Join me for a FREE class this Tuesday, June 7th @ 5:30 pm EST
We'll go over a complete Market Overview, with technical and trend analysis and also a special class on trading Relative Strength vs. Relative Weakness...join us for FREE -
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Waxie
Twitter: @realwaxie
Facebook: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
FREE NEWSLETTER w/Trade ideas
Check out this month's newsletter, Trend Profit Report, I give specific stock play ideas. You get your 1st issue for FREE, so check it out and sign up for it, its going to be released in the next couple of days...
https://www.trendfund.com/store/index.cfm?action=item&item_id=92&CFID=288574&CFTOKEN=21215017
also, check me out on Facebook; Michael "Waxie" Parness
and Twitter; @realwaxie
https://www.trendfund.com/store/index.cfm?action=item&item_id=92&CFID=288574&CFTOKEN=21215017
also, check me out on Facebook; Michael "Waxie" Parness
and Twitter; @realwaxie
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
WINDOW DRESSING AND EARNINGS RUNNERS are HERE! Guaranteed PROFITS!
This Sunday, March 27th @ 7 pm EST!
Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:
SIGN UP HERE: http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwd032711
OR
Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwdercom
*It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.
For those of you who don't know (or do), every quarter one of my all-time favorite TRENDS pops on my radar screen. And, many quarters we've given a Window Dressing Class AND our TOP TEN STOCKS and TOP FIVE OPTION ideas for the current quarter. These lists have overall done amazing over the years, with an unreal record that is off the charts! Having said that, this quarter not only are we charging a lot less then we've done many times in the past. AND, we're also offering a PROFIT GUARANTEE! If the list doesn't show a profit (we'll give entries and exits when sold, win/lose or draw) then you'll get the next list for FREE, absolutely no charge - period!
Also, every quarter traditionally we give an EARNINGS RUNNER list and class and this quarter I feel strongly should be some strong ideas to play. You can sign up for BOTH and get a huge discount and get the same PROFIT GUARANTEE! Read it all and sign up HERE:
Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwd032711
OR
Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwdercom
It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.
Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:
SIGN UP HERE: http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwd032711
OR
Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwdercom
*It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.
For those of you who don't know (or do), every quarter one of my all-time favorite TRENDS pops on my radar screen. And, many quarters we've given a Window Dressing Class AND our TOP TEN STOCKS and TOP FIVE OPTION ideas for the current quarter. These lists have overall done amazing over the years, with an unreal record that is off the charts! Having said that, this quarter not only are we charging a lot less then we've done many times in the past. AND, we're also offering a PROFIT GUARANTEE! If the list doesn't show a profit (we'll give entries and exits when sold, win/lose or draw) then you'll get the next list for FREE, absolutely no charge - period!
Also, every quarter traditionally we give an EARNINGS RUNNER list and class and this quarter I feel strongly should be some strong ideas to play. You can sign up for BOTH and get a huge discount and get the same PROFIT GUARANTEE! Read it all and sign up HERE:
Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwd032711
OR
Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!
http://trendfund.com/r.cfm?x=suwdercom
It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.
WHAT'S TO COME...
Very interesting market here, folks. We looked dead early today but then rallied back against the grain and stretched out some nice gains across most sectors, with the industrials and metals leading the way. Some oversold and unloved stocks bounced as well, like FFIV and APKT and PCLN, while NFLX and BIDU continued their assault on upward momentum, pushing to blue skies on BIDU and closer to a breakout on NFLX if we continue to bounce (or it just does). I pity the shorts on NFLX, they had hope there for a few days that it would finally come back to earth - only to be CRUSHED once again as the stock got upgraded by Goldman and then again yesterday and then has news seemingly everyday that pushes it higher and higher...One stock trading very oddly again is AAPL. You know I liked it short longer term and we caught a very nice $20ish move down up til yesterday, but today it sold off HARD early and bounced but still lagged the overall market. Something appears to be up, but that's pure speculation on my part, so we'll see. Just don't like the way its trading, if we continue higher it will probably bounce but its up days are fewer and it bounces huge when it does which typically isn't bullish, much as bulls are happy when it does go up $8 or $10 a day. Needs a blue skies breakout to confirm in my view that it will see $400 before $300, but it very well may...
Next week we have WINDOW DRESSING and we're doing a class (I'll post the link here tomorrow) and that's typically very bullish for the market overall, so it'll be interesting to see if the market can hold over 1300 and then potentially retest those yearly highs soon. Earnings season is again in vogue as ORCL and RIMM report Thursday after the close. ORCL has beaten big and rallied hard for a while after earnings reports that I can recall, so it'll be a nice tell for us if it does or doesn't follow that trend. A weak showing would potentially scare some weak handed bulls and a blow out might push us right back to those highs I just spoke of.
RIMM is anyone's guess. I'm long a few calls that I at the moment plan on selling before earnings, and my sense is they have a better shot of going up then down further after a pretty dramatic selloff from the $70s, but the #s will tell on this one and if they are bad the stock usually tanks pretty hard. Next stop down would potentially be $50 or less if they really screw things up. We'll see soon enough...
I shorted the Euro today against the dollar, up a few sheckles, just thinking that the dollar isn't ready for complete collapse just yet. We'll see, tight stop on it and may take some profits here after I finish this up anyway. Not much would prevent the dollar from rallying so that the EURO is 1.38 area rather then 1.41 area, but against a short term trade for me that I intend to be out of very soon, if not tonight even...
If the dollar does bounce its not good for stocks, but market is all over the place so we just have to sit back, relax and play it by ear...more later - rock on and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @Realwaxie
Next week we have WINDOW DRESSING and we're doing a class (I'll post the link here tomorrow) and that's typically very bullish for the market overall, so it'll be interesting to see if the market can hold over 1300 and then potentially retest those yearly highs soon. Earnings season is again in vogue as ORCL and RIMM report Thursday after the close. ORCL has beaten big and rallied hard for a while after earnings reports that I can recall, so it'll be a nice tell for us if it does or doesn't follow that trend. A weak showing would potentially scare some weak handed bulls and a blow out might push us right back to those highs I just spoke of.
RIMM is anyone's guess. I'm long a few calls that I at the moment plan on selling before earnings, and my sense is they have a better shot of going up then down further after a pretty dramatic selloff from the $70s, but the #s will tell on this one and if they are bad the stock usually tanks pretty hard. Next stop down would potentially be $50 or less if they really screw things up. We'll see soon enough...
I shorted the Euro today against the dollar, up a few sheckles, just thinking that the dollar isn't ready for complete collapse just yet. We'll see, tight stop on it and may take some profits here after I finish this up anyway. Not much would prevent the dollar from rallying so that the EURO is 1.38 area rather then 1.41 area, but against a short term trade for me that I intend to be out of very soon, if not tonight even...
If the dollar does bounce its not good for stocks, but market is all over the place so we just have to sit back, relax and play it by ear...more later - rock on and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @Realwaxie
Sunday, March 20, 2011
NEW WEEK, MORE NEWS FLOW...
Futures up HUGE as I write this. Nuke news turning potentially "positive" (not being insensitive at all, but more positive then it has been let's call it); Libya hope that allies will push Gadafi out of control.
This week we have earnings from ORCL and RIMM, but keep an eye on the BANKS for real key to any long lasting rally, if it is to develop. That sector should outperform after the dividend increases at some banks are going into effect, it opens up some more buying from funds that only deal in dividend stocks of certain %s. So, that's the key sector in my book.
Tech will move on ORCL and RIMM news, but has lagged very badly and even the gap up here as I write isn't remotely as large as the S & P. Keep an eye on AAPL and stocks like FFIV as they will either squeeze or completely fall apart and look out below.
1300 is the obvious resistence on the S & P, if we get there keep close tabs, a failure there may take us right back down to 1250 or lower. A break above could lead to further expansion.
NEWS still rules, so I think best bets are to be mostly cash and play what the market gives ya...
10 am rule in effect on tech and banks, if banks break higher through morning look for further upside into the close today. If they can't hold gains then we're in trouble...subject to news flow remains status quo.
Rock on and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @realwaxie
This week we have earnings from ORCL and RIMM, but keep an eye on the BANKS for real key to any long lasting rally, if it is to develop. That sector should outperform after the dividend increases at some banks are going into effect, it opens up some more buying from funds that only deal in dividend stocks of certain %s. So, that's the key sector in my book.
Tech will move on ORCL and RIMM news, but has lagged very badly and even the gap up here as I write isn't remotely as large as the S & P. Keep an eye on AAPL and stocks like FFIV as they will either squeeze or completely fall apart and look out below.
1300 is the obvious resistence on the S & P, if we get there keep close tabs, a failure there may take us right back down to 1250 or lower. A break above could lead to further expansion.
NEWS still rules, so I think best bets are to be mostly cash and play what the market gives ya...
10 am rule in effect on tech and banks, if banks break higher through morning look for further upside into the close today. If they can't hold gains then we're in trouble...subject to news flow remains status quo.
Rock on and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @realwaxie
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Ahhhh, the news...
So, the G7 decided to intervene in YEN Currency and the Nikkei is thus up about 2.5%, while the YEN fell off a cliff.
I guess more intervention and manipulation of currencies is going to fix everything. Right?
Hmmm, just had to check around to see why we flew. When you are moving up solely based on news you have serious issues.
There are several bullets the FED has that will continue to bubble the markets. At some point they will do QE3 and then probably QE4, etc. They've committed to making the dollar worthless as a strategy. I obviously think thats the worst thing they could do, but I'm just a Waxie and no one listens to me.
Oh, well, I try my best. The reality is that the market will go up and go down at some point based on reality, it always does. We have gone up and will continue to hold up or rally if they make the dollar completely worthless, but I'm not sure what good that'll do to own worthless paper.
It's interesting that GOLD fell off a cliff with the troubles in the Middle East and Japan BUT it rallied off currency manipulation.
Friday will be interesting because of this news and what comes out elsewhere, but it'd be so nice if we just let things play out without reacting after the fact. We just keep adding to asset bubbles to make them even bigger and all bubbles at some point - POP!
Rock on, G-dspeed to all -
Waxie
I guess more intervention and manipulation of currencies is going to fix everything. Right?
Hmmm, just had to check around to see why we flew. When you are moving up solely based on news you have serious issues.
There are several bullets the FED has that will continue to bubble the markets. At some point they will do QE3 and then probably QE4, etc. They've committed to making the dollar worthless as a strategy. I obviously think thats the worst thing they could do, but I'm just a Waxie and no one listens to me.
Oh, well, I try my best. The reality is that the market will go up and go down at some point based on reality, it always does. We have gone up and will continue to hold up or rally if they make the dollar completely worthless, but I'm not sure what good that'll do to own worthless paper.
It's interesting that GOLD fell off a cliff with the troubles in the Middle East and Japan BUT it rallied off currency manipulation.
Friday will be interesting because of this news and what comes out elsewhere, but it'd be so nice if we just let things play out without reacting after the fact. We just keep adding to asset bubbles to make them even bigger and all bubbles at some point - POP!
Rock on, G-dspeed to all -
Waxie
Friday and more...
Does anyone want to own stocks long over the weekend with all the lunacy in the world going on? I'll be surprised baring unequivical good news if we close green Friday, though it is an Options expiration so anything is possible. Right now it feels like we have blinders on and stay in denial about reality.
Saudi King speaks at 7 am EST should move the oil market. I look for a very whippy day, so be careful BOTH ways.
APPL and tech all around is trading horribly, even on a day like today when the DOW smoked it, the Nasdaq could not sustain anything into the close. AAPL fell out of bed and looks VERY heavy here. I think on the next push lower this thing sees close to or below $300. I don't mean the next day we close down, I mean the next sustained move lower. I view AAPL as one of the best shorts on the board at this point.
I know, I know thats blaspheme! How dare I not believe AAPL goes straight up and never stops? Well, pretty easy, look at the way its trading. Anything is possible and when we get into next earnings seasons soon it'll bounce again, if not before, I just see the way its trading and its not trading well at all. It was roughly $5 off its intraday highs by the close even with the DOW pushing toward the days highs. Not a very strong performance.
Having said that, futures flying here afterhours right now, up about 16 pts, from being down about 10 earlier, so a 26 point reversal - not chump change. News rules rule continues and we are slaves to every headline that comes out of Japan and other parts of the world.
You've got to really pay attention to the news flow. I don't have the TV on but as I watch the NQ's surge here I have to assume some news came out that is positive.
If you read my blog last night you'll know I thought we would rally today but that I think we will go a lot further down longer term. I think the notion that we'll get a huge move that holds if they get the nuclear situation under control is a very nice fantasy, and maybe it happens, but I remain in the camp that belivees its just a BS stop gap move that will be beaten down.
If you haven't had a chance, read Amanda Ripley's book "When Disaster Strikes" she talks about people dealing with reality, or not talking about it.
Also, keep your eyes on the news about radiation and CA. That would clearly be huge move news if G-d forbid that radiation turns out to be stronger then they are saying.
I'm not really sure that we can go much further then 1300 on the S & P and the Nasdaq looks lower to me still either way.
So, at this point its wait and see what shakes out. Don't overdo the trading lot size and lets see if we can catch a free moves.
My #1 short remains AAPL. If you watched the way it traded today you'll know why, it hasn't been anything but relatively weak in up markets and weaker in weaker market.
RULE!
Michael "waxie" Parness
Saudi King speaks at 7 am EST should move the oil market. I look for a very whippy day, so be careful BOTH ways.
APPL and tech all around is trading horribly, even on a day like today when the DOW smoked it, the Nasdaq could not sustain anything into the close. AAPL fell out of bed and looks VERY heavy here. I think on the next push lower this thing sees close to or below $300. I don't mean the next day we close down, I mean the next sustained move lower. I view AAPL as one of the best shorts on the board at this point.
I know, I know thats blaspheme! How dare I not believe AAPL goes straight up and never stops? Well, pretty easy, look at the way its trading. Anything is possible and when we get into next earnings seasons soon it'll bounce again, if not before, I just see the way its trading and its not trading well at all. It was roughly $5 off its intraday highs by the close even with the DOW pushing toward the days highs. Not a very strong performance.
Having said that, futures flying here afterhours right now, up about 16 pts, from being down about 10 earlier, so a 26 point reversal - not chump change. News rules rule continues and we are slaves to every headline that comes out of Japan and other parts of the world.
You've got to really pay attention to the news flow. I don't have the TV on but as I watch the NQ's surge here I have to assume some news came out that is positive.
If you read my blog last night you'll know I thought we would rally today but that I think we will go a lot further down longer term. I think the notion that we'll get a huge move that holds if they get the nuclear situation under control is a very nice fantasy, and maybe it happens, but I remain in the camp that belivees its just a BS stop gap move that will be beaten down.
If you haven't had a chance, read Amanda Ripley's book "When Disaster Strikes" she talks about people dealing with reality, or not talking about it.
Also, keep your eyes on the news about radiation and CA. That would clearly be huge move news if G-d forbid that radiation turns out to be stronger then they are saying.
I'm not really sure that we can go much further then 1300 on the S & P and the Nasdaq looks lower to me still either way.
So, at this point its wait and see what shakes out. Don't overdo the trading lot size and lets see if we can catch a free moves.
My #1 short remains AAPL. If you watched the way it traded today you'll know why, it hasn't been anything but relatively weak in up markets and weaker in weaker market.
RULE!
Michael "waxie" Parness
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
OK< so here's da dealio...listen up -
The S & P has NOT bottomed. We have NOT flushed out the way we should on this news. We are like deers in headlights, very similar to 2008.
The FED has NOT saved or helped anything, in fact quite the opposite.
The fact that no one politically has stepped up and INSISTED that the FED be held accountable or step back and think about the real and I mean REAL ramifications of their policies is mind boggling. There are so many bright people OTHER then our FED that should have and should be brought in to offer help and instead we have a single minded solution that I don't see possibly helping anything but to try to keep things "in check" so that officials can keep their jobs.
We need a LONG TERM solution. There is no way out of this quagmire quickly. Let's be real with that and let's have an open dialog with the American people that just spills the beans on all. Then we can start on a LONG TERM solution (s) that are based on the needs of the NEXT generation, which will be the quickest fix for THIS generation (US).
Without that, we continue to go down a path of smoke and mirrors. Who has benefited from the stock markets rise other then traders (some) and the wealthy? Has it helped the midddle class at all? Has it created tons of jobs?
NO ONE, NO and NO - we don't need to be brain surgeons to figure that one out.
It seems to me, and I'd never say I know it "all" not even remotely, but it seems to me that when there are crisis situations you need to be open to any and all solutions, not just the one that one or a handful of people bring to the table. It also seems to me that the geopolitical issues that are surfacing around the world are PARTLY (some areas its slightly, and in some its more profound I think) due to the lack of real communication and honesty by the powers that ben. There simply can be no real solutions, other then the bandaids we have until the dialogue is open, until people are fed truths rather then half truths or out and out lies.
The stock market was going to, in my opinion, pull back dramatically no matter what. The crisis in Japan and other parts of the world just made it happen a bit quicker, but I gave a TOP TEN SHORTS class right before this all happened because I felt that way. I'm not patting myself on the back, I'll freely admit that I also said I thought we might get a bounce before that happened based on potential GOOD news. Trading isn't an exact science, all I try to do is make good observations based on historical trends and then make good decisions based on those observations.
What I'm observing is gross general apathy when it comes to reality and a lack of wanting to deal with reality.
When I'm going bad trading, which certainly has happened many times in my career. I have several choices, but usually it boils down to clearing my account out, cutting back on risk and starting fresh. It doesn't involve sitting in denial and continuing to do the same thing over and over again. When I've done that, and I have, then I just hurt myself even more. DENIAL is not a river in Egypt. Making the same mistakes over and over and expecting different results is by definition = INSANITY.
Right now the world is out of whack. Let's be real here and deal with it. Everyone who cares about humanity is and should be concerned with world events and world tragedies. I'm not offering solutions, I'm not in position to do that, but it seems to me that what's going on isn't working and unless I'm completely off then dealing with these things head on is the only way to truly get out of it LONG TERM.
In trading one of the first things we tell clients is "It's a MARATHON not a SPRINT!" That means that as long as I can stay in the game then the game isn't over. As long as I look at the bigger picture then my ups and downs in between are less important because my plan long term SHOULD work. Obviously there aren't any guarantees in trading or life, but at least I put myself in the best position to succeed if I do that.
I took the day off today, day after day of watching horrific images on the news has me a bit worn out and I need to clear my head. I am always confident I can rule the markets, but I can't rule the world. The world impacts me, as it impacts most of us. I'm grateful we're not going through what Japan is right now because it could be us. It could have been us now and it may be us in the future. We're all in this together.
The market WILL get a bounce here soon. It may come tomorrow or it may come next week. It'll happen for a tradeable bounce, but I do not believe we have remotely hit "bottom" and I think any bounce is a dead cat until proven otherwise.
Last night I was watching some pretty smart hedge fund guys talk about buying Japan markets because it was down "so much" and all I could think is - ok, its down a lot, the Nikkei is off about 20+% from last month. That's a HUGE move down. However, if you make that bet then you are betting that the situation won't worsen (let's hope not), but you're also betting on a rapid recovery. I hope that happens but HOPE is a 4 letter word and I just don't see other then trading it (I made money trading the Nikkei LONG yesterday and today and as I write this I'm long it but will probably be out of it by the time you read it!) making a stand until we see what pans out.
The US market on THIS NEWS alone in my opinion should be down a LOT more then it is. It doesn't matter if the Nuclear stuff clears up or not. My best GUESS is it DOES clear up, but my best second guess is we then get a nice tradeable bounce only for reality to set in and the market to then fall again. Look at the markets around the world, the volatility is off the charts everywhere but here, that to me smells like denial.
OK, so there ya go, I think 1250 could hold for now like it did today and the futures are bouncing and so is the Nikkei at the moment as I wrap this up but who knows, I certainly don't, how long that'll last.
I decided yesterday to take today off but when I saw the market gapping up it was like I was salivating. I won't say "unfortunately" though I may feel that on some level, but I stuck to my plan and just ignored what seemed like a total gimme in terms of a gap fade short.
Why? Because LONG TERM I am thinking about the overall plan and if I need to take a day or two off, then that's what I need to do. Besides, I came home and relaxed and felt good and saw the Nikkei gapping down huge and that idea was enough for me to make a small trade and I made nice cashola. See what happens when you clear things out? YOu open the doorway to better things to come.
That's what I believe we need to do with our monetary policies. It's NOT too late, but the longer we waste time on policies that show no empirical evidence of working, the longer it will take to get out of the quagmire.
And getting out of the quagmire has zero to do with whether or not the S & P holds 1250 tomorrow or the next day or week, it has to do with having a LONG TERM/MARATHON solution that will allow us to move forward and feel confident that the plan will pan out positively.
Bottom line, let's not live in denial folks. Even when the Nuclear issue is off the table in Japan that isn't the "all clear" signal for anything other then a tradeable rally. If you look at it as more then that in my opinion you are in denial.
The market will be there today/tomorrow, etc. Let's be LONG TERM peeps and not short term profit oriented in terms of making risky trades and taking unnessary risks for no reason other then being greedy.
G-d bless all and more later. Hope this doesn't offend anyone, I'm just passionate about our country and the world at large and you, my clients and far too often when we get a market souring I've seen clients sit there, deers in headlights, until their accounts are wiped out.
Please don't do that. No panic, but make a PLAN and stick to it...that's what I'm intending to do myself.
RULE and rock on -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
The FED has NOT saved or helped anything, in fact quite the opposite.
The fact that no one politically has stepped up and INSISTED that the FED be held accountable or step back and think about the real and I mean REAL ramifications of their policies is mind boggling. There are so many bright people OTHER then our FED that should have and should be brought in to offer help and instead we have a single minded solution that I don't see possibly helping anything but to try to keep things "in check" so that officials can keep their jobs.
We need a LONG TERM solution. There is no way out of this quagmire quickly. Let's be real with that and let's have an open dialog with the American people that just spills the beans on all. Then we can start on a LONG TERM solution (s) that are based on the needs of the NEXT generation, which will be the quickest fix for THIS generation (US).
Without that, we continue to go down a path of smoke and mirrors. Who has benefited from the stock markets rise other then traders (some) and the wealthy? Has it helped the midddle class at all? Has it created tons of jobs?
NO ONE, NO and NO - we don't need to be brain surgeons to figure that one out.
It seems to me, and I'd never say I know it "all" not even remotely, but it seems to me that when there are crisis situations you need to be open to any and all solutions, not just the one that one or a handful of people bring to the table. It also seems to me that the geopolitical issues that are surfacing around the world are PARTLY (some areas its slightly, and in some its more profound I think) due to the lack of real communication and honesty by the powers that ben. There simply can be no real solutions, other then the bandaids we have until the dialogue is open, until people are fed truths rather then half truths or out and out lies.
The stock market was going to, in my opinion, pull back dramatically no matter what. The crisis in Japan and other parts of the world just made it happen a bit quicker, but I gave a TOP TEN SHORTS class right before this all happened because I felt that way. I'm not patting myself on the back, I'll freely admit that I also said I thought we might get a bounce before that happened based on potential GOOD news. Trading isn't an exact science, all I try to do is make good observations based on historical trends and then make good decisions based on those observations.
What I'm observing is gross general apathy when it comes to reality and a lack of wanting to deal with reality.
When I'm going bad trading, which certainly has happened many times in my career. I have several choices, but usually it boils down to clearing my account out, cutting back on risk and starting fresh. It doesn't involve sitting in denial and continuing to do the same thing over and over again. When I've done that, and I have, then I just hurt myself even more. DENIAL is not a river in Egypt. Making the same mistakes over and over and expecting different results is by definition = INSANITY.
Right now the world is out of whack. Let's be real here and deal with it. Everyone who cares about humanity is and should be concerned with world events and world tragedies. I'm not offering solutions, I'm not in position to do that, but it seems to me that what's going on isn't working and unless I'm completely off then dealing with these things head on is the only way to truly get out of it LONG TERM.
In trading one of the first things we tell clients is "It's a MARATHON not a SPRINT!" That means that as long as I can stay in the game then the game isn't over. As long as I look at the bigger picture then my ups and downs in between are less important because my plan long term SHOULD work. Obviously there aren't any guarantees in trading or life, but at least I put myself in the best position to succeed if I do that.
I took the day off today, day after day of watching horrific images on the news has me a bit worn out and I need to clear my head. I am always confident I can rule the markets, but I can't rule the world. The world impacts me, as it impacts most of us. I'm grateful we're not going through what Japan is right now because it could be us. It could have been us now and it may be us in the future. We're all in this together.
The market WILL get a bounce here soon. It may come tomorrow or it may come next week. It'll happen for a tradeable bounce, but I do not believe we have remotely hit "bottom" and I think any bounce is a dead cat until proven otherwise.
Last night I was watching some pretty smart hedge fund guys talk about buying Japan markets because it was down "so much" and all I could think is - ok, its down a lot, the Nikkei is off about 20+% from last month. That's a HUGE move down. However, if you make that bet then you are betting that the situation won't worsen (let's hope not), but you're also betting on a rapid recovery. I hope that happens but HOPE is a 4 letter word and I just don't see other then trading it (I made money trading the Nikkei LONG yesterday and today and as I write this I'm long it but will probably be out of it by the time you read it!) making a stand until we see what pans out.
The US market on THIS NEWS alone in my opinion should be down a LOT more then it is. It doesn't matter if the Nuclear stuff clears up or not. My best GUESS is it DOES clear up, but my best second guess is we then get a nice tradeable bounce only for reality to set in and the market to then fall again. Look at the markets around the world, the volatility is off the charts everywhere but here, that to me smells like denial.
OK, so there ya go, I think 1250 could hold for now like it did today and the futures are bouncing and so is the Nikkei at the moment as I wrap this up but who knows, I certainly don't, how long that'll last.
I decided yesterday to take today off but when I saw the market gapping up it was like I was salivating. I won't say "unfortunately" though I may feel that on some level, but I stuck to my plan and just ignored what seemed like a total gimme in terms of a gap fade short.
Why? Because LONG TERM I am thinking about the overall plan and if I need to take a day or two off, then that's what I need to do. Besides, I came home and relaxed and felt good and saw the Nikkei gapping down huge and that idea was enough for me to make a small trade and I made nice cashola. See what happens when you clear things out? YOu open the doorway to better things to come.
That's what I believe we need to do with our monetary policies. It's NOT too late, but the longer we waste time on policies that show no empirical evidence of working, the longer it will take to get out of the quagmire.
And getting out of the quagmire has zero to do with whether or not the S & P holds 1250 tomorrow or the next day or week, it has to do with having a LONG TERM/MARATHON solution that will allow us to move forward and feel confident that the plan will pan out positively.
Bottom line, let's not live in denial folks. Even when the Nuclear issue is off the table in Japan that isn't the "all clear" signal for anything other then a tradeable rally. If you look at it as more then that in my opinion you are in denial.
The market will be there today/tomorrow, etc. Let's be LONG TERM peeps and not short term profit oriented in terms of making risky trades and taking unnessary risks for no reason other then being greedy.
G-d bless all and more later. Hope this doesn't offend anyone, I'm just passionate about our country and the world at large and you, my clients and far too often when we get a market souring I've seen clients sit there, deers in headlights, until their accounts are wiped out.
Please don't do that. No panic, but make a PLAN and stick to it...that's what I'm intending to do myself.
RULE and rock on -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
FADE FADE FADE...
Today's fade as a total gimme, it doesn't come much more gift wrapped then that. If only every day were that darn easy.
In meantime it appears that the Nuclear issues are calming down, Japan up 6% early. I think any real bump will set us up for a larger fall ultimately but it'll make a great trade to get there. On upside the obvious target is 1300 if we can get there. Let's see what shakes out and hopefully the indications of calm in Japan keep up.
More soon, stay tuned...short list totally rocking covering on gap down good move, but watch AAPL for key signs of when we really do crack. Tomorrow should be very very interesting...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
In meantime it appears that the Nuclear issues are calming down, Japan up 6% early. I think any real bump will set us up for a larger fall ultimately but it'll make a great trade to get there. On upside the obvious target is 1300 if we can get there. Let's see what shakes out and hopefully the indications of calm in Japan keep up.
More soon, stay tuned...short list totally rocking covering on gap down good move, but watch AAPL for key signs of when we really do crack. Tomorrow should be very very interesting...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE MARKET, and...
It's nearly 5 am and I can't sleep. I should never have turned on CNN to view the tragedy that's unfolded and still unfolding in Japan. My heart and prayers go out to all people(s) affected by this hugely tragic time.
I haven't posted in quite a while, but I was inspired to write a bit more then I typically write on my Facebook page (Michael "Waxie" Parness).
Trading this type of market is hard at times. Anytime you are ruled by news where people are sitting transfixed (as I've been). So, it's amazing watching the futures literally rise and fall directly in line with almost every sentence that comes in relation to what's going on in Japan. I mean, literally every word. They say there's an explosion, market futures tank, then they say they think its contained and the market bounces. The range is insane as well, though great for trading I guess.
So, how do we trade this? Smaller lot sizes, tighter stops and be willing to take losses. Don't end up becoming an investor in something you have no real interest in owning but you are crushed on it so you keep it.
It can be very frustrating as moves are extended, then choppy, then move violently on some news story. Ultimately the market looks very weak and has and instead of dips being bought we have seemingly switched to rallies being sold. As such, that means on any GOOD news we should get a violent reaction/squeeze to the upside, but overall who in their right mind wants to be long for the long haul here this second? Perhaps that will turn out to be the best idea, but I prefer to be patient and wait.
Now, as far as support zones, watch 1250 for sure as a huge support, below that 1225 and then 1200 are the obvious choices. The world right now seems like an almost surreal dangerous place. I don't think ever in our lives or anyones lives have so many "fires" been going at once. There are potential disasters all around us. Thus, the best thing we can do is keep our integrity and our cool heads. It's hard in times like this, we're human, we see these horrible images and we naturally experience a wide range of feelings. I will submit to you that if we pick our spots we have tremendous opportunities here NOW.
So, look at support and resistence levels, don't get caught without a CLEAR plan on any and every trade (I've made that mistake a few times lately myself, it happens) and the problem is that the moves can be so erratic that we get caught off guard. Typically I can just trade on the so-called "fly" but now, in this market? I need to adjust or get snuffed!
Good trading, say a prayer for our fellow comrades in Japan and around the world, we are after all all part of the human race and we all bleed the same.
G-D bless and G-Dspeed to all and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I haven't posted in quite a while, but I was inspired to write a bit more then I typically write on my Facebook page (Michael "Waxie" Parness).
Trading this type of market is hard at times. Anytime you are ruled by news where people are sitting transfixed (as I've been). So, it's amazing watching the futures literally rise and fall directly in line with almost every sentence that comes in relation to what's going on in Japan. I mean, literally every word. They say there's an explosion, market futures tank, then they say they think its contained and the market bounces. The range is insane as well, though great for trading I guess.
So, how do we trade this? Smaller lot sizes, tighter stops and be willing to take losses. Don't end up becoming an investor in something you have no real interest in owning but you are crushed on it so you keep it.
It can be very frustrating as moves are extended, then choppy, then move violently on some news story. Ultimately the market looks very weak and has and instead of dips being bought we have seemingly switched to rallies being sold. As such, that means on any GOOD news we should get a violent reaction/squeeze to the upside, but overall who in their right mind wants to be long for the long haul here this second? Perhaps that will turn out to be the best idea, but I prefer to be patient and wait.
Now, as far as support zones, watch 1250 for sure as a huge support, below that 1225 and then 1200 are the obvious choices. The world right now seems like an almost surreal dangerous place. I don't think ever in our lives or anyones lives have so many "fires" been going at once. There are potential disasters all around us. Thus, the best thing we can do is keep our integrity and our cool heads. It's hard in times like this, we're human, we see these horrible images and we naturally experience a wide range of feelings. I will submit to you that if we pick our spots we have tremendous opportunities here NOW.
So, look at support and resistence levels, don't get caught without a CLEAR plan on any and every trade (I've made that mistake a few times lately myself, it happens) and the problem is that the moves can be so erratic that we get caught off guard. Typically I can just trade on the so-called "fly" but now, in this market? I need to adjust or get snuffed!
Good trading, say a prayer for our fellow comrades in Japan and around the world, we are after all all part of the human race and we all bleed the same.
G-D bless and G-Dspeed to all and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Now what?
I am very torn here, but I feel like we still see 1150 area on S & P before we take any real big downturns, if then. I'm not holding much of anything, so just looking for good entries and opps regardless. Very interesting market here, everything says we should go down, even sentiment to a large extent, and yet we continue to defy gravity. Yes, we were down Friday off the putrid job #s, but down 20 points after being down over 100 when those #s were G-d awful is a pretty big victory for the Bullish camp. Still liking CRM into (not through) those August 19th earnings and would look for an entry on RIG long as I think it can see higher. I don't own any now, but if it dips back down to $50ish I'll probably poke it long. In the meantime, I do own (50) CRM calls and will see what shakes out.
In the meantime, big shoutout to my oldest daughter Joelle who made her acting/singing debut last night and I must say that life is pretty amazing when you watch your youngest daughter ask your oldest for her autograph!
I mean, how much better does it get then that? It's also great when you can block out all the rubbish and BS in the world and in each of our lives and focus on the task at hand. I did this when I was younger and studying some Eastern spiritual principals, just not watch the news or read the paper for a month and you realize how lucky you are. So much to be grateful for. It's a good thing to keep that first and foremost, front and center, the noise is just that - noise and it'll wait.
Wanted to update for those that have donated and hopefully those that will donate to the Haiti project. It's been a total B*t*h getting any help from the local government so we reached out to Sean Penn's people and it looks like there's some movement. I'm very hopeful that the school will be under construction shortly. It's such a mess down there and such chaos. Again, it's pretty cool living the way we do here. I can't imagine how devastating it must be to go through some of the things people around the globe have to put up with at times (or sometimes all the time).
Life is very good indeed.
Off to see night #2 of the best performance in the world going on tonight (yes, I'm a tad biased). My youngest needs to collect a few more autographs from the rest of the cast so we gotta stay.
In the meantime, keep rockin' and let's see what shakes, I'll be on vacation and completely out of commish (and the country) for about 3 weeks to refresh and reload and relax. Yes, that's 3 R's and not 2. Whilst away I plan on being completely cash and not trading. In fact, where we're going for part of it I'm told there's little or no internet baby. So...if I don't get back to ya, it just means I ain't gettin' the message.
I'll be back early September and will catch ya all on the other side...
Keep rulin' and Scott will be here, along with the rest of the gang. If you need to reach someone, feel free to email Scott@trendfund.com, or Ilene@trendfund.com and they will be happy to help.
Thanks for all the early Bday wishes, I'd love to be celebrating my 30th, but that happened a while ago, so I'll settle for #47.
Rock and RULE!
See ya on the other side -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
*If you are interested in donating ANYTHING for the Haiti project, please email; yaffa_holmes@gmail.com and she'll give you info on where to send check or make a wire. YES, 100000000000% of all monies goes directly to charity always. The Trend Fund Foundation is a 501C-3 and has donated a ton of money to various children's causes. I'm very proud of the causes we've supported and beleive that giving is selfish because spiritually you'll get back a whole lot more anyway. Rock on and anything you can give is appreciated it. The 501C-3 makes all donations 100% deductible and we're now able to accept credit card donations. Thanks!
In the meantime, big shoutout to my oldest daughter Joelle who made her acting/singing debut last night and I must say that life is pretty amazing when you watch your youngest daughter ask your oldest for her autograph!
I mean, how much better does it get then that? It's also great when you can block out all the rubbish and BS in the world and in each of our lives and focus on the task at hand. I did this when I was younger and studying some Eastern spiritual principals, just not watch the news or read the paper for a month and you realize how lucky you are. So much to be grateful for. It's a good thing to keep that first and foremost, front and center, the noise is just that - noise and it'll wait.
Wanted to update for those that have donated and hopefully those that will donate to the Haiti project. It's been a total B*t*h getting any help from the local government so we reached out to Sean Penn's people and it looks like there's some movement. I'm very hopeful that the school will be under construction shortly. It's such a mess down there and such chaos. Again, it's pretty cool living the way we do here. I can't imagine how devastating it must be to go through some of the things people around the globe have to put up with at times (or sometimes all the time).
Life is very good indeed.
Off to see night #2 of the best performance in the world going on tonight (yes, I'm a tad biased). My youngest needs to collect a few more autographs from the rest of the cast so we gotta stay.
In the meantime, keep rockin' and let's see what shakes, I'll be on vacation and completely out of commish (and the country) for about 3 weeks to refresh and reload and relax. Yes, that's 3 R's and not 2. Whilst away I plan on being completely cash and not trading. In fact, where we're going for part of it I'm told there's little or no internet baby. So...if I don't get back to ya, it just means I ain't gettin' the message.
I'll be back early September and will catch ya all on the other side...
Keep rulin' and Scott will be here, along with the rest of the gang. If you need to reach someone, feel free to email Scott@trendfund.com, or Ilene@trendfund.com and they will be happy to help.
Thanks for all the early Bday wishes, I'd love to be celebrating my 30th, but that happened a while ago, so I'll settle for #47.
Rock and RULE!
See ya on the other side -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
*If you are interested in donating ANYTHING for the Haiti project, please email; yaffa_holmes@gmail.com and she'll give you info on where to send check or make a wire. YES, 100000000000% of all monies goes directly to charity always. The Trend Fund Foundation is a 501C-3 and has donated a ton of money to various children's causes. I'm very proud of the causes we've supported and beleive that giving is selfish because spiritually you'll get back a whole lot more anyway. Rock on and anything you can give is appreciated it. The 501C-3 makes all donations 100% deductible and we're now able to accept credit card donations. Thanks!
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Jobs,jobs,jobs...
The jobs # tommorrow is all that matters now, babies. I posted on my Facebook page (Michael "Waxie" Parness please join) that I have a sneaky suspicion the #s are going to come out better then expected, maybe much better. Having said that, I obviously have as much info as everyone else. Just seems that with the elections upcoming it will be very good for the sitting party to be able to say we're in a stable recovery, hang in there everyone. Whether that's true, and I hope it is, is besides the point, but the market has rallied very hard to get where we are, even after a couple down days we're still right at the breakout to 1150 or new yearly highs even point if we get a sense that things are actually REALLY getting better.
It should be very interesting then to see what the # is, and then see market reaction. It's impossible to "play" as anything is a guess at this point but if I had to lean, I'd lean LONG and STRONG for sure...
Meanwhile, move should be dynamic and violent either way unless #s come in exactly where they are projected to be, then we should get an initial move and then I suspect a pretty flat bias.
Keep in mind we typically have a positive bias into the FOMC meeting anyway, and thats next week, so again I'd have to lean long, BUT it's a crapshoot til, well,,,til it's not...
Keep rockin' and rollin', more great stuff comin' soon. We're opening the Forex site shortly, and please keep those emails coming to; ilene@trendfund.com to get your FREE 1st newsletter.
Rock and roll, rock and roll...
Michael "Waxie" Parness
It should be very interesting then to see what the # is, and then see market reaction. It's impossible to "play" as anything is a guess at this point but if I had to lean, I'd lean LONG and STRONG for sure...
Meanwhile, move should be dynamic and violent either way unless #s come in exactly where they are projected to be, then we should get an initial move and then I suspect a pretty flat bias.
Keep in mind we typically have a positive bias into the FOMC meeting anyway, and thats next week, so again I'd have to lean long, BUT it's a crapshoot til, well,,,til it's not...
Keep rockin' and rollin', more great stuff comin' soon. We're opening the Forex site shortly, and please keep those emails coming to; ilene@trendfund.com to get your FREE 1st newsletter.
Rock and roll, rock and roll...
Michael "Waxie" Parness
FREE FOREX NEWSLETTER
We're ready to roll out our new FOREX service. If you wish to receive our 1st Newsletter that will introduce our new service, it should be ready to be emailed out in about 10 days.
Please email; ilene@trendfund.com and get put on our email list, the newsletter is 100% free, no credit card necessary, no fuss, no muss.
Over the years we've had a mass amount of clients interested in learning more about trading FOREX (Currency markets) and it's time for us to offer it to you.
So, with that in mind, Scott Littlefield and I are working on our 1st issue of the newsletter.
Just email; ilene@trendfund.com and get on our list for the FREE 1st issue. All we need is a valid email address, your name, address and phone #. No credit card necessary. The idea is to give you an introduction to FOREX and to what we plan on doing from a traders perspective.
Thanks and as always, we look forward to rolling out the BEST service of all FOREX services out there.
Rock on...and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Please email; ilene@trendfund.com and get put on our email list, the newsletter is 100% free, no credit card necessary, no fuss, no muss.
Over the years we've had a mass amount of clients interested in learning more about trading FOREX (Currency markets) and it's time for us to offer it to you.
So, with that in mind, Scott Littlefield and I are working on our 1st issue of the newsletter.
Just email; ilene@trendfund.com and get on our list for the FREE 1st issue. All we need is a valid email address, your name, address and phone #. No credit card necessary. The idea is to give you an introduction to FOREX and to what we plan on doing from a traders perspective.
Thanks and as always, we look forward to rolling out the BEST service of all FOREX services out there.
Rock on...and RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Market continues to plow higher...Workshop in Florida Monday...
Wall of worry is being climbed over at this point. S & P now above 1125, that 1150 market is looking tasty. Interesting split market as Banks and Home Builders continue to lag badly and yet Tech and select issues just plow higher and higher.
Earnings runners still rocking, and if you are picking your spots you are doing pretty darn good. You're doing even better if you had PCLN over earnings (we didn't, fyi - though wish we did!).
DNDN looks higher, this stock reminds me a lot of the former IMCL in that it would dip on "bad" news and then rocket higher and higher until it got bought out. My suspicion is that DNDN gets taken out so I think it has to be on your radar both ways. I own 50 calls on it currently, had 25 into today and added 25 today, for full disclosure sake. So, yes, I did indeed have a very nice day...
I'm doing a "1 on 1" intensive 1 day workshop this coming Monday in West Palm Beach Florida. If you are interested in more info email me and I'll get you details. Email me; waxie@trendfund.com
Let's keep plowing ahead, life is freakin' beautiful babies and it's all GRAND! We're moving ahead on all cylinders and so is the market. Gotta love the summer, I sure do.
Heading out to free some Butterflies with my beutiful daughter. Who'd a thought that a soon-to-be 47 year old 6'4" dude from Queens would be freeing Buttleflies and sharing about it when I was growing up? Not I. And, hence the beauty of life.
We're releasing some soon to be finished DVD's that are brand new shortly, stay tuned. 2010 is turning into a GREAT YEAR, rock on...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Earnings runners still rocking, and if you are picking your spots you are doing pretty darn good. You're doing even better if you had PCLN over earnings (we didn't, fyi - though wish we did!).
DNDN looks higher, this stock reminds me a lot of the former IMCL in that it would dip on "bad" news and then rocket higher and higher until it got bought out. My suspicion is that DNDN gets taken out so I think it has to be on your radar both ways. I own 50 calls on it currently, had 25 into today and added 25 today, for full disclosure sake. So, yes, I did indeed have a very nice day...
I'm doing a "1 on 1" intensive 1 day workshop this coming Monday in West Palm Beach Florida. If you are interested in more info email me and I'll get you details. Email me; waxie@trendfund.com
Let's keep plowing ahead, life is freakin' beautiful babies and it's all GRAND! We're moving ahead on all cylinders and so is the market. Gotta love the summer, I sure do.
Heading out to free some Butterflies with my beutiful daughter. Who'd a thought that a soon-to-be 47 year old 6'4" dude from Queens would be freeing Buttleflies and sharing about it when I was growing up? Not I. And, hence the beauty of life.
We're releasing some soon to be finished DVD's that are brand new shortly, stay tuned. 2010 is turning into a GREAT YEAR, rock on...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Sometimes its better to be lucky then good...
It's easier for me to post on Facebook, so I post there more often, if you wish to follow me just join my fan page it's listed under; Michael "Waxie" Parness
Today was a total chop fest, but the market until it breaks below that recent breakout of about 1110 area is trading like it wants to go higher. We'll see, tomorrow should be a pivot day. FOMC coming up next week, so I suspect we'll chop around and stay around where we are, with an upside top around 1150 on the S & P and downside risk to about 1100, though again more then likely we'll hold that 1110 area unless news that sucks comes down the pike. So, I'd stick to buying the dip.
Today we also got very lucky. I had called CTSH few days ago for a run into earnings and we were up on it, but I had it listed as reporting earnings TODAY AFTER the close so I got a bunch of people thanking me for the play. It's nice to get lucky once in a while. The calls I think went about 200+% and I woke up and was up a nice little ka-chingo, but for the record, I rarely hold over earnings and the general rule is to sell before earnings, which was the plan.
Trading isn't a perfect system and neither is luck, I've had that happen the other way a few times in my career as well. But, its nice when you catch a little luck going your way.
A couple months ago we had DNDN calls and they went BONKERS for us, a HUGE gainer (I think it was about 500% but don't hold me to it) and the FDA approval came early and gave us a lot of the gains. I think we were up about 100% going into that, but much of the gains came after. I remember last year getting cracked on a trade involving a little company, CHTP when the same thing happened, but it went against us. That's why we try to trade using good money management skills and not try to rely too much on "news" events.
I wanted to bring it up because the "norm" plan wise is to not take that trade through earnings, it just so happens that the earnings date was wrongly posted on the calendar.
In the meantime, watch CRM for a run into earnings on the 19th, thats one I own some calls on (25 of them) and think the trend should be higher into earnings. I'm a buye ron pullbacks. I think we entered around $97 and its $101, but regardless if we pull in thats one to keep an eye on.
On August 13th we have a VERY special guest doing a class with us. Stay tuned for more details, but we are making some amazing partnerships and there are soon to be some very major announcements. If you are interested in the class its from 8:30 am EST to 11:00 am EST on Friday, August 13th...stay tuned...email me; waxie@trendfund.com
Rock on...
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Today was a total chop fest, but the market until it breaks below that recent breakout of about 1110 area is trading like it wants to go higher. We'll see, tomorrow should be a pivot day. FOMC coming up next week, so I suspect we'll chop around and stay around where we are, with an upside top around 1150 on the S & P and downside risk to about 1100, though again more then likely we'll hold that 1110 area unless news that sucks comes down the pike. So, I'd stick to buying the dip.
Today we also got very lucky. I had called CTSH few days ago for a run into earnings and we were up on it, but I had it listed as reporting earnings TODAY AFTER the close so I got a bunch of people thanking me for the play. It's nice to get lucky once in a while. The calls I think went about 200+% and I woke up and was up a nice little ka-chingo, but for the record, I rarely hold over earnings and the general rule is to sell before earnings, which was the plan.
Trading isn't a perfect system and neither is luck, I've had that happen the other way a few times in my career as well. But, its nice when you catch a little luck going your way.
A couple months ago we had DNDN calls and they went BONKERS for us, a HUGE gainer (I think it was about 500% but don't hold me to it) and the FDA approval came early and gave us a lot of the gains. I think we were up about 100% going into that, but much of the gains came after. I remember last year getting cracked on a trade involving a little company, CHTP when the same thing happened, but it went against us. That's why we try to trade using good money management skills and not try to rely too much on "news" events.
I wanted to bring it up because the "norm" plan wise is to not take that trade through earnings, it just so happens that the earnings date was wrongly posted on the calendar.
In the meantime, watch CRM for a run into earnings on the 19th, thats one I own some calls on (25 of them) and think the trend should be higher into earnings. I'm a buye ron pullbacks. I think we entered around $97 and its $101, but regardless if we pull in thats one to keep an eye on.
On August 13th we have a VERY special guest doing a class with us. Stay tuned for more details, but we are making some amazing partnerships and there are soon to be some very major announcements. If you are interested in the class its from 8:30 am EST to 11:00 am EST on Friday, August 13th...stay tuned...email me; waxie@trendfund.com
Rock on...
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, July 12, 2010
Earnings Season...
AA started off the 2nd quarter earnings with a beat which "shocked" the street. That's because expectations have been so low that there are so many shorts leaning on the dang stock.
Having said that, it seems unlikely that AA will close much higher then where it was after hours, which was about $11.25, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the stock close red, or close to it.
The market is foward looking and AA and other stocks in that sector have been beat to death (or at least senseless) because of an anticipated worldwide slowdown. China amongst the biggest "alleged" culprit.
The stock futures gapped pretty stoutly after hours and looked headed a lot higher, with Booyahhead proclaiming "its time to get bullish".
Well, as I write this the futures are gapping down about 3 points so the key here will not be whether stocks beat estimates, because that's pretty much a given. The key therefore is how stocks hold up AFTER they beat. Does anyone believe that buying stocks here is the right move? I don't, but I'm not an investor and I don't fool that easy, I hope. And, I don't count, so really, are investors going to take this earnings season seriously enough to jump in, or do they wait for better entry points.
I think we should be looking day to day at stocks that have earnings upcoming in a hit and run trading plan. I am long INTC the last two days, and GE and GOOG and AAPL as well (AAPL a bit longer) and am up on all those positions (they are all options) but I've lightened up on the up moves as I don't want to be the last one holding the bag. I do think GOOG can see $500 into earnings Thursday, but we'll see soon enough. Watch next week earnings for clues to potential movers. I have a couple I'm giving to clients tomorrow after I see how the market reacts to the earnings beat by AA. I think we do get a further extension higher and should see 1100 S & P, but I'm not strong on that opinion at the moment.
That's the beauty of life and the market, everyone has an opinion, but the market is gonna do what it's got to do and we just try to hitch a ride...
See ya on the other side...RULE
Michael "waxie" Parness
Having said that, it seems unlikely that AA will close much higher then where it was after hours, which was about $11.25, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the stock close red, or close to it.
The market is foward looking and AA and other stocks in that sector have been beat to death (or at least senseless) because of an anticipated worldwide slowdown. China amongst the biggest "alleged" culprit.
The stock futures gapped pretty stoutly after hours and looked headed a lot higher, with Booyahhead proclaiming "its time to get bullish".
Well, as I write this the futures are gapping down about 3 points so the key here will not be whether stocks beat estimates, because that's pretty much a given. The key therefore is how stocks hold up AFTER they beat. Does anyone believe that buying stocks here is the right move? I don't, but I'm not an investor and I don't fool that easy, I hope. And, I don't count, so really, are investors going to take this earnings season seriously enough to jump in, or do they wait for better entry points.
I think we should be looking day to day at stocks that have earnings upcoming in a hit and run trading plan. I am long INTC the last two days, and GE and GOOG and AAPL as well (AAPL a bit longer) and am up on all those positions (they are all options) but I've lightened up on the up moves as I don't want to be the last one holding the bag. I do think GOOG can see $500 into earnings Thursday, but we'll see soon enough. Watch next week earnings for clues to potential movers. I have a couple I'm giving to clients tomorrow after I see how the market reacts to the earnings beat by AA. I think we do get a further extension higher and should see 1100 S & P, but I'm not strong on that opinion at the moment.
That's the beauty of life and the market, everyone has an opinion, but the market is gonna do what it's got to do and we just try to hitch a ride...
See ya on the other side...RULE
Michael "waxie" Parness
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Another SWEET day...
I LOVE THIS MARKET...knock on wood (always supersticious) this is a GREAT trading market, the TRENDS are really lining up and we are KILLIN' it...GAP FADE once again worked to perfection as we gapped down very nicely and then rushed higher and then late day rolled over again. Very interesting trading. Caught BP long off the open near $30 and bought a bunch of calls, sold most near the top. Very happy indeed. CSIQ off yesterday's call also did well most of the day til the breakdown. AAPL continues to play ahead, nothing apparently can stop it from assaulting what looks to be $275 area.
With Options Expiration coming up Friday it'll be interesting to see what level they pick to pin. Most expect 1100 to be where we get pinned, which leads me to think we'll do either 1090 (guess 1080 possible with a bigger drawdown but doesn't seem likely) or 1110 or 1120/1125 more likely in my view. I still have to lean long, there just aren't very many sellers unless news strikes and it just doesn't pay to buck the TREND of the market. Natural Gas pulled in a bit, but still looks much MUCH higher to me longer term. I sold my contracts last night near the $5.20 mark if I recall and traded some below $5.00 for that pop back above it. That late day drawdown definately hurt my day a bit, but still a rockin' day nonetheless. I'll take it anytime, baby.
OK, so let's watch where they try to pin us from here Friday on what stock. PIN ACTION is a VERY VERY strong trend and we need to respect it. That IPO tomorrow is interesting to me, I am going to do some research on it tonight and see if it makes sense to trade the dang thing.
On another note, I should have some full audited financials finally to showcase so stay tuned if you are interested.
I have more confidence in my trading right now then I've had in a very long time. I think this market is PRIME trader mode and I think YOU have to take advantage of that while it lasts...
If you're interested in a free trial, or finding out more, email me directly with your thoughts and the heading TRIAL and I will hook you up. In the meantime, more later for all, keep rockin'...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
EMAIL: waxie@trendfund.com
With Options Expiration coming up Friday it'll be interesting to see what level they pick to pin. Most expect 1100 to be where we get pinned, which leads me to think we'll do either 1090 (guess 1080 possible with a bigger drawdown but doesn't seem likely) or 1110 or 1120/1125 more likely in my view. I still have to lean long, there just aren't very many sellers unless news strikes and it just doesn't pay to buck the TREND of the market. Natural Gas pulled in a bit, but still looks much MUCH higher to me longer term. I sold my contracts last night near the $5.20 mark if I recall and traded some below $5.00 for that pop back above it. That late day drawdown definately hurt my day a bit, but still a rockin' day nonetheless. I'll take it anytime, baby.
OK, so let's watch where they try to pin us from here Friday on what stock. PIN ACTION is a VERY VERY strong trend and we need to respect it. That IPO tomorrow is interesting to me, I am going to do some research on it tonight and see if it makes sense to trade the dang thing.
On another note, I should have some full audited financials finally to showcase so stay tuned if you are interested.
I have more confidence in my trading right now then I've had in a very long time. I think this market is PRIME trader mode and I think YOU have to take advantage of that while it lasts...
If you're interested in a free trial, or finding out more, email me directly with your thoughts and the heading TRIAL and I will hook you up. In the meantime, more later for all, keep rockin'...
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
EMAIL: waxie@trendfund.com
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Rockin'...and we should be good to go, baring news...
Stick to the plan, dudes and dudesses and that is BUY THE DIPS, let the rest RIPS...or something like that.
I'm now clearly and cleanly in the overall BULLISH camp, though headline risk is very clear and dangerous, so buyer beware...but overall we should be buying dips here until proven wrong on that call. The market wants to run into this quarters earnings, at least for now. Of course, a couple bad earnings and we could be headed again down, but I get the feeling we ain't tanking so fast.
A gap down Wednesday should be buyable, at lesat for a trade, and energy still looks good here, with $75 support on Oil and my Natural Gas appearing to want to go a lot higher short and long term. If it can hold above $5 it should make its assault on $6...we shall see soon enough, I have some small cap Nat Gas stocks I'm looking at, if I'm ready to discuss you'll know where to find me...
In meantime, if anyone is interested in potentially partnering with me in a new infomercial idea (non-stock related), please email me - waxie@trendfund.com
I think its kick butt. Also, if you have an infomercial idea you'd like to discuss please email me same and we'll see what shakes. All ideas are strictly confidential.
Rock and RULE!!! We are SMOKIN' this market, folks, get on board the train!
www.trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I'm now clearly and cleanly in the overall BULLISH camp, though headline risk is very clear and dangerous, so buyer beware...but overall we should be buying dips here until proven wrong on that call. The market wants to run into this quarters earnings, at least for now. Of course, a couple bad earnings and we could be headed again down, but I get the feeling we ain't tanking so fast.
A gap down Wednesday should be buyable, at lesat for a trade, and energy still looks good here, with $75 support on Oil and my Natural Gas appearing to want to go a lot higher short and long term. If it can hold above $5 it should make its assault on $6...we shall see soon enough, I have some small cap Nat Gas stocks I'm looking at, if I'm ready to discuss you'll know where to find me...
In meantime, if anyone is interested in potentially partnering with me in a new infomercial idea (non-stock related), please email me - waxie@trendfund.com
I think its kick butt. Also, if you have an infomercial idea you'd like to discuss please email me same and we'll see what shakes. All ideas are strictly confidential.
Rock and RULE!!! We are SMOKIN' this market, folks, get on board the train!
www.trendfund.com
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Sunday, June 13, 2010
New week, not same old, same old of recent market activity...perhaps
We're almost a sure thing to see 1100s here on the S & P, the Euro should continue to bounce, with some headline risk, and Natural Gas remains my favorite play by far. Tech looks solid here for a potentially explosive move HIGHER baring bad headline risk that would jeopordize. Yes, if anything I am bullish near term. Tough to be overly bullish or bearish with all the headlines out there, but I think pullbacks are buyable until further notice and breakouts are certainly playable and should remain so. We'll see soon enough...watch housing purchase #s post-tax break. If those #s are not absolutely abysmal we should get a very nice rally. If they are, well, then potential fly in the soup...Office space should be open shortly, if you have an interest to come to NYC and study live with myself and Scott please email me directly; waxie@trendfund.com
Also, remember to take your 2-week trial to www.trendfund.com
www.trendfund.com for a free 2-week trial
*make sure you read terms and conditions obviously before signing up for anything.
More this week for sure, headed off to dreamland, watch 1100, folks, once we hit it it'll be interesting to see if it stops us, or if I am right and we are buyable here...
RULE
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Also, remember to take your 2-week trial to www.trendfund.com
www.trendfund.com for a free 2-week trial
*make sure you read terms and conditions obviously before signing up for anything.
More this week for sure, headed off to dreamland, watch 1100, folks, once we hit it it'll be interesting to see if it stops us, or if I am right and we are buyable here...
RULE
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Link to FREE newsletter*
Sorry, I seem to have posted the link wrong, here is the correct link! Newsletter is online NOW!
https://www.trendfund.com/store/index.cfm?action=item&item_id=92
*Please make sure you cancel if you aren't interested in continuing so you don't get billed inappropriately. This issue with my take on DOW 5000 and Natural Gas $10 is pretty dramatic I believe, so its well worth the read, but just wanted to make that clear. Rock on!!!
https://www.trendfund.com/store/index.cfm?action=item&item_id=92
*Please make sure you cancel if you aren't interested in continuing so you don't get billed inappropriately. This issue with my take on DOW 5000 and Natural Gas $10 is pretty dramatic I believe, so its well worth the read, but just wanted to make that clear. Rock on!!!
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