downside perhaps we'll get a further bounce, we shall see. Market overall usually has an upside bias last week of the month as fund managers look to get long the winners in month to month window dressing. I thought we'd pull in Monday, but that was not the case at all. A lot of people got short LEH and other brokers because of pending news and some of that came. LEH gapped down on the news big and then powered to close at HOD, plus over $1. The oldest trend in the books? Buy the rumor, sell the news. The second oldest? Sell the rumor, buy the news!
Tonight I'll be short, I'm a wee bit under the weather, so is my oldest. The joys of being a parent, getting every possibly bug your kids get! Hehe. Just remember to RULE and don't commit here either way, CASH IS indeed king! Waxie
Tonight I'll be short, I'm a wee bit under the weather, so is my oldest. The joys of being a parent, getting every possibly bug your kids get! Hehe. Just remember to RULE and don't commit here either way, CASH IS indeed king! Waxie
Monday, May 26, 2008
The coming week...
First off, hope everyone had a safe and mindful Memorial Day mini-vacation. On Tuesday its back to work, though. So, let's get cooking!
Market right now is Futures UP slightly overnight. Probably a pretty easy short for anyone up, though I guess its possible we get a big gap up tomorrow. I just don't see us going up early in the week much. We'll see soon enough. I would think that we can bounce later in the week, but it just doesn't seem, baring news, there is going to be much buying pressure early this week.
Last week you saw evidence of why it's tough to really stay long this market. The market almost always falls a LOT faster than it rises. This market has been teetering on a big drawdown for a while. Up volume has been pathetic recently and frankly we are way overvalued here. The economy continues to worsen. That's not a time you want to throw your money into the stock market, sorry. Warren Buffett over the weekend came out and said that he sees a LONG and BAD Recession (and that we're already in one - duh!).
The market has rallied off the March lows based on the notion that the 2nd half is going to be much better. This is as foolhardy a notion as I've heard in a long long time. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong, I'd rather be told here that "hey, Waxie, you said the economy would suck and its rocking!" then have us all feel the effects of what I believe is going to be a pretty devastating economic downturn.
I think the banks are just a gimme short. I think GS, SOV, C, WB are all clear shorts. I think MER is a short and I think LEH is a short and I think the SKF has a long way to go (inverse financials - so shorting them).
Look for us to retest and bust below the March lows in the not too distant future. While its still possible we'll see a new HOY, I doubt it now. We look like we may bounce at some point this week but then just remember the adage - sell in May and go away! It should work and be very good advice this year. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but for those of you who want to short the market, you're getting your chance.
If I am right, though, watch the ER (Russell), I think it should see under 700 at some pt this week. If it can't hold that then it'll see 675 pretty fast.
let's see what shakes, its a new week, I mean, maybe they come back buying, anything is possible.
Either way, remember to RULE!
FYI - if you haven't signed up for the 5 day LIVE New Jersey seminar, please email me @ mjparness1@aol.com to sign up. There is a very nice money back guarantee being offered. I think now more than ever is a good time to learn how to rule this market, there are ample opps whether we go up or down, but in a down market you better have some skills or you are doomed to get crushed.
Waxie
Market right now is Futures UP slightly overnight. Probably a pretty easy short for anyone up, though I guess its possible we get a big gap up tomorrow. I just don't see us going up early in the week much. We'll see soon enough. I would think that we can bounce later in the week, but it just doesn't seem, baring news, there is going to be much buying pressure early this week.
Last week you saw evidence of why it's tough to really stay long this market. The market almost always falls a LOT faster than it rises. This market has been teetering on a big drawdown for a while. Up volume has been pathetic recently and frankly we are way overvalued here. The economy continues to worsen. That's not a time you want to throw your money into the stock market, sorry. Warren Buffett over the weekend came out and said that he sees a LONG and BAD Recession (and that we're already in one - duh!).
The market has rallied off the March lows based on the notion that the 2nd half is going to be much better. This is as foolhardy a notion as I've heard in a long long time. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong, I'd rather be told here that "hey, Waxie, you said the economy would suck and its rocking!" then have us all feel the effects of what I believe is going to be a pretty devastating economic downturn.
I think the banks are just a gimme short. I think GS, SOV, C, WB are all clear shorts. I think MER is a short and I think LEH is a short and I think the SKF has a long way to go (inverse financials - so shorting them).
Look for us to retest and bust below the March lows in the not too distant future. While its still possible we'll see a new HOY, I doubt it now. We look like we may bounce at some point this week but then just remember the adage - sell in May and go away! It should work and be very good advice this year. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but for those of you who want to short the market, you're getting your chance.
If I am right, though, watch the ER (Russell), I think it should see under 700 at some pt this week. If it can't hold that then it'll see 675 pretty fast.
let's see what shakes, its a new week, I mean, maybe they come back buying, anything is possible.
Either way, remember to RULE!
FYI - if you haven't signed up for the 5 day LIVE New Jersey seminar, please email me @ mjparness1@aol.com to sign up. There is a very nice money back guarantee being offered. I think now more than ever is a good time to learn how to rule this market, there are ample opps whether we go up or down, but in a down market you better have some skills or you are doomed to get crushed.
Waxie
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Turn out the lights, the party is starting to look OVA!
Market tanked hard after the Feds came out and said, duh, economy is definately NOT getting better and in fact is getting WORSE, real estate is going lower and inflation is troubling.
I mean, are these surprise comments? No! But, as always, optimism will drive a bear market rally to the top of the heep, only to leave a lot of people holding the proverbial bag who bought into the notion that the "bottom is is".
Let me be emphatic about one thing, there is no such thing as a "bottom"! Financials are so vastly overpriced still its insane. The brokers in particular look at least 50% overpriced and yeah, that includes Goldman Sachs which has at least 25 - 30 BILLION in bad debt on their books from what I've seen and I still say sees $125 or lower this year. Go against that call at your own risk! I stick to it.
The short list we did is starting to pay off, I would look at some of the recent momo moves for potential shorts if we continue selling off. I like SOLF a lot SHORT now, and we called the puts today and are up on them a wee bit already. Look for a lot of this type of stock to retrace quickly if the market gets an extended downward move.
Remember, the reason why "Sell in May and go away" is in the vernacular is because it's a TREND that has worked many times over the years.
Also remember that nothing goes in a straight line, so while I think we are looking increasingly bearish, I would look to unload longs on the rallies from here and also look to set up some shorts on any bump on short covering. If I'm right, and obviously that's not a given, then we should trend DOWN and then get a nice bump next earnings period. Market has seemed to follow that trend the last few quarters and it seems to want to do that now.
Oil at $130s, jeez louise, it don't stop! I would think now we have a legit shot of seeing my $150 target this year. Sucks, thats one call I wish I was wrong about, trust me. Costs me $100+ to fill up my SUV, this week I am selling it and leasing a hybrid. While I'm not a huge believer that hybrids are the answer, since I want to dump my truck anyway, might as well do a bit better, right?
In the meantime, let's see what shakes out here. We are probably gonna be sloppy and choppy. DOn't expect just a total dumping, but again, I think we look pretty putrid here. BUT, also remember that even though the Fed said things are crappy *again - duh!* they also DID say that the 2nd half of the year should see a pickup.
Do I believe that? Not a shot, but hope does, indeed, spring eternal!
RULE!
Waxie
I mean, are these surprise comments? No! But, as always, optimism will drive a bear market rally to the top of the heep, only to leave a lot of people holding the proverbial bag who bought into the notion that the "bottom is is".
Let me be emphatic about one thing, there is no such thing as a "bottom"! Financials are so vastly overpriced still its insane. The brokers in particular look at least 50% overpriced and yeah, that includes Goldman Sachs which has at least 25 - 30 BILLION in bad debt on their books from what I've seen and I still say sees $125 or lower this year. Go against that call at your own risk! I stick to it.
The short list we did is starting to pay off, I would look at some of the recent momo moves for potential shorts if we continue selling off. I like SOLF a lot SHORT now, and we called the puts today and are up on them a wee bit already. Look for a lot of this type of stock to retrace quickly if the market gets an extended downward move.
Remember, the reason why "Sell in May and go away" is in the vernacular is because it's a TREND that has worked many times over the years.
Also remember that nothing goes in a straight line, so while I think we are looking increasingly bearish, I would look to unload longs on the rallies from here and also look to set up some shorts on any bump on short covering. If I'm right, and obviously that's not a given, then we should trend DOWN and then get a nice bump next earnings period. Market has seemed to follow that trend the last few quarters and it seems to want to do that now.
Oil at $130s, jeez louise, it don't stop! I would think now we have a legit shot of seeing my $150 target this year. Sucks, thats one call I wish I was wrong about, trust me. Costs me $100+ to fill up my SUV, this week I am selling it and leasing a hybrid. While I'm not a huge believer that hybrids are the answer, since I want to dump my truck anyway, might as well do a bit better, right?
In the meantime, let's see what shakes out here. We are probably gonna be sloppy and choppy. DOn't expect just a total dumping, but again, I think we look pretty putrid here. BUT, also remember that even though the Fed said things are crappy *again - duh!* they also DID say that the 2nd half of the year should see a pickup.
Do I believe that? Not a shot, but hope does, indeed, spring eternal!
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, May 19, 2008
Did anyone see da rally?
After a huge monster type blowoff early Monday, the market sold off pretty strongly, sending recent momentum favs and beat up financails tumbling back down. The brokers and banks were up early but could not sustain any gains and most finished REDDDD.
HOT FLASH - the financials are DEAD MONEY, folks. Stay away, avoid them. First off, even if they were "bottomed" which is ludicrous in my view, why would you bother taking LEH or MER or C long when if the market rallies you'll get a lot more bang for your buck with one of the leaders (POT,FSLR, MA, etc)? Risk vs. Reward is everything folks and the financials provide none of that. The fact that AAPL sold off is very telling potentially. I think the early strength and seeing stupid stocks as I call them (our SOLF, CHNR, etc) running on fumes usually spells a near term top. I said for a while I thought ES might see 1450 area and we got awful close today. While I could still see us going higher off a pullback, I think we are getting VERY toppy here. Even if the economy was turning around (rubbish) the market isn't going to 25,000 anytime soon, so at this pt we are way overbought.
You see my corn? Still going down. We'll see. Right now I would look at dips as buying opps til proven otherwise, but I think we do need a pause. And remember the old adage, GO AWAY and sell in MAY!
I'm not ready to start shorting at will, though GS and such look lower to me here still unless news comes to propel them higher.
Trade day to day here, we are so choppy you gotta stick with whats working. Yes, I am noncommittal here cause I think long term bearish is right, short term choppy to down and chop downs being bought. Stay ready and stay sharp!
RULE!
WAXIE
HOT FLASH - the financials are DEAD MONEY, folks. Stay away, avoid them. First off, even if they were "bottomed" which is ludicrous in my view, why would you bother taking LEH or MER or C long when if the market rallies you'll get a lot more bang for your buck with one of the leaders (POT,FSLR, MA, etc)? Risk vs. Reward is everything folks and the financials provide none of that. The fact that AAPL sold off is very telling potentially. I think the early strength and seeing stupid stocks as I call them (our SOLF, CHNR, etc) running on fumes usually spells a near term top. I said for a while I thought ES might see 1450 area and we got awful close today. While I could still see us going higher off a pullback, I think we are getting VERY toppy here. Even if the economy was turning around (rubbish) the market isn't going to 25,000 anytime soon, so at this pt we are way overbought.
You see my corn? Still going down. We'll see. Right now I would look at dips as buying opps til proven otherwise, but I think we do need a pause. And remember the old adage, GO AWAY and sell in MAY!
I'm not ready to start shorting at will, though GS and such look lower to me here still unless news comes to propel them higher.
Trade day to day here, we are so choppy you gotta stick with whats working. Yes, I am noncommittal here cause I think long term bearish is right, short term choppy to down and chop downs being bought. Stay ready and stay sharp!
RULE!
WAXIE
Thursday, May 15, 2008
FRIDAY = THE WITCHING HOUR HAS BEGUN!
OK, so we got a very nice up move in the markets Thursday, extending the rally without the financials. Once again it was on low volume, but a rally is a rally. Watch for the pin action on the momo players, as usual. SOLF, our Stock play of the week ROCKED and clients are going nuts for the bloody dang Ka-chingos!
ENER also rocked again. Couple to keep your eyes on; DE (looking $85 pin) and GS ($185 or $190). ALso watch the usual suspects like AAPL and RIMM and of course GOOG.
I gotta finish my last two chapters of Rule Your Freakin' Retirement tonight for publisher so I'll keep it brief.
This weekend is HUGE, Yanks/Mets, let's go Mets! I know, most of you could care less, you root for other teams, but it's a huge weekend for Waxerino.
Speaking of baseball, you know what sucks about our society? No, its not war, its not starvation, its not teenage pregnancy, or drug abuse. No, none of that, it's that pitchers don't ever go more than 6 innings anymore! It's sad, really. I pitched as a kid and teenager until I threw my arm out and now I can't even reach the freakin' plate, but before I digress, every baseball fan loves it when a pitcher goes 9, fans 11 and gives up 4 hits. This isn't DH vs. no DH argument, there is no argument, pitchers are supposed to go 8 or 9 innings unless they get bombed. Now? Micah Owings on Arizona, who seems to be a better hitter than pitcher, is 5 and 1 and hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in any start. That's ridiculous. And, the excuse is that because of the big salaries the teams are worried about pitchers getting injured. That's nonsense, how many times was Seaver or Palmer, or Goose or a ton of pitchers on the DL back then? I'm betting you had a very similar ratio, or even better. It's a real shame.
But, what will be more of a shame is if the market chops around tomorrow like it did a lot today. Chop days are toughest days to trade cause if you overtrade them you end up stopping out no matter which way you play it. I think next week is gonna be a big directional move. Maybe we get to the new High of Year we've discussed. S & P looks like it wants that 1450s mark and we'll see if I was right about that area being a top of sorts. I guess we could go to 1500s, or beyond. I don't really see it, but ya never know. Unlike pitchers who you know aren't going more than 6 innings, a rally can go on, and on and on and where it stops....no one knows!
See ya manana, let's rock!
Michael WAXIE Parness
ENER also rocked again. Couple to keep your eyes on; DE (looking $85 pin) and GS ($185 or $190). ALso watch the usual suspects like AAPL and RIMM and of course GOOG.
I gotta finish my last two chapters of Rule Your Freakin' Retirement tonight for publisher so I'll keep it brief.
This weekend is HUGE, Yanks/Mets, let's go Mets! I know, most of you could care less, you root for other teams, but it's a huge weekend for Waxerino.
Speaking of baseball, you know what sucks about our society? No, its not war, its not starvation, its not teenage pregnancy, or drug abuse. No, none of that, it's that pitchers don't ever go more than 6 innings anymore! It's sad, really. I pitched as a kid and teenager until I threw my arm out and now I can't even reach the freakin' plate, but before I digress, every baseball fan loves it when a pitcher goes 9, fans 11 and gives up 4 hits. This isn't DH vs. no DH argument, there is no argument, pitchers are supposed to go 8 or 9 innings unless they get bombed. Now? Micah Owings on Arizona, who seems to be a better hitter than pitcher, is 5 and 1 and hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in any start. That's ridiculous. And, the excuse is that because of the big salaries the teams are worried about pitchers getting injured. That's nonsense, how many times was Seaver or Palmer, or Goose or a ton of pitchers on the DL back then? I'm betting you had a very similar ratio, or even better. It's a real shame.
But, what will be more of a shame is if the market chops around tomorrow like it did a lot today. Chop days are toughest days to trade cause if you overtrade them you end up stopping out no matter which way you play it. I think next week is gonna be a big directional move. Maybe we get to the new High of Year we've discussed. S & P looks like it wants that 1450s mark and we'll see if I was right about that area being a top of sorts. I guess we could go to 1500s, or beyond. I don't really see it, but ya never know. Unlike pitchers who you know aren't going more than 6 innings, a rally can go on, and on and on and where it stops....no one knows!
See ya manana, let's rock!
Michael WAXIE Parness
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
TICK TOCK...TICK...
This rally is getting long in the tooth, I think its nearing its end. Not willing to out and out step out short yet, but I think we're about there. I thought Russell could see 750, and it might but that would be the top more than likely.
Did anyone notice CORN? It's under $600 and headed to $400s not to far from now. We'll see, but I am sticking to my call for that sucker to be POPPED!
There's a bubble trouble in many areas right now. Let's see which one pops. Meanwhile, the 3-Day Options workshop is ROCKING! Day 2 is Thurday, youc an still sign up for the LIVE 3rd day trading Options ALL DAY and NOTHING but options!
Email me - waxie@trendfund.com if you have an interest.
In the meantime, let's see what shakes out Thursday and go from there. I'm hoping we gap up as I think that would be an easy fade. The way we closed was putrid and so a gap up is almost an automatic short signal unless there is some kind of news that moves us.
I'm beat, so keeping it sweet and sour here tonight. See ya manana!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Did anyone notice CORN? It's under $600 and headed to $400s not to far from now. We'll see, but I am sticking to my call for that sucker to be POPPED!
There's a bubble trouble in many areas right now. Let's see which one pops. Meanwhile, the 3-Day Options workshop is ROCKING! Day 2 is Thurday, youc an still sign up for the LIVE 3rd day trading Options ALL DAY and NOTHING but options!
Email me - waxie@trendfund.com if you have an interest.
In the meantime, let's see what shakes out Thursday and go from there. I'm hoping we gap up as I think that would be an easy fade. The way we closed was putrid and so a gap up is almost an automatic short signal unless there is some kind of news that moves us.
I'm beat, so keeping it sweet and sour here tonight. See ya manana!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
It's OE (Options Exp. week), do you know where your profits are?!!!
OK, little folks, its time to remember why it is that you read my blog, why it is that you even bother to pay any attention to me. Do you remember why?
Because I AM MASTER OF THE MARKET and I know what the hey I am speaking about, babies.
Now, here is it, here it is in plain English.
#1 - did ya all catch that little ENER comet? Wheeeee, it never stops going and going and going and goingggggg!
Yes, I still think it has room to run, but, and this leads into the next topic and one that I will cover EXTENSIVELY in the 3-day Options Workshop YOU need to attend starting tomorrow!
Email me; waxie@trendfund.com and I will get ya signed up in timeeeee!
ENER has a TON of upside, I think, but this is OE and that means that they will likely PIN ACTION (read former blogs from OE last month for some more info, or better yet TAKE THE WORKSHOP!)
Pin action from here on out will define the rest of the week. It should get interesting because a lot of the momentum stocks are pinned right now around strike prices -
RIMM
AAPL
ENER
etc.
We'll be watching for which way they want to lean us. If we get a clue it could really lead to big ka-chingos thursday and friday. That's what I'm checking out.
One tiny one I like here is ICO. They may pin $10 but on the next up move in the coal sector that thing looks poised to see a lot higher. Of course, if coal gets smacked it'll retrace to $7s more than likely, but if it can get some momentum over $10 it should see $15 pretty easily. Remember that a rally drags the tiny ones up last usually, the ones with the least fundemental base. That's usually the last leg of a rally which culminates with a blowoff top day where everything goes up and crazy at once. We haven't had that yet, but I am seeing some irrational buying on momentum stocks now. Watch SOL which reports tomorrow before the open to see how it responds to earnings. YGE should follow its lead after they report. Not a sure thing, but could be a nice tell. The market usually works that way.
In the meantime, I am brain fizzled from searching for apartments. How nuts is this? I was all set to move downtown, NYC. Found an awesome pad, nicer then my mansion over here. BUT, the NYC school system doesn't have any room for new kindergarden kids, which is why I was moving in the first place! And, call the city and what do they tell you? They ain't got no freakin' clue. Man o man alive, I tell ya, the amount of idiocy is mind boggling and mind bending. How do you have a city like NY, which I love love love and yet no one thought to build more schools cause they were too busy building (and giving tax incentives) condos that NO ONE is buying now. Who would buy a condo in this market? You gotta be nuts. Give me 2 years, I'm picking up the pieces, trust me there will be just that - pieces! But, in the meantime, my 5 year old don't have a dang school to go to! Unreal. rrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggggg!
So much for zen, hehe, ah, how quickly it can go returning to da cityyyyy!
BTW, my film, which some clients have seen at various festivals around the country, is playing in NYC end of May for 4 showings. Looks like May 30th and 31st. If you are interested in attending email me at waxie@trendfund.com and I'll give you the details. It's in NYC, so if you live in CA I'd love to have ya, but you can pick up the film at Blockbuster in June!
The film is titled Crazy for Love and it has a great cast. Well worth your viewing time and you can come meet me.
Let's rock this town, folks, let's rock!
*OPTIONS SEMINAR STARTS TOMORROW AT 10 am!!! We have about 50 people so far attending, it's gonna rock!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Because I AM MASTER OF THE MARKET and I know what the hey I am speaking about, babies.
Now, here is it, here it is in plain English.
#1 - did ya all catch that little ENER comet? Wheeeee, it never stops going and going and going and goingggggg!
Yes, I still think it has room to run, but, and this leads into the next topic and one that I will cover EXTENSIVELY in the 3-day Options Workshop YOU need to attend starting tomorrow!
Email me; waxie@trendfund.com and I will get ya signed up in timeeeee!
ENER has a TON of upside, I think, but this is OE and that means that they will likely PIN ACTION (read former blogs from OE last month for some more info, or better yet TAKE THE WORKSHOP!)
Pin action from here on out will define the rest of the week. It should get interesting because a lot of the momentum stocks are pinned right now around strike prices -
RIMM
AAPL
ENER
etc.
We'll be watching for which way they want to lean us. If we get a clue it could really lead to big ka-chingos thursday and friday. That's what I'm checking out.
One tiny one I like here is ICO. They may pin $10 but on the next up move in the coal sector that thing looks poised to see a lot higher. Of course, if coal gets smacked it'll retrace to $7s more than likely, but if it can get some momentum over $10 it should see $15 pretty easily. Remember that a rally drags the tiny ones up last usually, the ones with the least fundemental base. That's usually the last leg of a rally which culminates with a blowoff top day where everything goes up and crazy at once. We haven't had that yet, but I am seeing some irrational buying on momentum stocks now. Watch SOL which reports tomorrow before the open to see how it responds to earnings. YGE should follow its lead after they report. Not a sure thing, but could be a nice tell. The market usually works that way.
In the meantime, I am brain fizzled from searching for apartments. How nuts is this? I was all set to move downtown, NYC. Found an awesome pad, nicer then my mansion over here. BUT, the NYC school system doesn't have any room for new kindergarden kids, which is why I was moving in the first place! And, call the city and what do they tell you? They ain't got no freakin' clue. Man o man alive, I tell ya, the amount of idiocy is mind boggling and mind bending. How do you have a city like NY, which I love love love and yet no one thought to build more schools cause they were too busy building (and giving tax incentives) condos that NO ONE is buying now. Who would buy a condo in this market? You gotta be nuts. Give me 2 years, I'm picking up the pieces, trust me there will be just that - pieces! But, in the meantime, my 5 year old don't have a dang school to go to! Unreal. rrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggggg!
So much for zen, hehe, ah, how quickly it can go returning to da cityyyyy!
BTW, my film, which some clients have seen at various festivals around the country, is playing in NYC end of May for 4 showings. Looks like May 30th and 31st. If you are interested in attending email me at waxie@trendfund.com and I'll give you the details. It's in NYC, so if you live in CA I'd love to have ya, but you can pick up the film at Blockbuster in June!
The film is titled Crazy for Love and it has a great cast. Well worth your viewing time and you can come meet me.
Let's rock this town, folks, let's rock!
*OPTIONS SEMINAR STARTS TOMORROW AT 10 am!!! We have about 50 people so far attending, it's gonna rock!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, May 12, 2008
Back in da saddle againnnnn!
Did you dudes and dudesses see dat comet? Yeah, that was me, flying around in da Yoga zone whilst you all cracked da market's code, right? Man, I REALLY hope you left me with some Ka-chingos! I can sure use some after spending a few days at da Inn at Woodloch, in PA. (Highly recommended) Was very nice to get away from trading, away from da city by the river that runs foul. Away from all the traffic, and the noise and the city that never sleeps, and me who sleeps even less when I'm in the city. Basically, it was good to get away, but now I am BACKKKKKK and ready to RUMBLEEEEEEE. The market is mine, beeeactch, she is my concubine and I will ravage her as though she is a screaming demon begging for mercy! And, if you can figure out what the hey that means, I will donate $50 to your favorite charity.
OK, so, now I am back and I gotta make you guys and gals some ka-chingos, right? I mean, that's what you pay me for, right? You are ALL coming to my toga trading party, I mean my 3-day OPTIONS WORKSHOP this Wed/Thur/Fri, right? I thought so. If you haven't signed up, email me at waxie@trendfund.com and get in the game now.
Shameless plug over and out for the evening.
So, I don't know, I didn't do much today other than drive 4 hours back all zenned out. Kinda sucks driving 4 hours zen, hitting traffic and then sitting in a business meeting where no one really wants to hear about your zenness, ya know?
I did happen to notice that ENER was up over $4 today off my most awesome call as Stock Play of THIS week. That's a very berry nice way to start the week off. Waxie like.
Speaking of like's I want to give my first blog (I think its the 1st, but I don't have time to look back) shout out to Zena and Sharon. They kept me company at Woodloch, kept my publisher unhappy because they gave me the excuse to procrastinate and gave me my first adult pajama party! Coolio. See, and you all thought you had to grow up? Nah, its all just an illusion!
OK, so enough about dat, ya'all, I got a market to rule, babies and it's all for youuuuuu. This is option expiration week, folks and you know this is my favorite week of each month to kick some market butt. Nice day for those poor putrid investors Monday, its always easy when the market goes up. I wasn't around to see it, but I read. I think Tuesday probably is somewhat of a congestion day, and honestly I have to find an apartment this week so I'll be out most of the day. I'll be back Wed. and teaching the workshop (which you will ALL attend, I command you!) and trading Options all day long, my little newbies. So, join me and rejoice.
And, of course, send a prayer out to Bejing, it could and has happened here. We are, after all, part of the same thread. Mother nature does not mess around unfortunately. I had dinner with a Chinese friend (Trendfund.com is going GLOBAL baby! We are selling in CHINA shortly!) and we discussed a lot about culture and just, well, just humans and da truth is, we really are all the same. So, keep it real and be safe. Zen out.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
OK, so, now I am back and I gotta make you guys and gals some ka-chingos, right? I mean, that's what you pay me for, right? You are ALL coming to my toga trading party, I mean my 3-day OPTIONS WORKSHOP this Wed/Thur/Fri, right? I thought so. If you haven't signed up, email me at waxie@trendfund.com and get in the game now.
Shameless plug over and out for the evening.
So, I don't know, I didn't do much today other than drive 4 hours back all zenned out. Kinda sucks driving 4 hours zen, hitting traffic and then sitting in a business meeting where no one really wants to hear about your zenness, ya know?
I did happen to notice that ENER was up over $4 today off my most awesome call as Stock Play of THIS week. That's a very berry nice way to start the week off. Waxie like.
Speaking of like's I want to give my first blog (I think its the 1st, but I don't have time to look back) shout out to Zena and Sharon. They kept me company at Woodloch, kept my publisher unhappy because they gave me the excuse to procrastinate and gave me my first adult pajama party! Coolio. See, and you all thought you had to grow up? Nah, its all just an illusion!
OK, so enough about dat, ya'all, I got a market to rule, babies and it's all for youuuuuu. This is option expiration week, folks and you know this is my favorite week of each month to kick some market butt. Nice day for those poor putrid investors Monday, its always easy when the market goes up. I wasn't around to see it, but I read. I think Tuesday probably is somewhat of a congestion day, and honestly I have to find an apartment this week so I'll be out most of the day. I'll be back Wed. and teaching the workshop (which you will ALL attend, I command you!) and trading Options all day long, my little newbies. So, join me and rejoice.
And, of course, send a prayer out to Bejing, it could and has happened here. We are, after all, part of the same thread. Mother nature does not mess around unfortunately. I had dinner with a Chinese friend (Trendfund.com is going GLOBAL baby! We are selling in CHINA shortly!) and we discussed a lot about culture and just, well, just humans and da truth is, we really are all the same. So, keep it real and be safe. Zen out.
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Nice bouncey pooo!
As suspected 1400 became nice support off the gap down and we then zoomed once we broke back above it! Nice trading day for da clients, very nice indeed!
Our OPTIONS are just completely smoking! We caught NYX late day today for nice jing, I think it sees $75 then maybe $80 near term, we'll see. DRYS awesome. MELI awesome. We are just completely rocking the houseeee! If you haven't signed up for the OPTIONS 3-day online seminar with the LIVE online trading all-day options, you need to do so now! Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll send you the right wayyyyy!
In the meantime, CSCO reported so-so numbers, DIS reported good #s. They are all saying now that DIS #s mean that consumers are still spending. OKEY DOKEY girl from moskokieeeeee! Hehe, thats funny. April was one of the worst months in the HISTORY of our economy for bankruptcies, but people are spending money left and right! Ah, huh, sure they are.
I'm not, I've cut back tremendously. I want to have something for a rainy day cause that rainy day is is here right now. This is the disconnect in the marketplace and its always interesting because logically we should not be rallying, yet we are. At some point, though, water does indeed find its right level. This market, as I said it would, is rallying, but the best thing about the rally is its gonna set up a really nice shorting opp. VERY soon. All the pundits are now jumping on the bull ship and so I suspect that at some pt near term we're gonna hit a real brick wall and fall off this glass horse. I hope I'm wrong, I love being wrong when I'm bearish. The higher we go, the better the trading, but I doubt I am gonna be. Years of experience tells me that this type of rally is the type that usually ends ugly. Low volume rallies in a bear market. FNM #s were horrid, they are diluting the stock and yet the stock rallied hard and went way green. That tells me that we are once again in that wonderful place they call - irrational exuberance! Love that Greenie guy (the original GREENIE!).
The stuff I like now are the laggards. What happens in this type of market is that the leaders get extended (did you see AAPL early day, thats an extended stock same with GOOG and BIDU). So, they pick up the laggards that don't have any real fundementals to support them longer term, and they drive them up as momentum squeezes. We saw that today with CSIQ, SOl, and a lot of the Ags. Thats a sign that we are watching for a top. Now, I don't think that happens til at least 1450 - 1460 on the S & P, but we're at around 1420 here, so thats a couple or three good days (or less) so we're not that far off. It is possible we get to 1500 on the S & P. So, we'll have to see, but in the meantime let's just go with the flow. This is the thing about trading, you really have to forget logic and your opinions and just go with it. Don't fight a market like this, figure out whats lagging and go WITH it.
NYX has lagged it, they blew out earnings, the stock SHOULD go higher. How high? I don't rightly know, so you take it and you set a stop and you trail it as it goes and you lock in profits at resistences like $75 and then $80 and you see if you can ride it higher. Worst case you have a good risk/reward situation because you are setting an initial STOP, meaning your absolute worst case loss is limited, while NYX could concievably go to $100s!
That, my friends, is what trading is all about! Good risk vs. reward!
BIG Ka-chingos, and small ka-changos!
RULE!
WAXIE
Our OPTIONS are just completely smoking! We caught NYX late day today for nice jing, I think it sees $75 then maybe $80 near term, we'll see. DRYS awesome. MELI awesome. We are just completely rocking the houseeee! If you haven't signed up for the OPTIONS 3-day online seminar with the LIVE online trading all-day options, you need to do so now! Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'll send you the right wayyyyy!
In the meantime, CSCO reported so-so numbers, DIS reported good #s. They are all saying now that DIS #s mean that consumers are still spending. OKEY DOKEY girl from moskokieeeeee! Hehe, thats funny. April was one of the worst months in the HISTORY of our economy for bankruptcies, but people are spending money left and right! Ah, huh, sure they are.
I'm not, I've cut back tremendously. I want to have something for a rainy day cause that rainy day is is here right now. This is the disconnect in the marketplace and its always interesting because logically we should not be rallying, yet we are. At some point, though, water does indeed find its right level. This market, as I said it would, is rallying, but the best thing about the rally is its gonna set up a really nice shorting opp. VERY soon. All the pundits are now jumping on the bull ship and so I suspect that at some pt near term we're gonna hit a real brick wall and fall off this glass horse. I hope I'm wrong, I love being wrong when I'm bearish. The higher we go, the better the trading, but I doubt I am gonna be. Years of experience tells me that this type of rally is the type that usually ends ugly. Low volume rallies in a bear market. FNM #s were horrid, they are diluting the stock and yet the stock rallied hard and went way green. That tells me that we are once again in that wonderful place they call - irrational exuberance! Love that Greenie guy (the original GREENIE!).
The stuff I like now are the laggards. What happens in this type of market is that the leaders get extended (did you see AAPL early day, thats an extended stock same with GOOG and BIDU). So, they pick up the laggards that don't have any real fundementals to support them longer term, and they drive them up as momentum squeezes. We saw that today with CSIQ, SOl, and a lot of the Ags. Thats a sign that we are watching for a top. Now, I don't think that happens til at least 1450 - 1460 on the S & P, but we're at around 1420 here, so thats a couple or three good days (or less) so we're not that far off. It is possible we get to 1500 on the S & P. So, we'll have to see, but in the meantime let's just go with the flow. This is the thing about trading, you really have to forget logic and your opinions and just go with it. Don't fight a market like this, figure out whats lagging and go WITH it.
NYX has lagged it, they blew out earnings, the stock SHOULD go higher. How high? I don't rightly know, so you take it and you set a stop and you trail it as it goes and you lock in profits at resistences like $75 and then $80 and you see if you can ride it higher. Worst case you have a good risk/reward situation because you are setting an initial STOP, meaning your absolute worst case loss is limited, while NYX could concievably go to $100s!
That, my friends, is what trading is all about! Good risk vs. reward!
BIG Ka-chingos, and small ka-changos!
RULE!
WAXIE
Monday, May 05, 2008
A new week, the beat goes on, and on...
OK< we'll see, but as I stated last week here the week after FOMC week is almost always a reversal, at least early in the week, of the action the week before. Since we rallied post-FOMC it made/makes sense we take a pause. It'll be interesting to see how this week plays out, there's not much news, only some earnings that mean something. CSCO reports Tuesday after the close. I have no insight into CSCO earnings, so I won't even dain to make a prediction.
MSFT walking away from YHOO deal caught a lot of people by surprise, including me, but thats why we don't try to play seer. Market was annoyed by the news and it contributed to the days action, though today was the LOWEST volume of the year, which is bullish near term as we pulled back on lower volume then we went up last week. That's usually bullish.
I have some insights I'm going to share with clients tomorrow about the way this earnings season has played out and how I think it should help us make some money moving forward. Suffice to say, the hot get hotter. It's been that way for a while now, but its becoming increasing apparent that this is a very narrow market. Financials led the way down today while momentum stocks like GOOG, BIDU and all the AGS, the hottest group on the planet were on fire once again.
Off topic, but I LOVE Corn short here. Symbol is /zcn8 for anyone who trades futures. The issue with playing futures like this is that if you're going to ride it its hard to do unless you don't use margin, or use very little. Otherwise you end up getting whipsawed again and again. Trust me, I know, I've had it happen a few times. Sucks when it happens and then you are right, but that's the same with anything in life, I guess.
Meanwhile, I think in this market it pays to be mostly cash, still. So, that's the way we're playing it. Some interesting earnings this week CSCO, PCLN. PCLN has beaten and guided higher last two quarters and stock has zoomed, but its been downgraded lately so we'll see if it beats again. The concern is that with the airlines consolidating the online bookers will lose some/a lot of business. Guess we'll find out.
OK, so back to corn.
About a year ago I said CORN would rock, which it clearly has. It's gone at least 175%ish in that time. I thought Corn would go nuts because of ETHANOL. Farmers were given huge subsidaries to grow corn, so much so that corn "land" meaning they are using land previously earmarked for other crops just to get the kickbacks.
OK, so fast forward to the current state of affairs. A REPUBLICAN Congresswoman is submitting a proposal to freeze the plan on Ethanol. Now Bush and O'Bama REALLY stupidly support Ethanol. Ethanol is a very very very poor idea, it was a political stop-gap and it has no real benefits to our country. What it does is line the pockets of some politicians (the farmers have a VERY powerful lobby), and the farmers who are taking advantage of these ludicrous benefits.
Further still, there is a supposed food crisis in many parts of the world, and as the price of food rises it makes it more difficult for the poor to eat.
Frankly, its rather disgusting. Now today several countries want to have a RICE CARTEL!
It's insane, truly insane. This isn't oil, you can't eat oil. This is FOOD. You don't have cartel's on FOOD! Insanity. Look, I like making money as much as the next dude or dudess, but not if I'm driving people to their graves out of starvation.
Lest I digress, I believe that there is going to be a backlash on Ethanol. Anyone with 1/2 a brain knows Ethanol is not any answer to our reliance on oil. Like anything else (look at Real Estate) there's now a glut of corn out there. Drive the midwest and you tell me if there is a corn shortage, its fantasy. At least it is today, Ethanol, if the current bills were to stay put, would need almost all the corn grown to support it each year. So, THEN there would be a true food shortage. And, as you take away land that was used for other food, and for cotton and other commodities, then you create a situation where you have a shortage of EVERYTHING. And, that, my friends, is just another example of how lobbies in this country are dangerous. When one group has the power to buy legislation, it creates these kinds of situations that put the vast majority at risk.
In the meantime, I do think a backlash is coming shortly and I think if ANYTHING happens with ethanol, in terms of a pause, then corn will crumble pretty fast. I think corn would fall back to the 400 to 450 area at best, and potentially a lot further. Corn was the low 400s to start this year, so going back there, or more, is pretty easy if there is even a hint that ethanol production is going to slow.
Of course, if the current plan ploughs through then that's another story, but I really can't see "us" being that stupid. Never mind, I guess its possible, ok, you're right!
OK, so if you have a mind to short corn, I would use $650 as a very loose stop, which is why you can't leverage it too much, and manage it as/if it goes your way. I assume most people here aren't taking this trade, but I am throwing it out there. I think near term corn should see $550 area minimum to the downside, but keep in mind that like oil and other commodities these things are all over the place and they get squeezed all the time. Corn could open limit up one day, or two or three if the news goes against you and you could get CRUSHED. So, keep that in mind.
Anyhow, that's it for tonight, I'm on a roll as far as the ridiculousness of some things in our society. This is one of them thats a real thorn in the side because it has to do with feeding people who don't have the means to support themselves, and greed in taking advantage of them. It's easy for most of us to not "connect" with our fellows when we don't see them around us. It's kinda like a video game, it dehumanizes the people we see on TV starving, it makes it hard to relate. It's quite sad. I like to take a moment or two a day and throw some pleasant thoughts and well wishes out there for those that struggle. We are very lucky in this country, most of us, and certainly most anyone who is reading this now. We don't have to worry, knock on wood, about these types of things. I don't want to get all hokey, but I do think things like Karma make sense. What goes around usually does, in my experience, come around. We often make decisions without really looking at the impact on the world around us. Think about it, and have a good night!
Happy Trading on Tuesday!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
MSFT walking away from YHOO deal caught a lot of people by surprise, including me, but thats why we don't try to play seer. Market was annoyed by the news and it contributed to the days action, though today was the LOWEST volume of the year, which is bullish near term as we pulled back on lower volume then we went up last week. That's usually bullish.
I have some insights I'm going to share with clients tomorrow about the way this earnings season has played out and how I think it should help us make some money moving forward. Suffice to say, the hot get hotter. It's been that way for a while now, but its becoming increasing apparent that this is a very narrow market. Financials led the way down today while momentum stocks like GOOG, BIDU and all the AGS, the hottest group on the planet were on fire once again.
Off topic, but I LOVE Corn short here. Symbol is /zcn8 for anyone who trades futures. The issue with playing futures like this is that if you're going to ride it its hard to do unless you don't use margin, or use very little. Otherwise you end up getting whipsawed again and again. Trust me, I know, I've had it happen a few times. Sucks when it happens and then you are right, but that's the same with anything in life, I guess.
Meanwhile, I think in this market it pays to be mostly cash, still. So, that's the way we're playing it. Some interesting earnings this week CSCO, PCLN. PCLN has beaten and guided higher last two quarters and stock has zoomed, but its been downgraded lately so we'll see if it beats again. The concern is that with the airlines consolidating the online bookers will lose some/a lot of business. Guess we'll find out.
OK, so back to corn.
About a year ago I said CORN would rock, which it clearly has. It's gone at least 175%ish in that time. I thought Corn would go nuts because of ETHANOL. Farmers were given huge subsidaries to grow corn, so much so that corn "land" meaning they are using land previously earmarked for other crops just to get the kickbacks.
OK, so fast forward to the current state of affairs. A REPUBLICAN Congresswoman is submitting a proposal to freeze the plan on Ethanol. Now Bush and O'Bama REALLY stupidly support Ethanol. Ethanol is a very very very poor idea, it was a political stop-gap and it has no real benefits to our country. What it does is line the pockets of some politicians (the farmers have a VERY powerful lobby), and the farmers who are taking advantage of these ludicrous benefits.
Further still, there is a supposed food crisis in many parts of the world, and as the price of food rises it makes it more difficult for the poor to eat.
Frankly, its rather disgusting. Now today several countries want to have a RICE CARTEL!
It's insane, truly insane. This isn't oil, you can't eat oil. This is FOOD. You don't have cartel's on FOOD! Insanity. Look, I like making money as much as the next dude or dudess, but not if I'm driving people to their graves out of starvation.
Lest I digress, I believe that there is going to be a backlash on Ethanol. Anyone with 1/2 a brain knows Ethanol is not any answer to our reliance on oil. Like anything else (look at Real Estate) there's now a glut of corn out there. Drive the midwest and you tell me if there is a corn shortage, its fantasy. At least it is today, Ethanol, if the current bills were to stay put, would need almost all the corn grown to support it each year. So, THEN there would be a true food shortage. And, as you take away land that was used for other food, and for cotton and other commodities, then you create a situation where you have a shortage of EVERYTHING. And, that, my friends, is just another example of how lobbies in this country are dangerous. When one group has the power to buy legislation, it creates these kinds of situations that put the vast majority at risk.
In the meantime, I do think a backlash is coming shortly and I think if ANYTHING happens with ethanol, in terms of a pause, then corn will crumble pretty fast. I think corn would fall back to the 400 to 450 area at best, and potentially a lot further. Corn was the low 400s to start this year, so going back there, or more, is pretty easy if there is even a hint that ethanol production is going to slow.
Of course, if the current plan ploughs through then that's another story, but I really can't see "us" being that stupid. Never mind, I guess its possible, ok, you're right!
OK, so if you have a mind to short corn, I would use $650 as a very loose stop, which is why you can't leverage it too much, and manage it as/if it goes your way. I assume most people here aren't taking this trade, but I am throwing it out there. I think near term corn should see $550 area minimum to the downside, but keep in mind that like oil and other commodities these things are all over the place and they get squeezed all the time. Corn could open limit up one day, or two or three if the news goes against you and you could get CRUSHED. So, keep that in mind.
Anyhow, that's it for tonight, I'm on a roll as far as the ridiculousness of some things in our society. This is one of them thats a real thorn in the side because it has to do with feeding people who don't have the means to support themselves, and greed in taking advantage of them. It's easy for most of us to not "connect" with our fellows when we don't see them around us. It's kinda like a video game, it dehumanizes the people we see on TV starving, it makes it hard to relate. It's quite sad. I like to take a moment or two a day and throw some pleasant thoughts and well wishes out there for those that struggle. We are very lucky in this country, most of us, and certainly most anyone who is reading this now. We don't have to worry, knock on wood, about these types of things. I don't want to get all hokey, but I do think things like Karma make sense. What goes around usually does, in my experience, come around. We often make decisions without really looking at the impact on the world around us. Think about it, and have a good night!
Happy Trading on Tuesday!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Chugga Chugga Chugga Chugga - Choo Choo!
And the beat goes on! Bad economic news, market keeps chugging higher!
As I stated yesterday I thought we would go up today, probably tomorrow. Next week will be the litmus test. I think we get a pullback more than likely next week. So, enjoy this while it lasts. We sure are!
Today we had POT for about $10 from mid-day! Rocking! We tried to short GOOG late and got hammered a bit, but thats why you use stops! A $10 winner outweighs a $3 loser!
Ka-chingo!
Friday if we are up throughout the day watch for a late day profit taking selloff into the close. Friday's been pretty consistent in terms of reversing the day or week late day. Traders like to square up. Right now the bias is clearly up. The market isn't rationale, in fact its downright insane sometimes, this being one of those times. But hey, why fight it? They seem intent on pushing GOOG to $600s, AAPL to $200s, RIMM (we own it!) to $140s maybe.
I'll tell ya when I'll be truly impressed with this move, if we go up and hold next week. I said we should see High of the Year and it looks like we want to try that mark. That's about 200ish points above. S & P is fast approaching the 1450 - 1460 level where I think it'll be very safe to start shorting again. The market ALWAYS overshoots to the upside, and always underestimates the downside action. That's the nature of the beast and I don't expect that to stop now. What inevitably happens with this kind of move is that people at some point realize that things aren't all rosey and then they look around and realize they are standing on a ledge and they have no support below, and its like "WHOOPS, bye byeeeeeee!"
Dollar is rallying, as called. Yes, we are going to have FOREX shortly, so stay tuned, the website is almost ready! When it is we'll send an alert and we'll be ready to rule the forex market, just like we rule the stock and options markets!
Next week's Option Seminar and then June's LIVE week seminar are filling up quickly, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com if you are interested. The NJ seminar only has a limited amount of attendees and its MONEY BACK GUARANTEED!* so book it now!
Watch the commodities for a late day bounce if we do tank a bit. Oil looks ready to finally restest $100ish area. As long as the dollar rallies its headed straight there. Will it get there? Probably, but we'll see! In the end, I think investors are getting way ahead of themselves. This is a bubble forming and it's gonna pop again! And, folks, thats what makes a good trading market!
And, this market is indeed VERY good trading, very good indeed!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
As I stated yesterday I thought we would go up today, probably tomorrow. Next week will be the litmus test. I think we get a pullback more than likely next week. So, enjoy this while it lasts. We sure are!
Today we had POT for about $10 from mid-day! Rocking! We tried to short GOOG late and got hammered a bit, but thats why you use stops! A $10 winner outweighs a $3 loser!
Ka-chingo!
Friday if we are up throughout the day watch for a late day profit taking selloff into the close. Friday's been pretty consistent in terms of reversing the day or week late day. Traders like to square up. Right now the bias is clearly up. The market isn't rationale, in fact its downright insane sometimes, this being one of those times. But hey, why fight it? They seem intent on pushing GOOG to $600s, AAPL to $200s, RIMM (we own it!) to $140s maybe.
I'll tell ya when I'll be truly impressed with this move, if we go up and hold next week. I said we should see High of the Year and it looks like we want to try that mark. That's about 200ish points above. S & P is fast approaching the 1450 - 1460 level where I think it'll be very safe to start shorting again. The market ALWAYS overshoots to the upside, and always underestimates the downside action. That's the nature of the beast and I don't expect that to stop now. What inevitably happens with this kind of move is that people at some point realize that things aren't all rosey and then they look around and realize they are standing on a ledge and they have no support below, and its like "WHOOPS, bye byeeeeeee!"
Dollar is rallying, as called. Yes, we are going to have FOREX shortly, so stay tuned, the website is almost ready! When it is we'll send an alert and we'll be ready to rule the forex market, just like we rule the stock and options markets!
Next week's Option Seminar and then June's LIVE week seminar are filling up quickly, please email me - waxie@trendfund.com if you are interested. The NJ seminar only has a limited amount of attendees and its MONEY BACK GUARANTEED!* so book it now!
Watch the commodities for a late day bounce if we do tank a bit. Oil looks ready to finally restest $100ish area. As long as the dollar rallies its headed straight there. Will it get there? Probably, but we'll see! In the end, I think investors are getting way ahead of themselves. This is a bubble forming and it's gonna pop again! And, folks, thats what makes a good trading market!
And, this market is indeed VERY good trading, very good indeed!
RULE!
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
FOMC and you!
OK, so we ran up into the FOMC, which is the big time trend and then we sold the hell off when the Fed did what everyone thought they would. Typical sell the news scenario. NICE NICE FADE, my favorite trend! Very powerful!
OK, so today should tell what we gonna end the week on. I would look at the open as a fading opp. Remember that next week we usually fade what we do post FOMC the week before. So, if we die into end of the week then next week should be an up week. Conversely, if we rally this week here we should sell off next week.
I think we still could get High of Year before turning seriously down, but we shall see. 13,000 is key, we hit it and then got slammed Wednesday. We'll have to reclaim it and hold it to see 13,200s or higher and hit my targets. If not then we will head back to the 12,500 area in a jiff. Financials still feel VERY heavy here. I am hoping they rally a bit more as they wills et up for a very very sweet short from there. My favs remain - FNM, C, SOV (looks below $5 soon).
Keep on rocking and keep on trending!
FYI - OPTIONS 3 day online seminar is next week. You have time, but I want to send everyone who signs up some free DVDs on OPTIONS!!!
I have a really nice play, I think, for this week. Been on fire, lets see what shakes!
If you are interested in the Options Trader service to get the new play(s), or you want to sign up for the Options 3 day workshop online and 1 day live options trading, please email me directly
waxie@trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Waxie
OK, so today should tell what we gonna end the week on. I would look at the open as a fading opp. Remember that next week we usually fade what we do post FOMC the week before. So, if we die into end of the week then next week should be an up week. Conversely, if we rally this week here we should sell off next week.
I think we still could get High of Year before turning seriously down, but we shall see. 13,000 is key, we hit it and then got slammed Wednesday. We'll have to reclaim it and hold it to see 13,200s or higher and hit my targets. If not then we will head back to the 12,500 area in a jiff. Financials still feel VERY heavy here. I am hoping they rally a bit more as they wills et up for a very very sweet short from there. My favs remain - FNM, C, SOV (looks below $5 soon).
Keep on rocking and keep on trending!
FYI - OPTIONS 3 day online seminar is next week. You have time, but I want to send everyone who signs up some free DVDs on OPTIONS!!!
I have a really nice play, I think, for this week. Been on fire, lets see what shakes!
If you are interested in the Options Trader service to get the new play(s), or you want to sign up for the Options 3 day workshop online and 1 day live options trading, please email me directly
waxie@trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Waxie
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
FOMC DAY = JUDGEMENT DAY!
FOMC day Wednesday (not Tues as is the norm). It's judgement day.I think the Fed does nothing and talks a lot about inflation. Ithink they key on the dollar and making that stronger. I think the market might initially sell off, but then bounce and then iffy. I think you should fade the FOMC, its one of my favorite trends and it is a stellar performer. Market is choppy heading into it. I think regardless of what we do here we're due for a pretty big pause. I would watch tech, though, thats the one place getting a lot of fund money now. GOOG, BIDU, RIMM, AAPL all look higher here. GOOG might want to test $600 near term. I think commodities are gonna get a big time pullback. Oil,I think, falls to $100 area soon. we shall see, not much to report tonight other than we kicked butt again! Options Trader serice is ROCKING! We had FSLR near the LOD and got about $4 on the calls! Sick returnssss!
RULE!
Waxie
RULE!
Waxie
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Early this week...
FOMC Tuesday. Normally trend is HIGHER into the meeting. We're right dead smack at 1400 on S & P resistence so it'll be interesting. I think we have to lean higher into FOMC. I'm leaning to the Fed doing NOTHING. If they do, I think it sparks a rally. I think the read on that would be that the all clear signal has happened. I think thats a mistake, but that's ok, it don't matter what I think past the day. And, most people feel that the Fed will cut another 25 bp. I won't be surprised whatsoever, just think good shot they don't.
Fed needs to be very careful here. If the market rallies hard, which I think there's a decent shot of, then they are probably setting the market up for a serious fall later on. Election years, though, are very volatile often and obviously the incumbent party would love to be able to say "you see, we fixed the economy!".
I obviously feel that absurd, but again, thats one of those predictions I hope I'm wrong about as I would love nothing more than for the market to go to 15,000 this year. That'd be sweet! Just creates a better trading environment, thank ya very much!
Interesting/volatile earnings this week upcoming;
V, MA, FSLR, AKAM, and others.
FSLR should move $30 or $50 either way off earnings. Remember last quarter? If I recall it went about $70 higher off earnings. They should blow out again, so what then happens? Is it priced in, or does it zoom another $70? Hmm, when you guessing that means you just watch and enjoy the ride!
Meanwhile, I think fading the open Monday should be ok and we'll discuss the FOMC Monday night, stay tuned!
RULE!
*MANY MANY want to take the Options seminar, and the June LIVE trading seminar. I will be sending an alert on BOTH early this week. If you want the info, please email me ASAP at -
waxie@trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Fed needs to be very careful here. If the market rallies hard, which I think there's a decent shot of, then they are probably setting the market up for a serious fall later on. Election years, though, are very volatile often and obviously the incumbent party would love to be able to say "you see, we fixed the economy!".
I obviously feel that absurd, but again, thats one of those predictions I hope I'm wrong about as I would love nothing more than for the market to go to 15,000 this year. That'd be sweet! Just creates a better trading environment, thank ya very much!
Interesting/volatile earnings this week upcoming;
V, MA, FSLR, AKAM, and others.
FSLR should move $30 or $50 either way off earnings. Remember last quarter? If I recall it went about $70 higher off earnings. They should blow out again, so what then happens? Is it priced in, or does it zoom another $70? Hmm, when you guessing that means you just watch and enjoy the ride!
Meanwhile, I think fading the open Monday should be ok and we'll discuss the FOMC Monday night, stay tuned!
RULE!
*MANY MANY want to take the Options seminar, and the June LIVE trading seminar. I will be sending an alert on BOTH early this week. If you want the info, please email me ASAP at -
waxie@trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Friday, April 25, 2008
HIGH OF YEAR?
I said a few weeks ago that although I am definately BEARISH longer term, that I felt that we could get a nice rally now and see the Highs of the Year so far. Well, we are just about there after today, I think about 300 or so points away from such. We should get there, perhaps next week with the FOMC on Tuesday. The consensus is the Fed cuts another 25 bp. I'm not so sure. I think the Fed now is interested in strengthening the dollar and to do that they need to stop making cuts. They could cut 25 bp and say no more, or they could pause now and the dollar will fly short term. I think there's a good shot they do not cut at all. I may short the Euro Monday and have a tight stop into the FOMC so that I can't get hurt if they do cut. I think the risk/reward is good because if they don't cut then the dollar should FLY!
Now, back to the regular markets - they are really buying up the financials here in a counter trend move. That's great, we are smoking all around, the Options Trader service I do is just INSANE. I'm going to tally the last couple weeks next week and post it here if I can, but its really just crushing the markets here. We had another and another and another double this week. Don't hold me to it, but I think I called about 5 100+% winners in the last week or so. Maybe more, its pretty scary! If you played them, congrats, you are simply SMOKIN' CRACKKKKKKKKKKK!
OK, so we have a bunch of people who want to know about the 3-Day ALL OPTIONS min-seminar. Here is potentially the details, I'll send out an email over the weekend to confirm either way, but here are the details, if you are interested in being part of what I think is going to be a spectacular event, then email me directly at - waxie@trendfund.com.
In this market I think playing Options gives you the best leverage to maximize your profits if you use proper money management. Things are moving fast and furious and in huge chunks and that means leveraging your account with options allows you to play even the highest priced stocks.
This week some of the trades we had (I'm trying to remember them all so it doesn't seem biased as though I am only listing the winners, we did have a loser or two as well, fyi) -
FXI calls = went more than a double (100%+) in two days
SOV puts = went almost a TRIPLE (200%) in two days
V calls = went at least a double here now (100%+) in a few days. We sold 1/2 at the open today near the days peak!
WY calls (called yesterday) = went about 50% in a day so far!
AXP calls sold for a breakeven or very small loss intraday yesterday before earnings
TEX calls sold for small profit or break even intraday before earnings
CMP calls sold for a double plus (100%+) in about a week
YHOO calls still in and down on *Today added the $25 puts to now have a strangle on into the news this weekend*
SOHU calls TODAY went roughly 25% intraday ($6.70 to $8.60) and we sold them at the close. Bought around 11 am, sold end of day near the top!
Now, there's no guarantees in life or trading, but we have been crushing the options market, and next week there are some SERIOUS trades to make. During earnings season stocks move violently both ways, that's the best possible scenario for playing options sucessfully.
Below is the information on the 3-Day Options seminar, I suggest you take advantage of this opportunity. Either way I suggest you sign up immediately for the Options Trader service. I've been calling a TON of options plays and as stated the calls are pretty stout, to say the least!
If you wish to sign up for either one, please email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
or go to the site yourself and you can sign up for Options Trader service. Please note that the price will increase on MAY 1st. So, you need to sign up now to be grandfathered into the current price (we'll be sending out a 3 and 6 month offer and an annual membership offer).
3-DAY OPTIONS SEMINAR -
Cost is $595 for non-members, $495 for members.
Class will encompass the following;
Every signup will get the Intro to Options DVD and the Advanced Options DVD and the Playing Trends with Options DVD (if that exists)
Day 1 = Intro to options, options strategies and setting up an account to trade
Intermediate Options, options strategies for the short term trader, the medium term trader, and the swing trader
Advanced Options including credit spreads, The "Greeks" and protecting your investments using options
Day 2 = LIVE Q & A session relating to the days trading as it happens. What trades would make good options plays, what wouldn't. Setting up a watchlist of stocks to potential trade with options for day traders, short term/intermediate term traders and swing traders/investors
Day 3 = LIVE TRADING DAY ALL DAY = 8:00 am until 5 pm
with Michael "Waxie" Parness in an exclusive "Trading Room"
They can pay for this and for the NJ seminar and total is $2495.00
Over a $250 savings!
I strongly urge you guys and gals to sign up for these seminars. This market is a great trading market, and I suggest you take advantage of it NOW!
OK, now that I have spent a ton of time selling you on the idea of trading OPTIONS, let's suffice to say that I still think being cash rich here and trading shorter term is the way to be. This rally has some legs and I stick to my call as stated above about us seeing the Highs of the Year more than likely short term. The best thing is, they will overshoot to the upside, they always do and it'll set us up to trade them down for a bit, and then up, and then down, etc. That's what they call TRADING, babies, that's what they call Trading!
RULE and have a GREAT weekend! I'm moving in early May so if I don't post here it's cause I'm dealing with a lot to get everything together the next 3 weeks. I'm sure many of you can relate, it ain't easy moving with 2 little girls and one big boy (me!).
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Now, back to the regular markets - they are really buying up the financials here in a counter trend move. That's great, we are smoking all around, the Options Trader service I do is just INSANE. I'm going to tally the last couple weeks next week and post it here if I can, but its really just crushing the markets here. We had another and another and another double this week. Don't hold me to it, but I think I called about 5 100+% winners in the last week or so. Maybe more, its pretty scary! If you played them, congrats, you are simply SMOKIN' CRACKKKKKKKKKKK!
OK, so we have a bunch of people who want to know about the 3-Day ALL OPTIONS min-seminar. Here is potentially the details, I'll send out an email over the weekend to confirm either way, but here are the details, if you are interested in being part of what I think is going to be a spectacular event, then email me directly at - waxie@trendfund.com.
In this market I think playing Options gives you the best leverage to maximize your profits if you use proper money management. Things are moving fast and furious and in huge chunks and that means leveraging your account with options allows you to play even the highest priced stocks.
This week some of the trades we had (I'm trying to remember them all so it doesn't seem biased as though I am only listing the winners, we did have a loser or two as well, fyi) -
FXI calls = went more than a double (100%+) in two days
SOV puts = went almost a TRIPLE (200%) in two days
V calls = went at least a double here now (100%+) in a few days. We sold 1/2 at the open today near the days peak!
WY calls (called yesterday) = went about 50% in a day so far!
AXP calls sold for a breakeven or very small loss intraday yesterday before earnings
TEX calls sold for small profit or break even intraday before earnings
CMP calls sold for a double plus (100%+) in about a week
YHOO calls still in and down on *Today added the $25 puts to now have a strangle on into the news this weekend*
SOHU calls TODAY went roughly 25% intraday ($6.70 to $8.60) and we sold them at the close. Bought around 11 am, sold end of day near the top!
Now, there's no guarantees in life or trading, but we have been crushing the options market, and next week there are some SERIOUS trades to make. During earnings season stocks move violently both ways, that's the best possible scenario for playing options sucessfully.
Below is the information on the 3-Day Options seminar, I suggest you take advantage of this opportunity. Either way I suggest you sign up immediately for the Options Trader service. I've been calling a TON of options plays and as stated the calls are pretty stout, to say the least!
If you wish to sign up for either one, please email me at - waxie@trendfund.com
or go to the site yourself and you can sign up for Options Trader service. Please note that the price will increase on MAY 1st. So, you need to sign up now to be grandfathered into the current price (we'll be sending out a 3 and 6 month offer and an annual membership offer).
3-DAY OPTIONS SEMINAR -
Cost is $595 for non-members, $495 for members.
Class will encompass the following;
Every signup will get the Intro to Options DVD and the Advanced Options DVD and the Playing Trends with Options DVD (if that exists)
Day 1 = Intro to options, options strategies and setting up an account to trade
Intermediate Options, options strategies for the short term trader, the medium term trader, and the swing trader
Advanced Options including credit spreads, The "Greeks" and protecting your investments using options
Day 2 = LIVE Q & A session relating to the days trading as it happens. What trades would make good options plays, what wouldn't. Setting up a watchlist of stocks to potential trade with options for day traders, short term/intermediate term traders and swing traders/investors
Day 3 = LIVE TRADING DAY ALL DAY = 8:00 am until 5 pm
with Michael "Waxie" Parness in an exclusive "Trading Room"
They can pay for this and for the NJ seminar and total is $2495.00
Over a $250 savings!
I strongly urge you guys and gals to sign up for these seminars. This market is a great trading market, and I suggest you take advantage of it NOW!
OK, now that I have spent a ton of time selling you on the idea of trading OPTIONS, let's suffice to say that I still think being cash rich here and trading shorter term is the way to be. This rally has some legs and I stick to my call as stated above about us seeing the Highs of the Year more than likely short term. The best thing is, they will overshoot to the upside, they always do and it'll set us up to trade them down for a bit, and then up, and then down, etc. That's what they call TRADING, babies, that's what they call Trading!
RULE and have a GREAT weekend! I'm moving in early May so if I don't post here it's cause I'm dealing with a lot to get everything together the next 3 weeks. I'm sure many of you can relate, it ain't easy moving with 2 little girls and one big boy (me!).
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Ka-chingos for keeps!
That was actually going to be the title of my 1st book (Rule the Freakin' Markets, St.Martin's Press was what it eventually was titled). It's a horrible title, don't ya think? Thankfully my pitch prevailed and an International best seller was born!
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, or back in the Trendfund.com chatroom, we are simply CRUSHING THIS MARKET!
FXI calls from 2 days ago = another doubler!
We nailed MBI for $2.00 on a $10.80 stock! We've long the SOV June $7.50 puts from .40 as I've been short that thing for us since nearly $11 and I still stay it sees sub-$5 soon enough. The financials are NOT bottomed, I can't take listening to CNBC every day and every day hearing some complete and utter FOOL say they have and you should buy. ABK today showed why not, once again. STOP IT ALREADY! PLEASE! If you are buying bank stocks here you are so out of your freakin' mind its ridiculous.
You don't want to short them? OK, fine, cool, but don't buy them, pleaseeeeeee! They have a LONG way to go DOWN! Period, end of story. Why in the world and how in the world can anyone honestly think that C is a buy here? I don't care if it goes up, you're nuts to buy it. Whatever, I just really can't take it sometimes listening to the nonsense the pundits put forth and try to justify.
OK, enough, it don't matter, I am sticking to the plan of picking spots and not getting attached to anything either way here. We go up and down like a rollercoaster every day, there's just no reason to hold a lot of positions overnight. It'll be interesting to see what AAPL does off earnings. Frankly, they may buy it back up but I think eventually it'll work itself back down to the $120s or $130s. But, its a cult stock and as such it may see $200s before that happens. I certainly am not getting in front of it until it shows me that it wants to go down for real. For now its the type of stock investors look at as "safe" because obviously its a well run company and you can justify owning it if you are a fund manager.
AMZN #s were putrid. First glance they looked ok, but as always the margins are gonna kill it for now.
Does anyone else but me get tired of hearing what USED TO BE good fund managers have to say? Is it really news that Bill Miller is bullish on banks and has AMZN as one of his top holdings? I mean, when was the last time he was right on anything? If I'm not mistaken the guy said to buy ABK and MBI when they were $15ish. How's he doing? There are a lot of bull market geniuses, trying to pick bottoms and buying ABK and MBI does not impress me, sorry. Having AMZN as a top holding doesn't impress me either. Let's stop looking to guys who have been crushed call wise lately as gurus. Same goes with Abby Joseph. She's wonderful if the market goes straight up, but she's absolutely atrocious when we go down, just as most fund managers are.
And, just as I am when I get too biased one way or another. That's why we try to stay NEUTRAL and view each day as a new opportunity for da Ka-chingos!
Thursday should be interesting. MSFT reports after the close and we hear every day some praise for the company. They should beat handily, but the stock is up a lot the last couple weeks and seems to have a ceiling around $35. I suspect it'll be $32s by the close, so do you really want to take a shot they beat when the upside seems limited? I really don't want it either way, but we get a lot of people asking about holding over earnings. Look at AAPL and AMZN Wednesday for 2 good reasons why its better to pick your spots then take pot shots!
See ya on the other side!
Waxie
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, or back in the Trendfund.com chatroom, we are simply CRUSHING THIS MARKET!
FXI calls from 2 days ago = another doubler!
We nailed MBI for $2.00 on a $10.80 stock! We've long the SOV June $7.50 puts from .40 as I've been short that thing for us since nearly $11 and I still stay it sees sub-$5 soon enough. The financials are NOT bottomed, I can't take listening to CNBC every day and every day hearing some complete and utter FOOL say they have and you should buy. ABK today showed why not, once again. STOP IT ALREADY! PLEASE! If you are buying bank stocks here you are so out of your freakin' mind its ridiculous.
You don't want to short them? OK, fine, cool, but don't buy them, pleaseeeeeee! They have a LONG way to go DOWN! Period, end of story. Why in the world and how in the world can anyone honestly think that C is a buy here? I don't care if it goes up, you're nuts to buy it. Whatever, I just really can't take it sometimes listening to the nonsense the pundits put forth and try to justify.
OK, enough, it don't matter, I am sticking to the plan of picking spots and not getting attached to anything either way here. We go up and down like a rollercoaster every day, there's just no reason to hold a lot of positions overnight. It'll be interesting to see what AAPL does off earnings. Frankly, they may buy it back up but I think eventually it'll work itself back down to the $120s or $130s. But, its a cult stock and as such it may see $200s before that happens. I certainly am not getting in front of it until it shows me that it wants to go down for real. For now its the type of stock investors look at as "safe" because obviously its a well run company and you can justify owning it if you are a fund manager.
AMZN #s were putrid. First glance they looked ok, but as always the margins are gonna kill it for now.
Does anyone else but me get tired of hearing what USED TO BE good fund managers have to say? Is it really news that Bill Miller is bullish on banks and has AMZN as one of his top holdings? I mean, when was the last time he was right on anything? If I'm not mistaken the guy said to buy ABK and MBI when they were $15ish. How's he doing? There are a lot of bull market geniuses, trying to pick bottoms and buying ABK and MBI does not impress me, sorry. Having AMZN as a top holding doesn't impress me either. Let's stop looking to guys who have been crushed call wise lately as gurus. Same goes with Abby Joseph. She's wonderful if the market goes straight up, but she's absolutely atrocious when we go down, just as most fund managers are.
And, just as I am when I get too biased one way or another. That's why we try to stay NEUTRAL and view each day as a new opportunity for da Ka-chingos!
Thursday should be interesting. MSFT reports after the close and we hear every day some praise for the company. They should beat handily, but the stock is up a lot the last couple weeks and seems to have a ceiling around $35. I suspect it'll be $32s by the close, so do you really want to take a shot they beat when the upside seems limited? I really don't want it either way, but we get a lot of people asking about holding over earnings. Look at AAPL and AMZN Wednesday for 2 good reasons why its better to pick your spots then take pot shots!
See ya on the other side!
Waxie
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Is that all there is, my friend, I thought it'd never end...
OK, so I'm starting to think this overall market really is trash canned sooner rather than later, but we'll see. AAPL earnings are key for the tech sector. I really have no feel for it. Pure guess is AAPL is down post earnings. But, that's PURE guess and I would not play it either way. More than likely its $140s or $200s. If it was closer to options expiration I'd recommend playing a straddle but it's not, so will probably just sit on the sidelines.
Watch the solars here, they are WAY overbought and the fact that FSLR couldn't hold $300s could be very telling if we do pull in. Also, it may or may not mean anything but historically when a sickly hot sector starts getting IPOs the sector is peaking. The AGs have been so hot for so long, could this be the time for a nice pull back? We'll see soon enough indeed.
I'm basically trying to just trade intraday here, its too choppy to start holding a ton of stuff overnight.
Watching Suns Spurs Game 2. I never saw a team that had so much talent look as bad as the Suns do vs. this team. Wow.
Let's trade like we mean it tomorrow and see if we can rock da kasbah!
And, yes, more info on Options and June seminar soon! Waxie@trendfund.com for more info if you have not sent an email yet.
RULE!
Waxie
Watch the solars here, they are WAY overbought and the fact that FSLR couldn't hold $300s could be very telling if we do pull in. Also, it may or may not mean anything but historically when a sickly hot sector starts getting IPOs the sector is peaking. The AGs have been so hot for so long, could this be the time for a nice pull back? We'll see soon enough indeed.
I'm basically trying to just trade intraday here, its too choppy to start holding a ton of stuff overnight.
Watching Suns Spurs Game 2. I never saw a team that had so much talent look as bad as the Suns do vs. this team. Wow.
Let's trade like we mean it tomorrow and see if we can rock da kasbah!
And, yes, more info on Options and June seminar soon! Waxie@trendfund.com for more info if you have not sent an email yet.
RULE!
Waxie
Monday, April 21, 2008
The WAXIE and TINY SHOWWW coming soon!!!
Almost forgot!
Time is running out for you to sign up for the Waxie & Tiny show in NJ mid-June!
1 week LIVE trading and coaching. And, a money back guarantee to end all money back guarantees!
You are guaranteed to make money, or we'll refund most of your seminar costs!
How's that for putting our money where our mouth's are!
If you have any interest, please email - debbie@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you some of the info so you can make an informed decision.
In the meantime, happy trading Tuesday!
Below is a link to see some info, or just email us and we'll provide all the info right away!
RULE and see ya live soon!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1040222&CFID=812564&CFTOKEN=19657008
Time is running out for you to sign up for the Waxie & Tiny show in NJ mid-June!
1 week LIVE trading and coaching. And, a money back guarantee to end all money back guarantees!
You are guaranteed to make money, or we'll refund most of your seminar costs!
How's that for putting our money where our mouth's are!
If you have any interest, please email - debbie@trendfund.com or waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you some of the info so you can make an informed decision.
In the meantime, happy trading Tuesday!
Below is a link to see some info, or just email us and we'll provide all the info right away!
RULE and see ya live soon!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1040222&CFID=812564&CFTOKEN=19657008
Ole MOMO and the traders lament...
It's earnings season in a momentum based market, so what do ya do?
Buy the MOMOOOOOOO, baby, buy da momo!
I mentioned AAPL last night here. BIDU, FSLR, and all the metal stocks are FLYING into earnings.
FSLR should see $320s into earnings. We got the V call options today early and we sold 1/3rd already for better than a 25% gain! SUUUUUUWEEET!
If you pick your spots here in this market and forget about the overall market daily gyrations you should do VERY well. Of course you'll do even better if you're in our chat room, so you should join us for a trial run if you haven't already. We are indeed kicking butt, I don't remember when the calls have been hotter than they are now. Well, ok, maybe back in 1999!
This market is a GREAT traders market and it's only going to get BETTER. It's interesting, does anyone think that anyone but traders and a minority of investors are making money in this market? Yeah, if you own the hottest sectors, the Ags, the Solars, yeah, you are rocking. Otherwise you're just treading water or worse more than likely cause for every winner you have you probably have a loser to balance it out.
We called ICO today at $8.40s, it was $9.30s after hours. Stock reports earnings Wednesday after the close it appears, stock looks like it wants to test $10.00 into that, or higher. Cheap coal stock, I had to do ittttttt!
Doubt we hold it over earnings, but it sure looked like a good setup INTO them and we took the trade. The options action on the stock showed some nice volume and again, its in a very hot sector and its a real company and its under $10, you figure it out!
In the meantime let's see what shakes here. The banks are in trouble, folks. Several are going to go under. I still like SOV to see under $5 sooner rather than later. I think best case for it is that it gets same type of take UNDER deal as WM and others have gotten. And, I still love C short to below $10 this year or within the next 12 months latest.
I would not be an investor here. I think we still may get my High of Year target, but we'll chop around now for a while and see what shakes. Market is trying to figure out if we're really at a "bottom" (we're not) or if we're gonna "retest the lows". We won't, we'll break them at some pt this year more than likely. It's so silly, really. Who cares? If you're in the financials you're crushed and if you're in the hot sectors you're elated. This is a split market, folks, it means you have to pick your spots and not get too invested in what you're doing for more than a short period. Sorry, the days of buy and hold are over if you want to make a real return on investment.
Today we have a VERY red hot IPO - IPI, a Potash stock. Booyah talked about it ad infinitum on his show today after hours and thus it'll be even hotter. SOMETIMES when you get a very hot IPO in a very hot sector it marks a near term top. Will it this time? I doubt it, but we'll see. Reality is, I am NOT in the camp that there is a commodity bubble. I think the US stock market is in much more of a bubble, and in fact I would argue that the BANKING sector and BROKER sectors are in a BUBBLE!
A bubble implies overvalued, right? Well, everyone is going to need to eat and build and grow. There are more and more people on the planet, we have shortages everywhere. Sorry to inform but there isn't a commodity bubble. It'll pull back at some pt, but this is like Solient Green. Unless we start to eat dead people, unfortunately there is going to be a very big food problem around the globe. It's amazing to me that no one deals with that issue but they pass a gazillion initiatives to save overpriced homes, many owned by richer than most people, and they all worry so much about the price of oil, but very little is mentioned about a world food shortage!
That's most unfortunate, don't ya think? And, frankly rather sad commentary on our priorities.
If I was in charge?
BAN ethanol production using food products (corn/soy). I'd raise the price of gas to $7 to $10 a gallon NOW and make it less worthwhile for most people unless they absolutely have to drive, to drive.
If the government then wants to really help the people who need the help, they can offer a subsiduary via a gas credit. If there is a big cutback in driving then much less will be used and the Middle Eastern countries that export oil to us would be forced to cut prices.
The gas credit money would not cost taxpayers anything, nor the government. It would come via a kickback from the oil companies/gas companies back to the government. That money could be closely monitored by a REAL non-political oversee committee so that the money doesn't end up in anyone's pocket, other than where it's supposed to go.
There are, in my opinion, a lot of creative ways for the govt to handle these kinds of issues. Yet we sit idly by and watch oil go up every freakin' day and go "oh, we can't do a thing about it, it's all because the dollar is weak!"
Ah, no, sorry, its because you are making it possible for the producing nations to do whatever they want, instead of taking the "power" away from them. The buyer should always name the price, that's how our stock market works, that's how ANY market works. If you make it a lot more expensive to drive then you will have less drivers and you will then have less of a need for the oil (It's oil, not gas, sorry,it's late!)
But, hey, what do I know? Oh, yeah, another benefit is that you'd have less green house gas effects which would help with global warming tremendously which would help in terms of crop growth which in turn would help quality of life.
It's really scary that no one seems to really have a clue. Maybe I don't either, but it would be nice to here someone come up with something outside the box for once.
The single dumbest idea our government has had in the last decade is ETHANOL. It hurts us in so many ways its absurd, yet the government still talks about it at times as though its part of a viable plan to curn oil consumption. All it really does is consume FOOD that could be used to help feed our poor, and help us contribute to the world around us and perhaps go back to truly being the "good guys" that people respect, not fear.
But, hey, I'm just a trader, so I'm sure my ideas are dumber than the door nails that stick me in the head everytime I hear certain things on CNBC or other media.
See ya in the am, let's rock! Futures are DOWN as of now, about 30 pts on the DOW and smaller % wise on Nasdaq. We shall see what we shall seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Feel free to post comments, folks. I'm lonely!
Buy the MOMOOOOOOO, baby, buy da momo!
I mentioned AAPL last night here. BIDU, FSLR, and all the metal stocks are FLYING into earnings.
FSLR should see $320s into earnings. We got the V call options today early and we sold 1/3rd already for better than a 25% gain! SUUUUUUWEEET!
If you pick your spots here in this market and forget about the overall market daily gyrations you should do VERY well. Of course you'll do even better if you're in our chat room, so you should join us for a trial run if you haven't already. We are indeed kicking butt, I don't remember when the calls have been hotter than they are now. Well, ok, maybe back in 1999!
This market is a GREAT traders market and it's only going to get BETTER. It's interesting, does anyone think that anyone but traders and a minority of investors are making money in this market? Yeah, if you own the hottest sectors, the Ags, the Solars, yeah, you are rocking. Otherwise you're just treading water or worse more than likely cause for every winner you have you probably have a loser to balance it out.
We called ICO today at $8.40s, it was $9.30s after hours. Stock reports earnings Wednesday after the close it appears, stock looks like it wants to test $10.00 into that, or higher. Cheap coal stock, I had to do ittttttt!
Doubt we hold it over earnings, but it sure looked like a good setup INTO them and we took the trade. The options action on the stock showed some nice volume and again, its in a very hot sector and its a real company and its under $10, you figure it out!
In the meantime let's see what shakes here. The banks are in trouble, folks. Several are going to go under. I still like SOV to see under $5 sooner rather than later. I think best case for it is that it gets same type of take UNDER deal as WM and others have gotten. And, I still love C short to below $10 this year or within the next 12 months latest.
I would not be an investor here. I think we still may get my High of Year target, but we'll chop around now for a while and see what shakes. Market is trying to figure out if we're really at a "bottom" (we're not) or if we're gonna "retest the lows". We won't, we'll break them at some pt this year more than likely. It's so silly, really. Who cares? If you're in the financials you're crushed and if you're in the hot sectors you're elated. This is a split market, folks, it means you have to pick your spots and not get too invested in what you're doing for more than a short period. Sorry, the days of buy and hold are over if you want to make a real return on investment.
Today we have a VERY red hot IPO - IPI, a Potash stock. Booyah talked about it ad infinitum on his show today after hours and thus it'll be even hotter. SOMETIMES when you get a very hot IPO in a very hot sector it marks a near term top. Will it this time? I doubt it, but we'll see. Reality is, I am NOT in the camp that there is a commodity bubble. I think the US stock market is in much more of a bubble, and in fact I would argue that the BANKING sector and BROKER sectors are in a BUBBLE!
A bubble implies overvalued, right? Well, everyone is going to need to eat and build and grow. There are more and more people on the planet, we have shortages everywhere. Sorry to inform but there isn't a commodity bubble. It'll pull back at some pt, but this is like Solient Green. Unless we start to eat dead people, unfortunately there is going to be a very big food problem around the globe. It's amazing to me that no one deals with that issue but they pass a gazillion initiatives to save overpriced homes, many owned by richer than most people, and they all worry so much about the price of oil, but very little is mentioned about a world food shortage!
That's most unfortunate, don't ya think? And, frankly rather sad commentary on our priorities.
If I was in charge?
BAN ethanol production using food products (corn/soy). I'd raise the price of gas to $7 to $10 a gallon NOW and make it less worthwhile for most people unless they absolutely have to drive, to drive.
If the government then wants to really help the people who need the help, they can offer a subsiduary via a gas credit. If there is a big cutback in driving then much less will be used and the Middle Eastern countries that export oil to us would be forced to cut prices.
The gas credit money would not cost taxpayers anything, nor the government. It would come via a kickback from the oil companies/gas companies back to the government. That money could be closely monitored by a REAL non-political oversee committee so that the money doesn't end up in anyone's pocket, other than where it's supposed to go.
There are, in my opinion, a lot of creative ways for the govt to handle these kinds of issues. Yet we sit idly by and watch oil go up every freakin' day and go "oh, we can't do a thing about it, it's all because the dollar is weak!"
Ah, no, sorry, its because you are making it possible for the producing nations to do whatever they want, instead of taking the "power" away from them. The buyer should always name the price, that's how our stock market works, that's how ANY market works. If you make it a lot more expensive to drive then you will have less drivers and you will then have less of a need for the oil (It's oil, not gas, sorry,it's late!)
But, hey, what do I know? Oh, yeah, another benefit is that you'd have less green house gas effects which would help with global warming tremendously which would help in terms of crop growth which in turn would help quality of life.
It's really scary that no one seems to really have a clue. Maybe I don't either, but it would be nice to here someone come up with something outside the box for once.
The single dumbest idea our government has had in the last decade is ETHANOL. It hurts us in so many ways its absurd, yet the government still talks about it at times as though its part of a viable plan to curn oil consumption. All it really does is consume FOOD that could be used to help feed our poor, and help us contribute to the world around us and perhaps go back to truly being the "good guys" that people respect, not fear.
But, hey, I'm just a trader, so I'm sure my ideas are dumber than the door nails that stick me in the head everytime I hear certain things on CNBC or other media.
See ya in the am, let's rock! Futures are DOWN as of now, about 30 pts on the DOW and smaller % wise on Nasdaq. We shall see what we shall seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Feel free to post comments, folks. I'm lonely!
Sunday, April 20, 2008
OH MONDAY MONDAY, tra la, la di daaaaaa...
So, what now Brown cow? I think we have to assume that the market should hold up reasonably well early this week. There isn't anything mind blowing on tap on any calanders that I can see that should derail us, and with AAPL and MSFT and YHOO on tap tech wise, I mean, does anyone really want to sell AAPL before earnings and risk missing the same $90 move that GOOG had? You have to assume not until proven otherwise. We should be choppy early as the market tries to figure out if the rally is overdone or if we really have "bottomed" near term. I still think we could see Highs of the Year shortly, but I think its unlikely the rally lasts more than that, if it gets there. I'm hoping the financials get another move higher, I'd love to be able to reenter some shorts when FNM is $30s and C is $30 as well. They will get overbought very quickly if they do get another move higher.
I would suggest keeping your powder dry here. I want to be mostly cash so I can jump into and out of positions here. This is a TRADERS MARKET (they usually are) and I want to make sure I'm not overcommitted one way or another and put my capital at risk. Friday was a SICK day, folks! SICK!
And, you all read it here, I NAILED the day. In fact, OPTIONS TRADER service had 3, count 'em THREE more than DOUBLES intraday. Yes, you read that correctly and that's no BS, 3 option calls that more than doubled during the day post the call!
V
AAPL
GOOG
TEX
LLY
We had a simply SICK day and there was more, too many to list (not really but its late and I can't remember them all) :)
Many people wrote in asing me about what I meant by PIN strike prices on option expiration day. I will do a class on that and other similar type market action shortly, stay tuned! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Options Expiration week and particularly Options Expiration DAY. Its my favorite day of the month by far. If you nail it you can make your whole month, or your whole 3 months in a single day and Friday we NAILED IT!
I will be sending out info on the Options 3-day seminar with 1 of those days a LIVE trading day in a seperate chat room with just me, and you guys and ALL OPTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!
Cost will be $495 for the 3 day online class, Day 1 and Day 2 will be strictly educational and Day 3 will be LIVE TRADING with ONLY options plays.
If you are interested and have not emailed me yet, please do so, I'm not going to teach it to 100 people, so I suggest you email me to reserve your spot. Anyone who has already emailed me, please do NOT, you will be getting some info shortly, stay tuned!!!
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Also, email me with the heading OPTIONS TRADER if you are interested in signing up for the OPTIONS TRADER service that's been on fire. Same email addy. Thanks!
RULE and let's rock this week, folks,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I would suggest keeping your powder dry here. I want to be mostly cash so I can jump into and out of positions here. This is a TRADERS MARKET (they usually are) and I want to make sure I'm not overcommitted one way or another and put my capital at risk. Friday was a SICK day, folks! SICK!
And, you all read it here, I NAILED the day. In fact, OPTIONS TRADER service had 3, count 'em THREE more than DOUBLES intraday. Yes, you read that correctly and that's no BS, 3 option calls that more than doubled during the day post the call!
V
AAPL
GOOG
TEX
LLY
We had a simply SICK day and there was more, too many to list (not really but its late and I can't remember them all) :)
Many people wrote in asing me about what I meant by PIN strike prices on option expiration day. I will do a class on that and other similar type market action shortly, stay tuned! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Options Expiration week and particularly Options Expiration DAY. Its my favorite day of the month by far. If you nail it you can make your whole month, or your whole 3 months in a single day and Friday we NAILED IT!
I will be sending out info on the Options 3-day seminar with 1 of those days a LIVE trading day in a seperate chat room with just me, and you guys and ALL OPTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!
Cost will be $495 for the 3 day online class, Day 1 and Day 2 will be strictly educational and Day 3 will be LIVE TRADING with ONLY options plays.
If you are interested and have not emailed me yet, please do so, I'm not going to teach it to 100 people, so I suggest you email me to reserve your spot. Anyone who has already emailed me, please do NOT, you will be getting some info shortly, stay tuned!!!
Email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Also, email me with the heading OPTIONS TRADER if you are interested in signing up for the OPTIONS TRADER service that's been on fire. Same email addy. Thanks!
RULE and let's rock this week, folks,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Options expiration, watch the PIN ACTION...
I'm going to do a class on this shortly, but the simple version is that on OE day, which is today, many stocks get "pinned" at strike prices. Knowing that gives you an EXTREME advantage.
Just keep an eye on GOOG, GS, BIDU, AMZN, AAPL, X, etc. We'll tally it up Monday and see if it pans out.
Friday should be a wild ride, stay tuned!
FYI - to all those who emailed me about the Options 3 day mini-seminar, stay tuned I'll get you the info early next week. If you are still interested, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com.
In case you missed yesterday's blog, its 3 days ONLY OPTIONS. First 2 days are all classes and discussion on different option plays. It'll have an INTRO. class, Intermediate class and advanced options class and then day 3 will be an ALL DAY only options trading day LIVE with me in a seperate room just for option traders.
email me if you haven't already if you want to join us, the price is listed in yesterdays blog, I belive its $495 or $595 for the 3 days.
waxie@trendfund.com
Just keep an eye on GOOG, GS, BIDU, AMZN, AAPL, X, etc. We'll tally it up Monday and see if it pans out.
Friday should be a wild ride, stay tuned!
FYI - to all those who emailed me about the Options 3 day mini-seminar, stay tuned I'll get you the info early next week. If you are still interested, please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com.
In case you missed yesterday's blog, its 3 days ONLY OPTIONS. First 2 days are all classes and discussion on different option plays. It'll have an INTRO. class, Intermediate class and advanced options class and then day 3 will be an ALL DAY only options trading day LIVE with me in a seperate room just for option traders.
email me if you haven't already if you want to join us, the price is listed in yesterdays blog, I belive its $495 or $595 for the 3 days.
waxie@trendfund.com
GOOLEICIOUS, bye bye...
GOOGLE rules the world!!! Ka-chingo for GOOGLE!' Whateva. ALMOST (ah, like hindsight, always 20/20!) called the $450 GOOG options straddle. Ah, the ones that get away!!! No biggie, though, only a triple plus. I really had zero opinion on GOOG #s. If you put a gun to my head I'd have said long, just cause right now everything going up even when they miss on the notion that we're at a bottom. Maybe, maybe, though I don't buy it. But, meanwhile we got nice big option moves on GS, MA, CMP, MELI and such. VERY nice, Waxie LOVE Options Expiration week! Only regret was selling a bit too soon cause GOOG looks to carry us higher into tomorrows close it appears. I've been saying we could get to a new High of Year shortly and we just may. The joy of trading is you can be bearish and yet still make money from the long side on a day to day basis! Or, even a week to week basis. So, how can YOU profit from GOOG without owning it? Well, I'm going to post some commentary now for you guys. This is the type of stuff we do for our clients day in and day out. We have been KICKING butt and we are going to be offering a FREE TRIAL for ya shortly so you can see for yourself why we are THE BEST, period! I would buy YHOO here. I'm not going to go into it for the hour I usually would, but I'll give you the basics and you can make your own decisions. I think YHOO is a pretty nice long play here, I think its only real downside appears to be if MSFT backs off its offer. I do not see that happening. It could, but I think its unlikely and GOOG is the reason. Here goes;YHOO and GOOG are forming a partnership to fend off MSFT offer of $31 a share for YHOO,which YHOO rejected out of hand. I'm sure you know this.
With GOOG #s today it reaffirms jerry yang's contention that MSFT offered way too little for YHOO at $31 a share.
MSFT when they made the offer got HAMMERED, destroyed and MSFT shareholders have been up in arms.
GOOG's #s does several things -
#1)Reinforces the bull case on online advertising
#2)Justifies MSFT offer for YHOO for both itself and it's shareholders, and the need for MSFT to do something or be crushed in the online ad arena. Also, you probably know this, but GOOG is releasing several initiatives that will directly compete with MSFT, including by all indications its own computer platform to compete with Windows.
There's more, but I have to leave, so suffice to say I think there is zero chance now #1 - the deal gets done between YHOO and MSFT
#2 - it gets done at a minimum of $35 a share in cash
There is just no chance that MSFT can not afford NOT to do the YHOO deal. GOOG literally is putting MSFT long term prospects at risk if they don't in my opinion.
There are several ways to play this, but the "safest" would be to buy YHOO shares and then hedge with the $25 puts, or the $20s if you want to have more share risk. The only question is when a deal gets done.
GOOG is $527 a share after hours. They will potentially go to $550 by tomorrow. I wish I bought some calls, but obviously didn't. Regardless, I think there is a very good opportunity on YHOO here long.
Further still, YHOO reports earnings next week I believe. There is virtually ZERO shot they do not blow out. ZERO. yang is not going to miss, that's absurd. They should blow out, further justifying a deal to MSFT, MSFT shareholders.
MSFT shares should also get a near term lift. I would be a buyer tomorrow at the open depending on where it opens for the same reasons. The stock sold off about 12% since they made the YHOO play.
Also, MSFT had admitted offering YHOO $40 a share in Dec. So, I think it is possible that the # is closer to $40 than $35. I think YHOO is a good buy here for the reasons stated above. We'll see soon enough, but I think if you play it right you should make a nice score without too much risk. See ya tomorrow, folks, see ya tomorro! RULE!
With GOOG #s today it reaffirms jerry yang's contention that MSFT offered way too little for YHOO at $31 a share.
MSFT when they made the offer got HAMMERED, destroyed and MSFT shareholders have been up in arms.
GOOG's #s does several things -
#1)Reinforces the bull case on online advertising
#2)Justifies MSFT offer for YHOO for both itself and it's shareholders, and the need for MSFT to do something or be crushed in the online ad arena. Also, you probably know this, but GOOG is releasing several initiatives that will directly compete with MSFT, including by all indications its own computer platform to compete with Windows.
There's more, but I have to leave, so suffice to say I think there is zero chance now #1 - the deal gets done between YHOO and MSFT
#2 - it gets done at a minimum of $35 a share in cash
There is just no chance that MSFT can not afford NOT to do the YHOO deal. GOOG literally is putting MSFT long term prospects at risk if they don't in my opinion.
There are several ways to play this, but the "safest" would be to buy YHOO shares and then hedge with the $25 puts, or the $20s if you want to have more share risk. The only question is when a deal gets done.
GOOG is $527 a share after hours. They will potentially go to $550 by tomorrow. I wish I bought some calls, but obviously didn't. Regardless, I think there is a very good opportunity on YHOO here long.
Further still, YHOO reports earnings next week I believe. There is virtually ZERO shot they do not blow out. ZERO. yang is not going to miss, that's absurd. They should blow out, further justifying a deal to MSFT, MSFT shareholders.
MSFT shares should also get a near term lift. I would be a buyer tomorrow at the open depending on where it opens for the same reasons. The stock sold off about 12% since they made the YHOO play.
Also, MSFT had admitted offering YHOO $40 a share in Dec. So, I think it is possible that the # is closer to $40 than $35. I think YHOO is a good buy here for the reasons stated above. We'll see soon enough, but I think if you play it right you should make a nice score without too much risk. See ya tomorrow, folks, see ya tomorro! RULE!
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
RALLY TIMEEEEEE, and starvation...
So, INTC posts pretty poor #s, but as we have discussed lately the market shrugs it off and blasts higher! Ka-chingo!
Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.
Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.
Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!
In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.
Stocks that they like to pin are;
GS
GOOG
BIDU
ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!
In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.
Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!
Be safe, and rule!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @ waxie@trendfund.com
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.
Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.
Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.
Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ waxie@trendfund.com and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!
In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.
Stocks that they like to pin are;
GS
GOOG
BIDU
ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!
In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.
Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!
Be safe, and rule!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @ waxie@trendfund.com
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS, THE PARTY IS OVA!
One of the hardest things about trading a Bear market, which we most certainly are, is that the short side tends to sell MUCH faster than the market rises in a bull market. And, the short covering rallies are sharp, on lower volume and happen at a moments notice. So, one can get shaken out of a lot of things if one is not careful, or even turn a sharp winner into a sharp loser.
GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.
I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.
EARNINGS -
GOOG
IBM
MER
OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.
This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!
As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.
the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!
Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!
FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ waxie@trendfund.com to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!
Again, email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Or, find out and sign up for it @ https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1033621&CFID=808199&CFTOKEN=72414501
OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=SCMAPR2008&LC=LT20080414SCM&bannerid=889&trafficid=1033619&CFID=808198&CFTOKEN=69194363
email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!
There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at Trendfund.com!
Enjoy!
Rule,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!
GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.
I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.
EARNINGS -
GOOG
IBM
MER
OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.
This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!
As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.
the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!
Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!
FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ waxie@trendfund.com to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!
Again, email me @ waxie@trendfund.com
Or, find out and sign up for it @ https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=WAXIETINYMAY2008&LC=LT200805NJSHOW&bannerid=886&trafficid=1033621&CFID=808199&CFTOKEN=72414501
OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!
https://www.trendfund.net/index.cfm?action=class_registration&CL=SCMAPR2008&LC=LT20080414SCM&bannerid=889&trafficid=1033619&CFID=808198&CFTOKEN=69194363
email me at - waxie@trendfund.com if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!
There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at Trendfund.com!
Enjoy!
Rule,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
WAAAA MOOOOOOOO!
OK, so Washington Mutual gets bailed out and everyone's SO happy! I've said for a while that WM is on MY watchlist of banks that I feel could go under. The $7 BIL bailout, believe it or not, doesn't change my view much. Just means it'll take longer, but I still think WM could go under. As it is they diluted the stock so much that the value of WM should be roughly $8s a share at most. The stock had run up roughly 30% on Monday into this supposed good news. I have to say I missed the opportunity to short it at the close because I don't like to be naked on news that I know is coming.
So, since so far nearly every financial institution that's taken on money has had to dilute their stock in a huge way, why would anyone want any piece of that sector? I think you have to be INSANE to buy a banking stock here. I don't care which one it is, you're nuts. So what some are better than others, that does not make them worth a hill a beans! C is going to be under $10 within 12 months, mark it down. And, anyone buying it thinking its a steal here at $23s is fooling themselves. Same thing with the brokers, same thing with the REITS. As usual, I hope I'm wrong!
There was a nice piece on Bloomberg today about the banking crisis. You should all go read it. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay.wksrAwOGI&refer=home
The banking system is on the verge of failure. Now maybe we avert a bigger problem, but I think that in the BEST case scenario the banks will have zero dividends and will be trading sole on their PE's. And, since their is likely to be a severe credit crunch for a while, and since they are cutting back on loans anyway, where exactly are they going to be making money from to justify their valuations. Banks don't trade at 25 X's earnings, they trade at 10 X's earnings, or 12 X's earnings. And, we're probably talking about them trading at 30 - 50 X's earnings for the next couple of years at least.
There's simply no way to justify these prices.
In the meantime, the market is going to either really believe we are going to have a short lived recession and break out to yearly highs shortly, or we're going to break back down. This is, truly, make or break time in my opinion. I still think there is a decent shot they bust us higher. I always say that people would rather lose money than risk not making money. Most of us have that instinct, its part of human nature.
FRUSTRATIONS OF TRADING...
Monday was frustrating early on for me. I called the bounce off the open and the move to green. It was a super move and a nice call. But, I had my field narrowed down to two stocks that have been hot lately to play and I picked GOOG over FSLR. Bad move. GOOG never lifted itself out of the hole it was in from the start while FSLR ended up going about $7 off the open! Sometimes it happens, it's part of trading. GOOG had been red hot and you all know I think GOOG is worth a LOT less than what it trades for now, but on a gap down you want the stocks that are gonna move the most and best and GOOG usually fits that bill. Not today!
As I write this we are looking lower futures wise. If we gap down I'll be in there buying again unless news comes. We should get a bounce. From there we'll see where they want to take us, but 12,500 should provide nice support. If we bust below that and hold below it then I think we retest 12,000 again shortly. If we can hold 12,500 then it should set up a higher high near term and perhaps get us that HOY move. I hope so, cause that should set up a very nice fall when we break the yearly LOWS.
It's all about keeping your eye on the bigger picture, folks! All about it.
See ya in the am, keep your focus and keep your powder dry. We're gearing up for a BIG move here...one way or the other!
RULE
Waxie
So, since so far nearly every financial institution that's taken on money has had to dilute their stock in a huge way, why would anyone want any piece of that sector? I think you have to be INSANE to buy a banking stock here. I don't care which one it is, you're nuts. So what some are better than others, that does not make them worth a hill a beans! C is going to be under $10 within 12 months, mark it down. And, anyone buying it thinking its a steal here at $23s is fooling themselves. Same thing with the brokers, same thing with the REITS. As usual, I hope I'm wrong!
There was a nice piece on Bloomberg today about the banking crisis. You should all go read it. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay.wksrAwOGI&refer=home
The banking system is on the verge of failure. Now maybe we avert a bigger problem, but I think that in the BEST case scenario the banks will have zero dividends and will be trading sole on their PE's. And, since their is likely to be a severe credit crunch for a while, and since they are cutting back on loans anyway, where exactly are they going to be making money from to justify their valuations. Banks don't trade at 25 X's earnings, they trade at 10 X's earnings, or 12 X's earnings. And, we're probably talking about them trading at 30 - 50 X's earnings for the next couple of years at least.
There's simply no way to justify these prices.
In the meantime, the market is going to either really believe we are going to have a short lived recession and break out to yearly highs shortly, or we're going to break back down. This is, truly, make or break time in my opinion. I still think there is a decent shot they bust us higher. I always say that people would rather lose money than risk not making money. Most of us have that instinct, its part of human nature.
FRUSTRATIONS OF TRADING...
Monday was frustrating early on for me. I called the bounce off the open and the move to green. It was a super move and a nice call. But, I had my field narrowed down to two stocks that have been hot lately to play and I picked GOOG over FSLR. Bad move. GOOG never lifted itself out of the hole it was in from the start while FSLR ended up going about $7 off the open! Sometimes it happens, it's part of trading. GOOG had been red hot and you all know I think GOOG is worth a LOT less than what it trades for now, but on a gap down you want the stocks that are gonna move the most and best and GOOG usually fits that bill. Not today!
As I write this we are looking lower futures wise. If we gap down I'll be in there buying again unless news comes. We should get a bounce. From there we'll see where they want to take us, but 12,500 should provide nice support. If we bust below that and hold below it then I think we retest 12,000 again shortly. If we can hold 12,500 then it should set up a higher high near term and perhaps get us that HOY move. I hope so, cause that should set up a very nice fall when we break the yearly LOWS.
It's all about keeping your eye on the bigger picture, folks! All about it.
See ya in the am, keep your focus and keep your powder dry. We're gearing up for a BIG move here...one way or the other!
RULE
Waxie
Monday, April 07, 2008
DISCONNECT, but with optimism...
It's funny, and absurd and actually endearing that we live in a country where optimism and hope do indeed spring eternal. It's hard for me sometimes, believe it or not, to be the guy who punches holes in "hope" as far as the market goes. Some of you may know this, most won't, but when I first started and was one of the first (and only) to call the market's peak in 2000 and was on CNN FN and FOX, etc. saying that it's time to short the market because we are gonna get hammered I got literal death threats. It was pretty bad, in one week I got 4 death threats. I had to go to NYPD Blue and speak to a detective, and I hired a former Detective to help me out. It's not the worst thing that ever happened to me, and frankly its kinda hard to scare me about most things, but having a child in 2001 and still getting them freaked me out a bit, I have to say. Thankfuly that hasn't happened in a long time, and I think we're much more "trained" now that the market can and does go down in a big way at times. So, I'm not the only one saying there is a disconnect right now between the market and reality. The pundits will say that the reason why the market is rallying is because this is going to be a short recession and the Fed's actions are already working and real estate will rebound, and all will be well. Booyah comes on all the time saying that home prices will be higher in a year from now. Sure they will be. I hope they will, like everyone else, but I get paid a lot of money by folks to give them a dose of reality every day so that they can hopefully profit by the market swings that occur each and every day. I'm not paid to be a talking head that says "oh, this is cheap or that is expensive". I give my opinions, sometimes I'm wrong, most of the time I'm right. The problem with the pundits its a conflict of interest, they are paid basically to tell you what to BUY. They aren't paid to tell you what to sell. Booyah is on now telling you that the people shorting the market are evil and that the uptick rule should be reinstated. THAT is the root of the market problems! yeah, ok, sure it is. This from a guy who was a hedge fund guy for years and who shorted stocks all the time. So, why is he on the case of shorts? Well, I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure that out. If the market goes into a prolonged bear market, which I believe it will and is, then the type of show he is on will be VERY difficult to stay on air. My business has gone down due to the market. When you are in the market you always "root" for it to go up, its the best for everyone. I would love for the market to go to 25,000, that would be awesome. I don't see that happening anytime in the next millenium, but I would be very happy if it happened. And, hey, maybe it will. Sometimes it pays to be wrong. My point is that I have to try to be a voice of reason (reality). We've been long lately and caught much of the move higher, but I am definately more bearish than bullish overall and longer term. The economy shows NO signs of getting better. This is, in my opinion, a trading rally in bear market. Unfortunately I can walk the streets of NYC and see store after store shut down. The unemployment #s are horrid an they are 100% getting worse. Washington Mutual (WM) rallied hard today after "good" news. In my view its just another shorting opp and I would love WM to see $16ish so I can reshort the thing. remember, just cause a stock isn't going under doesn't mean its worth $16 a share! On a daily basis we need to pick stocks that will move BOTH ways. We do that better than anyone else out there I believe. We're not always right, but we try to be and we try to be the voice of reason. The best traders have the steadiest hands. Hopefully you're stay steady with us! Tuesday should be pretty choppy. Market is trying to figure out how to push higher but its overbought. I think we could get another push higher, yet I am iffy here. I usually have a strong feeling but here I just want to take it minute by minute and stay nimble. When the market gives us some more guidance there will be a bigger move. It looks like higher here, but we shall see soon enough. Watch V and MA. MA has earnings shortly and V looks ready to pop HIGHER. We shall see! RULE! WAXIE
Friday, April 04, 2008
Up day today no matter the #s?
After yesterday's rally despite horrid economic #s I think we should get a bump today no matter what they #s are. It's actually quite astonishing how we continue to shrug off bad news and power higher under the (potentially) naive belief that we're going to end up getting a huge economic bump with all the Fed initiatives. Perhaps we will, perhaps, but history is not on the markets side, as much as prognosticators would like to pitch as being the case. The bottom line is that the stock market has not moved a single inch in the last DECADE. Wall Street journal the other day called the 2000s the "lost decade". And ,basically what's happened is that we've just had sector rotation, that's all. Look at tech as prime example and you'll see that the market hasn't moved up for sure, and in fact many sectors have moved down and at best sideways. IBM, a DOW bellweather (and tech) hasn't budged in 10 years! EMC is down 80% from its peaks, and DELL, INTC and MSFT and CSCO and dozens of others are less than 1/2 what they were 10 years ago.
The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!
Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!
RULE!
Waxie
The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!
Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Waxie & Tiny Show - SEMINAR - Money Back Guarantee!
Here's the link for the upcoming Waxie and Tiny show seminar. I suggest you sign up ASAP, once it sells out, it sells out. You have very little to lose and a LOT to gain! www.trendfund.com/banners/bannerthru.asp?bannerid=880 sign up NOW!
BOOYAHHHH!!!
Wowsa! The market EXPLODED as we entered the 2nd quarter. I had a feeling we would get a bounce, but have to say I didn't expect that kind of move, there were NO SELLERS anywhere to be found and after initially trying to fade the huge gap up, we went along for the ride and called MON, MOS and several others for VERY nice rides HIGHER! That's why we TRADE and don't invest, on days like today you can catch the entire move investors wait an entire year to make. Think about it, market up 3+% today and down 10% on the year. That's the power of the TREND. SO, what trend is this? THis is the anti-Window Dressing trend, the stocks that were sold in the prior quarter get bought to start the next quarter. We teach this class every seminar (you can buy it in our store, the Trends are your Friends DVD @ www.trendfund.com) If thats the case then this may have a few days to pan out but ultimately should crash and burn again. I would NOT, I repeat NOT be shorting this and trying to pick this off here YET. I think I want to let this one play itself out, it might have a little ways to go on this one. I have a feeling they will not let this go so fast, so I would not try to pick the top on this one. Let's see how it plays out. I am LONG GOOG and GS, two stocks I gave as TOP 5 shorts longer term, so that will tell you how I feel this second. I'm not long much, but I am long here overnight. I do NOT want to short this just yet. I think they can pop us for short term gains. We'll see, but don't be so eager to short here is my call. If we die again we can hop on board, but GS can see $200 and GOOG can see $500 near term. Will they? We'll see, but I wouldn't be shocked. Usually new quarter can bring a lot of fund money in worried they will miss the rally and that we are indeed at a "bottom". Are we? Highly unlikely. By the way, did you see how absurd they were on CNBC? Hehe, they were going nuts and all giddy, it was pretty funny. I think they nervous if market tanks hard enough they are out of a job, so they were clearly giddy. Is that what you call unbiased reporting? Being a freakin' cheerleader? :) See ya tomorrow, folks. Watch for followthrough. I think a gap down tomorrow is a free money buy unless we get bad news. Hard to imagine us tanking hard tomorrow, really doubt it. RULE!
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