Wednesday, April 30, 2008

FOMC and you!

OK, so we ran up into the FOMC, which is the big time trend and then we sold the hell off when the Fed did what everyone thought they would. Typical sell the news scenario. NICE NICE FADE, my favorite trend! Very powerful!

OK, so today should tell what we gonna end the week on. I would look at the open as a fading opp. Remember that next week we usually fade what we do post FOMC the week before. So, if we die into end of the week then next week should be an up week. Conversely, if we rally this week here we should sell off next week.

I think we still could get High of Year before turning seriously down, but we shall see. 13,000 is key, we hit it and then got slammed Wednesday. We'll have to reclaim it and hold it to see 13,200s or higher and hit my targets. If not then we will head back to the 12,500 area in a jiff. Financials still feel VERY heavy here. I am hoping they rally a bit more as they wills et up for a very very sweet short from there. My favs remain - FNM, C, SOV (looks below $5 soon).

Keep on rocking and keep on trending!

FYI - OPTIONS 3 day online seminar is next week. You have time, but I want to send everyone who signs up some free DVDs on OPTIONS!!!

I have a really nice play, I think, for this week. Been on fire, lets see what shakes!

If you are interested in the Options Trader service to get the new play(s), or you want to sign up for the Options 3 day workshop online and 1 day live options trading, please email me directly

See ya on the other side,


Tuesday, April 29, 2008


FOMC day Wednesday (not Tues as is the norm). It's judgement day.I think the Fed does nothing and talks a lot about inflation. Ithink they key on the dollar and making that stronger. I think the market might initially sell off, but then bounce and then iffy. I think you should fade the FOMC, its one of my favorite trends and it is a stellar performer. Market is choppy heading into it. I think regardless of what we do here we're due for a pretty big pause. I would watch tech, though, thats the one place getting a lot of fund money now. GOOG, BIDU, RIMM, AAPL all look higher here. GOOG might want to test $600 near term. I think commodities are gonna get a big time pullback. Oil,I think, falls to $100 area soon. we shall see, not much to report tonight other than we kicked butt again! Options Trader serice is ROCKING! We had FSLR near the LOD and got about $4 on the calls! Sick returnssss!


Sunday, April 27, 2008

Early this week...

FOMC Tuesday. Normally trend is HIGHER into the meeting. We're right dead smack at 1400 on S & P resistence so it'll be interesting. I think we have to lean higher into FOMC. I'm leaning to the Fed doing NOTHING. If they do, I think it sparks a rally. I think the read on that would be that the all clear signal has happened. I think thats a mistake, but that's ok, it don't matter what I think past the day. And, most people feel that the Fed will cut another 25 bp. I won't be surprised whatsoever, just think good shot they don't.

Fed needs to be very careful here. If the market rallies hard, which I think there's a decent shot of, then they are probably setting the market up for a serious fall later on. Election years, though, are very volatile often and obviously the incumbent party would love to be able to say "you see, we fixed the economy!".

I obviously feel that absurd, but again, thats one of those predictions I hope I'm wrong about as I would love nothing more than for the market to go to 15,000 this year. That'd be sweet! Just creates a better trading environment, thank ya very much!

Interesting/volatile earnings this week upcoming;

V, MA, FSLR, AKAM, and others.

FSLR should move $30 or $50 either way off earnings. Remember last quarter? If I recall it went about $70 higher off earnings. They should blow out again, so what then happens? Is it priced in, or does it zoom another $70? Hmm, when you guessing that means you just watch and enjoy the ride!

Meanwhile, I think fading the open Monday should be ok and we'll discuss the FOMC Monday night, stay tuned!


*MANY MANY want to take the Options seminar, and the June LIVE trading seminar. I will be sending an alert on BOTH early this week. If you want the info, please email me ASAP at -

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Friday, April 25, 2008


I said a few weeks ago that although I am definately BEARISH longer term, that I felt that we could get a nice rally now and see the Highs of the Year so far. Well, we are just about there after today, I think about 300 or so points away from such. We should get there, perhaps next week with the FOMC on Tuesday. The consensus is the Fed cuts another 25 bp. I'm not so sure. I think the Fed now is interested in strengthening the dollar and to do that they need to stop making cuts. They could cut 25 bp and say no more, or they could pause now and the dollar will fly short term. I think there's a good shot they do not cut at all. I may short the Euro Monday and have a tight stop into the FOMC so that I can't get hurt if they do cut. I think the risk/reward is good because if they don't cut then the dollar should FLY!

Now, back to the regular markets - they are really buying up the financials here in a counter trend move. That's great, we are smoking all around, the Options Trader service I do is just INSANE. I'm going to tally the last couple weeks next week and post it here if I can, but its really just crushing the markets here. We had another and another and another double this week. Don't hold me to it, but I think I called about 5 100+% winners in the last week or so. Maybe more, its pretty scary! If you played them, congrats, you are simply SMOKIN' CRACKKKKKKKKKKK!

OK, so we have a bunch of people who want to know about the 3-Day ALL OPTIONS min-seminar. Here is potentially the details, I'll send out an email over the weekend to confirm either way, but here are the details, if you are interested in being part of what I think is going to be a spectacular event, then email me directly at -

In this market I think playing Options gives you the best leverage to maximize your profits if you use proper money management. Things are moving fast and furious and in huge chunks and that means leveraging your account with options allows you to play even the highest priced stocks.

This week some of the trades we had (I'm trying to remember them all so it doesn't seem biased as though I am only listing the winners, we did have a loser or two as well, fyi) -

FXI calls = went more than a double (100%+) in two days
SOV puts = went almost a TRIPLE (200%) in two days
V calls = went at least a double here now (100%+) in a few days. We sold 1/2 at the open today near the days peak!
WY calls (called yesterday) = went about 50% in a day so far!
AXP calls sold for a breakeven or very small loss intraday yesterday before earnings
TEX calls sold for small profit or break even intraday before earnings
CMP calls sold for a double plus (100%+) in about a week
YHOO calls still in and down on *Today added the $25 puts to now have a strangle on into the news this weekend*
SOHU calls TODAY went roughly 25% intraday ($6.70 to $8.60) and we sold them at the close. Bought around 11 am, sold end of day near the top!

Now, there's no guarantees in life or trading, but we have been crushing the options market, and next week there are some SERIOUS trades to make. During earnings season stocks move violently both ways, that's the best possible scenario for playing options sucessfully.

Below is the information on the 3-Day Options seminar, I suggest you take advantage of this opportunity. Either way I suggest you sign up immediately for the Options Trader service. I've been calling a TON of options plays and as stated the calls are pretty stout, to say the least!

If you wish to sign up for either one, please email me at -
or go to the site yourself and you can sign up for Options Trader service. Please note that the price will increase on MAY 1st. So, you need to sign up now to be grandfathered into the current price (we'll be sending out a 3 and 6 month offer and an annual membership offer).


Cost is $595 for non-members, $495 for members.

Class will encompass the following;

Every signup will get the Intro to Options DVD and the Advanced Options DVD and the Playing Trends with Options DVD (if that exists)

Day 1 = Intro to options, options strategies and setting up an account to trade

Intermediate Options, options strategies for the short term trader, the medium term trader, and the swing trader

Advanced Options including credit spreads, The "Greeks" and protecting your investments using options

Day 2 = LIVE Q & A session relating to the days trading as it happens. What trades would make good options plays, what wouldn't. Setting up a watchlist of stocks to potential trade with options for day traders, short term/intermediate term traders and swing traders/investors

Day 3 = LIVE TRADING DAY ALL DAY = 8:00 am until 5 pm
with Michael "Waxie" Parness in an exclusive "Trading Room"

They can pay for this and for the NJ seminar and total is $2495.00
Over a $250 savings!

I strongly urge you guys and gals to sign up for these seminars. This market is a great trading market, and I suggest you take advantage of it NOW!

OK, now that I have spent a ton of time selling you on the idea of trading OPTIONS, let's suffice to say that I still think being cash rich here and trading shorter term is the way to be. This rally has some legs and I stick to my call as stated above about us seeing the Highs of the Year more than likely short term. The best thing is, they will overshoot to the upside, they always do and it'll set us up to trade them down for a bit, and then up, and then down, etc. That's what they call TRADING, babies, that's what they call Trading!

RULE and have a GREAT weekend! I'm moving in early May so if I don't post here it's cause I'm dealing with a lot to get everything together the next 3 weeks. I'm sure many of you can relate, it ain't easy moving with 2 little girls and one big boy (me!).

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Ka-chingos for keeps!

That was actually going to be the title of my 1st book (Rule the Freakin' Markets, St.Martin's Press was what it eventually was titled). It's a horrible title, don't ya think? Thankfully my pitch prevailed and an International best seller was born!

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, or back in the chatroom, we are simply CRUSHING THIS MARKET!

FXI calls from 2 days ago = another doubler!

We nailed MBI for $2.00 on a $10.80 stock! We've long the SOV June $7.50 puts from .40 as I've been short that thing for us since nearly $11 and I still stay it sees sub-$5 soon enough. The financials are NOT bottomed, I can't take listening to CNBC every day and every day hearing some complete and utter FOOL say they have and you should buy. ABK today showed why not, once again. STOP IT ALREADY! PLEASE! If you are buying bank stocks here you are so out of your freakin' mind its ridiculous.

You don't want to short them? OK, fine, cool, but don't buy them, pleaseeeeeee! They have a LONG way to go DOWN! Period, end of story. Why in the world and how in the world can anyone honestly think that C is a buy here? I don't care if it goes up, you're nuts to buy it. Whatever, I just really can't take it sometimes listening to the nonsense the pundits put forth and try to justify.

OK, enough, it don't matter, I am sticking to the plan of picking spots and not getting attached to anything either way here. We go up and down like a rollercoaster every day, there's just no reason to hold a lot of positions overnight. It'll be interesting to see what AAPL does off earnings. Frankly, they may buy it back up but I think eventually it'll work itself back down to the $120s or $130s. But, its a cult stock and as such it may see $200s before that happens. I certainly am not getting in front of it until it shows me that it wants to go down for real. For now its the type of stock investors look at as "safe" because obviously its a well run company and you can justify owning it if you are a fund manager.

AMZN #s were putrid. First glance they looked ok, but as always the margins are gonna kill it for now.

Does anyone else but me get tired of hearing what USED TO BE good fund managers have to say? Is it really news that Bill Miller is bullish on banks and has AMZN as one of his top holdings? I mean, when was the last time he was right on anything? If I'm not mistaken the guy said to buy ABK and MBI when they were $15ish. How's he doing? There are a lot of bull market geniuses, trying to pick bottoms and buying ABK and MBI does not impress me, sorry. Having AMZN as a top holding doesn't impress me either. Let's stop looking to guys who have been crushed call wise lately as gurus. Same goes with Abby Joseph. She's wonderful if the market goes straight up, but she's absolutely atrocious when we go down, just as most fund managers are.

And, just as I am when I get too biased one way or another. That's why we try to stay NEUTRAL and view each day as a new opportunity for da Ka-chingos!

Thursday should be interesting. MSFT reports after the close and we hear every day some praise for the company. They should beat handily, but the stock is up a lot the last couple weeks and seems to have a ceiling around $35. I suspect it'll be $32s by the close, so do you really want to take a shot they beat when the upside seems limited? I really don't want it either way, but we get a lot of people asking about holding over earnings. Look at AAPL and AMZN Wednesday for 2 good reasons why its better to pick your spots then take pot shots!

See ya on the other side!


Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Is that all there is, my friend, I thought it'd never end...

OK, so I'm starting to think this overall market really is trash canned sooner rather than later, but we'll see. AAPL earnings are key for the tech sector. I really have no feel for it. Pure guess is AAPL is down post earnings. But, that's PURE guess and I would not play it either way. More than likely its $140s or $200s. If it was closer to options expiration I'd recommend playing a straddle but it's not, so will probably just sit on the sidelines.

Watch the solars here, they are WAY overbought and the fact that FSLR couldn't hold $300s could be very telling if we do pull in. Also, it may or may not mean anything but historically when a sickly hot sector starts getting IPOs the sector is peaking. The AGs have been so hot for so long, could this be the time for a nice pull back? We'll see soon enough indeed.

I'm basically trying to just trade intraday here, its too choppy to start holding a ton of stuff overnight.

Watching Suns Spurs Game 2. I never saw a team that had so much talent look as bad as the Suns do vs. this team. Wow.

Let's trade like we mean it tomorrow and see if we can rock da kasbah!

And, yes, more info on Options and June seminar soon! for more info if you have not sent an email yet.



Monday, April 21, 2008

The WAXIE and TINY SHOWWW coming soon!!!

Almost forgot!

Time is running out for you to sign up for the Waxie & Tiny show in NJ mid-June!

1 week LIVE trading and coaching. And, a money back guarantee to end all money back guarantees!

You are guaranteed to make money, or we'll refund most of your seminar costs!

How's that for putting our money where our mouth's are!

If you have any interest, please email - or and we'll get you some of the info so you can make an informed decision.

In the meantime, happy trading Tuesday!

Below is a link to see some info, or just email us and we'll provide all the info right away!

RULE and see ya live soon!

Ole MOMO and the traders lament...

It's earnings season in a momentum based market, so what do ya do?

Buy the MOMOOOOOOO, baby, buy da momo!

I mentioned AAPL last night here. BIDU, FSLR, and all the metal stocks are FLYING into earnings.

FSLR should see $320s into earnings. We got the V call options today early and we sold 1/3rd already for better than a 25% gain! SUUUUUUWEEET!

If you pick your spots here in this market and forget about the overall market daily gyrations you should do VERY well. Of course you'll do even better if you're in our chat room, so you should join us for a trial run if you haven't already. We are indeed kicking butt, I don't remember when the calls have been hotter than they are now. Well, ok, maybe back in 1999!

This market is a GREAT traders market and it's only going to get BETTER. It's interesting, does anyone think that anyone but traders and a minority of investors are making money in this market? Yeah, if you own the hottest sectors, the Ags, the Solars, yeah, you are rocking. Otherwise you're just treading water or worse more than likely cause for every winner you have you probably have a loser to balance it out.

We called ICO today at $8.40s, it was $9.30s after hours. Stock reports earnings Wednesday after the close it appears, stock looks like it wants to test $10.00 into that, or higher. Cheap coal stock, I had to do ittttttt!

Doubt we hold it over earnings, but it sure looked like a good setup INTO them and we took the trade. The options action on the stock showed some nice volume and again, its in a very hot sector and its a real company and its under $10, you figure it out!

In the meantime let's see what shakes here. The banks are in trouble, folks. Several are going to go under. I still like SOV to see under $5 sooner rather than later. I think best case for it is that it gets same type of take UNDER deal as WM and others have gotten. And, I still love C short to below $10 this year or within the next 12 months latest.

I would not be an investor here. I think we still may get my High of Year target, but we'll chop around now for a while and see what shakes. Market is trying to figure out if we're really at a "bottom" (we're not) or if we're gonna "retest the lows". We won't, we'll break them at some pt this year more than likely. It's so silly, really. Who cares? If you're in the financials you're crushed and if you're in the hot sectors you're elated. This is a split market, folks, it means you have to pick your spots and not get too invested in what you're doing for more than a short period. Sorry, the days of buy and hold are over if you want to make a real return on investment.

Today we have a VERY red hot IPO - IPI, a Potash stock. Booyah talked about it ad infinitum on his show today after hours and thus it'll be even hotter. SOMETIMES when you get a very hot IPO in a very hot sector it marks a near term top. Will it this time? I doubt it, but we'll see. Reality is, I am NOT in the camp that there is a commodity bubble. I think the US stock market is in much more of a bubble, and in fact I would argue that the BANKING sector and BROKER sectors are in a BUBBLE!

A bubble implies overvalued, right? Well, everyone is going to need to eat and build and grow. There are more and more people on the planet, we have shortages everywhere. Sorry to inform but there isn't a commodity bubble. It'll pull back at some pt, but this is like Solient Green. Unless we start to eat dead people, unfortunately there is going to be a very big food problem around the globe. It's amazing to me that no one deals with that issue but they pass a gazillion initiatives to save overpriced homes, many owned by richer than most people, and they all worry so much about the price of oil, but very little is mentioned about a world food shortage!

That's most unfortunate, don't ya think? And, frankly rather sad commentary on our priorities.

If I was in charge?

BAN ethanol production using food products (corn/soy). I'd raise the price of gas to $7 to $10 a gallon NOW and make it less worthwhile for most people unless they absolutely have to drive, to drive.

If the government then wants to really help the people who need the help, they can offer a subsiduary via a gas credit. If there is a big cutback in driving then much less will be used and the Middle Eastern countries that export oil to us would be forced to cut prices.

The gas credit money would not cost taxpayers anything, nor the government. It would come via a kickback from the oil companies/gas companies back to the government. That money could be closely monitored by a REAL non-political oversee committee so that the money doesn't end up in anyone's pocket, other than where it's supposed to go.

There are, in my opinion, a lot of creative ways for the govt to handle these kinds of issues. Yet we sit idly by and watch oil go up every freakin' day and go "oh, we can't do a thing about it, it's all because the dollar is weak!"

Ah, no, sorry, its because you are making it possible for the producing nations to do whatever they want, instead of taking the "power" away from them. The buyer should always name the price, that's how our stock market works, that's how ANY market works. If you make it a lot more expensive to drive then you will have less drivers and you will then have less of a need for the oil (It's oil, not gas, sorry,it's late!)

But, hey, what do I know? Oh, yeah, another benefit is that you'd have less green house gas effects which would help with global warming tremendously which would help in terms of crop growth which in turn would help quality of life.

It's really scary that no one seems to really have a clue. Maybe I don't either, but it would be nice to here someone come up with something outside the box for once.

The single dumbest idea our government has had in the last decade is ETHANOL. It hurts us in so many ways its absurd, yet the government still talks about it at times as though its part of a viable plan to curn oil consumption. All it really does is consume FOOD that could be used to help feed our poor, and help us contribute to the world around us and perhaps go back to truly being the "good guys" that people respect, not fear.

But, hey, I'm just a trader, so I'm sure my ideas are dumber than the door nails that stick me in the head everytime I hear certain things on CNBC or other media.

See ya in the am, let's rock! Futures are DOWN as of now, about 30 pts on the DOW and smaller % wise on Nasdaq. We shall see what we shall seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

Feel free to post comments, folks. I'm lonely!

Sunday, April 20, 2008

OH MONDAY MONDAY, tra la, la di daaaaaa...

So, what now Brown cow? I think we have to assume that the market should hold up reasonably well early this week. There isn't anything mind blowing on tap on any calanders that I can see that should derail us, and with AAPL and MSFT and YHOO on tap tech wise, I mean, does anyone really want to sell AAPL before earnings and risk missing the same $90 move that GOOG had? You have to assume not until proven otherwise. We should be choppy early as the market tries to figure out if the rally is overdone or if we really have "bottomed" near term. I still think we could see Highs of the Year shortly, but I think its unlikely the rally lasts more than that, if it gets there. I'm hoping the financials get another move higher, I'd love to be able to reenter some shorts when FNM is $30s and C is $30 as well. They will get overbought very quickly if they do get another move higher.

I would suggest keeping your powder dry here. I want to be mostly cash so I can jump into and out of positions here. This is a TRADERS MARKET (they usually are) and I want to make sure I'm not overcommitted one way or another and put my capital at risk. Friday was a SICK day, folks! SICK!

And, you all read it here, I NAILED the day. In fact, OPTIONS TRADER service had 3, count 'em THREE more than DOUBLES intraday. Yes, you read that correctly and that's no BS, 3 option calls that more than doubled during the day post the call!


We had a simply SICK day and there was more, too many to list (not really but its late and I can't remember them all) :)

Many people wrote in asing me about what I meant by PIN strike prices on option expiration day. I will do a class on that and other similar type market action shortly, stay tuned! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Options Expiration week and particularly Options Expiration DAY. Its my favorite day of the month by far. If you nail it you can make your whole month, or your whole 3 months in a single day and Friday we NAILED IT!

I will be sending out info on the Options 3-day seminar with 1 of those days a LIVE trading day in a seperate chat room with just me, and you guys and ALL OPTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!

Cost will be $495 for the 3 day online class, Day 1 and Day 2 will be strictly educational and Day 3 will be LIVE TRADING with ONLY options plays.

If you are interested and have not emailed me yet, please do so, I'm not going to teach it to 100 people, so I suggest you email me to reserve your spot. Anyone who has already emailed me, please do NOT, you will be getting some info shortly, stay tuned!!!

Email me @

Also, email me with the heading OPTIONS TRADER if you are interested in signing up for the OPTIONS TRADER service that's been on fire. Same email addy. Thanks!

RULE and let's rock this week, folks,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Options expiration, watch the PIN ACTION...

I'm going to do a class on this shortly, but the simple version is that on OE day, which is today, many stocks get "pinned" at strike prices. Knowing that gives you an EXTREME advantage.
Just keep an eye on GOOG, GS, BIDU, AMZN, AAPL, X, etc. We'll tally it up Monday and see if it pans out.

Friday should be a wild ride, stay tuned!

FYI - to all those who emailed me about the Options 3 day mini-seminar, stay tuned I'll get you the info early next week. If you are still interested, please email me @

In case you missed yesterday's blog, its 3 days ONLY OPTIONS. First 2 days are all classes and discussion on different option plays. It'll have an INTRO. class, Intermediate class and advanced options class and then day 3 will be an ALL DAY only options trading day LIVE with me in a seperate room just for option traders.

email me if you haven't already if you want to join us, the price is listed in yesterdays blog, I belive its $495 or $595 for the 3 days.

GOOLEICIOUS, bye bye...

GOOGLE rules the world!!! Ka-chingo for GOOGLE!' Whateva. ALMOST (ah, like hindsight, always 20/20!) called the $450 GOOG options straddle. Ah, the ones that get away!!! No biggie, though, only a triple plus. I really had zero opinion on GOOG #s. If you put a gun to my head I'd have said long, just cause right now everything going up even when they miss on the notion that we're at a bottom. Maybe, maybe, though I don't buy it. But, meanwhile we got nice big option moves on GS, MA, CMP, MELI and such. VERY nice, Waxie LOVE Options Expiration week! Only regret was selling a bit too soon cause GOOG looks to carry us higher into tomorrows close it appears. I've been saying we could get to a new High of Year shortly and we just may. The joy of trading is you can be bearish and yet still make money from the long side on a day to day basis! Or, even a week to week basis. So, how can YOU profit from GOOG without owning it? Well, I'm going to post some commentary now for you guys. This is the type of stuff we do for our clients day in and day out. We have been KICKING butt and we are going to be offering a FREE TRIAL for ya shortly so you can see for yourself why we are THE BEST, period! I would buy YHOO here. I'm not going to go into it for the hour I usually would, but I'll give you the basics and you can make your own decisions. I think YHOO is a pretty nice long play here, I think its only real downside appears to be if MSFT backs off its offer. I do not see that happening. It could, but I think its unlikely and GOOG is the reason. Here goes;YHOO and GOOG are forming a partnership to fend off MSFT offer of $31 a share for YHOO,which YHOO rejected out of hand. I'm sure you know this.

With GOOG #s today it reaffirms jerry yang's contention that MSFT offered way too little for YHOO at $31 a share.

MSFT when they made the offer got HAMMERED, destroyed and MSFT shareholders have been up in arms.

GOOG's #s does several things -

#1)Reinforces the bull case on online advertising
#2)Justifies MSFT offer for YHOO for both itself and it's shareholders, and the need for MSFT to do something or be crushed in the online ad arena. Also, you probably know this, but GOOG is releasing several initiatives that will directly compete with MSFT, including by all indications its own computer platform to compete with Windows.

There's more, but I have to leave, so suffice to say I think there is zero chance now #1 - the deal gets done between YHOO and MSFT
#2 - it gets done at a minimum of $35 a share in cash

There is just no chance that MSFT can not afford NOT to do the YHOO deal. GOOG literally is putting MSFT long term prospects at risk if they don't in my opinion.

There are several ways to play this, but the "safest" would be to buy YHOO shares and then hedge with the $25 puts, or the $20s if you want to have more share risk. The only question is when a deal gets done.

GOOG is $527 a share after hours. They will potentially go to $550 by tomorrow. I wish I bought some calls, but obviously didn't. Regardless, I think there is a very good opportunity on YHOO here long.

Further still, YHOO reports earnings next week I believe. There is virtually ZERO shot they do not blow out. ZERO. yang is not going to miss, that's absurd. They should blow out, further justifying a deal to MSFT, MSFT shareholders.

MSFT shares should also get a near term lift. I would be a buyer tomorrow at the open depending on where it opens for the same reasons. The stock sold off about 12% since they made the YHOO play.

Also, MSFT had admitted offering YHOO $40 a share in Dec. So, I think it is possible that the # is closer to $40 than $35. I think YHOO is a good buy here for the reasons stated above. We'll see soon enough, but I think if you play it right you should make a nice score without too much risk. See ya tomorrow, folks, see ya tomorro! RULE!

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

RALLY TIMEEEEEE, and starvation...

So, INTC posts pretty poor #s, but as we have discussed lately the market shrugs it off and blasts higher! Ka-chingo!

Here's reality, folks, we probably do get to my new HOY target, but I'm sticking with my overall bearish take longer term. This is certainly a traders market, and nothing else. It's always interesting to me, bullish sentiment is very fragile, both ways. What I mean by that is that on any given news item or comment the market just acts psychotic. That really is why you need to just stick to the TRENDS. When you look at it from a neutral perspective you can see why here. If you take the emotion out of investing/trading then you just do it on automatic and it becomes more about just sticking to a PLAN (Trade your plan, plan your trade), rather than the spur or heat of each moment.

Look at a chart of FNM. The stock was $60s not so long ago, got caught up in the sub prime mess and went all the way down to teens. Then it popped all the way back to $30s, then down to $25 and now $27s after today again. All of this action within a month or so. That's a LOT of volatility. We could point out a 100 with similar price actions. YOU need to be cash rich and flexible so you can take advantage of these mojo moves.

Our OPTION TRADER service has been SMOKING since inception about a year ago. Sick calls all around. SICK. Today we got basically a double on MELI calls, CMP calls we've owned for a few days. We caught GS calls for about 15% intraday today and we caught MA calls, we still own some, for over 55% intraday, and we still own some GOOG calls which look to gap up tomorrow after EBAY's beat. We also got TRA calls which looks good. All in all, a STELLAR day with OPTION TRADER! If you are interested in OPTIONS please email me @ and I'm happy to give you some thoughts on how to get into it in a real way and hopefully make some BIG ka-chingos!

In the meantime, tomorrow it'll be interesting. My sense is, given that it's options expiration week that they will pin either 1350 or 1400 on the S & P (ES). We'll see, but as many of you know, they usually pin nice round #s on stocks and on the indexes. Watch the action closely tomorrow and you'll get some "tells" for where they want to pin stuff.

Stocks that they like to pin are;

ALL the metals (X, PCU, FCX, etc etc)
Ags, etc. Basically anything momentum related you'll find they try to pin at a strike price. AMZN hovered around $75 all day today after popping. RIMM is another one. You could pull up a chart on 100 stocks on Friday and you'll more than likely see the action. This informs our trading and allows us, I feel, to have a HUGE edge. I LOVE options expiration week, I've had some of my best trading days on that day. Hopefully that trend will continue!

In the meantime, I just want to say that it's always sad to me to watch the news and see people suffering. I'm human beyond being a Waxie. We trade stocks here. Most people who trade stocks have more than most people, or more than many at least. Doesn't mean you are rich, just means you can support yourself. These days a lot of the commentary and the stocks we trade are AG stocks, or metal stocks or FOOD stocks and most of the time honestly all I'm thinking about is how I can help my clients make money. That's my job and I feel like we do it better than anyone else out there, bar none. But, watching people fighting for FOOD and WATER. And, we're not talking about Sushi or waiter service, we're talking about ROUGH RICE and WELL WATER. It puts things in perspective, ya know? Be grateful for what you have, it's hard to keep the perspective at times, it is for me when things are rough, and life ain't easy at times for anyone, but if I put things in that perspective then it's all really "ok" at least. At the very least.

Send a little prayer for some food to some people suffering, they can use some trading tips to!

Be safe, and rule!

See ya on the other side,

Michael WAXIE Parness

*If you are interested in the OPTIONS TRADER service, or options in general I am going to hold a 3 day class teaching them top to bottom and the last day will be a LIVE Options trading day (ONLY options trading) with me online. Cost of the 3 day class will be roughly $495. Trust me, it'll be WELL worth your while! Last time we did it EVERYONE said they made money, and I made very nice. I think we had 8 of 9 winners. No guarantees, no promises it'll be as good (or better) but I think it'll be WELL worth your while nonetheless! Email me directly @
As soon as I guage the interest I'll set a class date and such.

Saturday, April 12, 2008


One of the hardest things about trading a Bear market, which we most certainly are, is that the short side tends to sell MUCH faster than the market rises in a bull market. And, the short covering rallies are sharp, on lower volume and happen at a moments notice. So, one can get shaken out of a lot of things if one is not careful, or even turn a sharp winner into a sharp loser.

GE's earnings report could turn out to be a watershed moment in this market. I do not recall GE missing their #s since I've been trading. I have to double check, but they almost always beat by 1 penny and the #s are decent enough to not cause a big selloff on any level. So, Friday's premarket #s are particularly disturbing and discouraging to the bull thesis that this is going to be a short lived recession, or that the bottom is here. The market had been bouncing on the notion that the market always starts rising before we're out of the woods, it anticipates the positives and thus starts to climb so as not to miss the good news that may happen in 6 months or 9 months or even a year later.

I believe that ANY rally here is ultimately doomed to fail. I've said that for a while. I thought that we may get a push to the high of the year, and we still could, but I'm not counting on that. This coming week is going to be SO KEY for a myriad of reasons.



OK, there ya go, 'nuff said! GOOG is going to be key for all the momentum stocks; AAPL, AMZN, etc. IBM is key for MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and the old stallions (dinosaurs). MER is key for the financials, though I don't believe anything they say at this point so anyone thinking that MER is at a bottom really is an idiot as far as I am concerned. How do you reasonably say MER is worth more than $44 a share that it trades at now when there's no shot they will have a profit for the next 2 years? Good luck to anyone buying any broker or bank stock right now, you are out of your freakin' mind, point blank.

This market is topsy turvy but all the buying is on much lighter volume then the selling is. That's a key signal that it is way too early to start buying for the long haul. This is a TRADERS market, period. ANyone investing is gonna get REAMED. Traders are the only ones making money here, so start trading and stop being a fool!

As far as the economy goes, I have to tell you, I see some really dire outcomes here. The Fed is doing everything wrong in my opinion. They can hail Bernanke all they want, they can hail congress for trying to bail out things. They are all WRONG. DEAD wrong and it is setting up the perfect storm in wreaking the entire banking system of our country.

the banks are trading as though they are "dead". The smart money is making money here shorting the banks, not going long them. I'm short SOV since $10.70ish and think it goes OUT OF BUSINESS. I am short MER, and GS as well. I want to be short C and FNM and FRE and SLM and WB and anything finance related. It's not a straight line and I trade in and out of them because I trade them up and down, but I think if you are buying C thinking its a good deal at $24 you are really just putting your hand in the fire. And, you're gonna get burned. There is no such thing as a "bottom" in anything. it doesn't exist, its an idea that people use to comfort themselves at night. Yes, we're at a bottom, it can't go down anymore!

Really? Try telling that to the investors who owned ETYS (Etoys, remember them?), RBAK, EXTR, INSP, even CSCO and MSFT and EBAY and EMC. They still exist but they will NEVER see the highs they once had. It's time for people to wake up, start trading this market, not investing! By trading you cut down the risk and can reap a lot of the reward. You can sleep at night. It's the American way! That's why we live in a free market society!

FYI - The seminar we are hosting is being pushed to JUNE. After thinking about it, I wanted to do it during a Triple Witching Options Expiration week, so June 15th to 20th gives us that opportunity. Historically thats the BEST week to trade the markets and so let's take advantage of that! You can email @ to get more info on the MONEY BACK GUARANTEED seminar in NJ from June 15th to 20th featuring Waxie (me) and Tiny trading LIVE with a chance for you to trade right along with us and we guarantee you'll make the big Ka-chingos or you'll get most of your money BACK - guaranteed! So, there's not much to lose and EVERYTHING to gain!

Again, email me @

Or, find out and sign up for it @

OH, and even more pressing - on THIS MONDAY, April 14th, I'm hosting and launching our 1st SMALL CAP MONSTER STOCK CLASS and newsletter! We get inundated with requests for Small Cap picks, well we are finally launching a Small Cap Monsters Newsletter that will feature weekly and month small cap stock picks, research and entry and exit strategies. This Monday the 14th of April at 4:30 pm is a class where I'll give the first 2 or 3 stocks featured and discuss how to play them and why we like 'em! You'll be the first to have an opportunity to get in on these plays! One of them is under $2.00! And, just of the class I found another small cap stock I think is gonna be a 10 bagger that I'll give in the class first on Monday! That alone is worth the price of admission! Plus, you'll get the newsletter for free as part of the class, so sign up NOW before its too late!

email me at - if you have any qusestions regarding this class! But, its only 2 days away, so get in NOW!

There ya go, banking system is ready to roll over, but we're setting up a new banking system to print money at!



Michael "Waxie" Parness

One more "tip" Watch the solar sector. Once congress approves the tax incentives and passes the bill to support them I think they could get a STEEP selloff after the intial pop. It's already known so should be a buy the rumor, sell the news set up to the nth degree! We'll see soon enough! RULE!

Tuesday, April 08, 2008


OK, so Washington Mutual gets bailed out and everyone's SO happy! I've said for a while that WM is on MY watchlist of banks that I feel could go under. The $7 BIL bailout, believe it or not, doesn't change my view much. Just means it'll take longer, but I still think WM could go under. As it is they diluted the stock so much that the value of WM should be roughly $8s a share at most. The stock had run up roughly 30% on Monday into this supposed good news. I have to say I missed the opportunity to short it at the close because I don't like to be naked on news that I know is coming.

So, since so far nearly every financial institution that's taken on money has had to dilute their stock in a huge way, why would anyone want any piece of that sector? I think you have to be INSANE to buy a banking stock here. I don't care which one it is, you're nuts. So what some are better than others, that does not make them worth a hill a beans! C is going to be under $10 within 12 months, mark it down. And, anyone buying it thinking its a steal here at $23s is fooling themselves. Same thing with the brokers, same thing with the REITS. As usual, I hope I'm wrong!

There was a nice piece on Bloomberg today about the banking crisis. You should all go read it.

The banking system is on the verge of failure. Now maybe we avert a bigger problem, but I think that in the BEST case scenario the banks will have zero dividends and will be trading sole on their PE's. And, since their is likely to be a severe credit crunch for a while, and since they are cutting back on loans anyway, where exactly are they going to be making money from to justify their valuations. Banks don't trade at 25 X's earnings, they trade at 10 X's earnings, or 12 X's earnings. And, we're probably talking about them trading at 30 - 50 X's earnings for the next couple of years at least.

There's simply no way to justify these prices.

In the meantime, the market is going to either really believe we are going to have a short lived recession and break out to yearly highs shortly, or we're going to break back down. This is, truly, make or break time in my opinion. I still think there is a decent shot they bust us higher. I always say that people would rather lose money than risk not making money. Most of us have that instinct, its part of human nature.


Monday was frustrating early on for me. I called the bounce off the open and the move to green. It was a super move and a nice call. But, I had my field narrowed down to two stocks that have been hot lately to play and I picked GOOG over FSLR. Bad move. GOOG never lifted itself out of the hole it was in from the start while FSLR ended up going about $7 off the open! Sometimes it happens, it's part of trading. GOOG had been red hot and you all know I think GOOG is worth a LOT less than what it trades for now, but on a gap down you want the stocks that are gonna move the most and best and GOOG usually fits that bill. Not today!

As I write this we are looking lower futures wise. If we gap down I'll be in there buying again unless news comes. We should get a bounce. From there we'll see where they want to take us, but 12,500 should provide nice support. If we bust below that and hold below it then I think we retest 12,000 again shortly. If we can hold 12,500 then it should set up a higher high near term and perhaps get us that HOY move. I hope so, cause that should set up a very nice fall when we break the yearly LOWS.

It's all about keeping your eye on the bigger picture, folks! All about it.

See ya in the am, keep your focus and keep your powder dry. We're gearing up for a BIG move way or the other!



Monday, April 07, 2008

DISCONNECT, but with optimism...

It's funny, and absurd and actually endearing that we live in a country where optimism and hope do indeed spring eternal. It's hard for me sometimes, believe it or not, to be the guy who punches holes in "hope" as far as the market goes. Some of you may know this, most won't, but when I first started and was one of the first (and only) to call the market's peak in 2000 and was on CNN FN and FOX, etc. saying that it's time to short the market because we are gonna get hammered I got literal death threats. It was pretty bad, in one week I got 4 death threats. I had to go to NYPD Blue and speak to a detective, and I hired a former Detective to help me out. It's not the worst thing that ever happened to me, and frankly its kinda hard to scare me about most things, but having a child in 2001 and still getting them freaked me out a bit, I have to say. Thankfuly that hasn't happened in a long time, and I think we're much more "trained" now that the market can and does go down in a big way at times. So, I'm not the only one saying there is a disconnect right now between the market and reality. The pundits will say that the reason why the market is rallying is because this is going to be a short recession and the Fed's actions are already working and real estate will rebound, and all will be well. Booyah comes on all the time saying that home prices will be higher in a year from now. Sure they will be. I hope they will, like everyone else, but I get paid a lot of money by folks to give them a dose of reality every day so that they can hopefully profit by the market swings that occur each and every day. I'm not paid to be a talking head that says "oh, this is cheap or that is expensive". I give my opinions, sometimes I'm wrong, most of the time I'm right. The problem with the pundits its a conflict of interest, they are paid basically to tell you what to BUY. They aren't paid to tell you what to sell. Booyah is on now telling you that the people shorting the market are evil and that the uptick rule should be reinstated. THAT is the root of the market problems! yeah, ok, sure it is. This from a guy who was a hedge fund guy for years and who shorted stocks all the time. So, why is he on the case of shorts? Well, I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure that out. If the market goes into a prolonged bear market, which I believe it will and is, then the type of show he is on will be VERY difficult to stay on air. My business has gone down due to the market. When you are in the market you always "root" for it to go up, its the best for everyone. I would love for the market to go to 25,000, that would be awesome. I don't see that happening anytime in the next millenium, but I would be very happy if it happened. And, hey, maybe it will. Sometimes it pays to be wrong. My point is that I have to try to be a voice of reason (reality). We've been long lately and caught much of the move higher, but I am definately more bearish than bullish overall and longer term. The economy shows NO signs of getting better. This is, in my opinion, a trading rally in bear market. Unfortunately I can walk the streets of NYC and see store after store shut down. The unemployment #s are horrid an they are 100% getting worse. Washington Mutual (WM) rallied hard today after "good" news. In my view its just another shorting opp and I would love WM to see $16ish so I can reshort the thing. remember, just cause a stock isn't going under doesn't mean its worth $16 a share! On a daily basis we need to pick stocks that will move BOTH ways. We do that better than anyone else out there I believe. We're not always right, but we try to be and we try to be the voice of reason. The best traders have the steadiest hands. Hopefully you're stay steady with us! Tuesday should be pretty choppy. Market is trying to figure out how to push higher but its overbought. I think we could get another push higher, yet I am iffy here. I usually have a strong feeling but here I just want to take it minute by minute and stay nimble. When the market gives us some more guidance there will be a bigger move. It looks like higher here, but we shall see soon enough. Watch V and MA. MA has earnings shortly and V looks ready to pop HIGHER. We shall see! RULE! WAXIE

Friday, April 04, 2008

Up day today no matter the #s?

After yesterday's rally despite horrid economic #s I think we should get a bump today no matter what they #s are. It's actually quite astonishing how we continue to shrug off bad news and power higher under the (potentially) naive belief that we're going to end up getting a huge economic bump with all the Fed initiatives. Perhaps we will, perhaps, but history is not on the markets side, as much as prognosticators would like to pitch as being the case. The bottom line is that the stock market has not moved a single inch in the last DECADE. Wall Street journal the other day called the 2000s the "lost decade". And ,basically what's happened is that we've just had sector rotation, that's all. Look at tech as prime example and you'll see that the market hasn't moved up for sure, and in fact many sectors have moved down and at best sideways. IBM, a DOW bellweather (and tech) hasn't budged in 10 years! EMC is down 80% from its peaks, and DELL, INTC and MSFT and CSCO and dozens of others are less than 1/2 what they were 10 years ago.

The chances that we get this huge move up, no matter what the economy does, seems pretty unlikely. Regardless, this remains a TRADERS market and that's where we and you should be making your money! Forget investing, anyone who knows about making money will tell you you either trade this market, or make money elsewhere. You don't put your money in a wishing well market and hope it goes up. Hope may spring eternal, but I'd rather put my money into something a little more solid!

Futures are up on the thought that the market has bottomed no matter what the #s are. Today that is probably correct, but I still have this ominous feeling...hey, maybe that's the bottom!



Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Waxie & Tiny Show - SEMINAR - Money Back Guarantee!

Here's the link for the upcoming Waxie and Tiny show seminar. I suggest you sign up ASAP, once it sells out, it sells out. You have very little to lose and a LOT to gain! sign up NOW!


Wowsa! The market EXPLODED as we entered the 2nd quarter. I had a feeling we would get a bounce, but have to say I didn't expect that kind of move, there were NO SELLERS anywhere to be found and after initially trying to fade the huge gap up, we went along for the ride and called MON, MOS and several others for VERY nice rides HIGHER! That's why we TRADE and don't invest, on days like today you can catch the entire move investors wait an entire year to make. Think about it, market up 3+% today and down 10% on the year. That's the power of the TREND. SO, what trend is this? THis is the anti-Window Dressing trend, the stocks that were sold in the prior quarter get bought to start the next quarter. We teach this class every seminar (you can buy it in our store, the Trends are your Friends DVD @ If thats the case then this may have a few days to pan out but ultimately should crash and burn again. I would NOT, I repeat NOT be shorting this and trying to pick this off here YET. I think I want to let this one play itself out, it might have a little ways to go on this one. I have a feeling they will not let this go so fast, so I would not try to pick the top on this one. Let's see how it plays out. I am LONG GOOG and GS, two stocks I gave as TOP 5 shorts longer term, so that will tell you how I feel this second. I'm not long much, but I am long here overnight. I do NOT want to short this just yet. I think they can pop us for short term gains. We'll see, but don't be so eager to short here is my call. If we die again we can hop on board, but GS can see $200 and GOOG can see $500 near term. Will they? We'll see, but I wouldn't be shocked. Usually new quarter can bring a lot of fund money in worried they will miss the rally and that we are indeed at a "bottom". Are we? Highly unlikely. By the way, did you see how absurd they were on CNBC? Hehe, they were going nuts and all giddy, it was pretty funny. I think they nervous if market tanks hard enough they are out of a job, so they were clearly giddy. Is that what you call unbiased reporting? Being a freakin' cheerleader? :) See ya tomorrow, folks. Watch for followthrough. I think a gap down tomorrow is a free money buy unless we get bad news. Hard to imagine us tanking hard tomorrow, really doubt it. RULE!