FROM: MICHAEL PARNESS - Tonight on TREND SUCCESS...
Tonight 7 to 8 pm EST Michael interviews Yankee announcer John Sterling about the coming season in baseball, his career and love 'em or hate 'em, the New York Yankees legacy...
Also, from 9 to 10 pm EST Michael is interviewed by Lisa Chase, the Political Chick about the state of the stock market, the state of the economy and the state of, well, the state!
Tune in and click on at; www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
You can also call in and talk to Michael LIVE by calling in toll free @ 1-877-242-8212
Check it out and hear Michael's riff on everything success related...
ALSO, thank you SO much for everyone that has donated money to the Trend Fund Foundation (501C-3) for our cause of helping to build a school in Haiti. So far we've got over 1/2 our goal of $50,000, keep the donations coming please. We need more help! Send an email to; yaffa.holmes@gmail.com for more info and where to send checks. Any donation is greatly appreciated and will go to a very worthy cause!
Michael Parness
waxie@trendfund.com
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
CARRY TRADE UNWINDING...SEE YA OTHER SIDE OF 10k quickly...plus clarity on my comments yesterday!
I've been talking a lot about the CARRY TRADE to Marketcast and Trendfund.com clients for a while now (and on my radio show on www.chataboutit.com). I told my Marketcast clients on Tuesday that I believed it was now upon us. I do not own a single stock long (other then UUP which is because I think the dollar should continue to rally for a while). Today we had AAPL puts for Option Trader, which frankly has been killin' it with the ideas!
Markets trend higher and over periods of time they usually stutter step to new highs of that particular move over time.
One thing that is historically true is that down moves in the market usually happen a LOT quicker and are more vicious in nature, often leaving investors scarred for life, or broke.
I think the carry trade is basically done. That doesn't mean we won't get a nice oversold bounce sometime next week, cause we probably will at some point, but I would be looking to short it from here. I think the highs of the year are in for a while, 1150 on the S & P looks to be a very tough # from here.
Every stock I can think of worth anything (other then EBAY I think) that has reported earnings this quarter so far, and granted the season just started, has been clobbered off the report, or quickly thereafter, some with devastating moves. GS blew out and is down HUGE from the #s (how do you blow out better then $3 a share above consensus!?). GOOG bamm, JPM, AXP, COF bammo.
It's time to look for opportunities on the short side. For Stock play of the week this week I called SRS, its up 10% in a week for us basically (a little less). And for Option Play of the Week we called VNO puts, which are up over 100% in a week I believe.
I'd be looking at SRS to continue higher, that sector is VERY vulnerable. SKF if it can bust $25 here could see $30s in a jiff. We are now officially oversold, so the bounce might be a better play, or at least safer one. As a trader you can afford to pick your spots and one thing that seperates us making money vs. losing is to be on the right side of the field with the wind to our backs. Since March that side of the field has been the BULL side. I believe we are now on the BEAR side of things and we need to stay there until 1150 is cleanly taken out.
Remember, if you are wrong on a trend move you can only be wrong once, if you are right, and I believe we are, you can be right for a long, long time.
RULE folks, RULE!
CLARITY ON YESTERDAY'S BLOG COMMENTS! I got several emails angry because they felt I was saying that Obama was responsible somehow for the Supreme Court decision on corporate campaigning that I think is a travesty. If it came across that way, I didn't mean to tie the two together. I am NOT a conservative. I'm a liberal and have always been if anything, but I do not consider myself a Republican or Democrat at this point. I am completely independent. I think the parties are antiquated and its unfortunate we don't have any true visionaries that I can see in politics at this point.
The Supreme court decision yesterday can easily be traced to the Bush administration because of his appointees that tipped the scales to the right. I am well aware of that.
My issue these days is that there is little or no real difference between the parties since they both seem self serving to me. I just had to clear the air since I got accused of being like watching FOX Television, which no offense to anyone who differs in their viewpoint as I enjoy hearing everyone's thoughts (for the most part), but I doubt Glen Beck will ever have me on his show unless it was to go after me somehow.
I grew up in NYC and my mother was on and off welfare throughout my childhood at times. We are formed partly by our environment growing up, and it would be tough for me to be considered a conservative. As I've grown up I consider myself somewhat of a fiscal conservative, but whatever. I don't want to politicize this blog, I enjoy stirring up thoughts and provoking discourse and if I can do my share of that then I consider it productive, stocks or otherwise.
Hope that clears up my commentary yesterday. I think its appalling that corporations can now skirt donation limits and laws currently in effect now and basically be for sale to use their bankrolls to try to help shape elections. I'm sorry, elections are not supposed to be for sale. And, yes, I know Mike Bloomberg spent a lot, as have others, and that helped or one could argue secured victory. That's for another blog discussion, they aren't publicly traded people. There needs to be, in my opinion, a separation of corporate policy and political policy.
Have a great weekend and next week is D-day in this market, we shall see if they mount a rally, or we roll over and 9500 next stop...tune in and I'll try to keep you informed!
RULE
WAXIE
Markets trend higher and over periods of time they usually stutter step to new highs of that particular move over time.
One thing that is historically true is that down moves in the market usually happen a LOT quicker and are more vicious in nature, often leaving investors scarred for life, or broke.
I think the carry trade is basically done. That doesn't mean we won't get a nice oversold bounce sometime next week, cause we probably will at some point, but I would be looking to short it from here. I think the highs of the year are in for a while, 1150 on the S & P looks to be a very tough # from here.
Every stock I can think of worth anything (other then EBAY I think) that has reported earnings this quarter so far, and granted the season just started, has been clobbered off the report, or quickly thereafter, some with devastating moves. GS blew out and is down HUGE from the #s (how do you blow out better then $3 a share above consensus!?). GOOG bamm, JPM, AXP, COF bammo.
It's time to look for opportunities on the short side. For Stock play of the week this week I called SRS, its up 10% in a week for us basically (a little less). And for Option Play of the Week we called VNO puts, which are up over 100% in a week I believe.
I'd be looking at SRS to continue higher, that sector is VERY vulnerable. SKF if it can bust $25 here could see $30s in a jiff. We are now officially oversold, so the bounce might be a better play, or at least safer one. As a trader you can afford to pick your spots and one thing that seperates us making money vs. losing is to be on the right side of the field with the wind to our backs. Since March that side of the field has been the BULL side. I believe we are now on the BEAR side of things and we need to stay there until 1150 is cleanly taken out.
Remember, if you are wrong on a trend move you can only be wrong once, if you are right, and I believe we are, you can be right for a long, long time.
RULE folks, RULE!
CLARITY ON YESTERDAY'S BLOG COMMENTS! I got several emails angry because they felt I was saying that Obama was responsible somehow for the Supreme Court decision on corporate campaigning that I think is a travesty. If it came across that way, I didn't mean to tie the two together. I am NOT a conservative. I'm a liberal and have always been if anything, but I do not consider myself a Republican or Democrat at this point. I am completely independent. I think the parties are antiquated and its unfortunate we don't have any true visionaries that I can see in politics at this point.
The Supreme court decision yesterday can easily be traced to the Bush administration because of his appointees that tipped the scales to the right. I am well aware of that.
My issue these days is that there is little or no real difference between the parties since they both seem self serving to me. I just had to clear the air since I got accused of being like watching FOX Television, which no offense to anyone who differs in their viewpoint as I enjoy hearing everyone's thoughts (for the most part), but I doubt Glen Beck will ever have me on his show unless it was to go after me somehow.
I grew up in NYC and my mother was on and off welfare throughout my childhood at times. We are formed partly by our environment growing up, and it would be tough for me to be considered a conservative. As I've grown up I consider myself somewhat of a fiscal conservative, but whatever. I don't want to politicize this blog, I enjoy stirring up thoughts and provoking discourse and if I can do my share of that then I consider it productive, stocks or otherwise.
Hope that clears up my commentary yesterday. I think its appalling that corporations can now skirt donation limits and laws currently in effect now and basically be for sale to use their bankrolls to try to help shape elections. I'm sorry, elections are not supposed to be for sale. And, yes, I know Mike Bloomberg spent a lot, as have others, and that helped or one could argue secured victory. That's for another blog discussion, they aren't publicly traded people. There needs to be, in my opinion, a separation of corporate policy and political policy.
Have a great weekend and next week is D-day in this market, we shall see if they mount a rally, or we roll over and 9500 next stop...tune in and I'll try to keep you informed!
RULE
WAXIE
Thursday, January 21, 2010
It's time to speak out...
I can no longer sit idly by on the sidelines, today's dog and pony show was just too much to bear. Once again we have idle promises and smoke and mirrors. Worst of all it's outrageous, and wrong.
First we have to hear our illustrious President talk about the evil banks and how "if those financial folks (when did a bank become a folk? hmmm) want a fight, I'll give them a fight".
What's wrong with this picture? Aren't these the same evil banks that the US taxpayer bailed out to the tune of 100s of BILLIONS? Aren't these the very same banks that didn't get into trouble due to hedge funds and real derivatives, but rather derivatives that came about by the very same soon-to-be NON banks like GS that now will reap the rewards of not being a bank, when they chose to be one when it was good to do that?
Of course they are, and of course this is all nonsense, total rubbish. I'm sorry, but its a little late to the party to be telling anyone that you'll fight those financial FOLKS. You should have fought them before you bailed them all out and before you helped create another bubble with GS up 150%, MS up 400%, BAC up 400%, C up 200% and the list goes on and on and on, from their bottoms.
This "plan" is nothing more then a blatant attempt to mask a dozen other bad decisions and try to appease main street, or the good people who don't invest in the market, of which over 50% of the country doens't.
Everything has a very big agenda that isn't even cloaked anymore, its all right out there as though we are idiots and don't realize what's going on. Well, we do and I'm tired of it.
Once again the institutions who need the reigning in will benefit from this, making GS and MS and others in that sector even more powerful. It's very scary, indeed.
Item #2 is this Supreme court decision which effectively allows corporations to try to buy elections, and which skirts all the donation laws. For example, if JPM wants O'Bama or anyone for that matter, reelected they could run smear campaigns and instead of only being allowed to donate up to a specific amount, they can now throw the campaign limits out the window and engage in any ads they want.
This is the exact opposite of what we voted in as a nation = CHANGE. Right now the only thing I see is more of the same.
We are run by a few select corporations, and its not good. Not good at all.
RULE
Waxie
First we have to hear our illustrious President talk about the evil banks and how "if those financial folks (when did a bank become a folk? hmmm) want a fight, I'll give them a fight".
What's wrong with this picture? Aren't these the same evil banks that the US taxpayer bailed out to the tune of 100s of BILLIONS? Aren't these the very same banks that didn't get into trouble due to hedge funds and real derivatives, but rather derivatives that came about by the very same soon-to-be NON banks like GS that now will reap the rewards of not being a bank, when they chose to be one when it was good to do that?
Of course they are, and of course this is all nonsense, total rubbish. I'm sorry, but its a little late to the party to be telling anyone that you'll fight those financial FOLKS. You should have fought them before you bailed them all out and before you helped create another bubble with GS up 150%, MS up 400%, BAC up 400%, C up 200% and the list goes on and on and on, from their bottoms.
This "plan" is nothing more then a blatant attempt to mask a dozen other bad decisions and try to appease main street, or the good people who don't invest in the market, of which over 50% of the country doens't.
Everything has a very big agenda that isn't even cloaked anymore, its all right out there as though we are idiots and don't realize what's going on. Well, we do and I'm tired of it.
Once again the institutions who need the reigning in will benefit from this, making GS and MS and others in that sector even more powerful. It's very scary, indeed.
Item #2 is this Supreme court decision which effectively allows corporations to try to buy elections, and which skirts all the donation laws. For example, if JPM wants O'Bama or anyone for that matter, reelected they could run smear campaigns and instead of only being allowed to donate up to a specific amount, they can now throw the campaign limits out the window and engage in any ads they want.
This is the exact opposite of what we voted in as a nation = CHANGE. Right now the only thing I see is more of the same.
We are run by a few select corporations, and its not good. Not good at all.
RULE
Waxie
Monday, January 18, 2010
tonights radio show
Is cancelled, will return next Monday from 7 to 8 pm est
Thanks!
If you want to check out past shows you can log onto:
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
Thanks!
If you want to check out past shows you can log onto:
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
earnings Runners and some special words on Haiti!
_________________________________
Earnings Runner class (and some special words about the situation in Haiti) PLEASE READ:
I'm not crazy about the market here, the 3 big companies to report earnings all blew out estimates and yet traded way down (AA didn't blow out but did beat revenue forcasts but JPM and INTC crushed estimates all around).
While I still expect some opportunities this earnings season, of course. I'd rather take it on a case by case basis. I'd also rather not put my money into a bunch of swing trades here and if I'm not willing to consider putting my money into a trade idea I have then I certainly
wouldn't want to discuss it in a class as something special!
A nice size group signed up for the class which was to be expected after the phenomenal January Effect list success we had, but no one has or will be charged for this Earnings Runner class. . Let's see how things pan out here.
This is a critical juncture for the market and its either going to bust a lot higher, or we could see that correction the bears have been drooling over and praying for. I'd lean toward a correction but either way it should be a volatile bumpy ride.
I don't like 50 50 shots and right now the odds are about that in my opinion.
Stay tuned and RULE!
And, special prayers to the people here and all over who are suffering due to the devastating tragedy to our brothers and sisters of Haiti.
If you haven't given anything remember that we're all in this craxy thing we call life together and when 9/11 happened here nations and people from around the world reached out to help us.
The economy will fluctuate, but we will survive it, its not the end of the world. 100,000s of people dead and without food and shelter is literally earth shattering and unfortunately we are not immune to it potentially striking here either.
Give what you can and send your prayers. My 501C-3 charitable foundation, The Trend Fund Foundation, which usually gives money to causes here will match any donation our clients and my friends (including you) send in up to 30k.
I am looking into ways to perhaps rebuild a school or do something direct rather then just send money that may or may not make it to people suffering. Stay tuned and send in 5 or 10 or 100 dollars via whatever means necessary.
Email me for more info: waxie@trendfund.com
All donations are tax deductible.
+Also, please check out my new weekly online Radio show: Trend Success every Monday 7 to 8 pm EST at:
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
This weeks show we have John Sterling and Ron Darling as guests. John and Ron are Yankee and Mets baseball announcers and we'll be discussing their careers and what it takes to be a success in baseball. Upcoming weeks will feature guests from all walks of life who will give their insights into success. Our soon to be announced calendar will include a special series of "Survival Success" where I have expert guests lined up to talk about surviving and thriving in all walks of life, so check out the show and call in to say hi! If you want to be a guest and can talk about overcoming adversity or success you've had please send me an email and I will get back to you right away.
+Also sign up for our FREE 2 week trial to our world famous Chat room! A 214 dollar value for FREE at: www.trendfund.com
Rule!
Waxie
Earnings Runner class (and some special words about the situation in Haiti) PLEASE READ:
I'm not crazy about the market here, the 3 big companies to report earnings all blew out estimates and yet traded way down (AA didn't blow out but did beat revenue forcasts but JPM and INTC crushed estimates all around).
While I still expect some opportunities this earnings season, of course. I'd rather take it on a case by case basis. I'd also rather not put my money into a bunch of swing trades here and if I'm not willing to consider putting my money into a trade idea I have then I certainly
wouldn't want to discuss it in a class as something special!
A nice size group signed up for the class which was to be expected after the phenomenal January Effect list success we had, but no one has or will be charged for this Earnings Runner class. . Let's see how things pan out here.
This is a critical juncture for the market and its either going to bust a lot higher, or we could see that correction the bears have been drooling over and praying for. I'd lean toward a correction but either way it should be a volatile bumpy ride.
I don't like 50 50 shots and right now the odds are about that in my opinion.
Stay tuned and RULE!
And, special prayers to the people here and all over who are suffering due to the devastating tragedy to our brothers and sisters of Haiti.
If you haven't given anything remember that we're all in this craxy thing we call life together and when 9/11 happened here nations and people from around the world reached out to help us.
The economy will fluctuate, but we will survive it, its not the end of the world. 100,000s of people dead and without food and shelter is literally earth shattering and unfortunately we are not immune to it potentially striking here either.
Give what you can and send your prayers. My 501C-3 charitable foundation, The Trend Fund Foundation, which usually gives money to causes here will match any donation our clients and my friends (including you) send in up to 30k.
I am looking into ways to perhaps rebuild a school or do something direct rather then just send money that may or may not make it to people suffering. Stay tuned and send in 5 or 10 or 100 dollars via whatever means necessary.
Email me for more info: waxie@trendfund.com
All donations are tax deductible.
+Also, please check out my new weekly online Radio show: Trend Success every Monday 7 to 8 pm EST at:
www.chataboutit.com/about/trend-success
This weeks show we have John Sterling and Ron Darling as guests. John and Ron are Yankee and Mets baseball announcers and we'll be discussing their careers and what it takes to be a success in baseball. Upcoming weeks will feature guests from all walks of life who will give their insights into success. Our soon to be announced calendar will include a special series of "Survival Success" where I have expert guests lined up to talk about surviving and thriving in all walks of life, so check out the show and call in to say hi! If you want to be a guest and can talk about overcoming adversity or success you've had please send me an email and I will get back to you right away.
+Also sign up for our FREE 2 week trial to our world famous Chat room! A 214 dollar value for FREE at: www.trendfund.com
Rule!
Waxie
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
2010 = Year of the TRADER!
2009 turned out to be the year of the INVESTOR.
I got news for you, 2010 is gonna be the year of the TRADER!
Look at today's action = 'nuff said.
MONEY FLOW & SECTOR ROTATION is what you need to follow this year.
So far we are totally rocking, the January Effect is INSANE (STEC calls are up a WHOPPING roughly 500%!!!!!) I think the list went 100%, which would be our BEST EVER!
Congrats to those that came along for the ride!!! Very sweet.
Look at today's action for clues about how the year will play out. Tech, which has been HOT of HOT died completely, with AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, et al all DYING hard.
Yet, the market didn't roll over, not in the least. I am long PAL and SWC ($10 calls) and the AGs (POT, IPI) and these sectors are FLYING and probably have some more near term upside.
So, you can't be narrow minded, you need to follow the MONEY FLOW. I believe this year money will be made by doing just that. Tonight's FREE class (email - ilene@trendfund.com if you want the FREE archive link!) I talked about this ad infinitum, and then Scott gave all the technical market levels to watch for.
One of my new year's resolutions this year is to strictly play this market by the TREND book. I think this year in particular TRENDS will really be important. Yes, they always are, but this year I think we play by the book.
I also think that the Dollar will be strong, but it won't kill the market since its a "WEAK STRONG" meaning that as long as the Fed keeps the printing presses on, which they have to, the market should be ok. We'll see, but SECTOR ROTATION AND MONEY FLOW are what you need to watch, period.
Stay tuned, I'll have some really excited ideas soon. I also gave out my STOCK OF THE YEAR in the Free class, so check it out!
Also, right now you can get a 2-week FREE trial to our top Ninja trading plan ($214 value) by simply going to; www.trendfund.com
Sign up for the FREE trial and check it out, we have been ROCKING in a HUGE way!
Thanks for all your support and I look forward to a great 2010.
All my best, on the other side and this one -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com (email me freely)
I got news for you, 2010 is gonna be the year of the TRADER!
Look at today's action = 'nuff said.
MONEY FLOW & SECTOR ROTATION is what you need to follow this year.
So far we are totally rocking, the January Effect is INSANE (STEC calls are up a WHOPPING roughly 500%!!!!!) I think the list went 100%, which would be our BEST EVER!
Congrats to those that came along for the ride!!! Very sweet.
Look at today's action for clues about how the year will play out. Tech, which has been HOT of HOT died completely, with AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, et al all DYING hard.
Yet, the market didn't roll over, not in the least. I am long PAL and SWC ($10 calls) and the AGs (POT, IPI) and these sectors are FLYING and probably have some more near term upside.
So, you can't be narrow minded, you need to follow the MONEY FLOW. I believe this year money will be made by doing just that. Tonight's FREE class (email - ilene@trendfund.com if you want the FREE archive link!) I talked about this ad infinitum, and then Scott gave all the technical market levels to watch for.
One of my new year's resolutions this year is to strictly play this market by the TREND book. I think this year in particular TRENDS will really be important. Yes, they always are, but this year I think we play by the book.
I also think that the Dollar will be strong, but it won't kill the market since its a "WEAK STRONG" meaning that as long as the Fed keeps the printing presses on, which they have to, the market should be ok. We'll see, but SECTOR ROTATION AND MONEY FLOW are what you need to watch, period.
Stay tuned, I'll have some really excited ideas soon. I also gave out my STOCK OF THE YEAR in the Free class, so check it out!
Also, right now you can get a 2-week FREE trial to our top Ninja trading plan ($214 value) by simply going to; www.trendfund.com
Sign up for the FREE trial and check it out, we have been ROCKING in a HUGE way!
Thanks for all your support and I look forward to a great 2010.
All my best, on the other side and this one -
Michael "Waxie" Parness
waxie@trendfund.com (email me freely)
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